Whirly's Mock Bracket - 3/10/16

[whirlybird optio]

Time for a mock bracket...

How I think the committee would pick the field today:

EAST

In Brooklyn:

1) Villanova
16)Farleigh Dickerson

8) Oregon St
9) Pitt

In Providence:

4) Maryland
13) Stony Brook

5) Kentucky
12) Akron

In Denver

3) Utah
14) Iona

6) Dayton
11) Gonzaga

In Raleigh

7) Baylor
10) Cincinnati

2) UNC
15) Green Bay

Comments: Panthers get on the board early. I've always anticipated an ACC team potentially squaring off with Nova in Brooklyn in Rd 2. Has Syracuse beaten us, I would have had them there. Maryland-Kentucky an interesting Rd 2 game.


Midwest:

In Des Moines:

1) Kansas
16) Holy Cross/Hampton

8) Providence
9) South Carolina

In Denver:

4) Purdue
13) UNC Wilmington

5) Arizona
12) Yale

In Brooklyn

6) Wisconsin
11) Vandy/Wichita St

3) Miami (FL)
14) Hawaii

In Spokane

7) Seton Hall
10) Texas Tech

2) Oregon
15) Weber St

Comments: Kansas, the #1 overall seed, gets the softest bracket. Indiana, as the 4 seed, perhaps their toughest competition. Wichita is my last team in the field right now, I wouldn't have them in, but I suspect they will sneak in. Their profile fits the type of team usually sent to Dayton.

SOUTH:

In Raleigh:

1) Virginia
16) Austin Peay

8) USC
9) St Joseph

In Oklahoma City

4) Texas A&M
13) UT Chattanooga

5) Iowa State
12) Little Rock

In Spokane:

6) Iowa
11) Uconn/Syracuse

3) West Virginia
14) Mid Tennesse St

In Providence:

7) Notre Dame
10) VCU

2) Xavier
15) UNC Asheville

Comments: Xavier and WVU very close on the 2/3 line, I gave slight edge to Xavier. Syracuse still in bracket based upon Boehem factor, and wins over 3 teams in the field in non-conference schedule. Wins in league @Duke, ND. Head to head win over St Bonaventure could be a hidden tiebreaker game no one is talking about.

WEST:

In St Louis

1) Michigan St
16) Texas Southern/Florida Gulf Coast

8) Temple
9) Butler

In St Louis

5) Cal
12) Northern Iowa

4) Duke
13) South Dakota St

In Des Moines

6) Texas
11) SDSU

3) Indiana
14) SF Austin

In Oklahoma City

7) Colorado
10) St Bonaventure

2) Oklahoma
15) New Mexico St

Comments: Michigan St rallies late to grab final 1 seed. Duke-Michigan St-Indiana-Oklahoma would be an attractive foursome in the Sweet 16.

Last 4 in: Uconn-Vandy-Wichita-Cuse
First 4 out: Tulsa-Monmouth-Michigan-GW
Next 4 out: Florida-Ohio St-St Mary-Valpo

Tulsa and Uconn really a coin flip. St Mary just not close to the field if you analyze resume. 21 wins over RPI 130+, and a 18!!! wins over 220+. That's a staggering number. For context, Pitt has 5. Syracuse has 4 (Although they lost to St Johns). It's not close.

Vandy still in field due to strong SOS, and also, if you look at Vandy to Tulsa, Tulsa split with Uconn/Temple/Cincy. Vandy split games with Kentucky/A&M, and I think SEC slightly better, so they get the nod.

If Uconn loses tomorrow, and Tulsa wins, I think Tulsa goes into field. If Cincy loses, they swap spots with Uconn.



HAIL TO PITT!

 

[PittPanther84]

I like the way your bracket is looking....

I usually would not like an 8-9 seed but with NOVA being the 1 on our side makes me feel better

 

[DT_PITT]

Time for a mock bracket...

How I think the committee would pick the field today:

EAST

In Brooklyn:

1) Villanova
16)Farleigh Dickerson

8) Oregon St
9) Pitt

In Providence:

4) Maryland
13) Stony Brook

5) Kentucky
12) Akron

In Denver

3) Utah
14) Iona

6) Dayton
11) Gonzaga

In Raleigh

7) Baylor
10) Cincinnati

2) UNC
15) Green Bay

Comments: Panthers get on the board early. I've always anticipated an ACC team potentially squaring off with Nova in Brooklyn in Rd 2. Has Syracuse beaten us, I would have had them there. Maryland-Kentucky an interesting Rd 2 game.


Midwest:

In Des Moines:

1) Kansas
16) Holy Cross/Hampton

8) Providence
9) South Carolina

In Denver:

4) Purdue
13) UNC Wilmington

5) Arizona
12) Yale

In Brooklyn

6) Wisconsin
11) Vandy/Wichita St

3) Miami (FL)
14) Hawaii

In Spokane

7) Seton Hall
10) Texas Tech

2) Oregon
15) Weber St

Comments: Kansas, the #1 overall seed, gets the softest bracket. Indiana, as the 4 seed, perhaps their toughest competition. Wichita is my last team in the field right now, I wouldn't have them in, but I suspect they will sneak in. Their profile fits the type of team usually sent to Dayton.

SOUTH:

In Raleigh:

1) Virginia
16) Austin Peay

8) USC
9) St Joseph

In Oklahoma City

4) Texas A&M
13) UT Chattanooga

5) Iowa State
12) Little Rock

In Spokane:

6) Iowa
11) Uconn/Syracuse

3) West Virginia
14) Mid Tennesse St

In Providence:

7) Notre Dame
10) VCU

2) Xavier
15) UNC Asheville

Comments: Xavier and WVU very close on the 2/3 line, I gave slight edge to Xavier. Syracuse still in bracket based upon Boehem factor, and wins over 3 teams in the field in non-conference schedule. Wins in league @Duke, ND. Head to head win over St Bonaventure could be a hidden tiebreaker game no one is talking about.

WEST:

In St Louis

1) Michigan St
16) Texas Southern/Florida Gulf Coast

8) Temple
9) Butler

In St Louis

5) Cal
12) Northern Iowa

4) Duke
13) South Dakota St

In Des Moines

6) Texas
11) SDSU

3) Indiana
14) SF Austin

In Oklahoma City

7) Colorado
10) St Bonaventure

2) Oklahoma
15) New Mexico St

Comments: Michigan St rallies late to grab final 1 seed. Duke-Michigan St-Indiana-Oklahoma would be an attractive foursome in the Sweet 16.

Last 4 in: Uconn-Vandy-Wichita-Cuse
First 4 out: Tulsa-Monmouth-Michigan-GW
Next 4 out: Florida-Ohio St-St Mary-Valpo

Tulsa and Uconn really a coin flip. St Mary just not close to the field if you analyze resume. 21 wins over RPI 130+, and a 18!!! wins over 220+. That's a staggering number. For context, Pitt has 5. Syracuse has 4 (Although they lost to St Johns). It's not close.

Vandy still in field due to strong SOS, and also, if you look at Vandy to Tulsa, Tulsa split with Uconn/Temple/Cincy. Vandy split games with Kentucky/A&M, and I think SEC slightly better, so they get the nod.

If Uconn loses tomorrow, and Tulsa wins, I think Tulsa goes into field. If Cincy loses, they swap spots with Uconn.



HAIL TO PITT!

Well done.

Purely a hunch, but I suspect we are going to be a 10-seed. It's based on my concern that Lunardi is getting some sort of inside information from the committee and that's where they are leaning.

I

 

[PittPoker]

C'mon, no way Pitt will be a 9 seed. We lost 3 of our final 4 games including an almost 20 point loss today on national television. Heck good ol' Joey Brackets has put us anywhere from a 10 seed to Dayton to being left out(depending on his mood at the moment).

 

[cabe23]

Nice bracket and thanks for taking the time to do it. I'd be pretty happy if what you said turned out to be the case. I could see us being a 10 seed too, really I just want to avoid a play in. Cuse-Uconn in Dayton would be pretty hilarious, and almost too good to be true. A 10 seed would in a way be more favorable since 7-10 seeds are all similar in that they are essentially bubble teams, or close to it. If you manage to win the first round you get a 2 seed as opposed to a 1 seed and that makes a big difference. Anyway, the committee does sometimes move teams up or down a seed for match ups. A Pitt-Nova 2nd round game in Brooklyn would be pretty attractive, especially with concerns about attendance starting to become more acute.

 

[DT_PITT]

C'mon, no way Pitt will be a 9 seed. We lost 3 of our final 4 games including an almost 20 point loss today on national television. Heck good ol' Joey Brackets has put us anywhere from a 10 seed to Dayton to being left out(depending on his mood at the moment).

Jerry Palm has us as a 9-seed.

 

[California Panther]

Would the Pitt OSU game end up 3-0 again?

 

[jd99]

Well done.

Purely a hunch, but I suspect we are going to be a 10-seed. It's based on my concern that Lunardi is getting some sort of inside information from the committee and that's where they are leaning.

I

I'm curious as to why you think that Lunardi gets inside information. I am not saying I don't believe that but I'm just wondering where your thinking/information comes from on that. Because in my mind, while he has had great media success, I'm not sure that he has had great bracket success when compared with other bracketologists.

 

[DT_PITT]

I'm curious as to why you think that Lunardi gets inside information. I am not saying I don't believe that but I'm just wondering where your thinking/information comes from on that. Because in my mind, while he has had great media success, I'm not sure that he has had great bracket success when compared with other bracketologists.

Just a hunch based on how he continues to bring up "new" things the committee could be taking into account.

I agree that his track record is mediocre.

But he is the highest profile bracket guy. One would wonder if he is being "used" to float some possibilities so that they are as shocking when they come to pass.

This does sound a little too conspiracy-ish, and that's not my intention.

Like I said -- just a hunch.

But if we end up playing in Dayton, then you'd have to wonder a little bit more.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Heck good ol' Joey Brackets has put us anywhere from a 10 seed to Dayton to being left out(depending on his mood at the moment).

Of course he's also the guy who moved us DOWN after beating a team that he had in the bracket and he moved a team ahead of us because they beat a team that went 5-13 in their conference.

In short, there are a lot better people to be paying attention to rather than Joey Racket.

 

[jd99]

Just a hunch based on how he continues to bring up "new" things the committee could be taking into account.

I agree that his track record is mediocre.

But he is the highest profile bracket guy. One would wonder if he is being "used" to float some possibilities so that they are as shocking when they come to pass.

This does sound a little too conspiracy-ish, and that's not my intention.

Like I said -- just a hunch.

But if we end up playing in Dayton, then you'd have to wonder a little bit more.

Interesting thoughts - and not out of the realm of possibility for sure. And I agree - if Pitt is in Dayton I buy it. Completely.

 

[UPitt '89]

Well done.

Purely a hunch, but I suspect we are going to be a 10-seed. It's based on my concern that Lunardi is getting some sort of inside information from the committee and that's where they are leaning.

I

If Lunardi gets inside info from the committee, how come he is the 38th-ranked bracketologist - as far as accuracy - over the past few years? According to bracketmatrix.com.

 

[levance2]

Just a hunch based on how he continues to bring up "new" things the committee could be taking into account.

I agree that his track record is mediocre

I saw an interview with the committee chair on Thursday morning and he said their agenda for Thursday was just to "get some more teams on the board." As in, poll for some more "locks" or anyone who might be close to that. They are miles away from an ordered list of 68, so the idea that he has inside info "from the committee" is specious. Could he have info from a select few members who have an agenda? Sure.

I would not expect a tentative decision on a seed for Pitt until late Friday.

 

[Saboteur]

If Lunardi gets inside info from the committee, how come he is the 38th-ranked bracketologist - as far as accuracy - over the past few years? According to bracketmatrix.com.

Shame on you for introducing facts into this debate!

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I like the way your bracket is looking....

I usually would not like an 8-9 seed but with NOVA being the 1 on our side makes me feel better

Nova is better than us, no doubt. However, they would be the 4th or 5th best team in the ACC so they are beatable. Like for example, there's a 0% chance we beat Kansas or Izzo in March but like a 25% chance we beat Nova. I would want to avoid Kansas and MSU.

I do think Nova has to win the BE Tournament to get a 1......and even then, I'm not sure they get it. Remember, UVa has a head to head win over them.

 

[levance2]

Nova is better than us, no doubt. However, they would be the 4th or 5th best team in the ACC so they are beatable. Like for example, there's a 0% chance we beat Kansas or Izzo in March but like a 25% chance we beat Nova. I would want to avoid Kansas and MSU.

Didn't you also say there was no way Pitt could beat Syracuse three times?

 

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

Teams to root against today:

Michigan against IU
Florida against A&M
UConn against UC
GW against ST Joes
tOSU against Mich State
St Bonnie against Davidson
Tulsa against Memphis

 

[whirlybird optio]

Teams to root against today:

Michigan against IU
Florida against A&M
UConn against UC
GW against ST Joes
tOSU against Mich State
St Bonnie against Davidson
Tulsa against Memphis

That's a good list, I would imagine every team on that list, with the possible exceptions of Cincy and S Bonnies, is behind Pitt right now. A loss by Cincy or St Bonnies I think would drop them below us, if they already aren't.

I do not think one more win, by any of those teams, would be enough to pass us. Certainly not from the Big 10/SEC teams. UConn would be close.

I might add root against Georgia/LSU, only because I think they have a legit shot to win the auto-bid, which they would need.

Also, SDSU is lurking out there as a bid stealer, but again, if we are a 9/10 seed now, and they are a 12, I don't see them passing us with a bad loss in a conference tournament.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

I can't see any way SDST gets an at large bid. Their resume is bad, and any loss in their conference tournament would add another bad loss.

 

[whirlybird optio]

I can't see any way SDST gets an at large bid. Their resume is bad, and any loss in their conference tournament would add another bad loss.

Their resume is very similar to Wichita. One good OOC win, a lot of OOC losses, and dominating a bad league.

That's why I have St mary's below Wichita, and I would have them below SDSU. St mary's didn't even leave the state of california in the OOC, they played no one. At least the other two, and Monmouth, have a good win OOC.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Their resume is very similar to Wichita. One good OOC win, a lot of OOC losses, and dominating a bad league.

That's why I have St mary's below Wichita, and I would have them below SDSU. St mary's didn't even leave the state of california in the OOC, they played no one. At least the other two, and Monmouth, have a good win OOC.

No way, SDSU gets left out with a loss so yea, root for them.

Also, root against Houston. You could have a Houston/Tulsa semifinal with the winner going for an auto bid in a very winnable game Sunday.

 

[Harve74]

I don't really mind if we're a 9 or a 10. A 10 should give us a better chance in a second round game. There's probably not so much difference in an 8 or a 7 as the first round game.

At some point, the bracketologist wannabee's and even the committee probably should recognize that overall SOS, not OOC SOS is the pertinent number. Overemphasizing OOC SOS is penalizing P-5 teams. Whether they like it or not, P-5 is where the economic power resides.
If the mid-majors and auto-bid conferences want to retain ANY slots in the Tournament, they may have to give up some at-large bids or they could end up squeezed out entirely.

The world isn't fair and it's not a level playing field.

 

[whirlybird optio]

No way, SDSU gets left out with a loss so yea, root for them.

Also, root against Houston. You could have a Houston/Tulsa semifinal with the winner going for an auto bid in a very winnable game Sunday.

You keep having all these mid majors as locks. I just don't see it all. The #1 bracketologist doesn't see it, andy bottoms. You can't have SDSU as a 12, and then somehow have them pass Pitt as a 9/10, following a bad loss. Won't happen. Of the 4 (Monmouth, st Mary, Wichita, SDSU), one, maaybe 2 get in, tops.

The AAC is a weird group. All the good teams in the top half. That's good for Tulsa and Houston because an easier path to title game, but also bad news because I think both of those teams may need the auto bid because no good wins till the final. Pitt should be rooting for a temple-Tulsa final, with temple winning.

 

[DT_PITT]

If Lunardi gets inside info from the committee, how come he is the 38th-ranked bracketologist - as far as accuracy - over the past few years? According to bracketmatrix.com.

Oh ... no doubt.

I'm not saying that they would hand them their draft bracket or anything.

But here could be a tip that he gets. "Syracuse might get some extra consideration because of Jimmy B's suspension."

Or perhaps something like - there's not much of a good feeling for Pitt's seed right now.

Or maybe, the committee is completely 100% tight lipped and Lunardi knows nothing more than you.

Like I said, just a hunch.

 

[levance2]

But here could be a tip that he gets. "Syracuse might get some extra consideration because of Jimmy B's suspension."

Actually, the chair was very open about that being an absolute fact. He said it makes no difference that he was suspended for cause, but it will be treated the same as any other coach or player missing time. Not that it gets them in, but it is discussed for sure. I don't really understand how that makes any sense. Hopkins is their coach-in-waiting, and everyone on earth seems to think he's too stupid to coach the team for some reason.

 

[UPitt129]

No way, SDSU gets left out with a loss so yea, root for them.

Also, root against Houston. You could have a Houston/Tulsa semifinal with the winner going for an auto bid in a very winnable game Sunday.

I would love to know where you come up with this stuff...you seem to have every mid major making it.