We had a 97.5% chance to win in the 4th quarter

[Sean Miller Fan]

This is the sickest I've felt since the Cincinnati game.

Narduzzi is a good coach but we are in desperate need of better players. For all of you Chryst lovers, he left us with good RBs and a good OL but literally nothing else.

 

[BFo8]

According to who?

Not even close to accurate.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

According to who?

Not even close to accurate.

ESPN FPI

We had the ball up 13 with 8 minutes to go.

UNC needed stop, TD, stop, TD, all in the last 8 minutes.

 

[maxxwell]

What was the win % against Houston in that Bowl game?

 

[JD1976]

and Pitt probably had a 99.5% chance to win when they were leading Houston in the bowl game but it's a game played by people not computers. Stop posting about these dumb probabilities.

 

[Gep Dawg]

I love Narduzzi's intensity and temperament but I don't think he's proven he's a good coach yet. He's lost a lot of winnable games these past two years. I already see he's blaming the player's execution which is a real crappy way of saying I don't make adjustments and if we lose I put it on my players

 

[HailtoPitt]

Lol. I knew it was still 50/50 at that point.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

What was the win % against Houston in that Bowl game?

More than 99.9%. I think that was like the most statistically improbable comeback in years.

 

[BFo8]

ESPN FPI

We had the ball up 13 with 8 minutes to go.

UNC needed stop, TD, stop, TD, all in the last 8 minutes.

Throw that site out the window then, live betting had Pitt around -450 to win at that point, nowhere near 97.5%.

Some of these win probability type stats ESPN puts out have absolutely no basis in reality.

 

[JD1976]

Yeah there's no way UNC had only a 2.5% chance to win. It makes no sense. It was a 13 point game with most of the 4th quarter to play.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Yeah there's no way UNC had only a 2.5% chance to win. It makes no sense. It was a 13 point game with most of the 4th quarter to play.

Stop, TD, stop, TD in 8 minutes is tough to do,especially in a game you have been gashed by the runm

 

[H2Pforever]

Stop, TD, stop, TD in 8 minutes is tough to do,especially in a game you have been gashed by the runm

You think it is unusual to get two stops and score two tds in 8 minutes.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

You think it is unusual to get two stops and score two tds in 8 minutes.

Define unusual.

Teams up 13 with the ball and 8 minutes win games.....about 97.5% of the time.

 

[H2Pforever]

Define unusual.

Teams up 13 with the ball and 8 minutes win games.....about 97.5% of the time.

I highly doubt that is what that stat means.

 

[Black_Man_Panther]

This is the sickest I've felt since the Cincinnati game.

Narduzzi is a good coach but we are in desperate need of better players. For all of you Chryst lovers, he left us with good RBs and a good OL but literally nothing else.

He left him w/ a strong OL and deep at RB... EXACTLY what you need to close out a game. And super genius Narduzzi/Canada couldn't get it done.

 

[runthewildcat]

This is the sickest I've felt since the Cincinnati game.

Narduzzi is a good coach but we are in desperate need of better players. For all of you Chryst lovers, he left us with good RBs and a good OL but literally nothing else.

That's the biggest line of BS ever. There is no way players can be that bad! We are the worst at any collegiate level in covering and tackling in the secondary. Totally pathetic and inexcusable!

 

[BFo8]

Stop, TD, stop, TD in 8 minutes is tough to do,especially in a game you have been gashed by the runm

And as I mentioned above, in live in game wagering (where real money is risked), Pitt was less than a 5/1 favorite to win at that point. Takeback on UNC was a mere +325.

So for the people that actually do this for a living Pitt was nowhere remotely close to a 97.5% favorite to win that game.

 

[BFo8]

Define unusual.

Teams up 13 with the ball and 8 minutes win games.....about 97.5% of the time.

If you really think that you should move out here to Vegas.

You will make a fortune laying only -500 on these games that have a 97.5% chance of winning.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

If you really think that you should move out here to Vegas.

You will make a fortune laying only -500 on these games that have a 97.5% chance of winning.

With 8 minutes left and the ball, up 13, Pitt needed 3, maybe 4 1st downs to win the game. UNC needed 2 TOUCHDOWNS.

3 1st downs vs 2 touchdowns and the team that only needed the 3 1st downs had already scored 36 points.

I have been watching Pitt my entire life and I dont remember one time where we came back from that large a deficit that late. We were down 15 to UConn with 3 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. But thats not close to being up 13 with the ball with 8 minutes left.

 

[BFo8]

With 8 minutes left and the ball, up 13, Pitt needed 3, maybe 4 1st downs to win the game. UNC needed 2 TOUCHDOWNS.

3 1st downs vs 2 touchdowns and the team that only needed the 3 1st downs had already scored 36 points.

I have been watching Pitt my entire life and I dont remember one time where we came back from that large a deficit that late. We were down 15 to UConn with 3 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. But thats not close to being up 13 with the ball with 8 minutes left.

All I can tell you is that the guys that make their living doing this for real money said Pitt was less an a 5-1 favorite there. The guys at ESPN who called 7.5 point favorite Mississippi beating Georgia an "upset" said they were a 97.5% favorite. Which group do you think knows what they're talking about?

I really respect your insight when it comes to the TV deal stuff, your knowledge dwarfs mine on the subject.

However when it comes to anything having to do with gambling/odds I'm going to be right 99.9% of the time.

 

[thebadby2]

More than 99.9%. I think that was like the most statistically improbable comeback in years.

If we played this year's Houston team we wouldn't have to worry about losing a big lead. We'd be down by 60 in the 4th.

 

[sherepower]

This is the sickest I've felt since the Cincinnati game.

Narduzzi is a good coach but we are in desperate need of better players. For all of you Chryst lovers, he left us with good RBs and a good OL but literally nothing else.

Yet without all this talent you guys keep saying we don't have. We were in position to beat Oklahoma st with the ball on their 45. Late in the game. Only to turtle up with the play calling.

On top of kicking UNC 's ass(up 13 with 6 mins) only to once again turtle up with our offensive play calling.

Play to win the friggen game. And we are 4-0

Instead we are 2-2 with no chance in to win the coastal. All because we once again have a coaching staff that went conservative when the game was ours for the taking.

 

[King Of All Message Boards]

http://www.espn.com/college-football/game?gameId=400869449

There's a graph down the page. If you slide your thumb/finger over the graph and slide it you'll see that probabilities. Do so at your own risk - it's sickening.