ADVERTISEMENT

War Room- June 2nd

Status
Not open for further replies.

JimPL

All P I T T !
Gold Member
Jul 29, 2001
34,187
2,733
113
From the desk of Chris Peak


Rankings, ratings, and rantings

Given this week's message board discourse on the rankings and Rivals' ratings system, I thought I would put together a few thoughts on the whole deal and throw it out there for discussion.

I spoke with some people at Rivals this week about the system of ranking and rating players. One of the interesting points, and one that's been debated on this board this week, is that Rivals works to keep the number of 5-star players to a minimum. The working number I got was around 25 or, at the most, 30. That works out to about 1% of the total recruits. I can see why Rivals has tried to stick to that kind of figure: the idea is to make a 5-star designation really mean something. The more that get handed out, the lower that bar of top excellence sags. Of course, there are downsides: if you limit yourself to only 25 5-stars, you're changing the concept of what a 5-star player is year-by-year. With unlimited 5-stars, all players who meet a certain standard would receive the highest rating, thus allowing you to compare year to year. With this system, you're really just getting an idea of who is the elite in any given class. In other words, the 5-stars are relative to the class. But I don't think that's what's really been the issue this week.

The issue this week has been Pitt commit Pat Bostick and the fact that he is not among the 5-stars that have been announced. That is disappointing, to be sure, particularly since we at the Pantherlair consider Pat to be the number one player in the state. If you combine the Pantherlair's PA Top 50 and the 5-star players already announced by Rivals, you come to the conclusion that there won't be any 5-star players in Pennsylvania this year. That's not too hard to imagine, though, as PA didn't have any 5-star players at the end of the recruiting season last year, either.

Now, how much of a slight is this to Pat Bostick? Well, consider this: while Pat has not been given the 5-star designation, I will say the following with a fair amount of certainty:

1) He will be in the Rivals Top 100
2) He will be awarded four stars
3) He will be among the top 10 quarterbacks in the country

It's not five stars, but those three honors for Pat mean that he is still among the upper echelon of players in the country, and ranked higher than 85-90% of the quarterbacks in the country that will receive scholarships. The bottom line is this: Pat Bostick is a high-caliber quarterback who has been viewed as the Panthers' next leader by the Pitt coaching staff for quite some time. Apparently, in the eyes of the Rivals evaluators, he is a slight step below the absolute top tier. This could be based on a lot of things and it could imply a lot of things. One thing is for sure: Pat Bostick is no chump and, as a matter of fact, he's one hell of a quarterback. If anyone asks me, he's an elite player.

In speaking with some people at Rivals this week, I inquired about the "selection process." Apparently it's very much by committee, and no one truly has final say or veto power. A group of about seven well-informed people have most of the say in deciding stars and rankings, but they take input from a number of sources, including regional recruiting analysts, conference editors (the guys who oversee the sites in each conference), and site publishers. A few weeks ago, an e-mail was sent out to site publishers across the Rivals network requesting nominations for 5-stars. The Pantherlair submitted a list of about 15 or 16 players from Pennsylvania. Although the Rivals limitations obviously won't allow for 16 PA players on the 5-star list, we wanted to throw out as many names as we could to get those players in the minds of the Rivals evaluators. Rivals will take similar input when they start assigning four stars, and we will send them many of the same names plus more that we think are deserving of four-star recognition. In addition, site publishers, conference editors, and recruiting analysts can always speak up in favor of players who may not be receiving the recognition they deserve.

At the Pantherlair, we are concerned that this may be the case with Pitt commit Chris Jacobson, who did not attend the Nike camp and may not be as well known as other linemen. As a result, we intend to fight for the player they call Lumpy because we believe, and a number of reliable sources have told us, that he is a four-star talent. Whether or not we'll get the desired end result remains to be seen, but we'll do whatever we can.

But I digress. I really believe that, when considering the rankings on Rivals or any other recruiting service, you have to always keep in mind that the concept of a ranking is, by nature, subjective. There are a ton of factors that go into the ranking process, but in the end it's a matter of "who do you think is good?" It's a judgment and not everyone always sees things the same way. Does the process have its flaws? Absolutely. Any subjective system does. And, as such, I believe that the Rivals people are always trying to do whatever they can to know as much as possible about the players they are ranking. I think the best thing that you, the readers of Pantherlair.com, can do is attempt to absorb as much information about the prospects as you can find. Consider everything, including, and perhaps most importantly, what the Pitt coaches appear to think about any given prospect. You have to think that, as Pitt fans, if you truly trust this coaching staff, then a scholarship offer is the strongest testament to a player's potential.

So, look at all the available information and realize that, no matter what happens in terms of prospect appraisal, there will always be exceptions and perfect examples. Everything that is done to rank and rate high school players is, at the end of the day, an educated guess. Take it for what it's worth, and trust the coaching staff.


From the desk of Jim Snyder

ESPN agreement and the Big East

In case you missed our supplemental post to last weeks War Room the Big East Conference and ESPN/ABC have reached a new television agreement. The basketball portion would increase rights fees approximate three (3) times and the football portion approximately 75%. The football portion starts with the 08-09 season and the basketball portion with the 07-08 season. That should get football schools a little more money than when Miami, Virginia Tech and Boston College were members and the basketball piece should give them a lot more money.

The Big East Conference still has two problems to resolve and neither appears to have an easy solution. The bowl alignment needs to be upgraded over time. I am not sure what to make of the announcement that Navy is now a part of the bowl deal in Charlotte. It could mean a closer relationship with Navy but it might only illustrate how weak their bowl position is right now. The member schools will need to win more football games and build their fan bases in the process. They will also have to show they will travel with their schools. Having only eight teams weakens your bargaining position. Most bowls do not want to see the same teams year after year for fear their fans will grow weary of visiting the same city. The Big East has tried to solve this problem by bringing Notre Dame and now Navy into their bowl agreements.

The other problem is the need for another home game now that colleges play a 12 game schedule. Having only eight football members means you get only 4 conference games one year and 3 the next. Each home game is cable of generating in excess of a million dollars to each school. This means the conference has approximately a $4 million dollar a year problem. The problem was made worse by the move to a 12 game schedule. No one wants to make a living playing 7 road games and only 5 games at home. The Mid American Conference often has to play this game and it is a no win proposition over the long run.

Adding another school would not be easy and would create a host of other problems. Only Central Florida and maybe Memphis would appear to be viable candidates right now. Both have the possibility of bring a bowl game with them and also solving your $4 million dollar per year home game problem. However, it’s hard to see the basketball only schools allowing the football schools to take in another member. This could be a problem Mike Tranghese has to wrestle with for some time. I go back in forth over which school would be the strongest addition to the Big East. Right now I am leaning to Central Florida but give me a few months and I will probably be making an argument for Memphis. Central Florida would give South Florida a natural rival. It is also in a large television market, which is the very foundation of the Big East Conference. It is also in the eastern time zone. Both have bowl possibilities so that is a push.

The new ESPN/ABC agreement should give the Big East some time (and money) to help them work on the other two problems.

A number of the early college magazines are starting to hit the newsstands. The consensus so far is as follows:

1) West Virginia
2) Louisville
3) Rutgers
4) Pitt
5) South Florida
6) UConn
7) Cincinnati
8) Syracuse

Last year Pitt lost to Rutgers 37-29 on the road. This time Pitt gets the Scarlet Knights at home. Rutgers had played Villanova and Buffalo prior to playing Pitt. My memory tells me that they also had an off week to prepare and Pitt went to New Jersey with a short week to prepare. Rutgers jump out to a big lead early. Once Pitt made adjustments the Scarlet Knights were holding on at the end. My guess is the Pitt staff will not allow this to happen again. Pitt figures to be better prepared this time around. This time Pitt has eight days to prepare and they will be playing at home.

Some basketball recruiting

Yesterday we spoke to Ed Weislinski who is the head basketball coach at Christian Brothers Academy in Lincroft, New Jersey. He said his four-star forward Dan Werner would visit Florida this weekend and Seton Hall sometime next week. He made an unofficial visit to Rutgers this past Wednesday. This means he has visited seven (7) schools recently and Pitt is one of those seven. He said the process would be over within two weeks and maybe sooner. He still needs a release from NC State. The Wolfpack staff wants one last chance to pitch him. They will also want a voice into which school he selects. I doubt they would release him to and ACC school or any school on their schedule next year. All of the schools he has visited would appear to be safe schools. His coach did not want to go into –Did he have a nice visit? In the end Coach Weisnewski and I agreed almost every official visit is a nice visit. It is an all expense paid mini-vacation to the college of your choice. We have also made numerous calls to the Werner home but so far they have simply allowed their recorder to answer the phone.

Memorial Day weekend we reported on Matthew Byan-Amaning (6’ 9”). He has started to make visits. No word yet on when he will visit Pitt yet but we expect Pitt to have a good chance of landing this big guy. Matthew would best be described a power forward although he may run the floor and pass the ball a little better than your typical power forward.


Some thoughts on football recruiting

We are beyond the May Evaluation Period. College coaches are now trying to get prospects to visit their summer camp. For those without a scholarship offer it is a chance to impress the coaches. For those with offers it give the player a chance to get to know the school and the coaching staffs a little better and it give the coaches a chance to recruit some more. We are in a restricted period but college coaches can recruit if the prospect is on your campus.

Chris Peak had an article yesterday on offensive lineman John Fieger from Upper Perkiomen. This will be John’s fourth trip to Pitt. He likes the Panthers program a lot. If he is offer he will probably commit. Reportedly some on the staff also like him so an offer by Pitt is a real possibility. John Fieger does not yet have an offer from any school but he is 6’ 5” tall and weighs 276 pounds. He did not make the initial Pantherlair Top 50 but was one of a dozen players that could easily have been included.

Chris was talking to Perry coach Bill Gallagher yesterday. He felt there was a good chance that his lineman Cameron Holland would earn a scholarship offer from Pitt at their camp in mid-June.

Yesterday we had an article on Mount Lebanon’s Andrew Devlin. He seems to want to personally checkout out dozens of colleges. Keep in mind at the end of the day both parents graduated from Pitt. Once he has taken his visits you would like to think Pitt would get a fair shot a making their case. Academics are an important issue with this family. It may be wise to get the Chancellor involved at the end.

A colleague ran into Akron head coach J.D. Brookhart recently. He said Pitt fans will be very happy with offensive tackle Jeff Otah from Valley Forge. Brookhardt thinks he is a player. I sure hope he has it right. If so Pitt could surprise this fall.

Pitt will have several unofficial visitors in this weekend. Not sure on the visitors but one could be defensive end Derrick Morgan from Coatesville, Pa. We have him ranked No. 7 in the state but I could easily make a case he should have been ranked higher.

Last year approximately 80 players earned Division 1 scholarships in the state of Pennsylvania. This year’s class may lack some star power but is a good solid group and the number could easily reach last years level. It’s been a while since I have seen schools like Arizona State, Arizona, Vanderbilt, Mississippi and Colorado working the state. All the usual suspects are in the state recruiting and a few newcomers have joined the fray this year. The last time we checked 58 prospects had scholarship offers. You should have others join this group once they attend summer camps at various colleges.

There was a report on another internet site that Pitt running back coach Dave Walker had visited Milford Academy to talk to running back LeSean McCoy (formerly from Bishop McDevitt). We have also heard the same thing from a couple of different sources. McCoy may be making a visit to Pitt within the next few weeks. It is possible Pitt will chase him for the balance of the year while also recruiting Florida hard for a second running back.

There are several interesting Florida running backs including Zach Brown, Bo Williams, Jamar Taylor, Xavier Stinson, Chacon Lee and Greg Williamsthat have scholarship offers from Pitt. There appears to be at least some interest in Pitt from this entire group. As a general rule these Florida players are unlikely to commit early to Pitt. Most do not have the economic resources to make unofficial visits. As a general rule they will wait at let Pitt pay for the trip Pittsburgh this fall. Once in a while a player will commit out of left field as happened this past week when Lamont Smith from Pittsburgh Central Catholic committed to Colorado without ever having seen the place. Occasionally it happens but it is not the norm.

Dave Wannstedt will be in Georgia today for Craig Heyward’s funeral, as will several others with Pitt connections. It will give Coach Wannstedt a chance to spend a little time with Cameron Heyward and the rest of the family.

The recent story about “Ironhead” asking Dave Wannstedt to give him his $200,000 back is vintage “Ironhead”. Wannstedt had fined him for being overweight when he was the head coach of the Chicago Bears. I can’t stop smiling when I think about the big guy. He was bigger than life. Cameron seems to be a very nice young man so Craig did something right.

Dom DeCicco’s family has advised the Pantherlair that TJ’s Dom DeCicco picked up an offer from Georgia Tech yesterday. I believe he now has seven offers. Dom may go to Ohio State’s camp this weekend.

It’s been a few weeks since Pitt’s last commitment but the feedback we get is that the folks on the Southside are not too concerned. In many cases it is simply that they are involved with players that have multiple scholarship offers and these things take time to play themselves out. We aren’t going to build fences around anywhere but there is a confidence that at the end of the day Pitt will get its fair share. They are involved with some very good players.


The War Room is targeted towards our premium customers. We ask that all information reported in the War Room MUST stay right here! That’s the way this deal works. When this information is repeated outside of the Between Fifth and Forbes forum it only cheapens the price of yours and every other die-hard who have purchased premium services. The War Room is one of our more popular features...thank you all for keeping the information on this board.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT

Go Big.
Get Premium.

Join Rivals to access this premium section.

  • Say your piece in exclusive fan communities.
  • Unlock Premium news from the largest network of experts.
  • Dominate with stats, athlete data, Rivals250 rankings, and more.
Log in or subscribe today Go Back