What's up with the Coronavirus numbers???

[YourPittDanceTeam]

Just flipping through the channels and saw that cnn is reporting that there are 26,069 deaths in the USA from the Coronavirus (Dec.2019-today). msnbc is reporting that there are 29.730 and Fox News is reporting 26,059. Another I saw (can't remember which one) was reporting 29,897. Which is it???
Also, of those who have deaths have been attributed to the Coronavirus, how many of them actually died because of the virus? Most of those who have died, had been dealing with other major medical issues for years, did they die from one of those or did they actually die from the Coronavirus?
On a separate but related subject, what is the "average" number of deaths that occur in the USA during the same amount of time (Dec.2019-today), during non-Coronavirus years?
I bet if we removed those folks who actually have passed away from one of their "pre-existing" medical issues and the number of Americans who would normally have passed away during a non-Coronavirus time period, the number of deaths from the Coronavirus would decrease quite a bit.
If that was done, then we would get a true and accurate number of how many people have died due to the Coronavirus. Until that is done, all the media and politicians are doing with these daily press conferences/updates is scaring a lot of people.

 

[Las Panteras]

While I dont disagree with much of this, there are ex NFL players, ex mens BB players at the highest level with no pre-existing conditions dying from this virus.

That what scares the crap out of me.

 

[Chescat]

Some pundits (and I use that term loosely) are saying the numbers are
inflated because some of these people were old and/or had other
compromising issues and would have died anyway.
Dr. Birx is on record diagreeing with this notion, because they DID
die of the virus. The fact that they had the virus is what killed them
despite the fact that they had other issues.

 

[YourPittDanceTeam]

While I dont disagree with much of this, there are ex NFL players, ex mens BB players at the highest level with no pre-existing conditions dying from this virus.

That what scares the crap out of me.

I am not saying that people without a pre-existing condition will not die from the virus. I am saying that I do believe that the numbers associated with those who have passed away are not accurate. I did find some research since the time of my original post. According to a report released by the CDC in 2017, there are on average 7,708 deaths in the USA daily. In fact, the three highest months were January, February and December with the following numbers...8,378, 8,351 and 8,344 per day.
It would be nice to see the numbers for 2018, 2019 and 2020 to see how they compare to the 2017 numbers.

 

[YourPittDanceTeam]

Some pundits (and I use that term loosely) are saying the numbers are
inflated because some of these people were old and/or had other
compromisingissues and would have died anyway.
Dr. Birx is on reconord diagreeing with this notion, because they DID
die of the virus. The fact that they had the virus is what killed them
despite the fact that they had other issues.

Now, I am pretty sure that DR. Birx has access to more information then I do, BUT there is no way that she knows for certain how those people passed away. Don't even know if it can be officially determined by an autopsy, but it would certainly help.

 

[PittPanther44]

It’s pretty nuanced - the thing I would suggest to people is not to automatically have an opinion given you by your political party. I am so sick of that. Everyone think for themselves and look for facts.

there were some deaths added that were “probable” but not confirmed. Essentially if x number of people have been dying in NYC March and April every year, there is a +6000 or so anomaly to that this year. In that same period, there were like 3000k actual virus deaths claimed. These numbers aren’t exact, but you get the idea that you can conclude that it was the probably cause for those other deaths if the symptoms were there. So the conclusion by some was that they were undercounted

On the other hand, there are those that think the numbers are overstated because people had conditions that got them, but they happened to be positive. Did it contribute? Maybe maybe not. Probably depends on the person.

So it’s impossible to make it an exact science. I think there are arguments both ways, but the numbers are directionally accurate.

 

[YourPittDanceTeam]

It’s pretty nuanced - the thing I would suggest to people is not to automatically have an opinion given you by your political party. I am so sick of that. Everyone think for themselves and look for facts.

there were some deaths added that were “probable” but not confirmed. Essentially if x number of people have been dying in NYC March and April every year, there is a +6000 or so anomaly to that this year. In that same period, there were like 3000k actual virus deaths claimed. These numbers aren’t exact, but you get the idea that you can conclude that it was the probably cause for those other deaths if the symptoms were there. So the conclusion by some was that they were undercounted

On the other hand, there are those that think the numbers are overstated because people had conditions that got them, but they happened to be positive. Did it contribute? Maybe maybe not. Probably depends on the person.

So it’s impossible to make it an exact science. I think there are arguments both ways, but the numbers are directionally accurate.

My statements are not politically motivated, never have been never will be. They are based upon my education and my 7 years of work experience in the field of public health. As I said, I am quite sure that some folks have died because of the virus, I'm just not sure those numbers being shown are accurate.

 

[Chescat]

Now, I am pretty sure that DR. Birx has access to more information then I do, BUT there is no way that she knows for certain how those people passed away. Don't even know if it can be officially determined by an autopsy, but it would certainly help.

Tell ya what Dance Team, although I respect peoples' opinions on
here, I'm going with Dr. Birx on this one.

 

[YourPittDanceTeam]

Tell ya what Dance Team, although I respect peoples' opinions on
here, I'm going with Dr. Birx on this one.

She is a highly educated and well respected doctor, I can understand your support for her opinion. That being said, I stand by my statement that not all of those people listed as dying from the Coronavirus, actually died from it. It may have been a complicating factor, but not the actual single cause of their death.

 

[Chescat]

That's ok, stick with your opinion if you like. Dr Birx I'm sure relies
on science as opposed to opinions. If she were to give an opinion,
I'm sure it would be grounded in science, statistics and facts.

 

[Gunga_Galunga]

That being said, I stand by my statement that not all of those people listed as dying from the Coronavirus, actually died from it. It may have been a complicating factor, but not the actual single cause of their death.

Does it matter? You don't know either way. All you know is they died and have COVID. Most people are going to blame in on COVID.

I read that NY is no longer testing people who die for COVID. It's also possible that people are dying from COVID and not being counted.

 

[21Guns.]

She is a highly educated and well respected doctor, I can understand your support for her opinion. That being said, I stand by my statement that not all of those people listed as dying from the Coronavirus, actually died from it. It may have been a complicating factor, but not the actual single cause of their death.

Using that logic then according to you no one in the history of the world has died from aids/hiv. People die from aids due to illnesses like pneumonia that otherwise if they were healthy would have otherwise never gotten or been able to fight off.

The same is happening with the corona virus. The combination of a preexisting condition with corona virus are killing people. Some people are dying directly because of the virus but others are dying because of other complications that worsens preexisting conditions.

I have asthma and normally an asthma attack is not fatal for me. However if infected with corona virus the inflammation in my lungs caused by the virus could make an asthma attack fatal. Sure the virus it self did not kill me but I would likely still be alive if I didn’t have it.

So if this were to happen how would you classify this death? If you want to minimize the the impact of the virus you would say I died of an asthma attack. If you wanted to show how dangerous the virus is you would say it was a corona virus death.

To me not counting my death due to corona would be like not blaming alcohol as the cause of death if a drunk person fell off the curb and died. Sure technically blunt force trauma caused the death but if they weren’t drunk the wouldn’t have fallen. If I worked for the alcohol lobby sure as hell I am going to try and not count that as an alcohol related death. Common sense though says alcohol was a factor just as much as in a person who dies dies from alcohol like in the case of alcohol poisoning.

 

[steelcurtain55.]

A couple of things -

How come people in NY who did not test positive for Covid are now being counted as Covid deaths?

Why are influenza #'s down right now?

I'm willing to bet that these overall stats of this pandemic are going to be studied/sorted/analyzed for decades and what we see right now is not the clear picture.

 

[21Guns.]

A couple of things -

How come people in NY who did not test positive for Covid are now being counted as Covid deaths?

Why are influenza #'s down right now?

I'm willing to bet that these overall stats of this pandemic are going to be studied/sorted/analyzed for decades and what we see right now is not the clear picture.

They are counting deaths as probable cases if they have a valid reason to suspect them. Right now resources are still limited. They would rather get best guesses then wait for results. They may get reclassified later.

Common sense says influenza death are down because social distancing and other healthy practices also help stop the spread of influenza and not just Covid.

 

[joeydavid]

Just flipping through the channels and saw that cnn is reporting that there are 26,069 deaths in the USA from the Coronavirus (Dec.2019-today). msnbc is reporting that there are 29.730 and Fox News is reporting 26,059. Another I saw (can't remember which one) was reporting 29,897. Which is it???
Also, of those who have deaths have been attributed to the Coronavirus, how many of them actually died because of the virus? Most of those who have died, had been dealing with other major medical issues for years, did they die from one of those or did they actually die from the Coronavirus?
On a separate but related subject, what is the "average" number of deaths that occur in the USA during the same amount of time (Dec.2019-today), during non-Coronavirus years?
I bet if we removed those folks who actually have passed away from one of their "pre-existing" medical issues and the number of Americans who would normally have passed away during a non-Coronavirus time period, the number of deaths from the Coronavirus would decrease quite a bit.
If that was done, then we would get a true and accurate number of how many people have died due to the Coronavirus. Until that is done, all the media and politicians are doing with these daily press conferences/updates is scaring a lot of people.

The official numbers apparently don't include anyone who died outside of a hospital. That's been reported before and Cuomo just addressed this in one of his briefings.

 

[Gunga_Galunga]

A couple of things -

How come people in NY who did not test positive for Covid are now being counted as Covid deaths?

Why are influenza #'s down right now?

I'm willing to bet that these overall stats of this pandemic are going to be studied/sorted/analyzed for decades and what we see right now is not the clear picture.

Because they want to prioritize testing resources on people who are still alive.

As far as what we're seeing right now, it's far more likely that COVID deaths are being under reported than over reported.

 

[pittdan77]

The CDC knows it can't test everyone. They also know that a lot of people are just stupid or allergic and won't get vaccinated. So the CDC counts all pneumonia deaths as deaths from the flu during what they call the peak season. This is the way data works because it's nearly impossible to test everything. But nobody claims the flu data is inflated or wrong. In fact, it's been convenient to cite the upper limits of those numbers to downplay the effect of this virus.

To my knowledge, they are not necessarily doing postmortem testing and there are a lot of people dying that presented with symptoms but were told they couldn't be tested. In some cases, people go from mildly uncomfortable to dead quickly. I suspect that you'll see research years from now that will list confirmed deaths vs. deaths that were probably Covid but untested and the numbers will look much larger than what you're seeing today.

The differing numbers are probably dependent on the data source they're using and when they are updating those numbers. I've been following a few different sources and they refresh at different rates. Plus reporting isn't consistent. Big drop in reporting on Easter Sunday but a big bump the next day. There is also a lag in reporting from certain areas. Locally, it's been several days before a death is being officially reported. Real time data isn't necessarily the best. Never is.

 

[4Mark_Marty]

She is a highly educated and well respected doctor, I can understand your support for her opinion. That being said, I stand by my statement that not all of those people listed as dying from the Coronavirus, actually died from it. It may have been a complicating factor, but not the actual single cause of their death.

In which segment of public health do you have experience? In other words, are you a doctor, nurse, administrator, salesperson etc.? Your answer would lend credibility to your post.

 

[jivecat]

No doubt the virus spreads faster than the typical flu....but the long term issue is how does it impact the majority of the population. Not just those who have underlying health conditions. As the data is being broken down....we see that 94% of the deaths are from people 45 years old and older and most of them have underlying health concerns. The average age of death is over 72 years old. That would lead me to believe that schools, HS, and colleges would be less likely to have issues.

The more data we can collect, the better we will be able to adjust our lives to the virus and its impacts.

 

[PITTHiltonHead]

Interesting or curious.

This large group of celebrates, and politicians of all ages, all tested positive, don't have a lot of complicating comorbidities Tom Hanks, Rand Paul, Boris Johnson, Sophie Trudeau, Prince Charles, Kevin Durant, Sara Bareillies, Pink, her son, Rita Wilson, Idris Elba ( worlds sexiest man alive?) & gf Sabrina, Bravo host Andy Cohen, Chris Cuomo, Debi Mazar, Colton Underwood, Kristopher Kivji( game of thrones guy),Indira Varma, Olga Kurylenko ( James Bond fame), Daniel Kim ( People mag), Rachael Matthews, Placido Domingo ( famous old dude), Singer Charlotte Lawrence, Arron Tveit, Laura Bell Bundy, Jackson Browne ( the singer old dude too). Slim Thug ( Instagram fame), Brook Baldwin, Sophie Trudeau, BBC News Dan Radcliffe, Rapper Kool John, Actress Tina McGee, Suttin Stracke ( Real Housewives), and Lee Anne's Mom from Top Chef a long list of others are all now ok. Hummm.

There's a mix of young, old, and healthy.

Not one of that large large group died. Not that we want them to, but its an unfortunate outcome of Covid 19.

They recovered in two-three weeks, all smiling like nothing happened now.

Another group of the same did pass away but had complicating health factors which contributed to their deaths.

Curious when they're visible, we know them, they recover quickly, when we don't they're listed as mysterious deaths. The cable new reports they were young, healthy and suffered for a month before they passed.
Makes for great 24/7 news.

If perfectly healthy people are dropping in the streets like they report, the sample size that I showed would have have some real bad news to report. It didn't.

There's no vaccine, no medicine, no treatments so it shouldn't matter who you are or how much money you have you get it, you get over it, or not.

Its definitely a new virus that kills but maybe not as much as reported.

IMO many are dying from other things and recorded as Covid 19 deaths. But don't get me wrong people are dying from Covid 19 as well.

Look up Birxs. Lots of mention of her in this thread. She Birx said when this is over or is winding down they will have to examine the deaths to see what caused them, Covid 19, or other factors. Birx said they must get that right for historical purposes.

During this time deaths from other causes is trending down? Interesting.

Be safe, wear your mask, the masks actually improve some individuals appearance, lets recover and reopen as soon as possible.

GO PITT!

 

[YourPittDanceTeam]

Using that logic then according to you no one in the history of the world has died from aids/hiv. People die from aids due to illnesses like pneumonia that otherwise if they were healthy would have otherwise never gotten or been able to fight off.

The same is happening with the corona virus. The combination of a preexisting condition with corona virus are killing people. Some people are dying directly because of the virus but others are dying because of other complications that worsens preexisting conditions.

I have asthma and normally an asthma attack is not fatal for me. However if infected with corona virus the inflammation in my lungs caused by the virus could make an asthma attack fatal. Sure the virus it self did not kill me but I would likely still be alive if I didn’t have it.

So if this were to happen how would you classify this death? If you want to minimize the the impact of the virus you would say I died of an asthma attack. If you wanted to show how dangerous the virus is you would say it was a corona virus death.

To me not counting my death due to corona would be like not blaming alcohol as the cause of death if a drunk person fell off the curb and died. Sure technically blunt force trauma caused the death but if they weren’t drunk the wouldn’t have fallen. If I worked for the alcohol lobby sure as hell I am going to try and not count that as an alcohol related death. Common sense though says alcohol was a factor just as much as in a person who dies dies from alcohol like in the case of alcohol poisoning.

It is not my job to classify anyone's death. The point my original post was, the numbers being shown on the tv networks, more then likely, not as accurate as people would think.

Using that logic then according to you no one in the history of the world has died from aids/hiv. People die from aids due to illnesses like pneumonia that otherwise if they were healthy would have otherwise never gotten or been able to fight off.

The same is happening with the corona virus. The combination of a preexisting condition with corona virus are killing people. Some people are dying directly because of the virus but others are dying because of other complications that worsens preexisting conditions.

I have asthma and normally an asthma attack is not fatal for me. However if infected with corona virus the inflammation in my lungs caused by the virus could make an asthma attack fatal. Sure the virus it self did not kill me but I would likely still be alive if I didn’t have it.

So if this were to happen how would you classify this death? If you want to minimize the the impact of the virus you would say I died of an asthma attack. If you wanted to show how dangerous the virus is you would say it was a corona virus death.

To me not counting my death due to corona would be like not blaming alcohol as the cause of death if a drunk person fell off the curb and died. Sure technically blunt force trauma caused the death but if they weren’t drunk the wouldn’t have fallen. If I worked for the alcohol lobby sure as hell I am going to try and not count that as an alcohol related death. Common sense though says alcohol was a factor just as much as in a person who dies dies from alcohol like in the case of alcohol poisoning.

I am not responsible for making the official determination of how someone has died. So, how I would classify your example is irrelevant. I'm pretty sure that we could go back and forth all day giving examples of situations where a persons death could or could not be Coronavirus related, so why do it.
I am not saying that there aren't people who have died from the Coronavirus, I'm just questioning the data being reported and how it is being presented by the reporters on tv. For me, it has gotten to the point where I do not even watch the news any more. What's the point? It seems every network, especially the local ones, begin each telecast with how many more people have tested positive and died from the virus.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

It is not my job to classify anyone's death. The point my original post was, the numbers being shown on the tv networks, more then likely, not as accurate as people would think.
I am not responsible for making the official determination of how someone has died. So, how I would classify your example is irrelevant. I'm pretty sure that we could go back and forth all day giving examples of situations where a persons death could or could not be Coronavirus related, so why do it.
I am not saying that there aren't people who have died from the Coronavirus, I'm just questioning the data being reported and how it is being presented by the reporters on tv. For me, it has gotten to the point where I do not even watch the news any more. What's the point? It seems every network, especially the local ones, begin each telecast with how many more people have tested positive and died from the virus.

Interesting Stanford U. study out on the coronavirus penetration rate. Based on one Cailfornia county sampled, the researchers concluded that the number of people actually infected--counting those with no symptoms or mild symptoms who didn't show up in the official reported count of the number of cases---was actually between 50 and 85 times greater than the the number of reported cases.

What this suggests pending further research to verify (or contradict), is that the covid19 death rate (deaths divided by total number of infections) may actually only be in the range of 0.06% to 0.1% (Common Flu is about 0.1%) because instead of the 710,272 US cases reported (Worldometer today), the actual number of infections (counting asymptomatic and mild cases not reported) may really be in the range of 35 to 60 million people infected (roughly 10% to 20% of the US population).

If proven correct, this should be comforting to most of us personally--except for our valid fears for our at-risk loved ones who are elderly and/or have underlying health issues.

 

[SoufOaklin4Life]

Interesting Stanford U. study out on the coronavirus penetration rate. Based on one Cailfornia county sampled, the researchers concluded that the number of people actually infected--counting those with no symptoms or mild symptoms who didn't show up in the official reported count of the number of cases---was actually between 50 and 85 times greater than the the number of reported cases.

What this suggests pending further research to verify (or contradict), is that the covid19 death rate (deaths divided by infections) may actually only be in the range of 0.06% to 0.1% (Common Flu is about 0.1%) because instead of the 710,272 US cases reported (Worldometer today), the actual number of infections (counting asymptomatic and mild cases not reported) may really be in the range of 35 to 60 million people infected (roughly 10% to 20% of the US population).

i think that’s a fairly dangerous presumption .

based on the mortality rate in our non-hotspot area being observed

 

[King Of All Message Boards]

i think that’s a fairly dangerous presumption .

based on the mortality rate in our non-hotspot area being observed

Due to the lack of testing availability we may never know the true stats.

I saw what DC saw. And wouldn’t the same apply here? Unless we have a better idea of the number of people truly infected or carrying - we may never know the true mortality rate.

And I’m not trying to downplay this thing. I am caring for an elderly parent who will almost certainly die if they get it.

 

[SoufOaklin4Life]

Due to the lack of testing availability we may never know the true stats.

I saw what DC saw. And wouldn’t the same apply here? Unless we have a better idea of the number of people truly infected or carrying - we may never know the true mortality rate.

And I’m not trying to downplay this thing. I am caring for an elderly parent who will almost certainly die if they get it.

I’m suggesting we know it’s highly contagious
We know the disease pathology is more deadly than flu -!including hypercoagulopathy states and cytokine storm associate reaction-

so - I’m reticent to any notion “it similar to the flu” schools of thoughts

 

[King Of All Message Boards]

I’m suggesting we know it’s highly contagious
We know the disease pathology is more deadly than flu -!including hypercoagulopathy states and cytokine storm associate reaction-

so - I’m reticent to any notion “it similar to the flu” schools of thoughts

Oh ok gotcha. It does seem pretty clear this is more dangerous/contagious than the flu. No argument there.

 

[SoufOaklin4Life]

Oh ok gotcha. It does seem pretty clear this is more dangerous/contagious than the flu. No argument there.

Unfortunately -
Most can’t separate the two things

so - increasing the denominator projections is used to achieve the desired economic ends

and hey - adjusting my schedules to primarily evenings and nights so I can watch the kid while my wife works from home -
And entering my basement , throwing my scrubs in the wash - washing up to my elbows so I can go upstairs and take a shower without seeing my family first -
Isn’t exactly convenient or a way I want life to continue on.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

Oh ok gotcha. It does seem pretty clear this is more dangerous/contagious than the flu. No argument there.

Agree. It is more dangerous than the Flu because it is more infectious (more easily transmitted) and, therefore, more total numbers of people will become infected and therefore more total numbers will die (overwhelmingly from among the at-risk population).

My only point was that on a personal risk basis for healthy non-elderly individuals their individual personal chance of dying (or even getting sick enough to be hospitalized) if they get infected appears to be very small.

 

[SoufOaklin4Life]

Agree. It is more dangerous than the Flu because it is more infectious (more easily transmitted) and, therefore, more total numbers of people will become infected and therefore more total numbers will die (overwhelmingly from among the at-risk population).

My only point was that on a personal risk basis for healthy non-elderly individuals their individual personal chance of dying (or even getting sick enough to be hospitalized) if they get infected appears to be very small.

But that’s simply not honest

Healthy younger people are dying from covid19
That doesn’t happen with influenza

 

[VincePITT]

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

 

[rockypanther]

Just flipping through the channels and saw that cnn is reporting that there are 26,069 deaths in the USA from the Coronavirus (Dec.2019-today). msnbc is reporting that there are 29.730 and Fox News is reporting 26,059. Another I saw (can't remember which one) was reporting 29,897. Which is it???
Also, of those who have deaths have been attributed to the Coronavirus, how many of them actually died because of the virus? Most of those who have died, had been dealing with other major medical issues for years, did they die from one of those or did they actually die from the Coronavirus?
On a separate but related subject, what is the "average" number of deaths that occur in the USA during the same amount of time (Dec.2019-today), during non-Coronavirus years?
I bet if we removed those folks who actually have passed away from one of their "pre-existing" medical issues and the number of Americans who would normally have passed away during a non-Coronavirus time period, the number of deaths from the Coronavirus would decrease quite a bit.
If that was done, then we would get a true and accurate number of how many people have died due to the Coronavirus. Until that is done, all the media and politicians are doing with these daily press conferences/updates is scaring a lot of people.

But because we have so few tests, how many ppl actually died from symptoms related to the coronavirus but there weren't tests available? And where do you think the media is getting these numbers? If from anyone with any connection to the federal government than how do you trust those numbers because they want less reported cases not more to be reported. The numbers are underreported.

 

[SoufOaklin4Life]

But because we have so few tests, how many ppl actually died from symptoms related to the coronavirus but there weren't tests available? And where do you think the media is getting these numbers? If from anyone with any connection to the federal government than how do you trust those numbers because they want less reported cases not more to be reported. The numbers are underreported.

This is true

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

But that’s simply not honest

Healthy younger people are dying from covid19
That doesn’t happen with influenza

I believe you misunderstood me somewhat. I did not say that NO healthy younger people were dying from it. I only said their individual risk was, relative to the overall population, very low.

If the Stanford study is ultimately confirmed, the risk for younger healthier people who get infected to die should be statistically smaller than 0.1%. That is, it would be below the overall 1 in 1000 (0.1%) risk to the overall population that the Stanford study suggests. That is a very low level of risk, IMHO.

Caveat: Every individual has their own personal level of risk tolerance and so some might not perceive that level of risk as very low.

 

[jivecat]

I realize this is an exceptionally small sample size but based on the findings, it tells us two things.

1) This spreads incredibly quick....maybe much faster then we realize since we can't test everyone at this point.

2) More people have the antibodies to beat this and are not effected at all.

Unfortunately, it will spread to those who can't beat it.

https://www.businessinsider.com/cor...massachusetts-finds-32-percent-exposed-2020-4

 

[King Of All Message Boards]

I realize this is an exceptionally small sample size but based on the findings, it tells us two things.

1) This spreads incredibly quick....maybe much faster then we realize since we can't test everyone at this point.

2) More people have the antibodies to beat this and are not effected at all.

Unfortunately, it will spread to those who can't beat it.

https://www.businessinsider.com/cor...massachusetts-finds-32-percent-exposed-2020-4

The study in Santa Clara had a much more alarming percentage but the theme is the same. Certainly way too little to indicate any trend or draw any conclusions but it’s interesting. I would imagine other cities will be doing the same studies. Sooner than later.

 

[pittdan77]

This is anecdotal so take it for what it's worth. In the last week, my wife has spoken to a number of traveling nurses and doctors that she is friendly with that work in ICU's around the country. ALL OF THEM think that the real numbers will be significantly higher (cases and deaths) because they believe that the tests aren't working. One went so far to say that he has watched people who tested negative die who had the exact same symptoms as the person in the next room that tested positive.

The other comments that were true in every case is that they've never seen anything like this virus and what it does to people and that they are afraid of opening things back up because it will come right back.

Again, anecdotal so I'm not preaching gospel here. Just passing along what people with their faces down in this mess are saying.

 

[jivecat]

This is anecdotal so take it for what it's worth. In the last week, my wife has spoken to a number of traveling nurses and doctors that she is friendly with that work in ICU's around the country. ALL OF THEM think that the real numbers will be significantly higher (cases and deaths) because they believe that the tests aren't working. One went so far to say that he has watched people who tested negative die who had the exact same symptoms as the person in the next room that tested positive.

The other comments that were true in every case is that they've never seen anything like this virus and what it does to people and that they are afraid of opening things back up because it will come right back.

Again, anecdotal so I'm not preaching gospel here. Just passing along what people with their faces down in this mess are saying.

I don't doubt that. Most would agree that testing is the key to containing the virus and moving us towards a more "normal" life....whatever that will be in the future. My only comment is that when you have a hammer...every problem is a nail. So these travelling health professionals begin to see Covid in every patient in the ICU because that is what they are seeing most, Had it been the Gout, they would see those symptoms in each ICU patient. Also, identifying COVID as the killer in every case that tests positive on their death bed is clearly skewing the numbers.

This virus will decimate a retirement home, no doubt about that since the average age of death is in the 70's but let's not discount herd immunity and realize the only cure for this is to build antibodies in the general population.

 

[pittdan77]

I don't doubt that. Most would agree that testing is the key to containing the virus and moving us towards a more "normal" life....whatever that will be in the future. My only comment is that when you have a hammer...every problem is a nail. So these travelling health professionals begin to see Covid in every patient in the ICU because that is what they are seeing most, Had it been the Gout, they would see those symptoms in each ICU patient. Also, identifying COVID as the killer in every case that tests positive on their death bed is clearly skewing the numbers.

This virus will decimate a retirement home, no doubt about that since the average age of death is in the 70's but let's not discount herd immunity and realize the only cure for this is to build antibodies in the general population.

I’ll leave it to the health professionals to make the decisions. It took shutting the planet down to limit the damage. Your analysis is kind of like evacuating everyone from a hurricane and few people die so the next hurricane, the pragmatists figure evacuating wasn’t really necessary because the last hurricane only killed people who stayed behind and couldn’t swim.

 

[BusinessMajor78]

This article is one of the better that I've read regarding Covid and younger people.
It points out that young people will be infected as the denominator increases that's simple math.
Most will recover quickly, some a small percent will have severe infections, a very small percent might die because little is know about the health histories of young people. The only physicals most young people take are sports physicals which aren't very comprehensive.

I didn't take a real extensive full physical until I was in my forties, when my company offered me a large amount of insurance to go along with a really good job.

Up until a event like that most young people roll the dice.

Those young people who are dying most likely have underlying medical conditions that they don't even know about but will discover as they get older.

https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/17/...-people-sick-vulnerable-affected-severe-cases

A neighbors son has severe Covid reaction and they found out he had damaged his lungs from Vaping legal and illegal substances some the banned vaping material.

His parents had no idea he vaped since he did it out of the home.

The parents said the doctors are identifying Vaping as a bad news health wild card for the younger generation.

 

[jivecat]

How can you compare hurricane evacuations to a pandemic. That is a horrible analogy. A hurricane can kill everyone....based on what we are seeing....the corona virus tends to kill those with existing conditions and the elderly.

We have to move forward....does it mean opening everything...no way. The shutdown was a radical move to save people at risk and the healthcare system's capacity. It worked, thank God!! Now we need to adapt...selectively quarantine certain demographics, reduce contact particularly in cities, and react to hot spots as they develop. We need to re-condition the population to duck and weave through this virus by changing work conditions, hours, and social norms but we can't hide forever.