ACC Wrestling: NCAA Slots

[mike412]

This is as tweeted by PJ Tasser:

125: 3 wrestlers. Z should certainly finish in the top 3 at the ACC tourney, but then I thought he was a legitimate NCAA champion possibility before the season started.

133: 3 wrestlers. Mack should make it based on his dual meet performances, but he has historical;ly been a guy who got weaker late in the season, and that has also been the case this year.

141: 5 wrestlers. Since Edgar will be seeded #1, he should be a lock if he wins one bout.

149: 4 wrestlers. Mikey is the wild card. He lost to 3 of the 6 ACC wrestlers in duals, but he is capable of pinning, or getting pinned by any of them. If he is seeded #4, he will wrestle #5 in the opening round with the winner then to wrestle #1. My gut says he doesn't qualify, but he is a 3-time PIAA champ and did win against both PSU and Okie State, so maybe he is a big match wrestler.

157: 2 wrestlers. Obviously, the ACC is weak in this weight class, but Ronnie will have to finish first or second to go.

165: 2 wrestlers. A repeat of 157. I would say these are the two weight classes where we are very unlikely to qualify a wrestler for the NCAAs.

174: 3 wrestlers. Tyler should win this weight class and qualify.

184: 4 wrestlers. Hard to imagine Max not qualifying. Bigger question is whether he can beat Sheptock to win the tourney.

197: 5 wrestlers. I think Bono will be seeded #2 and be in a tough final match, much like Max. He also should qualify easily.

Hwt: 4 wrestlers. PJ will be seeded either #3 or #4, meaning he will face either #6 or #5 in the first round. He needs to win that match and at least one more. If he gets the #3 seed, the road is easier.

I see 4 definite qualifiers, 2 more who should qualify barring meltdowns, 2 more who are coin flips, and 2 who are very unlikely to qualify. Worst case scenario: 4 qualifiers, which would be a terrible result based on our dual season. Best case scenario: 9 qualifiers, with Garbinsky finishing either 1 or 2 at 157. Most likely scenario: 7 qualifiers, a good showing but less than what would usually be expected from a team ranked as high as #6 3 weeks ago.

 

[bwh05]

Good summary, I agree with pretty much everything. I'd say 8 is realistic and 7 is the lowest I can see us going. Anything worse than that, and it means we wrestled really poorly.

125-Zanetta needs to be more aggressive and take more shots.
133-See above!
141-In easily
149-Mikey is obviously struggling at this point. It's a long year and a grind, and he's having a little trouble dealing with it. He definitely has the talent to get there and to win when he does. A tough call.
157-Garbinsky needs to improve his conditioning, which is tough this late in the year. Sheptock may wrestle
165-Morelli has been better lately and could surprise, but it'll be tough with only 2 bids
174-Wilps in easily
184-see above!
197-Bono is on a roll, I wouldn't be surprised if he wins the tourney.
285-PJ should end up 3rd/4th

I should also add that I think we'll be better next year with Rizzo (Heavy), Nick Zanetta (133), and Wiercioch (hopefully) in the lineup.


This post was edited on 2/28 2:09 PM by bwh05

 

[singregardless]

149 having 4 is a great break for Mikey, I feel comfortable about him getting in with that number. He technically went 4-2 in ACC duals, but lost to Sako at the Scuffle (while giving up over 2 minutes of ride time). I will say his Maryland win was a very narrow one, but his VT loss was among the more controversial 2 or 3 from the regular season also.

141 is going to be such a fun class to watch. Carter's healthy - no doubt he takes it. He's that good. But in his absence, I wouldn't be surprised if any of the top 4 seeds took it. I was a fanboy of Edgar before this. If he emerges from that, I might have to change my screen name to Fat Mailman based off his quote here.

I got Tasser & Racciato ekeing in to get Pitt 8 spots. I'm tempted to predict half of the Pitt qualifiers could win individual titles, it's going to take a LOT of hunger for that, though.

 

[mike412]

Why only "hopefully" that Cody will wrestle next year? Since he hasn't wrestled in any open meets I assume his injury is serious. But is it career threatening?

Also, I know he isn't highly ranked nationally, but I have talked to 2 people who are very high on the 125 pounder we have coming in. Myself, I would rather have Marsteller and then figure out what weight class he should wrestle at

By the way, I saw You Tube videos on the kid from NJ Blair Academy who beat the kid from Bright's school last year when he was ranked #1nationally in his weight class and the NJ kid was just a freshman. The kid then lost a close match to Marsteller. He is just destroying people this year. It was basically a video of pins and tech falls. I assume it is from his soph season but it doesn't actually say. He will probably move up a weight class or two before he gets to college but he should be the #1 recruit in the country in two years. His dad is the coach at Blair Academy and I wonder if they will be a package deal.
This post was edited on 3/1 5:53 PM by mike412

 

[bwh05]

Cody not injured, he's had some other issues. He has a chance to be pretty good if he can figure things out in time for next year. Morelli is also getting better, and he won't hand the spot over without a fight.

 

[mike412]

They must be pretty significant issues if he isn't wrestling unattached. We've had more than our share of that, with the brothers from Easton (?) and others, so I really hope he gets things straightened out.

 

[bwh05]

Jeff Eckloff, Dane Johnson, I could go on but it would only depress me. Hopefully it turns out better than those guys.

 

[pinswins]

Cody redshirted this year and he has been to two open tournaments wrestling unattached this year and did very well.

 

[bwh05]

Yes I am aware

 

[singregardless]

Haha. Everyone is well aware of the tournaments he wrestled in from 2013.

There have been other tournaments unattached guys have wrestled in from 2014 (Southern Scuffle, Purple Raider, etc.), and, considering he's arguably our most important recruit since the Peery's, there is some concern that he hasn't wrestled those.

 

[PreLives]

Devin Carter tweeted today that he will be wrestling ACCs. Bright better be on top of his game, because that weight class is crazy competitive - Edgar, Spisak, Henderson, Brown, Speno and now Carter.They could take six of the seven guys in the class to nationals.

That being said, I think Pitt is pretty locked into eight qualifiers. Baring any injuries, Zanetta, Mack, Edgar, Mikey, Wilps, Max Bono and PJ all have strong enough bodies of work that they should all get an At Large bid even if they screw up this weekend. Geno, who is ranked 31 in the newest coaches poll and has a top-20 rpi, could wrestle his way into the tournament. He wont make the ACC finals which would guarantee him a trip, but if he can take 3rd he is putting himself in a pretty good position for a wildcard.

The only two that I have concerns about are Mikey and PJ. If Mikey goes 0-2, he ends the year on an 0-7 slide and that could be enough for him not to go. As far as PJ goes, even if he gets fifth I expect an at large berth. But heavyweight has been all over the place this year and it wouldnt surprise me if a couple of highly ranked guys go down at their conference tournaments, which could hurt PJ if he doesnt place top 4.

Garbinsky will have to make the finals. The ACC has a trio of guys at 157 who are ranked decently high, and I believe they only have two qualifiers. I was not that impressed by any of them and if Garbinsky is healthy I could see him upsetting any or all of them. Or he could go 0-2. You never really know with Ronnie.

Next years team does look equally as bright. 125 will be the obvious weakspot, but we hit number 6 this year with a weak 157 class and Max out half the year. Rizzo, with a full semester and summer under his belt, should do very well next year, as should Nicky Zanetta at 133. As far as Weircioch goes, the talent is there - ive seen him give Wilps fits. He has some other concerns, but the list of guys who dont adjust to college life in the first semester is huge, and many straighten themselves out. Im not ready to put him on the list with Jeff Eckloff, Alex Munoz, Dane Johnson, Godwin Nyama et al just yet.


125 Forys
133 N Zanetta
141 Edgar/Shaffer
149 Racciato/Shaffer - either Bright or Racciato could RS
157 Garbinsky
165 Morelli/Weircioch
174 WIlps
184 Max
197 Bono/Soloman
285 Rizzo/Soloman

That's a pretty solid lineup with a decent amount of depth through the middle and upperweights

This post was edited on 3/5 7:48 PM by PreLives

 

[bwh05]

I agree with everything you said except Mikey and Edgar won't redshirt so you aren't going to see Shaffer in there. I think we have a good chance to be in the top 10 again next season if things stay on track.

 

[PreLives]

I dont think that they will redshirt either, but they theoretically could. Both Thomusseit's werent projected to redshirt when they did but injuries forced them too. Shaffer wasnt 100% on a redshirt this season either, but other factors played a role. Not that he would have started over Edgar, but still.

 

[singregardless]

Ugh. Carter's back? I love Edgar, but they're all wrestling for 2nd if that's the case. I think he's P4P best in the ACC, which is saying something since Sheptock is #1, Gwiazdowski beat a #1, and we have a few studs as well. Fortunately, Edgar's resume is better than Carter's in-conference, so if he gets the #1 seed he earned, that will spare him a round of carnage.

P.J.'s interesting - loss to Myers on a dreadful call, split with Hayes of UVA (Scuffle L, Dual W), and didn't face Walz during the duel because one foot was in a boot. He could slot anywhere from 3-5, I think they'll give him the benefit of the doubt, and slot him 4 - behind Walz, but ahead of Hayes (since his victory over Hayes is more current).

2 days before the drive to Blacksburg and I still don't know what our seniors are going to do. They determine whether we bring a trophy a home or not.