Tremendous in depth article on much of a crapshoot a 1st rd QB is

[ChiefJusticeMarshall]

Unfortunately it is on ESPN insider. But for all those folks (Stiller fans) bitter over Pickett, he really only had a 20% chance to be a decent NFL QB if you go through the numbers throught the years. That is 1 in 5.

Barnwell: Drafting QBs is hard! Why history tells us two 2024 first-round picks likely will be busts

Quarterbacks are more valuable than ever, which has changed their status in the NFL draft. Here's what history can tell us about the 2024 class.

www.espn.com

 

[lilspainishflea]

Unfortunately it is on ESPN insider. But for all those folks (Stiller fans) bitter over Pickett, he really only had a 20% chance to be a decent NFL QB if you go through the numbers throught the years. That is 1 in 5.

Barnwell: Drafting QBs is hard! Why history tells us two 2024 first-round picks likely will be busts

Quarterbacks are more valuable than ever, which has changed their status in the NFL draft. Here's what history can tell us about the 2024 class.

www.espn.com

For all the hate that Pickett gets online about being a terrible prospect, I follow some smart analysts who had him about median for the mix of experience and productivity that typically leads to high level NFL success as a 1st round QB and he was really close to hitting the numbers where such an outcome was 50/50. I think you can say that their modeling is not perfect because if that's the case, then Pickett would have gone a lot higher. And that's fair. But their general point is that below where Pickett was at, basically no one has ever succeeded (except Josh Allen and maybe Jordan Love).

I still maintain he was an appropriate bet to take at pick 20 and the Steelers squandered him by solely deploying him in a terrible, unfriendly to all QBs, system.

 

[pittdan77]

Wonder what the odds are of taking a franchise player in the first round at any other position?

 

[pittbb80]

Wonder what the odds are of taking a franchise player in the first round at any other position?

Depends on the definition of franchise player. If its a consistent all pro/HOF, then probably not much higher I suppose.

 

[pittdan77]

Depends on the definition of franchise player. If its a consistent all pro/HOF, then probably not much higher I suppose.

Maybe I don't understand what "decent" is supposed to mean. Especially when it comes to QB's. I mean, 20% sounds like a pretty good bet in that context.