May 3, 2013
Welcome back to another edition of In the Pitt, Panther-Lair.com's rundown of everything going on in Pitt recruiting. Today we'll break down the class targets, recap recent updates, and look at what this class could be.
The numbers
Every class starts with a number, so as we're looking at Pitt's class of 2013, that's where we'll start. As I do in every In the Pitt write-up, I'll begin by pointing you to several resources:
The 2014 offer sheethttp://pittsburgh.rivals.com/offerlist.asp?SID=996&Sport=1&Year=2014&School=62
The 2013 Scholarship Boardhttp://pittsburgh.rivals.com/content.asp?SID=996&CID=1455113
The first link tells you who Pitt is after; the second tells you how many of those kids Pitt could take. So what do we learn from those two resources?
The offer sheet lists 79 names; there are probably a few more offers that we don't have on record yet, but I'm willing to estimate that Pitt's actual offer sheet is under 100. I don't have offer totals for every school in the country, but from my perspective, that's a relatively small number. The smaller number of offers is largely tied to the expected scholarship availability, which is where the Scholarship Board comes in.
The Scholarship Board currently shows 86 players, but the number is actually 85 since Deaysean Rippy has requested his release. I haven't taken him off the list because his transfer - most likely to Cal. (PA), IUP or another PSAC school - isn't finalized, but he is more or less gone. That puts the roster at 85, and I actually wouldn't be surprised to see more attrition before the summer is over.
Looking ahead, then, there are currently 16 scholarship seniors on the roster, which means a starting point of 16 spots for the class of 2014. Additional spots could come open through additional attrition this year, which seems inevitable (even likely) at this point.
For the purposes of breaking down the class, let's assume an even 20 as the target number.
Quarterback
The recruitment of a quarterback for 2014 has been discussed at length on the message board, so I'll try to recap what the situation seems to be:
Palo Alto five-star Keller Chryst is the No. 1 target, and from everything we can gather, he's got serious interest in Pitt. As I've looked into the situation with Chryst and Pitt - obviously the connection is with his uncle, Paul - it seems pretty clear that if Pitt wasn't being seriously considered, that information would have been made known to Pitt and the coaches would be moving on with their quarterback recruiting.
That hasn't happened, Pitt's pursuit of Keller Chryst has continued, and no other quarterbacks have received offers from Pitt, which tells me that Keller is still seriously considering Pitt. Conventional wisdom has USC and Stanford as his top two, but some sources - not connected to Pitt, so the information isn't biased - have indicated that Pitt is in that top group, if not above USC. Either way, the Panthers are in the conversation at this point, and that's where things have to start (I won't say it's a "win" for Pitt to be seriously considered, because being in the top group doesn't matter if he goes somewhere else, but it is a start).
Keller Chryst is expected to make his decision at the start of the summer, which would be ideal for Pitt. If he picks Pitt, obviously that's a huge score for the Panthers. If he picks another school, then the coaches can move on and evaluate quarterback prospects with the appropriate perspective.
That means looking at quarterback recruits on film and during the summer prospect camps as primary targets rather than secondary. While Pitt has pursued Chryst, the coaches haven't ignored all other quarterbacks; on the contrary, quarterbacks coach Brooks Bollinger has been on the road watching quarterbacks in person since the evaluation period began a few weeks ago. That's not just to keep Bollinger busy; it's because the Pitt coaches are doing their full diligence on evaluating the position.
I don't think the coaches are just looking for contingency plans in case Keller Chryst goes elsewhere, though; I think that there is some possibility they could take two quarterbacks in this class. Tom Savage graduates after this season and Trey Anderson will be a senior in 2014 but will likely function as a backup next year; that leaves Chad Voytik and Tra'Von Chapman, although there are questions about Chapman's future after his legal incident this week (no decision has been made on Chapman's fate, but you have to wonder).
Even if Chapman stays with the team, that would leave Pitt with a small quarterback corps in 2014 (Voytik, Chapman, Anderson) and even smaller in 2015 (Voytik and Chapman). So it might not be a bad idea to take two quarterbacks in this class, although one really good one would suffice. Two in 2014 and one in 2015 would give Pitt five quarterbacks on the 2015 roster with one redshirting. Because you never know how a player at that position will transition to college and you can never predict injuries and other unforeseen events, it's always better to stockpile.
Pitt could get by with one quarterback in this class, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see them take two.
After Keller Chryst, there are a few guys who are on Pitt's radar at this point, like Chandler Kincade, among others.
Ford impressed Bollinger during the prospect camp last summer, and after a very productive season on a largely weapon-less team, he earned an invite to the Elite 11 two weeks ago. Duckworth has also impressed Bollinger, and he'll probably need to come back to the prospect camp this summer since he missed a lot of time last season due to injury.
Kincade would also do well to come to Pitt's camp. We all know his story: a lifelong Pitt fan, Kincade committed to the Panthers as a sophomore when Todd Graham was the head coach. He maintained his commitment through the coaching change, but the new coaching staff wanted to do its own evaluation of him. They weren't going to run off his commitment, but given the significance of that position, they wanted to put Kincade through the same evaluation procedure as any other recruit. This led to a sometimes-awkward relationship, at least from my view, but in mid-April Kincade decided to re-open his recruitment altogether.
Kincade hasn't ruled out Pitt and Pitt hasn't given up on Kincade; instead he will play out the recruiting process (until late summer, at the latest, since he plans to enroll early) and consider all options, and the Pitt coaches will continue evaluating him and other quarterbacks. As such, Bollinger visited Blackhawk this week and watched Kincade throw, and Pitt hopes he will come to the camp in June and work out again for Bollinger.
The prospect camps do hold a fair amount of value for the coaches as they evaluate recruits, since they can work out the players directly. During the spring evaluation period, coaches can watch work outs and maybe sneak in a conversation, but it's not hands-on like the prospect camps. During the prospect camps, coaches can get a real feel for how the recruits take to coaching, how they handle direct interaction and guidance from the coaches. For Paul Chryst and Brooks Bollinger, the prospect camps are of the utmost importance when it comes to the quarterback position; they want to be able to work out the quarterbacks in a hands-on fashion. That's where a lot of Bollinger's interest in Andrew Ford comes from, and that's why they want to see Kincade in June.
Of course, Keller Chryst doesn't need to come to Pitt's camp, since his uncle has a pretty good idea of what kind of player he is. At the same time, Paul Chryst did go to Palo Alto last fall to watch one of Keller's games, and Bollinger and Bobby Engram flew out at the start of the evaluation period to watch him work out.
As to who Pitt ends up with in this class, it's too early to tell. They could land Keller Chryst; I don't think that's out of the realm of possibility, although it will be a battle. They could evaluate Kincade and come back around to put a full-court press on him, or they could identify someone like Ford as a top target after the evaluation period and prospect camps and pull the trigger on him.
The one thing I'm relatively confident about is that there won't be any real movement until Keller Chryst makes a decision or gives Pitt an indication that he is leaning elsewhere.
Running back
There's not much mystery about Pitt's running back targets in the class of 2014: Washington's Shai McKenzie is No. 1 on the board and is one of the top overall targets in the class. The Panthers will be in it until the end with McKenzie and will get an official visit in the fall/winter; beyond that, it's tough to say where he will end up. Chances are it will be Pitt or an SEC school, and while there's some inclination toward saying he'll stay home, I think it's too early to call.
Pitt is also in good shape with Buffalo (NY) Canisius' among his favorites after his visit to Pittsburgh.
I suspect James will end up in the Big Ten, possibly at Michigan State, but I think Pitt has a good shot with Ollison. I hate to make a prediction with a player of McKenzie's caliber, but it's not a stretch to imagine Pitt landing McKenzie and Ollison. With Rushel Shell gone, Isaac Bennett entering his junior season, and only a couple other running backs on the roster, I think the coaches will look to get two in this class.
Wide receiver
Pitt added to the receiving corps in a big way with the class of 2013, signing four players currently slotted to play the position. But it's a unique group: Tyler Boyd didn't really play receiver in high school, Reggie Green was a quarterback, and Jester Weah only played football for a couple years. That leaves Zach Challingsworth as the most experienced and accomplished receiver in the class.
As such Pitt needs to add more to the roster in the class of 2014, but the fact that the Panthers signed four in last year's class makes it a bit tough. I think Pitt almost has to take a couple receivers this year and then try to load up again in 2015 if they feel like some of the 2013 kids aren't working out or they have to move them to different positions.
So I'm looking for Pitt to take two receivers in this class. North Allegheny's Elijah Zeise is a likely candidate, but while Pitt is recruiting him as a receiver and he worked out at receiver during the Rivals/Under Armour camp on Sunday, I think the coaches would probably take him and two more receivers, since Zeise has the versatility to play a couple positions (receiver, safety, maybe even bulking up to tight end or linebacker).
For the two Pitt could land, there are several options. Pitt was an early offer for Saeed Blacknall, who did say that Pitt was in his top five, although that's a moot point since he's probably headed to LSU.
Jamal Custis, who at 6'6" is easily the tallest receiver on Pitt's offer sheet.
Williams and Blacknall are probably out of reach - or at least appear to be - but the rest are still in play. I wouldn't be surprised to see Pitt land any two of Baker, Winfree, Jennings, and Custis. My gut says Baker, Jennings, and Custis are more likely than Winfree, and from that group of three I would think that Pitt has the best shot of landing Jennings and Custis. I won't count out Winfree and Baker, though.
Tight end
I wasn't sure how Pitt would approach tight end in this class. They had a decent crop of young tight ends on the roster, with Drew Carswell, Manasseh Garner, JP Holtz, and three freshmen (two of which will probably redshirt). With that group, I suspected that Pitt would sign one tight end in the class of 2014.
Now Carswell is gone, but I'm not sure that changes the equation much. No one graduates this year, and Carswell would have been done after next year anyway, so the class of 2014 recruits would be looked at to replace him as it was (they would be second-year players after he left).
I think that's why we haven't seen the coaches cast such a wide net as they did last year (we listed eight tight ends with offers in the class of 2013, whereas this year only lists five, and two are already committed). Looking at the three available tight ends, I don't think Pitt will get Ryan Izzo is a new offer, so I don't have a feel for his recruitment yet. I think Pitt will get a tight end in the class, but it may not be one who is currently on the offer sheet.
Offensive line
Pitt reloaded the offensive line with five recruits in the class of 2013, and I don't see the coaches slowing down with this class either. Pitt had 10 scholarship linemen in spring camp, and while they'll add the five freshmen this summer, they will lose three seniors after this season (and potentially more due to attrition).
Plus, the coaches have spent the better part of the last two years trying to rebuild the offensive line, and that's a job that can't be finished in one year, so I'm looking for the coaches to load up on linemen again. My current expectation is that Pitt will sign another four offensive linemen in this class.
The haul got started when Traverse City (Mich.) West guard his physicality.
So that's one linemen on board. Bethel Park's Alex Bookser are the top two local linemen and two of the top recruits on Pitt's board overall; I think Pitt can and probably will land Grimm, but I don't have as much confidence about Bookser.
Pitt has been recruiting Brady Taylor.
I could see Pitt holding onto Hayes, getting Grimm and LaRubbio, and then finding one more from the group or from the prospect camps to get to four linemen total in the class.
Defensive line
Pitt loaded up on defensive linemen in the class of 2013, too, with five total (three ends and two tackles). But I think they'd still like some more, maybe even as many as four in this class.
Just to re-state the reality that I think most understand: Pitt is rebuilding. And the most effective way to rebuild a football team is from the ground up, or rather, from the inside out. If you think back to Dave Wannstedt's rebuilding project, that was the basis of it, and when the team was really successful - 2009 - it had its best combination of talent on the offensive and defensive lines.
That's what Paul Chryst's staff is trying to do. They started with 10 linemen in the class of 2013, and I think they sign only a few less this year. I'm looking for Pitt to take four defensive linemen in the class of 2014, especially if the target number for the whole class is 20.
The two line recruits I would say are more likely to pick Pitt local: Jaleel Fields from Aliquippa. Boxen was looking like a defensive end at a svelte 250 on Sunday and took reps there during the camp, but he will put the weight back on and be a defensive tackle in college. Fields is short - he measured in at 6'0" - but he has a good burst off the ball and can be disruptive.
Pitt has been Boxen's only offer for a while, and I think he wants to see some more offers come in before he makes a decision. Regardless, I think it will be Pitt. And Fields was hoping Pitt would offer - which finally happened on Monday - but he'll hold off for a little while, as Aliquippa kids often do. In the end, though, I think Pitt will land both.
For the rest of the spots on the defensive line, Somerset (NJ) Franklin's pretty excited about it; as it stands, Pitt is his only offer, so that puts the Panthers in a good position, obviously.
I think we'll see Pitt get Boxen and Fields, possibly Outsey, and then one other defensive end. I don't think Pitt has a great shot with the other defensive ends on the offer sheet, like Rick Leonard. Henderson has some interest in visiting, but I don't see him picking Pitt.
The fourth defensive line spot - if they take four - will probably go to an offer that comes from spring evaluation or the prospect camps.
Linebacker
Pitt added two linebackers in the class of 2013 and four in the class of 2012, but at least one is gone from the class of 2012 - Deaysean Rippy - so that takes the numbers down a bit. There is potential among the lower classes, but I think the coaches will look to add a couple more to the group with the 2014 recruits.
And if they're going to take two, I think there are two names that stick out: Zaire Franklin. And I think Pitt is in strong position with both.
Winovich keeps adding offers and has said his top three schools are Pitt, Ohio State, and Michigan. Each one has its appeal: Ohio State is his "dream" school, he is close with Michigan commit Michael Ferns, and Pitt is Pitt - the hometown school he grew up watching.
Winovich won't give up anything publicly, but I still think he's leaning to Pitt. I think he is enjoying the process and is soaking up the attention from the schools, and he'll take at least one more visit to Ohio State and one to Michigan, but at the end of the day (probably in June), I think he'll pick Pitt. If so, Pitt will be getting a very good outside linebacker.
Franklin was in Pittsburgh in mid-April, and he likes the Panthers quite a bit. I wouldn't be surprised to see him pull the trigger by early summer either.
If Pitt could land Winovich and Franklin, I think the coaches would be very pleased with the haul and call it a day. They're in pursuit of other targets like Jaboree Williams, but I think Winovich and Franklin would make the coaches very pleased.
Defensive back
I think the coaches still want to bolster the depth of the defensive backfield, so I expect them to take probably three secondary recruits in this class.
At the top of the list is Dravon Henry. In my opinion, he might be the No. 1 player in the state, with enough tools to play cornerback, safety, or even running back in college. Seeing him in person on Sunday was really impressive, because his size is better than you would expect. Henry is a priority recruit for Pitt, and I think if you told the coaches they could have only one recruit from the WPIAL this year, it would most likely be Henry (he would be my pick, anyway).
So can Pitt get him? Well, he's an Aliquippa kid, so that's a good start. Pitt is in his top four with West Virginia, Penn State, and Ohio State. He supposedly has a few leans in there, but where he's leaning depends on who you talk to. Some will tell you Pitt and Penn State are on top (I tend to believe that); some say it's Penn State and West Virginia; some even say WVU alone holds the top spot on his list. Henry is such a key recruit for Pitt in this class that he needs the full-court press of attention as often as the Pitt coaches can give it to him.
It's tough to put percentages on Henry's destination, but it's even tougher to count out Pitt with an Aliquippa recruit. So I'll tentatively say I think Pitt gets him. And I'll definitively say that Pitt needs him.
After that, there are a bunch of options for the other two spots I see Pitt using on the defensive backfield. Malik Hooker could project on either side of the ball, but I think his growing recruitment and the recent offer from Penn State have him headed away from home.
I do think Pitt's got a good shot with Perkiomen Valley's Marcus Allen, although Allen's recruitment has really taken off.
I think Pitt can get Henry and Stewart and find a third defensive back for the class, either from the current list of offers or an athlete who emerges over the next ten months.
The Class
So let's recap it all. What could Pitt's class realistically look like?
Here's a fairly reasonable breakdown of what the class could look like.
Quarterback - Keller Chryst
Running back - Shai McKenzie, Qadree Ollison
Wide receiver - Dorian Baker, Adonis Jennings, Elijah Zeise
Tight end - TBA
Offensive line - Connor Hayes, Mike Grimm, Jarrett LaRubbio, TBA
Defensive line - Brock Boxen, Jaleel Fields, Jameer Outsey, TBA
Linebacker - Chase Winovich, Zaire Franklin
Defensive back - Dravon Henry, Rasaan Stewart, TBA
That's 20 recruits, all reasonably within reach for Pitt. And if Pitt landed those 20 recruits (well, 16 plus four TBA's), I don't think anyone would complain about that group.
Even if you removed Keller Chryst and replaced him with Andrew Ford and removed Qadree Ollison and replaced him with a running back who got an offer in the fall, it's still a very strong class, regardless of what happens with the TBA's.
Now, understand that I'm not predicting anything. That's just a list of recruits that Pitt has a reasonable chance of signing. I don't feel like I'm stretching the imagination too much to put that list together.
Looking ahead
May 10 is a date we're keeping an eye on. Pitt might try to get some of the top targets on campus that day. I haven't heard back from everyone, but Mike Grimm said he's planning on visiting that day.
A few others - Dravon Henry, Shai McKenzie, and Elijah Zeise, for instance - weren't sure yet if they could make it.
Welcome back to another edition of In the Pitt, Panther-Lair.com's rundown of everything going on in Pitt recruiting. Today we'll break down the class targets, recap recent updates, and look at what this class could be.
The numbers
Every class starts with a number, so as we're looking at Pitt's class of 2013, that's where we'll start. As I do in every In the Pitt write-up, I'll begin by pointing you to several resources:
The 2014 offer sheethttp://pittsburgh.rivals.com/offerlist.asp?SID=996&Sport=1&Year=2014&School=62
The 2013 Scholarship Boardhttp://pittsburgh.rivals.com/content.asp?SID=996&CID=1455113
The first link tells you who Pitt is after; the second tells you how many of those kids Pitt could take. So what do we learn from those two resources?
The offer sheet lists 79 names; there are probably a few more offers that we don't have on record yet, but I'm willing to estimate that Pitt's actual offer sheet is under 100. I don't have offer totals for every school in the country, but from my perspective, that's a relatively small number. The smaller number of offers is largely tied to the expected scholarship availability, which is where the Scholarship Board comes in.
The Scholarship Board currently shows 86 players, but the number is actually 85 since Deaysean Rippy has requested his release. I haven't taken him off the list because his transfer - most likely to Cal. (PA), IUP or another PSAC school - isn't finalized, but he is more or less gone. That puts the roster at 85, and I actually wouldn't be surprised to see more attrition before the summer is over.
Looking ahead, then, there are currently 16 scholarship seniors on the roster, which means a starting point of 16 spots for the class of 2014. Additional spots could come open through additional attrition this year, which seems inevitable (even likely) at this point.
For the purposes of breaking down the class, let's assume an even 20 as the target number.
Quarterback
The recruitment of a quarterback for 2014 has been discussed at length on the message board, so I'll try to recap what the situation seems to be:
Palo Alto five-star Keller Chryst is the No. 1 target, and from everything we can gather, he's got serious interest in Pitt. As I've looked into the situation with Chryst and Pitt - obviously the connection is with his uncle, Paul - it seems pretty clear that if Pitt wasn't being seriously considered, that information would have been made known to Pitt and the coaches would be moving on with their quarterback recruiting.
That hasn't happened, Pitt's pursuit of Keller Chryst has continued, and no other quarterbacks have received offers from Pitt, which tells me that Keller is still seriously considering Pitt. Conventional wisdom has USC and Stanford as his top two, but some sources - not connected to Pitt, so the information isn't biased - have indicated that Pitt is in that top group, if not above USC. Either way, the Panthers are in the conversation at this point, and that's where things have to start (I won't say it's a "win" for Pitt to be seriously considered, because being in the top group doesn't matter if he goes somewhere else, but it is a start).
Keller Chryst is expected to make his decision at the start of the summer, which would be ideal for Pitt. If he picks Pitt, obviously that's a huge score for the Panthers. If he picks another school, then the coaches can move on and evaluate quarterback prospects with the appropriate perspective.
That means looking at quarterback recruits on film and during the summer prospect camps as primary targets rather than secondary. While Pitt has pursued Chryst, the coaches haven't ignored all other quarterbacks; on the contrary, quarterbacks coach Brooks Bollinger has been on the road watching quarterbacks in person since the evaluation period began a few weeks ago. That's not just to keep Bollinger busy; it's because the Pitt coaches are doing their full diligence on evaluating the position.
I don't think the coaches are just looking for contingency plans in case Keller Chryst goes elsewhere, though; I think that there is some possibility they could take two quarterbacks in this class. Tom Savage graduates after this season and Trey Anderson will be a senior in 2014 but will likely function as a backup next year; that leaves Chad Voytik and Tra'Von Chapman, although there are questions about Chapman's future after his legal incident this week (no decision has been made on Chapman's fate, but you have to wonder).
Even if Chapman stays with the team, that would leave Pitt with a small quarterback corps in 2014 (Voytik, Chapman, Anderson) and even smaller in 2015 (Voytik and Chapman). So it might not be a bad idea to take two quarterbacks in this class, although one really good one would suffice. Two in 2014 and one in 2015 would give Pitt five quarterbacks on the 2015 roster with one redshirting. Because you never know how a player at that position will transition to college and you can never predict injuries and other unforeseen events, it's always better to stockpile.
Pitt could get by with one quarterback in this class, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see them take two.
After Keller Chryst, there are a few guys who are on Pitt's radar at this point, like Chandler Kincade, among others.
Ford impressed Bollinger during the prospect camp last summer, and after a very productive season on a largely weapon-less team, he earned an invite to the Elite 11 two weeks ago. Duckworth has also impressed Bollinger, and he'll probably need to come back to the prospect camp this summer since he missed a lot of time last season due to injury.
Kincade would also do well to come to Pitt's camp. We all know his story: a lifelong Pitt fan, Kincade committed to the Panthers as a sophomore when Todd Graham was the head coach. He maintained his commitment through the coaching change, but the new coaching staff wanted to do its own evaluation of him. They weren't going to run off his commitment, but given the significance of that position, they wanted to put Kincade through the same evaluation procedure as any other recruit. This led to a sometimes-awkward relationship, at least from my view, but in mid-April Kincade decided to re-open his recruitment altogether.
Kincade hasn't ruled out Pitt and Pitt hasn't given up on Kincade; instead he will play out the recruiting process (until late summer, at the latest, since he plans to enroll early) and consider all options, and the Pitt coaches will continue evaluating him and other quarterbacks. As such, Bollinger visited Blackhawk this week and watched Kincade throw, and Pitt hopes he will come to the camp in June and work out again for Bollinger.
The prospect camps do hold a fair amount of value for the coaches as they evaluate recruits, since they can work out the players directly. During the spring evaluation period, coaches can watch work outs and maybe sneak in a conversation, but it's not hands-on like the prospect camps. During the prospect camps, coaches can get a real feel for how the recruits take to coaching, how they handle direct interaction and guidance from the coaches. For Paul Chryst and Brooks Bollinger, the prospect camps are of the utmost importance when it comes to the quarterback position; they want to be able to work out the quarterbacks in a hands-on fashion. That's where a lot of Bollinger's interest in Andrew Ford comes from, and that's why they want to see Kincade in June.
Of course, Keller Chryst doesn't need to come to Pitt's camp, since his uncle has a pretty good idea of what kind of player he is. At the same time, Paul Chryst did go to Palo Alto last fall to watch one of Keller's games, and Bollinger and Bobby Engram flew out at the start of the evaluation period to watch him work out.
As to who Pitt ends up with in this class, it's too early to tell. They could land Keller Chryst; I don't think that's out of the realm of possibility, although it will be a battle. They could evaluate Kincade and come back around to put a full-court press on him, or they could identify someone like Ford as a top target after the evaluation period and prospect camps and pull the trigger on him.
The one thing I'm relatively confident about is that there won't be any real movement until Keller Chryst makes a decision or gives Pitt an indication that he is leaning elsewhere.
Running back
There's not much mystery about Pitt's running back targets in the class of 2014: Washington's Shai McKenzie is No. 1 on the board and is one of the top overall targets in the class. The Panthers will be in it until the end with McKenzie and will get an official visit in the fall/winter; beyond that, it's tough to say where he will end up. Chances are it will be Pitt or an SEC school, and while there's some inclination toward saying he'll stay home, I think it's too early to call.
Pitt is also in good shape with Buffalo (NY) Canisius' among his favorites after his visit to Pittsburgh.
I suspect James will end up in the Big Ten, possibly at Michigan State, but I think Pitt has a good shot with Ollison. I hate to make a prediction with a player of McKenzie's caliber, but it's not a stretch to imagine Pitt landing McKenzie and Ollison. With Rushel Shell gone, Isaac Bennett entering his junior season, and only a couple other running backs on the roster, I think the coaches will look to get two in this class.
Wide receiver
Pitt added to the receiving corps in a big way with the class of 2013, signing four players currently slotted to play the position. But it's a unique group: Tyler Boyd didn't really play receiver in high school, Reggie Green was a quarterback, and Jester Weah only played football for a couple years. That leaves Zach Challingsworth as the most experienced and accomplished receiver in the class.
As such Pitt needs to add more to the roster in the class of 2014, but the fact that the Panthers signed four in last year's class makes it a bit tough. I think Pitt almost has to take a couple receivers this year and then try to load up again in 2015 if they feel like some of the 2013 kids aren't working out or they have to move them to different positions.
So I'm looking for Pitt to take two receivers in this class. North Allegheny's Elijah Zeise is a likely candidate, but while Pitt is recruiting him as a receiver and he worked out at receiver during the Rivals/Under Armour camp on Sunday, I think the coaches would probably take him and two more receivers, since Zeise has the versatility to play a couple positions (receiver, safety, maybe even bulking up to tight end or linebacker).
For the two Pitt could land, there are several options. Pitt was an early offer for Saeed Blacknall, who did say that Pitt was in his top five, although that's a moot point since he's probably headed to LSU.
Jamal Custis, who at 6'6" is easily the tallest receiver on Pitt's offer sheet.
Williams and Blacknall are probably out of reach - or at least appear to be - but the rest are still in play. I wouldn't be surprised to see Pitt land any two of Baker, Winfree, Jennings, and Custis. My gut says Baker, Jennings, and Custis are more likely than Winfree, and from that group of three I would think that Pitt has the best shot of landing Jennings and Custis. I won't count out Winfree and Baker, though.
Tight end
I wasn't sure how Pitt would approach tight end in this class. They had a decent crop of young tight ends on the roster, with Drew Carswell, Manasseh Garner, JP Holtz, and three freshmen (two of which will probably redshirt). With that group, I suspected that Pitt would sign one tight end in the class of 2014.
Now Carswell is gone, but I'm not sure that changes the equation much. No one graduates this year, and Carswell would have been done after next year anyway, so the class of 2014 recruits would be looked at to replace him as it was (they would be second-year players after he left).
I think that's why we haven't seen the coaches cast such a wide net as they did last year (we listed eight tight ends with offers in the class of 2013, whereas this year only lists five, and two are already committed). Looking at the three available tight ends, I don't think Pitt will get Ryan Izzo is a new offer, so I don't have a feel for his recruitment yet. I think Pitt will get a tight end in the class, but it may not be one who is currently on the offer sheet.
Offensive line
Pitt reloaded the offensive line with five recruits in the class of 2013, and I don't see the coaches slowing down with this class either. Pitt had 10 scholarship linemen in spring camp, and while they'll add the five freshmen this summer, they will lose three seniors after this season (and potentially more due to attrition).
Plus, the coaches have spent the better part of the last two years trying to rebuild the offensive line, and that's a job that can't be finished in one year, so I'm looking for the coaches to load up on linemen again. My current expectation is that Pitt will sign another four offensive linemen in this class.
The haul got started when Traverse City (Mich.) West guard his physicality.
So that's one linemen on board. Bethel Park's Alex Bookser are the top two local linemen and two of the top recruits on Pitt's board overall; I think Pitt can and probably will land Grimm, but I don't have as much confidence about Bookser.
Pitt has been recruiting Brady Taylor.
I could see Pitt holding onto Hayes, getting Grimm and LaRubbio, and then finding one more from the group or from the prospect camps to get to four linemen total in the class.
Defensive line
Pitt loaded up on defensive linemen in the class of 2013, too, with five total (three ends and two tackles). But I think they'd still like some more, maybe even as many as four in this class.
Just to re-state the reality that I think most understand: Pitt is rebuilding. And the most effective way to rebuild a football team is from the ground up, or rather, from the inside out. If you think back to Dave Wannstedt's rebuilding project, that was the basis of it, and when the team was really successful - 2009 - it had its best combination of talent on the offensive and defensive lines.
That's what Paul Chryst's staff is trying to do. They started with 10 linemen in the class of 2013, and I think they sign only a few less this year. I'm looking for Pitt to take four defensive linemen in the class of 2014, especially if the target number for the whole class is 20.
The two line recruits I would say are more likely to pick Pitt local: Jaleel Fields from Aliquippa. Boxen was looking like a defensive end at a svelte 250 on Sunday and took reps there during the camp, but he will put the weight back on and be a defensive tackle in college. Fields is short - he measured in at 6'0" - but he has a good burst off the ball and can be disruptive.
Pitt has been Boxen's only offer for a while, and I think he wants to see some more offers come in before he makes a decision. Regardless, I think it will be Pitt. And Fields was hoping Pitt would offer - which finally happened on Monday - but he'll hold off for a little while, as Aliquippa kids often do. In the end, though, I think Pitt will land both.
For the rest of the spots on the defensive line, Somerset (NJ) Franklin's pretty excited about it; as it stands, Pitt is his only offer, so that puts the Panthers in a good position, obviously.
I think we'll see Pitt get Boxen and Fields, possibly Outsey, and then one other defensive end. I don't think Pitt has a great shot with the other defensive ends on the offer sheet, like Rick Leonard. Henderson has some interest in visiting, but I don't see him picking Pitt.
The fourth defensive line spot - if they take four - will probably go to an offer that comes from spring evaluation or the prospect camps.
Linebacker
Pitt added two linebackers in the class of 2013 and four in the class of 2012, but at least one is gone from the class of 2012 - Deaysean Rippy - so that takes the numbers down a bit. There is potential among the lower classes, but I think the coaches will look to add a couple more to the group with the 2014 recruits.
And if they're going to take two, I think there are two names that stick out: Zaire Franklin. And I think Pitt is in strong position with both.
Winovich keeps adding offers and has said his top three schools are Pitt, Ohio State, and Michigan. Each one has its appeal: Ohio State is his "dream" school, he is close with Michigan commit Michael Ferns, and Pitt is Pitt - the hometown school he grew up watching.
Winovich won't give up anything publicly, but I still think he's leaning to Pitt. I think he is enjoying the process and is soaking up the attention from the schools, and he'll take at least one more visit to Ohio State and one to Michigan, but at the end of the day (probably in June), I think he'll pick Pitt. If so, Pitt will be getting a very good outside linebacker.
Franklin was in Pittsburgh in mid-April, and he likes the Panthers quite a bit. I wouldn't be surprised to see him pull the trigger by early summer either.
If Pitt could land Winovich and Franklin, I think the coaches would be very pleased with the haul and call it a day. They're in pursuit of other targets like Jaboree Williams, but I think Winovich and Franklin would make the coaches very pleased.
Defensive back
I think the coaches still want to bolster the depth of the defensive backfield, so I expect them to take probably three secondary recruits in this class.
At the top of the list is Dravon Henry. In my opinion, he might be the No. 1 player in the state, with enough tools to play cornerback, safety, or even running back in college. Seeing him in person on Sunday was really impressive, because his size is better than you would expect. Henry is a priority recruit for Pitt, and I think if you told the coaches they could have only one recruit from the WPIAL this year, it would most likely be Henry (he would be my pick, anyway).
So can Pitt get him? Well, he's an Aliquippa kid, so that's a good start. Pitt is in his top four with West Virginia, Penn State, and Ohio State. He supposedly has a few leans in there, but where he's leaning depends on who you talk to. Some will tell you Pitt and Penn State are on top (I tend to believe that); some say it's Penn State and West Virginia; some even say WVU alone holds the top spot on his list. Henry is such a key recruit for Pitt in this class that he needs the full-court press of attention as often as the Pitt coaches can give it to him.
It's tough to put percentages on Henry's destination, but it's even tougher to count out Pitt with an Aliquippa recruit. So I'll tentatively say I think Pitt gets him. And I'll definitively say that Pitt needs him.
After that, there are a bunch of options for the other two spots I see Pitt using on the defensive backfield. Malik Hooker could project on either side of the ball, but I think his growing recruitment and the recent offer from Penn State have him headed away from home.
I do think Pitt's got a good shot with Perkiomen Valley's Marcus Allen, although Allen's recruitment has really taken off.
I think Pitt can get Henry and Stewart and find a third defensive back for the class, either from the current list of offers or an athlete who emerges over the next ten months.
The Class
So let's recap it all. What could Pitt's class realistically look like?
Here's a fairly reasonable breakdown of what the class could look like.
Quarterback - Keller Chryst
Running back - Shai McKenzie, Qadree Ollison
Wide receiver - Dorian Baker, Adonis Jennings, Elijah Zeise
Tight end - TBA
Offensive line - Connor Hayes, Mike Grimm, Jarrett LaRubbio, TBA
Defensive line - Brock Boxen, Jaleel Fields, Jameer Outsey, TBA
Linebacker - Chase Winovich, Zaire Franklin
Defensive back - Dravon Henry, Rasaan Stewart, TBA
That's 20 recruits, all reasonably within reach for Pitt. And if Pitt landed those 20 recruits (well, 16 plus four TBA's), I don't think anyone would complain about that group.
Even if you removed Keller Chryst and replaced him with Andrew Ford and removed Qadree Ollison and replaced him with a running back who got an offer in the fall, it's still a very strong class, regardless of what happens with the TBA's.
Now, understand that I'm not predicting anything. That's just a list of recruits that Pitt has a reasonable chance of signing. I don't feel like I'm stretching the imagination too much to put that list together.
Looking ahead
May 10 is a date we're keeping an eye on. Pitt might try to get some of the top targets on campus that day. I haven't heard back from everyone, but Mike Grimm said he's planning on visiting that day.
A few others - Dravon Henry, Shai McKenzie, and Elijah Zeise, for instance - weren't sure yet if they could make it.
