Way Too Early Sagarin ACC & the Better OOC Opponent Rankings

[DC_Area_Panther]

Sagarin ACC rankings through yesterday's games---Obviously these rankings retain a heavy dose of pre-season starting rankings influence:

5 Duke = 89.39
8 North Carolina = 88.32
27 Virginia = 85.68
36 Virginia Tech = 84.17
45 Syracuse = 83.01
52 Florida State = 82.69
53 Miami-Florida = 82.69
56 Notre Dame = 82.27
58 NC State = 82.22
65 Clemson = 81.05
71 Louisville = 80.35
72 Wake Forest = 80.28
97 Pittsburgh = 77.82
99 Georgia Tech = 77.64
110 Boston College = 76.88

At the moment this suggests Pitt needs to be at least 5 points better per game than this ranking (on average) to have any hope for post-season play.

Better OOC Opponent Rankings:

43 West Virginia = 83.09
9 Michigan = 88.19
69 Arizona State = 80.38
63 VCU = 81.35
66 Northwestern = 80.89
87 Vanderbilt = 78.76

 

[Drew1208]

Syracuse sucks

 

[Pittnerski]

Louisville sucks.

EZ and Radford should’ve beat ND yesterday. Really blew that one.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

West Virginia just moved up to ##35 and Pitt down to #113 Sagarin.

IMHO the margin of loss was primarily a function of two factors:

(1) No Hugley (14.8 pts/7.9 Rbs last season) vs Federiko (5 pts-6 Rbs last night)-- 10 pt deficit.

(2) Pitt 19 turnovers vs West Virginia only having 11 turnovers. The turnover margin (8) meant 8 fewer Pitt possessions and 8 more west Virginia possessions. That was was worth about 15-16 points in West Virginia's favor based on FG shooting percentages (West Virginia 52.6%; Pitt 42.2%) .

Summary: (1) + (2) = 10 + 15 or 16 = 25 or 26 point deficit and 81-56 = 25 point deficit. Coincidence? Maybe? Maybe not?