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Weird Betting Lines Tommorrow

FireballZ

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Jan 3, 2016
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Someone help me understand why these aren't sucker bets?

Miami +1 @ Pitt (I just can't believe Pitt is favored in this one)
Seton Hall -1.5 @ Butler (Butler is decimated by injuries, have 7 Big East losses by 20+)
Clemson -3.5 @ FSU (FSU can't defend the 3, coming off 23 point beatdown)
Gonzaga -11.5 @ Portland (Beat them by 40 two weeks ago)
 
Someone help me understand why these aren't sucker bets?

Miami +1 @ Pitt (I just can't believe Pitt is favored in this one)
Seton Hall -1.5 @ Butler (Butler is decimated by injuries, have 7 Big East losses by 20+)
Clemson -3.5 @ FSU (FSU can't defend the 3, coming off 23 point beatdown)
Gonzaga -11.5 @ Portland (Beat them by 40 two weeks ago)
I'll parlay it
 
I mean, those are all exactly the computer lines. You might have a case with Butler but Manny Bates is back for them and he's pretty clearly their most important player.
 
I mean, those are all exactly the computer lines. You might have a case with Butler but Manny Bates is back for them and he's pretty clearly their most important player.
Seems like the computers are still punishing Clemson for the ragged OOC results. How many points do they normally give the home team?
 
Someone help me understand why these aren't sucker bets?

Miami +1 @ Pitt (I just can't believe Pitt is favored in this one)
Seton Hall -1.5 @ Butler (Butler is decimated by injuries, have 7 Big East losses by 20+)
Clemson -3.5 @ FSU (FSU can't defend the 3, coming off 23 point beatdown)
Gonzaga -11.5 @ Portland (Beat them by 40 two weeks ago)


Seems like the computers are still punishing Clemson for the ragged OOC results. How many points do they normally give the home team?


Alex Hemenway has been out for Clemson for a while, a former starter. Chase Hunter has missed the last 3 games and is out I think. And Brevin Galloway just had surgery and is for sure out against Florida State. Clemson is a good team, but you cant keep losing guards left and right to injury and expect to keep winning close games, especially when the game is on the road. When you lose 3 of your top 5 scorers, things get impacted severely. If Clemson had a tougher acc schedule, their record wouldn't be nearly as good as what it is right now with the injury issues they currently now face.


Torvik has the Pitt line at -1.9. Personally, Ive thought Miami has been overrated all season because of an easy schedule and I have called for them to partially collapse in the past and come back to the bubble. RPI and the polls like Miami, Torvik and Pomeroy think Miami is overrated. Miami's road record is 4-3. Both Pitt and Miami were red hot shooting last game, both should come back to earth next game. This game to me is a coin flip, but I have doubts Miami shoots it on the road red hot again in back to back road games, even against an average defense that we have. Miami is also one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the country, an area where we should get 2nd chance points against them. Pitt needs to control the defensive glass and limit 2nd chance points. Do that, and I like our chances if we dont turn the ball over a lot.
 
Someone help me understand why these aren't sucker bets?

Miami +1 @ Pitt (I just can't believe Pitt is favored in this one)
Seton Hall -1.5 @ Butler (Butler is decimated by injuries, have 7 Big East losses by 20+)
Clemson -3.5 @ FSU (FSU can't defend the 3, coming off 23 point beatdown)
Gonzaga -11.5 @ Portland (Beat them by 40 two weeks ago)

I would have said Miami would be favored by 2 or 3.

Clemson isnt going to lose to FSU so you'd think they'd win by 4 or more. That seems like a great bet. FSU shot their load vs us.
 
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Alex Hemenway has been out for Clemson for a while, a former starter. Chase Hunter has missed the last 3 games and is out I think. And Brevin Galloway just had surgery and is for sure out against Florida State. Clemson is a good team, but you cant keep losing guards left and right to injury and expect to keep winning close games, especially when the game is on the road. When you lose 3 of your top 5 scorers, things get impacted severely. If Clemson had a tougher acc schedule, their record wouldn't be nearly as good as what it is right now with the injury issues they currently now face.


Torvik has the Pitt line at -1.9. Personally, Ive thought Miami has been overrated all season because of an easy schedule and I have called for them to partially collapse in the past and come back to the bubble. RPI and the polls like Miami, Torvik and Pomeroy think Miami is overrated. Miami's road record is 4-3. Both Pitt and Miami were red hot shooting last game, both should come back to earth next game. This game to me is a coin flip, but I have doubts Miami shoots it on the road red hot again in back to back road games, even against an average defense that we have. Miami is also one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the country, an area where we should get 2nd chance points against them. Pitt needs to control the defensive glass and limit 2nd chance points. Do that, and I like our chances if we dont turn the ball over a lot.
Appreciate it. I didn't realize Clemson was dealing with so many injuries. Sounds like one to stay away from.

I'll probably just buy Miami up to around +7.5 and pair it with Gonzaga -5 or so for around even money. Gonzaga has struggled the past two games and is due for a break out. I've been riding Portland on their individual team overs, but they are a defensive sieve.

I will probably just avoid Seton Hall. Seems too easy.
 
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Someone help me understand why these aren't sucker bets?

Miami +1 @ Pitt (I just can't believe Pitt is favored in this one)


All the metrics sites have the game between Miami -1 and Pitt -2.

Miami is a little better and Pitt is at home. Just out of curiosity, what were you expecting it to be?
 
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I bet a lot and the pitt line doesnt surprise me. Mainly because we are really good at home. I only bet games with a point spread 3 or less either way and I take the home team. Teams are night and day at home in college. It hit me last year at ECU games. Get blown out on the road and play with most everyone at home. Always take the home team in college betting. I went 9-2 on Thursday night. It isnt like that every night but over the long haul I have done well 2 years straight with my system. And average bettors take the road team because they think like you posted. Take out all emotion when betting.
 
WVU favored by 3 at home over Auburn is surprising. Massive game for WVU (and Pitt) If they can win it, they definitely go to the NCAAT if they can get to 7-11 in the Big 12. And maybe even 6-12 if they win a few in KC.
 
All the metrics sites have the game between Miami -1 and Pitt -2.

Miami is a little better and Pitt is at home. Just out of curiosity, what were you expecting it to be?
Miami -2/3. Glad I got my bets in last night at Miami +1 and Gonzaga -11.5. They have already moved to Miami -1 and Gonzaga -13.

I teased both games by 6. I like my position. I get to pull for a Pitt win with a nice cushion on Miami.
 
I bet a lot and the pitt line doesnt surprise me. Mainly because we are really good at home. I only bet games with a point spread 3 or less either way and I take the home team. Teams are night and day at home in college. It hit me last year at ECU games. Get blown out on the road and play with most everyone at home. Always take the home team in college betting. I went 9-2 on Thursday night. It isnt like that every night but over the long haul I have done well 2 years straight with my system. And average bettors take the road team because they think like you posted. Take out all emotion when betting.
Is Pitt really good at home though? We probably should have lost three in a row there.
 
Miami -2/3. Glad I got my bets in last night at Miami +1 and Gonzaga -11.5. They have already moved to Miami -1 and Gonzaga -13.

I teased both games by 6. I like my position. I get to pull for a Pitt win with a nice cushion on Miami.

I normally don't bet but I put $104 on Miami to win $100 to ease my pain if we lose. If we win, we probably make the NCAAT (not just due to that win but projected wins coming up) IMO so for me its either the NCAAT and a $104 loss or a Pitt loss and a $100 win.
 
I normally don't bet but I put $104 on Miami to win $100 to ease my pain if we lose. If we win, we probably make the NCAAT (not just due to that win but projected wins coming up) IMO so for me its either the NCAAT and a $104 loss or a Pitt loss and a $100 win.
I’m actually feeling a bit better about Pitt this morning than I was all week so I took both sides. I have:

Miami +7 & Gonzaga -5.5
Pitt +7 & TCU +5.5
Texas +11.5 & Vandy +16.5
 
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