Everybody knows the recruiting bump from winning the ACC didn’t happen. But what this post presupposes is, what if it did?
This is going to be a tough sell with Pitt’s class currently ranked No. 50 in the nation, but bear with me as I give it a try.
I’ll say right off the bat that this class did not end up where I expected it to. There’s no need for receipts here - although there are plenty to be found - because I’ll plainly say that I thought Pitt would recruit a top-25 class featuring a few four-stars with a chance to sneak into the top 20 if one or two high-end guys chose the Panthers.
I said that a lot in the last year, and it didn’t happen. At least, the ranking prediction didn’t come to fruition.
What happened? Where did the expected momentum go?
I actually think we saw the momentum through the first eight months of the year.
Look back at June and consider what Pitt’s class looked like in the heat of the official visits. At one point, the Panthers had commitments from Jordan Bass, Isaiah Neal, Shadarian Harrison, Shelton Lewis and Brice Pollock. Set the stars aside - we’ll get to them in a second - and just look at the schools that Pitt beat for those commitments as well as the prospects themselves.
Those are legit big-time Power Five players. Guys with all-conference potential.
No, Pitt didn’t hold onto all of them; only three of those five signed with the Panthers. But getting the commitments initially reflected the recruiting momentum that existed for Pitt coming off the ACC championship.
I think the Hykeem Williams situation counts here, too. No, there are no consolation prizes or participation trophies; you either get a recruit or you don’t. But when was the last time Pitt had a five-star prospect visit three times like Williams did?
Yes, Tiquan Underwood’s connection to Williams and his family was the driving force there, but I think staying in the battle as long and as legitimately as Pitt did reflects some momentum.
The spring saw quite a few top recruits come to town for unofficial visits - again, that’s a reflection of recruiting momentum. It didn’t all sustain through the class, and decommitments definitely cost the Panthers with guys like Lewis, Pollock and Kenny Minchey.
But recruiting momentum isn’t only defined by what happens on Signing Day. That’s the ultimate verdict, of course, but if you look over the course of the full year and what Pitt was able to do in recruiting, from generating interest, securing visits and getting commitments, I think there was a bump.
The recruiting battles Pitt won to get Bass, Neal and Harrison, not to mention a few guys like Kenny Johnson or Lamar Seymore - those are battles the Panthers have not traditionally had a high rate of winning.
The stars and class rankings don’t necessarily reflect it. I can acknowledge that. But I can also say with a whole lot of certainty that Bass and Harrison are underrated. They really are. I don’t know what’s missing from bumping them to four-star status.
Now, I have a mixed track record of going to bat for three-stars-who-should-be-four-stars. Sometimes they hit (Jordan Addison, Israel Abanikanda) and sometimes they don’t (Khalil Anderson, Michael Smith). But I look at Bass and Harrison, I look at their film and their offer sheets and their potential, and they have every hallmark of four-star prospects.
If they had that ranking, if Pitt’s class had three four-star prospects instead of one, it would look a little different. It wouldn’t climb more than maybe one spot in the team rankings, but it would be much more palatable aesthetically.
For an interesting comparison, I happened to glance at Mississippi State’s class because I wanted to reconfirm that Brice Pollock did not get bumped to four-stars (he didn’t). The Bulldogs’ class is ranked No. 22 nationally, but they’re at that spot with just three four-star recruits - the same number Pitt would have if Bass and Harrison were rated appropriately.
One difference is that Mississippi State is being ranked on its top 20 commits (out of 25); Pitt only has 19 commitments total. So the Bulldogs aren’t suffering from their unranked Australian punter or two-star offensive lineman, whereas Pitt’s two-star quarterback and nine 5.5-rated three-stars are all counting (a few of those 5.5’s should be higher, which would help as well).
Ultimately, I can’t put it all on guys being underrated. That’s a bit of a cop-out, because every school in the country probably thinks it has some guys who are misevaluated by the rankings services. The Lewis and Pollock decommitments hurt, as did the loss of Kenny Minchey. Missing on the two local four-stars - Rodney Gallagher and Ta’Mere Robinson - also put a serious strain on the expectations that I had for the class.
So it’s a mixed bag. I think the defensive recruiting in this class was really good. I think the quarterback and offensive line recruiting is a bit of a question mark. The receivers look good, but someone will need to emerge from that group as a real playmaker. The running backs will be TBD until they get on the field and do something.
Is the class disappointing from a rankings perspective? Yes. I thought Pitt would get a top-25 class, and that didn’t happen, for a variety of reasons. Decommitments, missing on the top locals and guys being underrated - it all contributes. I have faith that the defensive recruits in this class will be really good; the staff just needs to be right about some of the offensive players. If they are, it should be a class that helps build another team that can contend in the ACC.
This is going to be a tough sell with Pitt’s class currently ranked No. 50 in the nation, but bear with me as I give it a try.
I’ll say right off the bat that this class did not end up where I expected it to. There’s no need for receipts here - although there are plenty to be found - because I’ll plainly say that I thought Pitt would recruit a top-25 class featuring a few four-stars with a chance to sneak into the top 20 if one or two high-end guys chose the Panthers.
I said that a lot in the last year, and it didn’t happen. At least, the ranking prediction didn’t come to fruition.
What happened? Where did the expected momentum go?
I actually think we saw the momentum through the first eight months of the year.
Look back at June and consider what Pitt’s class looked like in the heat of the official visits. At one point, the Panthers had commitments from Jordan Bass, Isaiah Neal, Shadarian Harrison, Shelton Lewis and Brice Pollock. Set the stars aside - we’ll get to them in a second - and just look at the schools that Pitt beat for those commitments as well as the prospects themselves.
Those are legit big-time Power Five players. Guys with all-conference potential.
No, Pitt didn’t hold onto all of them; only three of those five signed with the Panthers. But getting the commitments initially reflected the recruiting momentum that existed for Pitt coming off the ACC championship.
I think the Hykeem Williams situation counts here, too. No, there are no consolation prizes or participation trophies; you either get a recruit or you don’t. But when was the last time Pitt had a five-star prospect visit three times like Williams did?
Yes, Tiquan Underwood’s connection to Williams and his family was the driving force there, but I think staying in the battle as long and as legitimately as Pitt did reflects some momentum.
The spring saw quite a few top recruits come to town for unofficial visits - again, that’s a reflection of recruiting momentum. It didn’t all sustain through the class, and decommitments definitely cost the Panthers with guys like Lewis, Pollock and Kenny Minchey.
But recruiting momentum isn’t only defined by what happens on Signing Day. That’s the ultimate verdict, of course, but if you look over the course of the full year and what Pitt was able to do in recruiting, from generating interest, securing visits and getting commitments, I think there was a bump.
The recruiting battles Pitt won to get Bass, Neal and Harrison, not to mention a few guys like Kenny Johnson or Lamar Seymore - those are battles the Panthers have not traditionally had a high rate of winning.
The stars and class rankings don’t necessarily reflect it. I can acknowledge that. But I can also say with a whole lot of certainty that Bass and Harrison are underrated. They really are. I don’t know what’s missing from bumping them to four-star status.
Now, I have a mixed track record of going to bat for three-stars-who-should-be-four-stars. Sometimes they hit (Jordan Addison, Israel Abanikanda) and sometimes they don’t (Khalil Anderson, Michael Smith). But I look at Bass and Harrison, I look at their film and their offer sheets and their potential, and they have every hallmark of four-star prospects.
If they had that ranking, if Pitt’s class had three four-star prospects instead of one, it would look a little different. It wouldn’t climb more than maybe one spot in the team rankings, but it would be much more palatable aesthetically.
For an interesting comparison, I happened to glance at Mississippi State’s class because I wanted to reconfirm that Brice Pollock did not get bumped to four-stars (he didn’t). The Bulldogs’ class is ranked No. 22 nationally, but they’re at that spot with just three four-star recruits - the same number Pitt would have if Bass and Harrison were rated appropriately.
One difference is that Mississippi State is being ranked on its top 20 commits (out of 25); Pitt only has 19 commitments total. So the Bulldogs aren’t suffering from their unranked Australian punter or two-star offensive lineman, whereas Pitt’s two-star quarterback and nine 5.5-rated three-stars are all counting (a few of those 5.5’s should be higher, which would help as well).
Ultimately, I can’t put it all on guys being underrated. That’s a bit of a cop-out, because every school in the country probably thinks it has some guys who are misevaluated by the rankings services. The Lewis and Pollock decommitments hurt, as did the loss of Kenny Minchey. Missing on the two local four-stars - Rodney Gallagher and Ta’Mere Robinson - also put a serious strain on the expectations that I had for the class.
So it’s a mixed bag. I think the defensive recruiting in this class was really good. I think the quarterback and offensive line recruiting is a bit of a question mark. The receivers look good, but someone will need to emerge from that group as a real playmaker. The running backs will be TBD until they get on the field and do something.
Is the class disappointing from a rankings perspective? Yes. I thought Pitt would get a top-25 class, and that didn’t happen, for a variety of reasons. Decommitments, missing on the top locals and guys being underrated - it all contributes. I have faith that the defensive recruits in this class will be really good; the staff just needs to be right about some of the offensive players. If they are, it should be a class that helps build another team that can contend in the ACC.
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