One thing I noticed when it comes to Watson and the passing game he prefers...it's the best thing for this line and for Pickett. In fact, I think the offense under Watson is in line for a significant bump most prominently because I think the guy pulling the trigger fits Watson's schemes perfectly and some of the perceived shortcomings with the personnel are things Watson should be able to address because he's done it before.
I've been watching some of the better teams that Watson has coached; the 2001 Colorado Buffaloes (dropped 62 points on #1 Nebraska) and the Louisville Teddy Bridgewaters. The main reason I wanted to focus on these two teams particularly is because they appear to be completely different offenses. The Buffs rushed for about 230 ypg and played under center while the Bridgewaters threw for about 300 ypg from a mix of under center and pistol sets.
Watson's philosophy really shows through because even with pretty radically different personnel strengths, clear patterns show.
1.) We'll always see multiple running backs getting significant carries.
In 2001, 2012, and 2017 Watson rotated backs quite a bit. In all three seasons, the player with the most rushing attempts ended the season with about 5 more carries or so per game than the 2nd leading rusher. I'm not sure it's worth it to worry too much about whether a back has seized the #1 spot since 2 or 3 are probably going to play a lot every season.
2.) Running backs will always need to catch the ball.
Backs had 19% of the receptions in Bridgewater's last season in L'ville, 22% of the receptions at CU in 2001, and 22% of the receptions for Pitt last season (and that's even generously counting QH as a WR rather than a slot back). Backs will always have to catch the ball in a Watson offense.
3.) Almost EVERYTHING in the passing game is off the 3 step drop or a play action rollout.
This is where you can really see the pattern in Watson's style. 3 step drop and play action is very obviously a trademark of the west coast offense. It also means there will almost always be a pretty wide distribution of touches for a lot of players. The surprising thing I found was that even on that 2012 Louisville team, the leading receiver only had 50 catches...and it wasn't Devante Parker or Eli Rogers. In 2001 with Colorado, the leading receiver had 51 catches, and it was TE Daniel Graham. Now, Graham was a fantastic player and a matchup nightmare, but it just shows that the ball will end up in a lot of different hands.
4.) Will Gragg should LOVE the offense this season.
One thing I noticed in particular was any time Watson has an athletic TE, Watson is particularly good at using play action and formations to allow for big play opportunities for those types of players. I will bet that teams that play a lot of man defense (like VT) are going to see a few plays a game with a run action and the TE is matched up on a linebacker deep downfield. Gragg seems like the choice for this but if Sear can do the job as well, it could really cause problems for other teams.
5.) Even if the OL is just average, the passing game shouldn't suffer.
Since everything is off either 3 step (very quick) or play action (with a roll out usually) it's built into the offense to protect the QB even if the blocking isn't always great. The west coast system was created to be too quick to get a lot of hits on quarterbacks. It's premised on causing the defense stress by having to cover every guy on the field as a potential threat in the passing game. That's why, while Flannagan wasn't a great receiving TE, he still got a fair number of catches. Every regular player on the offense should expect at least 10-15 catches. So while it might be wonderful to have a stud #1 WR, it's not a requirement.
6.) For Watson, it really is all about the quarterback.
The game has definitely evolved since 2001 and Colorado had an exceptional run blocking offensive line and running back stable. But everyone knows in 2018 that good quarterback play is the single biggest factor in determining offensive success. This is true for any team but it is especially true in a Watson offense. The more I've watched Pitt from last year, the more I believe that had Canada stayed, the results wouldn't have been radically different. Watson really did have to protect Browne and Dinucci in calling the offense and it showed...but those same guys would have had a lot of trouble operating Canada's system too.
But the thing about Watson's system that might be better than Canada's system is the sophistication of the passing game. Canada's was mostly throwing to the first read and maybe at times the second. Now the line and the running game were so good that having a simplified passing attack premised almost totally on play action worked. But without that same offensive line, those passing plays would have been shredded by good defensive lines. If I watched LSU enough from last year, I'd be willing to bet that's what happened there.
Watson really knows what he has in Pickett. When he says that KP is the closest thing to Bridgewater that he's had since he had Bridgewater, that's code for "I think this offense can hum." He trusted Bridgewater immensely. Louisville threw the ball out of empty sets in the 4th quarter nursing small leads. They threw on their own goal line knowing a blitz was coming. They threw deep on 3rd and 1 if they defense gave the right look.
If Watson really trusts Pickett like he did Bridgewater - Pitt is going to be a fun team to watch again and they're going to keep defenses really off balance.
7.) Some predictions (I've already stated some of them I guess)
- As long as Pickett is healthy, the offense will look like the one that controlled the game against a very very very good Miami defense
- The line may not be great, but if they can run block effectively the offense has a chance to be VERY good (even if they don't end up as good as 2016)
- I think at least 5 players will have at least 25 catches and the backs will have over 50 catches combined
- I think TE's will end up somewhere around 40 catches combined and some of those will be big big plays in play action
- Pickett will have the type of season that puts him on the short list for preseason ACC player of the year in 2019.
I've been watching some of the better teams that Watson has coached; the 2001 Colorado Buffaloes (dropped 62 points on #1 Nebraska) and the Louisville Teddy Bridgewaters. The main reason I wanted to focus on these two teams particularly is because they appear to be completely different offenses. The Buffs rushed for about 230 ypg and played under center while the Bridgewaters threw for about 300 ypg from a mix of under center and pistol sets.
Watson's philosophy really shows through because even with pretty radically different personnel strengths, clear patterns show.
1.) We'll always see multiple running backs getting significant carries.
In 2001, 2012, and 2017 Watson rotated backs quite a bit. In all three seasons, the player with the most rushing attempts ended the season with about 5 more carries or so per game than the 2nd leading rusher. I'm not sure it's worth it to worry too much about whether a back has seized the #1 spot since 2 or 3 are probably going to play a lot every season.
2.) Running backs will always need to catch the ball.
Backs had 19% of the receptions in Bridgewater's last season in L'ville, 22% of the receptions at CU in 2001, and 22% of the receptions for Pitt last season (and that's even generously counting QH as a WR rather than a slot back). Backs will always have to catch the ball in a Watson offense.
3.) Almost EVERYTHING in the passing game is off the 3 step drop or a play action rollout.
This is where you can really see the pattern in Watson's style. 3 step drop and play action is very obviously a trademark of the west coast offense. It also means there will almost always be a pretty wide distribution of touches for a lot of players. The surprising thing I found was that even on that 2012 Louisville team, the leading receiver only had 50 catches...and it wasn't Devante Parker or Eli Rogers. In 2001 with Colorado, the leading receiver had 51 catches, and it was TE Daniel Graham. Now, Graham was a fantastic player and a matchup nightmare, but it just shows that the ball will end up in a lot of different hands.
4.) Will Gragg should LOVE the offense this season.
One thing I noticed in particular was any time Watson has an athletic TE, Watson is particularly good at using play action and formations to allow for big play opportunities for those types of players. I will bet that teams that play a lot of man defense (like VT) are going to see a few plays a game with a run action and the TE is matched up on a linebacker deep downfield. Gragg seems like the choice for this but if Sear can do the job as well, it could really cause problems for other teams.
5.) Even if the OL is just average, the passing game shouldn't suffer.
Since everything is off either 3 step (very quick) or play action (with a roll out usually) it's built into the offense to protect the QB even if the blocking isn't always great. The west coast system was created to be too quick to get a lot of hits on quarterbacks. It's premised on causing the defense stress by having to cover every guy on the field as a potential threat in the passing game. That's why, while Flannagan wasn't a great receiving TE, he still got a fair number of catches. Every regular player on the offense should expect at least 10-15 catches. So while it might be wonderful to have a stud #1 WR, it's not a requirement.
6.) For Watson, it really is all about the quarterback.
The game has definitely evolved since 2001 and Colorado had an exceptional run blocking offensive line and running back stable. But everyone knows in 2018 that good quarterback play is the single biggest factor in determining offensive success. This is true for any team but it is especially true in a Watson offense. The more I've watched Pitt from last year, the more I believe that had Canada stayed, the results wouldn't have been radically different. Watson really did have to protect Browne and Dinucci in calling the offense and it showed...but those same guys would have had a lot of trouble operating Canada's system too.
But the thing about Watson's system that might be better than Canada's system is the sophistication of the passing game. Canada's was mostly throwing to the first read and maybe at times the second. Now the line and the running game were so good that having a simplified passing attack premised almost totally on play action worked. But without that same offensive line, those passing plays would have been shredded by good defensive lines. If I watched LSU enough from last year, I'd be willing to bet that's what happened there.
Watson really knows what he has in Pickett. When he says that KP is the closest thing to Bridgewater that he's had since he had Bridgewater, that's code for "I think this offense can hum." He trusted Bridgewater immensely. Louisville threw the ball out of empty sets in the 4th quarter nursing small leads. They threw on their own goal line knowing a blitz was coming. They threw deep on 3rd and 1 if they defense gave the right look.
If Watson really trusts Pickett like he did Bridgewater - Pitt is going to be a fun team to watch again and they're going to keep defenses really off balance.
7.) Some predictions (I've already stated some of them I guess)
- As long as Pickett is healthy, the offense will look like the one that controlled the game against a very very very good Miami defense
- The line may not be great, but if they can run block effectively the offense has a chance to be VERY good (even if they don't end up as good as 2016)
- I think at least 5 players will have at least 25 catches and the backs will have over 50 catches combined
- I think TE's will end up somewhere around 40 catches combined and some of those will be big big plays in play action
- Pickett will have the type of season that puts him on the short list for preseason ACC player of the year in 2019.
