This is a long post. Only the patient should proceed,
It’s a tough time for Pitt fans. The tourney is nearing its end and our team last sniffed it a very distant 7 seasons ago. I want to walk through the last 6 years and point out a positive trend that I’m sure most will scoff at. By the numbers it’s truly progress so hopefully you can have an open mind. But first some history.
Just for context my dad brought me to my first Pitt BB game at the Civic Arena for the Steel Bowl tournament. How many of you remember the Steel Bowl? I assume it was an annual event for a while. On opening night Pitt played Southern Illinois and Duquesne played Hofstra. So I’ve seen a lot of Pitt BB. I’ve seen some of the best teams in school history and some of the worst teams. There will be great teams again some day despite us living through these rough times right now.
However do not lose sight that Pitt, from 1941 until Ben Howland’s 3rd season, had made the NCAA tourney just 13 times in those 60 years**.
At that point in the early 2000s Pitt had a good run of coaches with Howland and his protege Dixon. A city, that mostly was disinterested in Pitt BB, began to take notice of the hard nosed BB taking place on the hill. The timing of the Peterson Events Center could not have been better (thank you Gertrude and John).
Howland took Pitt to two Sweet 16s and then turned over the reigns to Dixon who continued the NCAA trend for 8 straight seasons. Some early tourney exits didn’t sit well with the fan base. Dixon’s 9th season ended in a CBI championship that was largely considered a disappointment. In Dixon’s final 4 seasons they made the NCAAs 3 more times. Pitt had been to the NCAA tourney 13 times in 15 seasons. Despite this amazing run, many people wanted Jamie out.
Remember from 1941.to 2001 Pitt had also been to just 13 NCAA tourneys (in fairness less teams made the tourney but it is isn’t like Pitt would have had 20 more bids during those years).
Pitt became so good that everyone believed winning was easy and upgrades to coaches could just be done with the wave of a hand and great candidates would crawl out of the wood work.
It has been said in business that great people don’t leave organizations, they leave bad leadership. That is what Jamie did. Barnes was bad leadership. A lot has been made of Barnes replacement strategy and the firm he employed (that’s a little fishy), but in reality how many great candidates declined to be interviewed when privately contacted by the search firm because they were leery of Barnes. Who knows, but probably a lot.
So here’s where the new challenge starts. Pitt makes a huge error getting rid of Dixon. He goes to TCU and in his first year takes them from 12 wins to 24 and wins the NIT. His record in 6 years is 117-84 with 2 NCAA bids and a second NIT run falling in the semi finals at Madison Square Garden. In the previous 6 seasons before Dixon the HornedFrogs were 79-112.
Pitt hires Stallings and the team that Jamie led to the NCAA’s with a 21-12 record that returned 4 players that started 25 or more games finishes with a record of 16-17 and 4-14 in conference. Stallings next year is even worse with a record of 8-24 and 0-18 in conference. This is the only year in school history (when they were part of a conference) that they went winless.
Luckily Heather Lyke figures out a way to open up the head coaching job and close a terrible chapter that will set back the program back at least 6 years and probably 10 years.
Now the positive side can start, but it’s been very, very, slow progress. It does not feel like progress and some of you won’t want to count this as a victory and I won’t blame you for that. But the numbers do not lie. It is very slow but steady progress.
Stallings that year in conference had an 0-18 record, Totally rock bottom. 15th in a 15 team conference.
The Capel years in Conference
=========================
2018-19. 14th (tie) 3-15 record
2019-20. 13th (tie) 6-14 record
2020-21. 12th 6-10 record
2021-22. 11th (tie) 6-14 record.
Obviously moving up one spot per year is not ideal when Pitt has such a steep climb to get back to relevance. However on the bright side Pitt probably needs to get back to 7th place in the ACC to start to garner consideration for an at large bid.
The big question is will Capel be able to make strides to pick up this pace?
Will Pitt ultimately have to go with a new candidate, which will bring a similar risk/reward that Capel brought. We know he has one more year but maybe more
No guarantees that a fresh candidate will turn this around. Capel was the best candidate that we could hope for after the cupboard of candidates seemed pretty bare last time.
The last 5 times the Pitt job has been open a home-run candidate was not surfaced. I think Capel might get 2 more years. I think that would be guaranteed if he can jump Pitt to 8th or 9th place next season. Those teams have been given bids in past years.
You cannot forget that Pitt’s history is 13 NCAA tourneys in 60 years and also 13 tourneys in 15 years.
Which of those 2 realities will be in Pitt’s future?
I said it when Dixon was encouraged to move on. He will likely be the best Pitt MBB coach in history. but if I’m wrong that would be tremendous.
I’m crossing my fingers that somehow (and I don’t know how) Capel can right the ship and jump the team up to the ACC 7th spot by this time next year. It looks like it may require a miracle but they have taken baby steps every year in that direction so let’s hope.
**The source I used said Pitt’s first appearance in the NCAA was 1941 and first appearance in NIT was 1975.
It’s a tough time for Pitt fans. The tourney is nearing its end and our team last sniffed it a very distant 7 seasons ago. I want to walk through the last 6 years and point out a positive trend that I’m sure most will scoff at. By the numbers it’s truly progress so hopefully you can have an open mind. But first some history.
Just for context my dad brought me to my first Pitt BB game at the Civic Arena for the Steel Bowl tournament. How many of you remember the Steel Bowl? I assume it was an annual event for a while. On opening night Pitt played Southern Illinois and Duquesne played Hofstra. So I’ve seen a lot of Pitt BB. I’ve seen some of the best teams in school history and some of the worst teams. There will be great teams again some day despite us living through these rough times right now.
However do not lose sight that Pitt, from 1941 until Ben Howland’s 3rd season, had made the NCAA tourney just 13 times in those 60 years**.
At that point in the early 2000s Pitt had a good run of coaches with Howland and his protege Dixon. A city, that mostly was disinterested in Pitt BB, began to take notice of the hard nosed BB taking place on the hill. The timing of the Peterson Events Center could not have been better (thank you Gertrude and John).
Howland took Pitt to two Sweet 16s and then turned over the reigns to Dixon who continued the NCAA trend for 8 straight seasons. Some early tourney exits didn’t sit well with the fan base. Dixon’s 9th season ended in a CBI championship that was largely considered a disappointment. In Dixon’s final 4 seasons they made the NCAAs 3 more times. Pitt had been to the NCAA tourney 13 times in 15 seasons. Despite this amazing run, many people wanted Jamie out.
Remember from 1941.to 2001 Pitt had also been to just 13 NCAA tourneys (in fairness less teams made the tourney but it is isn’t like Pitt would have had 20 more bids during those years).
Pitt became so good that everyone believed winning was easy and upgrades to coaches could just be done with the wave of a hand and great candidates would crawl out of the wood work.
It has been said in business that great people don’t leave organizations, they leave bad leadership. That is what Jamie did. Barnes was bad leadership. A lot has been made of Barnes replacement strategy and the firm he employed (that’s a little fishy), but in reality how many great candidates declined to be interviewed when privately contacted by the search firm because they were leery of Barnes. Who knows, but probably a lot.
So here’s where the new challenge starts. Pitt makes a huge error getting rid of Dixon. He goes to TCU and in his first year takes them from 12 wins to 24 and wins the NIT. His record in 6 years is 117-84 with 2 NCAA bids and a second NIT run falling in the semi finals at Madison Square Garden. In the previous 6 seasons before Dixon the HornedFrogs were 79-112.
Pitt hires Stallings and the team that Jamie led to the NCAA’s with a 21-12 record that returned 4 players that started 25 or more games finishes with a record of 16-17 and 4-14 in conference. Stallings next year is even worse with a record of 8-24 and 0-18 in conference. This is the only year in school history (when they were part of a conference) that they went winless.
Luckily Heather Lyke figures out a way to open up the head coaching job and close a terrible chapter that will set back the program back at least 6 years and probably 10 years.
Now the positive side can start, but it’s been very, very, slow progress. It does not feel like progress and some of you won’t want to count this as a victory and I won’t blame you for that. But the numbers do not lie. It is very slow but steady progress.
Stallings that year in conference had an 0-18 record, Totally rock bottom. 15th in a 15 team conference.
The Capel years in Conference
=========================
2018-19. 14th (tie) 3-15 record
2019-20. 13th (tie) 6-14 record
2020-21. 12th 6-10 record
2021-22. 11th (tie) 6-14 record.
Obviously moving up one spot per year is not ideal when Pitt has such a steep climb to get back to relevance. However on the bright side Pitt probably needs to get back to 7th place in the ACC to start to garner consideration for an at large bid.
The big question is will Capel be able to make strides to pick up this pace?
Will Pitt ultimately have to go with a new candidate, which will bring a similar risk/reward that Capel brought. We know he has one more year but maybe more
No guarantees that a fresh candidate will turn this around. Capel was the best candidate that we could hope for after the cupboard of candidates seemed pretty bare last time.
The last 5 times the Pitt job has been open a home-run candidate was not surfaced. I think Capel might get 2 more years. I think that would be guaranteed if he can jump Pitt to 8th or 9th place next season. Those teams have been given bids in past years.
You cannot forget that Pitt’s history is 13 NCAA tourneys in 60 years and also 13 tourneys in 15 years.
Which of those 2 realities will be in Pitt’s future?
I said it when Dixon was encouraged to move on. He will likely be the best Pitt MBB coach in history. but if I’m wrong that would be tremendous.
I’m crossing my fingers that somehow (and I don’t know how) Capel can right the ship and jump the team up to the ACC 7th spot by this time next year. It looks like it may require a miracle but they have taken baby steps every year in that direction so let’s hope.
**The source I used said Pitt’s first appearance in the NCAA was 1941 and first appearance in NIT was 1975.
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