Man it’s tough because he is a really good coach
But I understand the shake Em up sentiment
OT: Pens
- Thread starter mike 301
- Start date
But I understand the shake Em up sentiment
At this point I don’t think firing sully will make a difference. Is it going to magically make Carter Kappanen and Dumo not suck anymore ? Is it going to make Petry faster or Ruth and Jarry healthy ?
I like the idea of being sellers but do you trust clown shoes Hextall
I don’t think this team has a snowballs chance of making the playoffs with our without Sully. Dudes been great here and is still young enough to continue to coach at a high level. I’d leave the silly decision up to the next GM
I am not desperate to make the playoffs, but obviously this franchise is. What could a new coach do? Put in a more conservative system for one. It would limit some of the exposure you have on D. Also, maybe a new coach would have the balls to bench some of these guys. What made Sully great when he took over, he wasn't wed to some vets, he embraced some of the younger guys and well "let them play". Now they don't have some of those same guys, but by most analytics, Jeff Carter is simply a bottom 10 forward, I am not talking about on the Pens but in the entire NHL. Yet he never loses a shift.
I mean it is not personal, but it is business.
How many shifts do you think Malkin and Letang would cooperate on the conservative system? One? Two?
I think Crosby would do it and would will his line mates to do the same (though Guentzel wouldn’t be effective in the least at it, Rust might be).
But the other two guys wouldn’t do it. I frankly don’t think they COULD do it, even if they were outwardly acceptable to it… the internal wiring that Letang and Malkin have that make them superlative offensive wizards would not permit them to play a tight structured system. And that would doom it. I think you’d have to find some way to move those two for any chance of it to work. Maybe faced with a system they’d hate, they’d agree to be traded? Maybe one of them could fetch a fading #1 goalie needing new scenery…it’s over for Jarry.
The rest of the guys on the roster were not compiled to play that kind of system either. They’d try, but they aren’t rugged or disciplined enough. There’d have to be infusion of tougher guys from a Letang or Malkin (or Guentzel) trade … if they’d permit it…and if Hextall could be trusted to make one…
Forget it. They are screwed.
And then you sit the guys who don't buy in. They'll volunteer to be traded. Then you bring in guys who play in a more conservative system and say goodbye to "Showtime."
Yeah, but as mentioned you’d have to get multiple guys now with NTC to agree to be moved, because you need to offer something to get something. Nobody would take rubbish like Carter (at least not with his contract as well) and give back anything of worth.
I think the lower line guys would try, they would have little choice, really. But there are just too many of these guys (as well as most of the D as well) who simply do not have the physical makeup to play a tight, rugged, physical style. They were brought in to play the Go-Go style. They’ll get overwhelmed trying to back check and lay the wood for 60 minutes (and often get massacred by the opponents enforcers when they try). You can’t bench everyone, so then what?
This is why they are likely screwed.
If the stars are miserable enough, they'll leave. Tell them to.play defense and bench them when they don't and they'll scatter like cockroaches. Letang would be the first out of here. I remember him bristling about being criticized for playing too loose and saying he'd never change.
OK. And that may be part of it. They have No Trade Clauses. So a Barry Trotz or someone like that comes in, maybe they don't like it, maybe they leave, But hell, Ovy, Mike Green, John Carlson and Backstrom played for Trotz. So why couldn't Letang and Geno?
That's only if you want to tear everything down. Better to have stars buy-in and play a responsible game. I'm not asking stars to leave, I'm asking them to play defense.
Ryan Wilson has an interesting perspective:
(Source: https://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Ryan-Wilson/What-else-is-there-to-say/177/120729)
I’m not really sure what else there is to say about this team. I’m supposed to come up with words and try to have unique takes or angles on things, but I got nothing. The Penguins as currently constructed have big weaknesses and they will not overcome them. This isn’t something that crept up on the team and is a surprise. These were obvious issues that were diagnosed in the summertime.
I believe this is the tenth season I’ve covered the team and it has by far been one of the most boring. The same issues for months and months. There are only so many ways you can say the same things. This bottom six is an embarrassment. The goaltending can very rarely be relied on for both skill and injury reasons. The money wasted on bad depth players is appalling.
The team has lost nine divisional games in a row and ten out of their last 11. They’ve scored 17 goals with only three coming from the bottom six. Any successful playoff run has depth scoring. The Penguins have none. Remember when Brock McGinn was shooting around 20%? Yeah, he doesn’t have a point in like 23 games
Jeff Carter is Jeff Carter.
Teddy Blueger has two goals in his last 69 games.
Kasperi Kapanen’s season has played out exactly like you would think a Kasperi Kapanen season would play out.
When Drew O’Connor and Josh Archibald are the more reliable bottom six players, and are on pace for single digit goals, you know you’re sunk.
There are forwards on the market. The Penguins front office doesn’t appear to have any urgency. They’ve let this atrocity play out this long.
Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin have both played in every game this season and they are both point per game players. Jake Guentzel is on pace for 38 goals and 80 points, Rickard Rakell is on pace to score 31 goals. Jason Zucker has bounced back in a big way and is on pace for 52 points with the majority coming at 5v5. Bryan Rust is the one guy in the top six who has had a rougher go of things and even he is on pace for 20 goals and 48 points. The top six is a true strength. They have the hard to get pieces. The top six only accounts for 36.425M. It is great value. It really shouldn’t have been difficult to allocate the other ~45M of cap space in an efficient and productive way, yet here we are.
It is absolutely shameful to waste the kinds of years both Crosby and Malkin are having, utterly shameful.
Sidney Crosby said they’re going to find out what they are made of down the stretch. Unfortunately for the Captain it doesn’t really matter how well he plays. His team is made of front office malpractice and barring a miracle run of moves from a GM who doesn’t make them. This is who they are and who they will be in 2022-23.
What a joke.
(Source: https://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Ryan-Wilson/What-else-is-there-to-say/177/120729)
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I’m not really sure what else there is to say about this team. I’m supposed to come up with words and try to have unique takes or angles on things, but I got nothing. The Penguins as currently constructed have big weaknesses and they will not overcome them. This isn’t something that crept up on the team and is a surprise. These were obvious issues that were diagnosed in the summertime.
I believe this is the tenth season I’ve covered the team and it has by far been one of the most boring. The same issues for months and months. There are only so many ways you can say the same things. This bottom six is an embarrassment. The goaltending can very rarely be relied on for both skill and injury reasons. The money wasted on bad depth players is appalling.
The team has lost nine divisional games in a row and ten out of their last 11. They’ve scored 17 goals with only three coming from the bottom six. Any successful playoff run has depth scoring. The Penguins have none. Remember when Brock McGinn was shooting around 20%? Yeah, he doesn’t have a point in like 23 games
Jeff Carter is Jeff Carter.
Teddy Blueger has two goals in his last 69 games.
Kasperi Kapanen’s season has played out exactly like you would think a Kasperi Kapanen season would play out.
When Drew O’Connor and Josh Archibald are the more reliable bottom six players, and are on pace for single digit goals, you know you’re sunk.
There are forwards on the market. The Penguins front office doesn’t appear to have any urgency. They’ve let this atrocity play out this long.
Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin have both played in every game this season and they are both point per game players. Jake Guentzel is on pace for 38 goals and 80 points, Rickard Rakell is on pace to score 31 goals. Jason Zucker has bounced back in a big way and is on pace for 52 points with the majority coming at 5v5. Bryan Rust is the one guy in the top six who has had a rougher go of things and even he is on pace for 20 goals and 48 points. The top six is a true strength. They have the hard to get pieces. The top six only accounts for 36.425M. It is great value. It really shouldn’t have been difficult to allocate the other ~45M of cap space in an efficient and productive way, yet here we are.
It is absolutely shameful to waste the kinds of years both Crosby and Malkin are having, utterly shameful.
Sidney Crosby said they’re going to find out what they are made of down the stretch. Unfortunately for the Captain it doesn’t really matter how well he plays. His team is made of front office malpractice and barring a miracle run of moves from a GM who doesn’t make them. This is who they are and who they will be in 2022-23.
What a joke.
Can’t argue with anything you said. But for me personally I’d like to hold on to sully until a new GM is hired and let him make the decision. I just don’t think you toss really good coaches to the curb but that’s just me
Wow nailed it. This is why I don’t think there’s any move that should be made now. Why would you trust Hextal to fix the problem he created
Jeff Petry is now being shopped.
pittsburghhockeynow.com
Penguins Make Jeff Petry Available Before NHL Trade Deadline
Things are beginning to shake loose on the NHL trade market, although the Pittsburgh Penguins’ trade activity and hopes to improve before the March 3 deadline have as much to do with how much salary they can move as it will with who is available. Tuesday, a Western Conference team executive...
pittsburghhockeynow.com
Comments ....
- Looks like Pens are trying to shop Jeff Petry (apparently confirmed by executive from another team) ...... would free up cap space for another trade and get them out of an expensive contract for a second pairing defenseman and second PP point-man ..... but not sure if anyone interested .......
- Most trade rumors today have Pens looking at 3rd line C/F, physical defensemen, and back-up goalies ...... basically what most of us have been saying they need ....
- A major rebuild, if that is decided likely won't be until after the season ..... Pens are still in playoff hunt and suspect they will try to make a move or two before this trade deadline (3/3/23) in hopes of improving this years team but hopefully they don't mortgage the future (if they could trade Petry it would really help) ......
- You can make trades in the NHL any day of the year other than 9 days in December but any trade made after the trade deadline means the players involved can't participate in the Stanley Cup Playoffs that year, so I expect a move or two to try to improve this years team before the trade deadline but the major moves to be made in the off-season after the Playoffs ....
- Bottom 6 is so bad ...... Carter, McGinn, Kapanen, and Blueger all having terrible years ....... and Dumoulin has been bad as well ....... would not be surprising if most of these guys were gone for next season ....
- In last nights game, Sorokin was outstanding, Jarry was really good until he wasn't and that was that ...... Sorokin is certainly one of the top goalies in the league this year ......
- Looks like Pens are trying to shop Jeff Petry (apparently confirmed by executive from another team) ...... would free up cap space for another trade and get them out of an expensive contract for a second pairing defenseman and second PP point-man ..... but not sure if anyone interested .......
- Most trade rumors today have Pens looking at 3rd line C/F, physical defensemen, and back-up goalies ...... basically what most of us have been saying they need ....
- A major rebuild, if that is decided likely won't be until after the season ..... Pens are still in playoff hunt and suspect they will try to make a move or two before this trade deadline (3/3/23) in hopes of improving this years team but hopefully they don't mortgage the future (if they could trade Petry it would really help) ......
- You can make trades in the NHL any day of the year other than 9 days in December but any trade made after the trade deadline means the players involved can't participate in the Stanley Cup Playoffs that year, so I expect a move or two to try to improve this years team before the trade deadline but the major moves to be made in the off-season after the Playoffs ....
- Bottom 6 is so bad ...... Carter, McGinn, Kapanen, and Blueger all having terrible years ....... and Dumoulin has been bad as well ....... would not be surprising if most of these guys were gone for next season ....
- In last nights game, Sorokin was outstanding, Jarry was really good until he wasn't and that was that ...... Sorokin is certainly one of the top goalies in the league this year ......
The thing is, Dumo's contract is up. So he is gone. So is Blueger and McGinn. Carter being over 35, even if the Pens decide to buy him out his entire cap hit still counts. Kapanen, they likely get some relief. Also, a Million dollars is freed up from Jack Johnson's contract (yes $2 mill counts against the cap this year).
I posted on FB in a Pens group, the Pens spent $22 million on Geno, Letang, Rush, Rackell this offseason. They also spent $15 million on Carter, KK, Ruuta, Petry. The first four you can say money well spent, the second 4 are like throwing dollar bills away.
Now you also have the complications of Tristan Jarry. He's a FA. How much do you trust him, how much are you willing to spend and for how long??? Maybe this year knocks him down a peg or two. Who knows.
This is going to get worse before it gets better unfortunately. The window slammed shut against the NYR last year and the subsequent contract signings ensured that it was locked.
I really like Jarry
But you let him walk unless he takes a very friendly deal
About Carter's contract and cap hit ....... it used to be that anyone who signed a contract when they were 35 or older was on what is called a 35+ contract and if they retired or were bought out prior to the end of the contract, the full cap hit remained for the length of the contract ......
However, in 2020 that was amended so that anyone signing a 35+ contract where the contract had both no bonuses after the first year and the salary remained the same or increased as each year passed, that player could be bought out with the same rules/cap reduction as younger players ......
Carter's 2 year contract had no bonuses but it was front loaded in that his salary the first year was 3.25 M and 3.0 million the second year (the cap hit is 3.125 M/year) and because the salary was not the same or more in the second year as the first, if the Pens buy him out, there is no reduction in the salary cap hit ...... if they just would have made the salary the same in both years (3.125 M) instead of more the first year, then they could have gotten the cap reduction if they bought him out for next season ..... who structured that contract and why in that manner ? ...... if they would not have front loaded his contract, instead of a cap hit of 3.125 M next season, the cap hit would be 1.041 M a year for two years (saving 1.041 M over the two years) if they bought him out for next year .......
- The only way I can see them getting rid of his cap hit is trade him (which they can't unless he agrees as they also gave him a NMC) or put him on LTIR for the entire next season .....
As far as Jarry, it depends on how he does the rest of the season and what his medical condition is which they know first hand (will he be 100% next year or does he have chronic issues ?), it obviously also depends on what other goalies are available to replace Jarry, how much cap space we have and what other teams are willing to pay him if he tests free agency ...... multiple factors to consider ..... the way it looks right now, he probably won't get the money and term he expected although that could change .......
Does Jarry have any trade value? I don’t see this team going anywhere, let alone with the goalies they currently have. I’d look to trade him for a few prospects and find a semi-washed up vet to replace him.
They need to go into soft rebuild mode now. Unfortunately they likely don’t have the GM to do it.
They need to go into soft rebuild mode now. Unfortunately they likely don’t have the GM to do it.
I didn't know that. I saw in a Q&A with one of the beat writers and he cited the old rules for 35+ contracts.
The LTIR thing is interesting and BS. We know Tampa did this with Kucherov. I am hearing Vegas is doing this with Mark Stone. So why don't the Pens do this with Carter? Get him (contract) off the books. You can't move him. Pay him to stay home.
Oh sure. I am sure Edmonton would gladly take him and give a nice return for him. But then....you absolutely waived the white flag on the season.
I don’t think that would be the worst thing if you frame it as trying to legitimately compete within a year or two. Crosby and the big three must be aware this team isn’t capable of a deep run. Get them to buy in to a soft rebuild and start getting younger immediately.
The rules for players on LTIR and it's affect on cap hit are some of the most complicated in the NHL and you will have to read about them but to put a player on the LTIR they have to actually have an injury or medical condition that verifiably keeps them from playing for at least 10 games and 24 days .... however, some teams have become very creative in keeping players on LTIR for long periods with various injuries ...... but bottom line to a very complicated issue is that you just can't put anyone on LTIR for any reason as the league monitors those injuries although the league is very lax on oversight ..... I was simply saying in my other post above that the only ways to get cap relief from Carter's salary are if he is traded or can go on LTIR ..... I'm not saying either is likely so the Pens may have to get "creative".
Yeah but Tampa Bay really skirted the rules. Kucherov DID have an injury. And he DID miss more than 10 games. But he was healthy by the trade deadline and Tampa knew they were going to make the playoffs so they kept him on LTIR, made some trade deadline moves, and he miraculously was completely healthy at the start of the playoffs. And well...they won the Cup.
Prediction: Jarry will be injured again when you need him most
I think he’s decent in an actual tandem with another solid goalie so you can keep him more rested. But unfortunately it’s him and nothing else here.
I really don’t understand the logic of them thinking they didn’t need an upgrade over DeSmith. Probably just couldn’t afford it?
Toronto signed Ilya Samsonov for 2 years at $1.8 Million per year. The exact same contract DeSmith has.
He is 7th in GAA at 2.40 and 11th in Save % at .915.
But you wanted a veteran goalie , remember ?
Ilya is 25
Desmith is 31st and has 2 more nhl seasons of experience
I mean hell desmith’s save % is pretty much the same and better over his career
Seems the goalpost are moving
I just posted Samsonov as an example of "affordability". Yes, I preferred a veteran backup. But honestly, I preferred anyone with any pedigree over DeSmith.
Nice try Chuckie. Again.
Why is his pedigree better ?
Because he played somewhere else for less years with worse stats ?!?
You’re not very good at this
I just find it hard to believe they can make any trade involving the guys you want to dump (Petry, Dumo, Carter Kapp, BLuegger etc) to make any meaningful difference this year without sacrificing the future.
I think you're going to have to add in a Rust or Genztel type guy to make a decent trade. You have to think other GMs know the Pens are between a rock and a hard place so they dont have much leverage in trades.
I think you're going to have to add in a Rust or Genztel type guy to make a decent trade. You have to think other GMs know the Pens are between a rock and a hard place so they dont have much leverage in trades.
Yeah people forget that in the Tocchet trade, the best player involved was Mark Recchi (Paul Coffey also but I think he started his decline), and in the Francis/Ulf trade, the Pens gave up the top prospect in Zalapski.
Food for thought .....
- Samsonov signed a one year (not two year) contract with Toronto for 1.8 M and is having his best year in the NHL by far, so he will cost Toronto a lot more next year (he is a RFA after this year) ..... his contract next season will be a lot more than DeSmith's in all likelihood ......
- You are using this years stats (2022-2023) to say we should have signed Samsonov at the end of last season (2021-2022) to replace DeSmith this year ...... instead, I would look at the 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 stats of the goalies ......
- Also GAA and Save % are team stats that rely on both how the goalie and how the team in front of him play ....... I would rather use GSAx (goals saved above expected) and dSV% (delta save %) both of which compare how the goalie is doing compared to how an average NHL goalie would do if they faced the same shots that the goalie faced (makes the stats more goalie dependent and is mostly independent of how good or bad the team in front of the goalie performs) ......
- 2020-2021 season ..... dSV% - Samsonov was rated #45 in the league, DeSmith #10 ...... GSAx - Samsonov was #36, DeSmith #15.
- 2021-2022 season ...... dSV% - Samsonov #41, CDS #23 ..... GSAx - Samsonov #40, CDS #23
CDS was significantly better than Samsonov in those stats both years ..... when the Pens management looks at advanced stats like these, it is reasonable to see why they might keep DeSmith over signing Samsonov.....
- To be fair, the 2022-2023 stats so far show : dSV% - Samsonov rated #11 ,,, Jarry #18 ..... CDS #25 .... GSAx - Samsonov #14 .... Jarry #17 ,,,, CDS #27 ....... Samsonov will make a lot more money next year if he continues his present play .....
- Another interesting goalie stat is High Danger Shots Against per 60 minutes (HDSA/60) ...... the shots with the highest chance of scoring goals ...... Samsonov has averaged 7.6 HDSA/60 and CDS 11.1 which means CDS is facing 46% more HDSA a game than Samsonov ....... one indicator of how bad the Pens defense is playing and how that can affect basic goalie stats like GAA and SV% ....
- Finally, don't get me wrong, I agree with you that they need to upgrade over CDS for next year but the pool is often limited and you have to evaluate goalies accurately and cap space has to be considered, and you have to do this after you decide what you are doing with your #1 goalie who is a UFA all in the context of what you are also doing with the rest of your team ...... PENS ARE IN A REALLY TOUGH SPOT !!!
