Wednesday is such a huge match

[PittMBA]

I think Pitt has almost assuredly secured one of the 4 #1 seeds. But - securing the #1 overall seed might put Nebraska and Louisville on the same side of the bracket.

The last volleytalk bracketology has Pitt as #2 seed with Nebraska #1, Lvill #3, and Penn St #4.

The forecast assumes a Pitt loss on Wednesday. I think winning out gives Pitt the # 1 overall seed .

 

[Gregpitt]

We destroyed PSU and yet ranked close behind us. I don't follow them, but curious as why they are so highly ranked.

 

[mike10003]

We destroyed PSU and yet ranked close behind us. I don't follow them, but curious as why they are so highly ranked.

They’re 27-2 and have a bunch of really good wins (like Louisville).

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

We destroyed PSU and yet ranked close behind us. I don't follow them, but curious as why they are so highly ranked.

Why are they ranked so high? They are 27-2. The two losses are both on the road, to RPI ranked teams 2 and 7. And they have wins over RPI 3, 10, 15, 17, 21 and 15 again. Plus several other teams that are just outside the top 25.

In some ways we should be happy that they are that highly rated. Because we destroyed them, so at this point there is almost no chance we drop below them. Which means as of right now our absolute bottom is about number three.

 

[Gregpitt]

Thanks for the quick and informative info. Appreciate it.

 

[vantheman1976]

I think Pitt has almost assuredly secured one of the 4 #1 seeds. But - securing the #1 overall seed might put Nebraska and Louisville on the same side of the bracket.

The last volleytalk bracketology has Pitt as #2 seed with Nebraska #1, Lvill #3, and Penn St #4.

The forecast assumes a Pitt loss on Wednesday. I think winning out gives Pitt the # 1 overall seed .

I think winning out gives Pitt the # 1 overall seed

Yes

 

[RightSaidTed]

I think winning out gives Pitt the # 1 overall seed

Yes

Curious why you think this? If Nebraska wins out they are going to have the same record and more ranked wins, which is the reason the Committee offered for ranking them higher at mid-season.

 

[vantheman1976]

Curious why you think this? If Nebraska wins out they are going to have the same record and more ranked wins, which is the reason the Committee offered for ranking them higher at mid-season.

I appreciate your question.....here's my rationale (or craziness)....

Historically....the tournament relies heavily on RPI to do the selection and seeding. More and more....the NCAA is adding KPI as a criteria. KPI is considered an improvement over RPI because it's more specific and accurate in ranking a team's resume. I think this may be the 1st year it has been added to the NCAA women's volleyball selection criteria.

The mid season ranking you refer to had Nebraska at #1 which was dumb in my view......24 hours after it was released Pitt whacked Stanford 3 - 0....which would have likely placed Pitt as #1 in that preliminary seeding. Here are some facts to consider as of today.

• RPI
  • Nebraska is #1.....Pitt #2.....however the separation is razor thin
  • The committee looks hard at the RPI top 50 and both Nebraska and Pitt will be 16-1 if you assume Pitt beats Louisville (RPI 3) and GT (RPI 25) this week and Nebraska takes down Penn State (RPI 4) and Maryland (RPI 144)
  • Under that scenario Pitt would be 4 - 0 against the top 5 teams.....Nebraska 2 -0.
  • Nebraska also blemishes their resume with 5 wins against teams with RPI's above 176.....Pitt is 2 -0 in that category
• KPI
  • KPI is where things get interesting and I have no idea how the committee will use it. Until the matches last weekend....Pitt was #1 and Nebraska #2 using KPI
  • Today Nebraska is #1....Pitt #2 and separated by a miniscule .014 %
  • I am confident Pitt will recapture the #1 position in KPI if they win out from here because their schedule is tougher than Nebraska's this week. I hope that is a big deal in the eyes of the selection committee come Sunday.

Last point.....a loss to Louisville on Wednesday is all about losing any hope of getting that #1 seed....and perhaps even worse....losing the conference title to Louisville. Of course....we'll still be a top 4 seed.....but it will be a demoralizing turn of events for the team which has played so flawlessly this season and has been ranked #1 by the AVCA since September.

 

[bellvision1]

I believe these are good sources for the rankings mentioned above.
RPI https://ncaastats.figstats.net/volleyball-rpi.cgi
KPI https://faktorsports.com/

Here is a great tracker for results of top 25 teams, courtesy of NYCHusker on Volleytalk.

 

[HOF Coach]

 

[vantheman1976]

I believe these are good sources for the rankings mentioned above.
RPI https://ncaastats.figstats.net/volleyball-rpi.cgi
KPI https://faktorsports.com/

Here is a great tracker for results of top 25 teams, courtesy of NYCHusker on Volleytalk.

View embedded media

Thanks for adding these. I had them but didn't think to add them to my post. If the committee uses KPI....I think we are the #1 seed. If they lean heavily on just RPI we might get screwed.

 

[bellvision1]

Have you seen the RPI Futures table? A guy on Volleytalk does the math to calculate a season-ending RPI. Uses Pablo predictions for each future match then adds those results into RPI. The results are a bit crazy the first half of the season, then get more helpful as time goes on. That's what we need now.

 

[RightSaidTed]

I appreciate your question.....here's my rationale (or craziness)....

Historically....the tournament relies heavily on RPI to do the selection and seeding. More and more....the NCAA is adding KPI as a criteria. KPI is considered an improvement over RPI because it's more specific and accurate in ranking a team's resume. I think this may be the 1st year it has been added to the NCAA women's volleyball selection criteria.

The mid season ranking you refer to had Nebraska at #1 which was dumb in my view......24 hours after it was released Pitt whacked Stanford 3 - 0....which would have likely placed Pitt as #1 in that preliminary seeding. Here are some facts to consider as of today.

• RPI
  • Nebraska is #1.....Pitt #2.....however the separation is razor thin
  • The committee looks hard at the RPI top 50 and both Nebraska and Pitt will be 16-1 if you assume Pitt beats Louisville (RPI 3) and GT (RPI 25) this week and Nebraska takes down Penn State (RPI 4) and Maryland (RPI 144)
  • Under that scenario Pitt would be 4 - 0 against the top 5 teams.....Nebraska 2 -0.
  • Nebraska also blemishes their resume with 5 wins against teams with RPI's above 176.....Pitt is 2 -0 in that category
• KPI
  • KPI is where things get interesting and I have no idea how the committee will use it. Until the matches last weekend....Pitt was #1 and Nebraska #2 using KPI
  • Today Nebraska is #1....Pitt #2 and separated by a miniscule .014 %
  • I am confident Pitt will recapture the #1 position in KPI if they win out from here because their schedule is tougher than Nebraska's this week. I hope that is a big deal in the eyes of the selection committee come Sunday.

Last point.....a loss to Louisville on Wednesday is all about losing any hope of getting that #1 seed....and perhaps even worse....losing the conference title to Louisville. Of course....we'll still be a top 4 seed.....but it will be a demoralizing turn of events for the team which has played so flawlessly this season and has been ranked #1 by the AVCA since September.

Thanks! I really appreciate the thorough analysis. I hope you are right.

Still hard to believe that -- for how great this season has been - we still have to play a winner-take-all game on the road just to win the ACC. If we win that one, I will be at peace with however the bracket turns out.

 

[Austin26]

I appreciate your question.....here's my rationale (or craziness)....

Historically....the tournament relies heavily on RPI to do the selection and seeding. More and more....the NCAA is adding KPI as a criteria. KPI is considered an improvement over RPI because it's more specific and accurate in ranking a team's resume. I think this may be the 1st year it has been added to the NCAA women's volleyball selection criteria.

The mid season ranking you refer to had Nebraska at #1 which was dumb in my view......24 hours after it was released Pitt whacked Stanford 3 - 0....which would have likely placed Pitt as #1 in that preliminary seeding. Here are some facts to consider as of today.

• RPI
  • Nebraska is #1.....Pitt #2.....however the separation is razor thin
  • The committee looks hard at the RPI top 50 and both Nebraska and Pitt will be 16-1 if you assume Pitt beats Louisville (RPI 3) and GT (RPI 25) this week and Nebraska takes down Penn State (RPI 4) and Maryland (RPI 144)
  • Under that scenario Pitt would be 4 - 0 against the top 5 teams.....Nebraska 2 -0.
  • Nebraska also blemishes their resume with 5 wins against teams with RPI's above 176.....Pitt is 2 -0 in that category
• KPI
  • KPI is where things get interesting and I have no idea how the committee will use it. Until the matches last weekend....Pitt was #1 and Nebraska #2 using KPI
  • Today Nebraska is #1....Pitt #2 and separated by a miniscule .014 %
  • I am confident Pitt will recapture the #1 position in KPI if they win out from here because their schedule is tougher than Nebraska's this week. I hope that is a big deal in the eyes of the selection committee come Sunday.

Last point.....a loss to Louisville on Wednesday is all about losing any hope of getting that #1 seed....and perhaps even worse....losing the conference title to Louisville. Of course....we'll still be a top 4 seed.....but it will be a demoralizing turn of events for the team which has played so flawlessly this season and has been ranked #1 by the AVCA since September.

Great analysis. Your last sentence is why I’m so anxious about this match.

 

[ThePanthers]

Yeah, we win, we have good shot at #1 seed. We lose we don’t even win the conference!

 

[Chairman Moe]

My two cents, FWIW: the committee will figure a way to arrange the top 4 seeds to include one potential semifinal of Nebraska v PSU and Pitt vs UL. It won't matter if we are 1, 2, or 3. We will be matched vs Louisville. It will "guarantee" a B1G vs ACC final if all things go as seeded