Vegas has Pitt at 6.5 wins
- Thread starter TIGER-PAUL
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weak, take the over. we go 7-5 in regular season, that's under performing. 6-6 is borderline disaster.. if this includes bowl games, that's a flat out insult..
yep, outsiders giving way way too much thought to the degradation of Pitt's offense based on the departure of a 70% James Conner and Peterman. Offense is gonna be great again and the defense cannot be worse...how does one get in on this action from here in PA?
the key I believe, to us getting to the 8+ win level, is having one rb overperform to the level of being a 1200+ back. I love, LOVE the idea of a Running back by committee but honestly, I just don't see it happening here. on paper, its a great idea but in reality, it just doesn't seem to come to fruition..
I think our passing game will be good, not great, not enough to carry us to a good season but good, IF we get a good run game. Our o-line is there, we just need that one back to be "the guy." 1200 sounds like a lot, and it is. just need ollison, or moss, or one of the two incoming freshman to outshine the others and be that guy. a tall task no doubt.
EDIT: 1200 sounds nearly impossible. I may have to lower the bar to 1k, especially with guys like Henderson and ffrench getting some of these sweep/end around carries.
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I think we have a few good backs. just need one of them to be "the guy" all season long. We need one specific back to outperform the others. I'd love to have 3 backs get 500 yards each but I just don't see it happening. I'd love to have 2 backs get 700 each but again, very unlikely.
The idea of having a 1-2 punch would be sooo fun but I think duzzi is a guy that just likes to see one back get the bulk. not sure about Watson's past, maybe he is different. I just think in reality, one back gets into the zone, you cant pull him out and get a true 50/50 or even a 60/40.
I generally believe betting on pitt is a bad idea, but 6.5 is very enticing.
Looking at the odds, it almost looks like that sports book is setting a skewed O/U and then making the odds kind of crappy for the obvious choice... in our case the over.
Our offense is going to take a bigger step back than many on this board believe. The D still has a lot to prove.
It's slightly juiced to the over at -120. Bovada is at 7.5, so if you have an account there you can bet under 7.5 there and over 6.5 at the Southpoint and win both if Pitt goes 7-5.
Vegas, why do you believe the offense will take a big step back compared with last year? Conner was playing at less than 100% for the majority of the year (by his own admission), Ollison and Moss are both proven commodities, Aston should only be better, Weah, Tipton, Ffrench, Henderson, etc. are all back. The unknowns are the new wrinkles with a QB who has a stronger arm with less mobility (if Browne wins the job), and a new OC who has been proven a great QB coach with multiple programs.
Not trying to be adversarial; I'm truly curious why the offense would take a big step back compared with last year.
It will be interesting to see how the RB situation evolves throughout the weeks leading up to the season, as well as the early OOC games. I think you're right concerning the use of one RB to carry the majority of the load this year. Next year, I believe that focus changes with the emergence of both Davis and Sibley, who provide very different skill sets at the line of scrimmage, but possess incredible speed in the open field.
I think a new OC means the jet sweep will not be as effective or as utilized. Losing nate will be a drop in talent and JC wasn't great in beginning but last 1/2 of season, was unstoppable. I like ollison but him or Moss aren't even in same universe as JC.
I do believe our WRs are better, our line will be decent but definitely not as good as with Biz and DoJo. to expect the offense to be as effective as last year is extremely wishful thinking. I do believe that the drop off on offense could be made up with our defensive improvement though.
Agreed with respect to retaining the point production from last year, which may have caused some of the issues on defense to rear their ugly head later in games (UNC and SYR).
Ollison proved that he can be a 1,000 yard back if provided with the opportunity. I also believe Ollison is a much fitter and smarter athlete now than he was in 2015 when he put up great numbers as a freshman. Moss seems like a player who gets stronger as he received more touches, which will need to be the case moving forward. With that said, I don't believe these guys are the player JC was toward the end of the year.
I'm not sold that the jet sweep won't be used effectively with the return of Bookser and O'Neill paving the way for big gains by Henderson, Whitehead, etc.
The WRs, especially guys like Weah who transformed from a track athlete with stone hands to a viable threat in the passing game, will continue to develop and grow as a group.
Forcing turnovers will be key on defense. The secondary and linebackers need to step up and turn the heads to find the ball. Having a healthy Whitehead, Hamlin, Maddox, and significant contributions from Miller, Ford, Jackson, etc. should help.
The LB corps still scares the hell out of me; especially against teams like PSU who love to run Barkley on the wheel routes. Having a healthy Zeise should be an immediate upgrade. Brightwell had some great moments as well. Outside of that, that area of the field will be interesting.
Actually I feel you answered your own "curiosity" when you mentioned both the new QB and a new OC. Both of those changes are huge question marks. In fact, far greater question marks than replacing Connor, WR's, etc. As you said, these are "unknowns." Given the fact that they're unknowns accounts for why Vegas would have questions about our offense. These two unknowns are, IMO related to the two biggest concerns we have with next year's offense.
I can readily see why we're getting this type of prediction from Vegas, whlie on the
other hand I can see the possibility of these "unknowns" at QB and OC as being possible
areas of strength as you pointed out. I'm hoping you're right and Vegas is wrong.
Can go either way, 6-6, 7-5, 8-4, 9-3, and 10-2 depending on Coaching and Players Executions as they are rebuilding with Third OC and still need a QB coming from Recruiting not Graduate Transfers Band Aids since 2013?
This is Coach Pat & Staff 3rd Year and more of his Players and Recruits than Chryst?
Now we shall see how it will play out with 3 Early Tough Games in First 3 of 4 games PSU, OKST, & GT, and last Tough Coastal Games with VT, UNC and MIAMI and CUSE, Duke, NCS, and Virginia will be improved in between?
I've posted this before but will mention it again.
Let's look at the offense broken down into position groups
OC.....Watson will be a downgrade from Canada.
QB.....Browne will be a downgrade from Nate
OL.....this years unit as a whole will be a downgrade from last year. We lost DJ and Bis, a ton of games played. Bookser will probably be suspended several games considering our Admin. Even with some of our experience coming back, they are a downgrade compared to DJ and Biz.
RB's....You mentioned Ollison and Moss are proven commodities. I'm not completely on board with that thought. Even with JC at less than 100%, he was better last year than Moss and Ollison will be for this year. Moss is far from proven. Look at what he's actually done on the football field. His production is not great. Sure, he missed time to injury last year. It all factors in, health is a skill. Same goes for Hamlin on the D side. It doesn't matter how much talent you have if you cannot get on the field. Back to the other back in Ollison, sure he had a fantastic freshman year(aside from some very costly fumbles) but it's beyond obvious that he's not a favorite with this staff. They are seeing something they don't like. We as Pitt fans have been spoiled with good RB's. But that doesn't mean we are guaranteed to have an excellent running game this year. Now on the plus side, RB is a position that is friendly to freshman making an impact so its possible that one of our two freshman step up and provide production this season.
TE's.....I think we take a big step back this season. First, were thin this year at the position. Second, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Clarke gets beaten out by our freshman(Reaves) sometime early to mid season. Hopefully with Reaves, with his weight he doesn't outgrow the TE position and land on the OL.
WR's....Weah went from zero catches in two years to having a good season last year. He will have a target on his back this year. We need other WR's to step up. Yes, we have Henderson. He is very good at returning kicks and running jet sweeps. But he actually needs to get much better at the WR position in the passing game. Look up his stats in this department, not great. Awhile back Peak mentioned this in one of his previous podcasts.
At the end of the day, we put up serious numbers on the offensive side of the ball last year and i think that many on this board are seriously expecting only a very small correction, if at all to last year.
I'm not saying its a 100% given we fall under the total of 6.5 wins that vegas has put out there. Sometimes Vegas is wrong but overall they know their stuff. My original point was about the offense but Narduzzi and his D have A LOT to prove. Sounds to me like Vegas agrees. When Vegas hangs a season total, they are looking at every aspect of the team. Narduzzi needs to prove he can stop "spread" offenses that were not as prevalent in the Big 10 when he was a DC.
QUOTE="VAPITTALUM, post: 1918014, member: 13482"]Vegas, why do you believe the offense will take a big step back compared with last year? Conner was playing at less than 100% for the majority of the year (by his own admission), Ollison and Moss are both proven commodities, Aston should only be better, Weah, Tipton, Ffrench, Henderson, etc. are all back. The unknowns are the new wrinkles with a QB who has a stronger arm with less mobility (if Browne wins the job), and a new OC who has been proven a great QB coach with multiple programs.
Not trying to be adversarial; I'm truly curious why the offense would take a big step back compared with last year.[/QUOTE]
Let's look at the offense broken down into position groups
OC.....Watson will be a downgrade from Canada.
QB.....Browne will be a downgrade from Nate
OL.....this years unit as a whole will be a downgrade from last year. We lost DJ and Bis, a ton of games played. Bookser will probably be suspended several games considering our Admin. Even with some of our experience coming back, they are a downgrade compared to DJ and Biz.
RB's....You mentioned Ollison and Moss are proven commodities. I'm not completely on board with that thought. Even with JC at less than 100%, he was better last year than Moss and Ollison will be for this year. Moss is far from proven. Look at what he's actually done on the football field. His production is not great. Sure, he missed time to injury last year. It all factors in, health is a skill. Same goes for Hamlin on the D side. It doesn't matter how much talent you have if you cannot get on the field. Back to the other back in Ollison, sure he had a fantastic freshman year(aside from some very costly fumbles) but it's beyond obvious that he's not a favorite with this staff. They are seeing something they don't like. We as Pitt fans have been spoiled with good RB's. But that doesn't mean we are guaranteed to have an excellent running game this year. Now on the plus side, RB is a position that is friendly to freshman making an impact so its possible that one of our two freshman step up and provide production this season.
TE's.....I think we take a big step back this season. First, were thin this year at the position. Second, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Clarke gets beaten out by our freshman(Reaves) sometime early to mid season. Hopefully with Reaves, with his weight he doesn't outgrow the TE position and land on the OL.
WR's....Weah went from zero catches in two years to having a good season last year. He will have a target on his back this year. We need other WR's to step up. Yes, we have Henderson. He is very good at returning kicks and running jet sweeps. But he actually needs to get much better at the WR position in the passing game. Look up his stats in this department, not great. Awhile back Peak mentioned this in one of his previous podcasts.
At the end of the day, we put up serious numbers on the offensive side of the ball last year and i think that many on this board are seriously expecting only a very small correction, if at all to last year.
I'm not saying its a 100% given we fall under the total of 6.5 wins that vegas has put out there. Sometimes Vegas is wrong but overall they know their stuff. My original point was about the offense but Narduzzi and his D have A LOT to prove. Sounds to me like Vegas agrees. When Vegas hangs a season total, they are looking at every aspect of the team. Narduzzi needs to prove he can stop "spread" offenses that were not as prevalent in the Big 10 when he was a DC.
QUOTE="VAPITTALUM, post: 1918014, member: 13482"]Vegas, why do you believe the offense will take a big step back compared with last year? Conner was playing at less than 100% for the majority of the year (by his own admission), Ollison and Moss are both proven commodities, Aston should only be better, Weah, Tipton, Ffrench, Henderson, etc. are all back. The unknowns are the new wrinkles with a QB who has a stronger arm with less mobility (if Browne wins the job), and a new OC who has been proven a great QB coach with multiple programs.
Not trying to be adversarial; I'm truly curious why the offense would take a big step back compared with last year.[/QUOTE]
Our season basically hinges on games 2-4.
@PSU, Ok St, @GT might be one of the toughest stretches in all of college football. GT returns 16 or their 22 starters from last year's 9-4 team, and a week to prepare for them is very tough. The other two are both top 10-15 teams.
Here's hoping we don't start 1-3.
@PSU, Ok St, @GT might be one of the toughest stretches in all of college football. GT returns 16 or their 22 starters from last year's 9-4 team, and a week to prepare for them is very tough. The other two are both top 10-15 teams.
Here's hoping we don't start 1-3.
Given what talent was lost (take a look at the NFL rosters), a "down" year wouldn't be difficult to imagine.
schedule is too easy for a program like us to lose 5-6 games..
EASY WINS:
YSU, Rice, Cuse, Duke, Virginia. right there, 5 wins. yeah cuse and uva aren't "gimmes" but they are below avg programs. if you lose to either of those teams, it's a bad BAD loss.
so to get to 8 wins, you have to figure out how to go 3 and 4 amongst good but far from great teams like NC state, unc, va tech, Miami and ga tech.. I do admit that psu and ok state are top 10 programs, so even if you lose those 2, you should still be able to go 3-2 against the 5 teams below. Lets not act like NC state, unc and va tech are world beaters, these are still teams that might reach top 25 status, maybe..
if pitt cant go .500% against avg P5 programs, we are not nearly as good as we think we are and Duzzi isn't even close to the coach as we perceive him to be. I obviously think we are better than a lot on this board. 7 and 5 with this schedule is a big disappointment. yeah, we lost some good players, it's college football, that happens to all teams.
EASY WINS:
YSU, Rice, Cuse, Duke, Virginia. right there, 5 wins. yeah cuse and uva aren't "gimmes" but they are below avg programs. if you lose to either of those teams, it's a bad BAD loss.
so to get to 8 wins, you have to figure out how to go 3 and 4 amongst good but far from great teams like NC state, unc, va tech, Miami and ga tech.. I do admit that psu and ok state are top 10 programs, so even if you lose those 2, you should still be able to go 3-2 against the 5 teams below. Lets not act like NC state, unc and va tech are world beaters, these are still teams that might reach top 25 status, maybe..
if pitt cant go .500% against avg P5 programs, we are not nearly as good as we think we are and Duzzi isn't even close to the coach as we perceive him to be. I obviously think we are better than a lot on this board. 7 and 5 with this schedule is a big disappointment. yeah, we lost some good players, it's college football, that happens to all teams.
Fans severely underestimate the impact of losing studs on the left side of the line, Conner, and a good blocking TE.
If running the jet sweep was successful simply because you have a fast guy running it, more teams would do it. It was successful because whether healthy or not, teams had to respect Conner inside and Pitt's interior line. It opened up space on the outside because DE's and LB's were cheating inside. The inside running game will more than likely take a step back which will impact the jet sweep which could lead to more 3rd and longs.
The start of the season and injury impact will be vital this year to having a good year
I wouldnt take the over only because I would most certainly jinx Pitt if I did... but I would recommend any more lucky gamblers to go ahead and take that line.
Not only should win 7, but our schedule isnt as bad as last years I think. Oklahoma state seems like the only sure bet loss
Great points, and completely agree. Most on here were somewhat disappointed or at least apprehensive with the Canada hire after he was released by NCSU. To say he absolutely shocked me with the massive changes and wrinkles he was able to install with the talent he inherited, while setting program records on offense, would be an understatement.
I'm not sure if PITT is going to catch lightning in a bottle twice with Watson now serving as the OC, but I have to believe he will use a similar system given the number of offensive players he has returning from last year. If TMAC can learn the playbook and step up, he should provide massive pressure on Browne, who is still very much an unknown at this time. TMac and DiNucci have an opportunity to see significant playing time if Browne doesn't grab the position and run. Both of those players seem to have similar attributes to what Peterman brought to the table in terms of mobility and ability to stretch the field once in a while.
Again, a lot of "ifs" concerning the offensive side of the ball, but the pieces are in place to have a very productive unit.
No doubt about it. There are some studs (on paper) currently on the roster or incoming freshman/transfers who will be very interesting to watch. Chris Clark, Sear, Reeves, and Flanagan should be able to make some waves at the TE position. PITT needs both Clark and Flanagan to step up early in the season to provide both run and pass support.
This is the thinking I believe. Its hard to argue until proven otherwise.
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From an outsider's perspective, I think 6.5 is what most people would think our expectations should be. We lost the core of our team to the NFL draft, we're starting a grad transfer QB (whom has been labelled a bust up until this point), and have an offensive line of which the best player just got himself into an off-the-field mess.
As a fan that follows the team closely, do I think we'll only win 6-7 games? No. I see a ton of potential on both sides of the ball where I can realistically start thinking we might win 9-10 games.
I'm taking PITT with the over as I think we'll get 8-9 wins.
As a fan that follows the team closely, do I think we'll only win 6-7 games? No. I see a ton of potential on both sides of the ball where I can realistically start thinking we might win 9-10 games.
I'm taking PITT with the over as I think we'll get 8-9 wins.
Overly pessimistic, IMHO. What I think we will see is a drop off of about a TD per game on offense; but I really believe the defense will be improved by at least that much. I just don't see it giving up 35 PT's/game again. I suspect that number will drop into the 20s.
I am going to guess that we will change from scoring 40 and giving up 35 to scoring 30-33 and giving up 21-24. I think this because I really believe this year there will be more depth of talent overall on the roster and as a result we won't have a gassed defense late in games.
OKST is a much more winnable game than Penn State
lemme take a stab at answering this.
Pitt's offense was probably the best in the country last year.
It lost:
most reliable receiver (Orndorff)
2 great o-linemen
best Pitt QB since Van Pelt (possibly best since Marino)
RB who was way better than any RB on the roster whether he was full strength or not
offensive coordinator who somehow installed a completely new offense with what appeared to be zero growing pains
6.5 wins sounds about right. If I had to bet, I say they win 7.
Certainly disagree with that. We beat psu last year and were missing a lot of weapons and really didnt have a WR. It is a rivalry game, any rivalry game is a toss up. OKST had what 700 yards in offense last year against us, and return basically their whole offense??? I really dont think we have a shot against them, sure, we could pull it off, and if we do, what a great coaching job that would be, but OSU is twice the team that psu is.
As of right now PSU is an 18 point favorite over Pitt.
Oklahoma St a 4.5 road favorite at Pitt.
In the heart i want you to be right ... But i really am skeptical the O won't level off further than the D improves. Some key guys everyone is counting on ... Clark on offense and Hendrix on D ... they seem hard luck.
The QB has talent but growing pains are inevitable.
Other than Whitehead on D, who is coming off a plateau season himself, there are no others on D you can YET hang your hat on. Could be that there will. But not yet.
We have a new kicker. It is always a crap shootout with such until seen otherwise.
And as another poster mentioned we don't seem to have a major stud TB. The committee approach can be ok. But it is a good psychological weapon if nothing else to have a great guy that the other team knows is gonna be coming.
Most critically we lost the OC who produced that amazing offense. I won't say we haven't had decent OC / offensive minded HC before ... we certainly have. Or even that the new guy can't be good too... but no previous Pitt offense has EVER performed ANYTHING like last year's. The FIVE seasons preceding it the offense ranged from merely ok to struggling mightily to score. Our history leans more toward that.
Can the D come close to improving enough to make up for that? Impartial minds seem not to think so, yet.
Hope I am right but, of course I may be wrong. I just have a gut feeling that the drop off to our replacement parts isn't as enormous as some may believe. I feel we have the best overall quality of depth I have seen on a Pitt team in decades.
[Agreed. PITT will play at least 3 Top 20 teams this year (Miami being the lowest ranked, which could change). If they can steal one of those games, then 9 wins looks reasonable. The wildcard is how well the defense plays given the infusion of talent in the last couple of recruiting classes.]
All great points! Just to add my .02 above.
Brian Flanagan.. pic below. came from the US army, tried to get into marketing, even went to business school at the local city college but had a hard time being a full time student and working nights tending Bar at Fridays so eventually dropped out. heard he bought a bar in Jamaica but ended up getting some rich chick from ny pregnant and disappeared..
Good to see he's back in the fold, I was curious what happened to him..
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