To make the NCAAT

[Sean Miller Fan]

Option A: win out in the regular season and win that 6/11 type game in the ACCT. Can't suffer that Q3 loss in ACCT Round 1.

Option 2: 4-1 with loss to Louisville plus 2-1 in ACCT because that 2nd win would have to be over Duke, Lou, or Cl

Option III: 4-1 with Q2 loss at ND or NC St and 1-1 in ACCT
*****not as confident that only 1 win in ACCT will do. May need 2.*****

In Pitt's favor. Non-con SOS. Its why UVa go in last year and we didn't.

4 San Diego St (wow, gaming again?)
5 UNC
48 Wake
56 Pitt
132 Oklahoma
148 IU
149 Arky
180 KSt
214 Nova
258 SMU
273 Cincy
286 Texas
293 BYU
327 Vandy

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Which option is this? Cause it's the only way in hell they're going.

And a team that is 1-8 against Quad 1 competition doesn't deserve to sniff the tournament.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Which option is this? Cause it's the only way in hell they're going.

And a team that is 1-8 against Quad 1 competition doesn't deserve to sniff the tournament.

They'd have 2 Q1 wins in these scenarios, and normally, I would agree with you. I dont think Pitt should make it in these scenarios but the committee loves non-conference SOS and quality non-conference wins. We beat Ohio State and Dream Team 3. As stupid as it is, that could be enough. See Virginia 2023-24.

 

[HailToPitt1985]

Pitt has to win out and get at least 2 wins in the ACCT to be on the bubble and possibly get a play-in game in Dayton. And other teams ahead of them in NET must lose. Can anyone say that regardless of their final record, Pitt deserves to be in the NCAAT (not a Dayton qualifying game)?

 

[FireballZ]

Option A would be the only scenario of your three where I'd feel relatively confident, although I would still be sweating on Selection Sunday. However, nothing about this team or their propensity for long in-game stretches of poor play tells me that they can win six more in a row (eight total). Amsel being back to the Bosnian Bricklayer last night was very disappointing. To have any shot to win out, I think we need him to be at that Miami-level more often than not. Him and Cummings both.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Pitt has to win out and get at least 2 wins in the ACCT to be on the bubble and possibly get a play-in game in Dayton. And other teams ahead of them in NET must lose. Can anyone say that regardless of their final record, Pitt deserves to be in the NCAAT (not a Dayton qualifying game)?

So of we win out and go 1-1 in the ACCT, we arent even on the bubble and have a 0.0% chance of making it?

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

They'd have 2 Q1 wins in these scenarios, and normally, I would agree with you. I dont think Pitt should make it in these scenarios but the committee loves non-conference SOS and quality non-conference wins. We beat Ohio State and Dream Team 3. As stupid as it is, that could be enough. See Virginia 2023-24.

It might have been one of the things they emphasized last year, but there's nothing that says they have to do the same this year. They'll probably come up with something else, depending on what differentiates the bubble teams from each other.

It's dumb to separate conference/OOC to begin with, because it gives a massive preference to mid-majors. They have to schedule tough in the OOC, because 2/3 of their schedule is a joke. That should be weighted more heavily than an SEC team that plays 2/3 of its schedule in one of the toughest leagues of all time? That's as dumb as it gets.

Quad 1 is a pretty decent representation of the level of competition a team (maybe outside of like the top 4-5 seeds) might face in the tournament. We have shown what would happen if we snuck in. For that reason, I won't spend a single second thinking about what might have been when we get left out.

 

[FireballZ]

So of we win out and go 1-1 in the ACCT, we arent even on the bubble and have a 0.0% chance of making it?

If we finish 6-0 and 1-1 in the ACCT for a 22-11 overall with a NET in the mid/low 40s, it is as bubblicious as it gets. I can't imagine we can get down to #40 like we ended last season with the same 22-11 record.

I'd have no issue if we were passed over in this scenario. I'd have less beef with it this year than last year when we were absolutely jobbed.

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

Also, I am going to provide 3-5 updates per week on what Pitt needs to do to make the Sun Bowl once football season rolls around.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

If we finish 6-0 and 1-1 in the ACCT for a 22-11 overall with a NET in the mid/low 40s, it is as bubblicious as it gets. I can't imagine we can get down to #40 like we ended last season with the same 22-11 record.

I'd have no issue if we were passed over in this scenario. I'd have less beef with it this year than last year when we were absolutely jobbed.

I agree that in that scenario, Pitt has much less of a case than last year but we saw last year how much they emphasized the non-con.

Listen, last year was a royal screw job. We were really good, maybe a Top 15ish team. If we get in this year, it would be based on a technicality (ie the non-con and a little gaming). So I guess they'd cancel out.

 

[MarshallGoldberg]

Not mentioned in this thread is the fact the NCAA brought back recency bias as one the factors they can consider this year, which unfortunately for Pitt they could not in 2024. As of right now, that would hurt us but if in theory we won like 7 of the last 8 in the regular season, it could actually work in our favor.

Still not likely but hey it's hope.

 

[SteelBowl70]

So when we have a great finish, recency bias doesn’t count. That’s so Pitt when we had a sweet 16 team. Seems like we need to be playing in the ACCT final to make it this year.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Not mentioned in this thread is the fact the NCAA brought back recency bias as one the factors they can consider this year, which unfortunately for Pitt they could not in 2024. As of right now, that would hurt us but if in theory we won like 7 of the last 8 in the regular season, it could actually work in our favor.

Still not likely but hey it's hope.

Is it last 10 or last 12? Win out plus 1-1 in ACCT would be either 8-2 or 8-4. Very good for a bubble team

 

[pittjas]

We were not screwed last year. We didn’t do enough, and there were multiple bid stealers.

 

[MarshallGoldberg]

We were not screwed last year. We didn’t do enough, and there were multiple bid stealers.

Based on the criteria they named, we were not. Rough luck.

If you think they should have been allowed to look at recency and also if you think separating out non conference SOS from overall SOS is dumb, as I do, you might have been frustrated.

 

[Chairman Moe]

Maybe just accept an NIT bid if they get one. Not the objective but I am afraid that might be the ceiling for this year's team. My thoughts: we would have to win the ACCT and get an automatic bid - steal one from someone else, a la NC ST last year

 

[TheWerewolfFromTwilight]

We were not screwed last year. We didn’t do enough, and there were multiple bid stealers.

We were screwed in a sense that randomly choosing to weight the non-conference portion of a schedule any different than the conference portion is about the dumbest thing I've ever heard of. An opponent is an opponent.

And the stupidity only multiplies when considering these teams are often comprised of a cornucopia of brand new players these days, which means games in November and December are even less of an accurate representation of who they are at the end.

 

[Sam Young 23]

I don't think it happens but if any of these scenarios happen Pitt does get in. Weak bubble this year

 

[HailToPitt725]

At the very least, we need to finish the regular season 4-1. There’d be no excuse for losing to anyone but Louisville.

1. 11-14 Notre Dame (currently losing 25-50 to SMU), yikes
2. 13-13 Georgia Tech
3. 20-6 Louisville
4. 10-15 NC State
5. 11-15 Boston College

Now, what happens if we do that but lose our first game in the ACC Tournament? Could 20-12 still be enough? That feels like “first four out” to me…

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

At the very least, we need to finish the regular season 4-1. There’d be no excuse for losing to anyone but Louisville.

1. 11-14 Notre Dame (currently losing 25-50 to SMU), yikes
2. 13-13 Georgia Tech
3. 20-6 Louisville
4. 10-15 NC State
5. 11-15 Boston College

Now, what happens if we do that but lose our first game in the ACC Tournament? Could still 20-12 be enough? That feels like “first four out” to me…

I think 2-1 in the ACCT could get us in in that scenario. Definitely 3-1. Depends on bid stealers though too.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

We were screwed in a sense that randomly choosing to weight the non-conference portion of a schedule any different than the conference portion is about the dumbest thing I've ever heard of. An opponent is an opponent.

And the stupidity only multiplies when considering these teams are often comprised of a cornucopia of brand new players these days, which means games in November and December are even less of an accurate representation of who they are at the end.

I am with you. Its a very flawed selection criteria. Last year's Pitt team beats this year's team by 20 but this year's team could get in because we beat WVU and OSU in November and last year's team lost to a Missouri team, who lost one of their best players a week later and tanked. Putting that much emphasis on November is insanely stupid.

 

[FireballZ]

At the very least, we need to finish the regular season 4-1. There’d be no excuse for losing to anyone but Louisville.

1. 11-14 Notre Dame (currently losing 25-50 to SMU), yikes
2. 13-13 Georgia Tech
3. 20-6 Louisville
4. 10-15 NC State
5. 11-15 Boston College

Now, what happens if we do that but lose our first game in the ACC Tournament? Could still 20-12 be enough? That feels like “first four out” to me…

Georgia Tech has won 4 of 5. Three of them were against teams ahead of us.

 

[HailToPitt725]

Georgia Tech has won 4 of 5. Three of them were against teams ahead of us.

True, but we get them at The Pete and any loss to a 13-loss team is a dagger at this point in the season, short of beating Louisville and winning multiple ACC Tournament games.

That’s why I believe there’s no excuse for losing a game like that at home with the season on the line.

 

[FireballZ]

True, but we get them at The Pete and any loss to a 13-loss team is a dagger at this point in the season, short of beating Louisville and winning multiple ACC Tournament games.

That’s why I believe there’s no excuse for losing a game like that at home with the season on the line.

I agree that there should be no excuse in year 7 for Pitt to be losing to a .500 team at home with the season on the line, but it could be excusable because arguably GT is simply a better team than Pitt right now and has been playing as such for more than a month.

 

[HailToPitt725]

I agree that there should be no excuse in year 7 for Pitt to be losing to a .500 team at home with the season on the line, but it could be excusable because arguably GT is simply a better team than Pitt right now and has been playing as such for more than a month.

You’re not wrong. To your point, here’s what worries me about GT (and why it’s such an important game for us),

Let’s say they beat us. The only team with a pulse left on their schedule is Wake Forest, who is prone to choke away regular season games. They’d finish the regular season 18-13 and, if they win a few games in the ACC tournament and get to 20-14, they take a potential bubble spot away from us because they probably have the better wins than us (Clemson, Louisville).

If only we would’ve won a few of those one-possession games…

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

You’re not wrong. To your point, here’s what worries me about GT (and why it’s such an important game for us),

Let’s say they beat us. The only team with a pulse left on their schedule is Wake Forest, who is prone to choke away regular season games. They’d finish the regular season 18-13 and, if they win a few games in the ACC tournament and get to 20-14, they take a potential bubble spot away from us because they probably have the better wins than us (Clemson, Louisville).

If only we would’ve won a few of those one-possession games…

GT's NET is 121 and they have a Q3 and Q4 loss. Their only way in is winning the ACCT. Possibly if they win out, then lose in the ACCCG but get 2 more Q1 wins down there, maybe they have a slight chance at 21-14 but extremely doubtful

 

[HailToPitt725]

GT's NET is 121 and they have a Q3 and Q4 loss. Their only way in is winning the ACCT. Possibly if they win out, then lose in the ACCCG but get 2 more Q1 wins down there, maybe they have a slight chance at 21-14 but extremely doubtful

Is there a website that projects NET rankings based on future results, similar to ESPN’s NFL playoff simulator? That’d be fun to toy with this time of year.

 

[Atilla Cosby]

I agree that in that scenario, Pitt has much less of a case than last year but we saw last year how much they emphasized the non-con.

Listen, last year was a royal screw job. We were really good, maybe a Top 15ish team. If we get in this year, it would be based on a technicality (ie the non-con and a little gaming). So I guess they'd cancel out.

Yes, last year was a hosing of Canadian standards. I also said they were top 15 at the time and very dangerous. Bub was on fire by year end. And Lowe played well with him.

I keep coming back to - what's the point of getting in this year? To maybe win a first round game? Or even worse, lose a play in game? Do recruits/xfers care if you make it and get wasted pretty quickly, vs not making it? They have major issues across the board. Not like they're going to catch fire and go on a run. That was last year's squad.

We won't make noise in the NIT either this year. Last year's team would have had a high chance to have won it.

 

[Gunga_Galunga]

Also, I am going to provide 3-5 updates per week on what Pitt needs to do to make the Sun Bowl once football season rolls around.

Just make sure they are new threads for max effect!

 

[tylersmyth]

Everyone on here knows they will lose to one of these sh!t teams if not multiple, they have done it in the past 2 months and will continue - don't waste your time they aren't a tourney team - the one last year was superior to this team at this point in the season and we saw where they ended up........Cumpies for a couple 1$ drafts on a Wednesday night - Kelli Taylor is probably still sitting there at the bar

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Yes, last year was a hosing of Canadian standards. I also said they were top 15 at the time and very dangerous. Bub was on fire by year end. And Lowe played well with him.

I keep coming back to - what's the point of getting in this year? To maybe win a first round game? Or even worse, lose a play in game? Do recruits/xfers care if you make it and get wasted pretty quickly, vs not making it? They have major issues across the board. Not like they're going to catch fire and go on a run. That was last year's squad.

We won't make noise in the NIT either this year. Last year's team would have had a high chance to have won it.

I think Last year's team would have been favored over all the 7 seeds and higher and maybe some 5 and 6 seeds. A complete hose job. This year's team is completely different. If we do win out and get in, I would compare this year's team to one of those Mountain West teams. Gamed a little bit, had the resume they like, but not really very good

 

[KennyHeisman8]

We were not screwed last year. We didn’t do enough, and there were multiple bid stealers.

If they decide to start taking last 10 games all of a sudden this year, even you would have to admit they got screwed last year

 

[SteelBowl70]

If there’s any justice, maybe Pitt would have their first true Cinderella run to win the ACCT. Pitt has never had a post-season long shot underdog run to claim the automatic bid. The closest was the BET run in 2000 which BC ended in the finals.

Pitt did pull upsets to win the Eastern 8 tourneys in 81 and 82 by upsetting the top seeds but given Pitt was a 3/4 seed, I wouldn’t consider those true Cinderella runs. The only other 2 wins came in 2003 and 2008 when Pitt had very good teams.

Pitt needs a 2005 like Syracuse or 2024 NC State run to truly “leave no doubt”.

 

[FireballZ]

If there’s any justice, maybe Pitt would have their first true Cinderella run to win the ACCT. Pitt has never had a post-season long shot underdog run to claim the automatic bid. The closest was the BET run in 2000 which BC ended in the finals.

Pitt did pull upsets to win the Eastern 8 tourneys in 81 and 82 by upsetting the top seeds but given Pitt was a top 3/4 seed, I wouldn’t consider those true Cinderella runs. The only other 2 wins came in 2003 and 2008 when Pitt had very good teams.

Pitt needs a 2005 like Syracuse or 2024 NC State run to truly “leave no doubt”.

That Cuse team had 5 guys that played in the NBA, plus McNamara and Devendorf. Pitt doesn't have that kind of roster to go on a 3/4 day run. This team absolutely cannot beat anyone with size, strength and toughness.

 

[SteelBowl70]

That Cuse team had 5 guys that played in the NBA, plus McNamara and Devendorf. Pitt doesn't have that kind of roster to go on a 3/4 day run. This team absolutely cannot beat anyone with size, strength and toughness.

Pitt has already shown they can compete with the ACC top teams like Clemson, Louisville and Wake. Given the upsets that can happen (e.g. someone taking out Duke), it’s certainly possible if highly unlikely. NC State proved that last year. That’s why it’s called a Cinderella run.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

If there’s any justice, maybe Pitt would have their first true Cinderella run to win the ACCT. Pitt has never had a post-season long shot underdog run to claim the automatic bid. The closest was the BET run in 2000 which BC ended in the finals.

Pitt did pull upsets to win the Eastern 8 tourneys in 81 and 82 by upsetting the top seeds but given Pitt was a 3/4 seed, I wouldn’t consider those true Cinderella runs. The only other 2 wins came in 2003 and 2008 when Pitt had very good teams.

Pitt needs a 2005 like Syracuse or 2024 NC State run to truly “leave no doubt”.

In 2007, we were a 7 seed in the BET and won 3 in 3 to get to the Final.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Pitt has already shown they can compete with the ACC top teams like Clemson, Louisville and Wake. Given the upsets that can happen, it’s certainly possible if highly unlikely. NC State proved that last year. That’s why it’s called a Cinderella run.

0 chance of beating Duke though. Its so important to avoid them somehow. And if we go 11-9, it's extremely likely we get that 8/9 seed and have to play them in Game 2. Need to go 12-8 to get the 6 or 7 seed. Then you get Lou/Clem in Game 2 and Lou/Clem in Game 3. Those teams are beatable.

 

[SteelBowl70]

In 2007, we were a 7 seed in the BET and won 3 in 3 to get to the Final.

That was a great run but still not close to what NC State did last year. That team was already a round tournament team and didn’t need to win the automatic bid. This team is a much longer shot.

 

[Tvax1]

if we don't win out I am perfectly content to lay it at the feet of this team and HC

order of blame due to what looks like lack of effort and focus and selfishness and talent and leadership and etc. as follows:
Capel
Cam
Dunn
Lowe
GDG
Ish
Zack(almost shouldn't be on this list)

at this point this team and its leader have earned nothing and while they can earn it in the remaining games I have zero problem saying they have only themselves and their play along with the leader to blame

I will watch every game and scream and curse like an idiot because Pitt MBB is my favorite entertainment but unfortunately the anticipation for next year and any real expectations and hopes are diminished finally here in year 7 with JC......and will be for the foreseeable

 

[FireballZ]

0 chance of beating Duke though. Its so important to avoid them somehow. And if we go 11-9, it's extremely likely we get that 8/9 seed and have to play them in Game 2. Need to go 12-8 to get the 6 or 7 seed. Then you get Lou/Clem in Game 2 and Lou/Clem in Game 3. Those teams are beatable.

I don't think we can beat Clemson or Louisville twice in a row on back-to-back days.