ACC
Locks
North Carolina Tar Heels, Duke Blue DevilsShould be in
Clemson Tigers
When Bubble Watch last discussed Clemson, we said lock status for Brad Brownell's team was "imminent." Allow us to more be specific. If the Tigers win at home in their next game against NC State, they're a lock. Clemson has now won three in a row, including road victories at North Carolina and Syracuse. Though the Tigers have made fewer than 33% of their 3s on the ACC season, over the last three wins that figure has been 40%. (updated Feb. 14)
Virginia Cavaliers
When last we discussed Virginia here, Bubble Watch noted the Cavaliers were playing good D and catching the good breaks often earned by good teams. Both halves of that trend went missing when UVA lost at home to Pitt by 11. Tony Bennett's team allowed the Panthers to score 1.25 points per possession, the highest total any opponent has recorded since January 2022. Pitt connected on 14 3s and pulled down 11 offensive boards. Virginia's won enough games to stay here in "Should be in," but this defeat undermines what was previously projected as a No. 8 seed. (updated Feb. 13)
Work to do
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
The thing about losing at Duke by eight as the Demon Deacons just did is that you stay more or less right where you are on the bubble. Sure, your metrics aren't going to drop if you lose a relatively close road game to a Bubble Watch lock. But teams competing with you for a bid are playing this type of game as well, and some of your rivals are winning these tough road games. Wake Forest entered the contest at Cameron Indoor projected as being right on the cut line. Another opportunity to move up now awaits in a visit to Virginia. (updated Feb.12)
Pittsburgh Panthers
When the Panthers won at Virginia by 11, the numbers on their team sheet spiked to the point where this is clearly a bubble profile. Not an at-large profile, necessarily, at least not yet. But at 16-8, Pitt claims road wins against the Cavaliers and Duke. The remaining schedule consists of road games at Wake Forest and Clemson plus five outings against opponents not currently projected to make the field of 68. In conference play the Panthers devote a higher share of their attempts to tries from beyond the arc than any ACC team. Against UVA, those tries were on target 14 times. (updated Feb. 14)