Pitt vs Florida strengths vs weaknesses and areas to attack

[Vader_Storm]

Looking at some key things going into this game,


Rebound Margin

Pitt- 4th best in the country
Florida- 18th best in the country


This is strength on strength. Florida has legit size in the frontcourt. They have 2 centers both around 7 feet tall. Those 2 centers are shooting 67% from 3 combined on the year and shooting 71% and 61% respectively. Fede has had significant problems guarding bigs that pull him away from the basket. We need an A game here from our Centers (especially on defense) and both of our centers better set the tone and get physical with these guys. We need to control the paint in this game and need to have the rebound edge in this game. This might come down to who wants it more on the glass with effort and we need to win this battle.


Assist to turnover ratio

Pitt-11th best in the country

Florida- 196th in the country

This is an area we absolutely need to attack on defense. Florida can be loose with the basketball and our defensive pressure needs intensified here. I would run some double team action in the frontcourt against their bigs and look for areas to trap. We have depth, lets use it and not be afraid to foul. Florida as a team had 16 turnovers against Virginia. It should be expected that Florida is going to bring some pressure against our freshmen guards.


Fouls per game

Pitt-60th in the country
Florida- 184th in the country


Florida's bigs have had foul trouble this year. Pitt is shooting 72% within 5 feet of the basket. I would go after their bigs and try to get the ball inside and then work in the 3 point shooters. I would go right after their interior with consistent dribble penetration from our guards. Using a balance inside-out attack, the majority of our shots should be interior looks and 3's and I would limit the midrange game this game. No more fadeaway midrange shots from Hinson, who is 2-9 this year in the midrange and most of those shots were not close to going in.

Free throw shooting

Pitt - 278th in the country
Florida- 310th in the country

These are currently 2 of the worst free throw shooting teams in all of D1 basketball. We should be aggressive on defense, not give up any free points without a hard foul, and force this team to beat us from the line. Both teams are leaving a ton of free points on the table.



1st Defensive matchup to attack

Force Tyrese Samuel to shoot the midrange game and back off him. Samuel was 3-18 his last 12 games from the midrange last year and is 1-8 this year through 4 games from the midrange. That is 4-26 in 16 games, a paltry 15%. I would sag off of him and not give him anything clean in the interior. Capel has a history of telling guys to sag on defense. This is the player to really sag on.


Depth

Pitt- 6 players over 120 ORTG, 9 players over 100+ ORTG

Florida- 4 players over 120 ORTG, 9 players over 100+ ORTG


Area to attack- Riley Kugel. All hype, no serious substance yet. Kugel had an ORTG offensive power rating of 100 last year and is sitting at 99 right now and that is bad for a potential preseason all league player. Kugel has had 10 turnovers the last 3 games and is shooting the 3 ball at 28% this year. This is the guy I am choosing to force to beat us. Virginia beat this team by 3 points, they were +10 in turnover margin, and they forced Kugel to beat them and he couldn't do it. He shot 36% from the field on 19 shots and had 4 turnovers. Im following the same game plan.



Florida as a team is shooting 65% from within 5 feet of the basket. They are currently shooting 40% from the midrange and 33% from 3 as a team. And that is on top of 61% foul shooting. The main area of focus has to be to protect the interior on defense and sag down. Force them to make jump shots and force them to beat us with jump shots.


I hope we bring the energy on defense all game long. Im feeling optimistic going into this game.

 

[WillyDavis33]

Looking at Fla's highlights they have good athletes and size. I think the game will come down to free throws
( amount and %) and 3 pt %

 

[Protes]

Looking at some key things going into this game,


Rebound Margin

Pitt- 4th best in the country
Florida- 18th best in the country


This is strength on strength. Florida has legit size in the frontcourt. They have 2 centers both around 7 feet tall. Those 2 centers are shooting 67% from 3 combined on the year and shooting 71% and 61% respectively. Fede has had significant problems guarding bigs that pull him away from the basket. We need an A game here from our Centers (especially on defense) and both of our centers better set the tone and get physical with these guys. We need to control the paint in this game and need to have the rebound edge in this game. This might come down to who wants it more on the glass with effort and we need to win this battle.


Assist to turnover ratio

Pitt-11th best in the country

Florida- 196th in the country

This is an area we absolutely need to attack on defense. Florida can be loose with the basketball and our defensive pressure needs intensified here. I would run some double team action in the frontcourt against their bigs and look for areas to trap. We have depth, lets use it and not be afraid to foul. Florida as a team had 16 turnovers against Virginia. It should be expected that Florida is going to bring some pressure against our freshmen guards.


Fouls per game

Pitt-60th in the country
Florida- 184th in the country


Florida's bigs have had foul trouble this year. Pitt is shooting 72% within 5 feet of the basket. I would go after their bigs and try to get the ball inside and then work in the 3 point shooters. I would go right after their interior with consistent dribble penetration from our guards. Using a balance inside-out attack, the majority of our shots should be interior looks and 3's and I would limit the midrange game this game. No more fadeaway midrange shots from Hinson, who is 2-9 this year in the midrange and most of those shots were not close to going in.

Free throw shooting

Pitt - 278th in the country
Florida- 310th in the country

These are currently 2 of the worst free throw shooting teams in all of D1 basketball. We should be aggressive on defense, not give up any free points without a hard foul, and force this team to beat us from the line. Both teams are leaving a ton of free points on the table.



1st Defensive matchup to attack

Force Tyrese Samuel to shoot the midrange game and back off him. Samuel was 3-18 his last 12 games from the midrange last year and is 1-8 this year through 4 games from the midrange. That is 4-26 in 16 games, a paltry 15%. I would sag off of him and not give him anything clean in the interior. Capel has a history of telling guys to sag on defense. This is the player to really sag on.


Depth

Pitt- 6 players over 120 ORTG, 9 players over 100+ ORTG

Florida- 4 players over 120 ORTG, 9 players over 100+ ORTG


Area to attack- Riley Kugel. All hype, no serious substance yet. Kugel had an ORTG offensive power rating of 100 last year and is sitting at 99 right now and that is bad for a potential preseason all league player. Kugel has had 10 turnovers the last 3 games and is shooting the 3 ball at 28% this year. This is the guy I am choosing to force to beat us. Virginia beat this team by 3 points, they were +10 in turnover margin, and they forced Kugel to beat them and he couldn't do it. He shot 36% from the field on 19 shots and had 4 turnovers. Im following the same game plan.



Florida as a team is shooting 65% from within 5 feet of the basket. They are currently shooting 40% from the midrange and 33% from 3 as a team. And that is on top of 61% foul shooting. The main area of focus has to be to protect the interior on defense and sag down. Force them to make jump shots and force them to beat us with jump shots.


I hope we bring the energy on defense all game long. Im feeling optimistic going into this game.

What about the other way around? If I'm FL, I'm forcing Fede and Austin to beat me. How do we counter this, which seems like the obvious plan against us?

 

[Pitt2006]

Looking at Fla's highlights they have good athletes and size. I think the game will come down to free throws
( amount and %) and 3 pt %

Those are the highlights. Watching the game against FSU, they had a ton of open 3s that Pitt would take and opportunities for more as well. They can also hit 3s and have some bigs that are good, but young and turnover prone in early going. Hinson and Bubs range will be on display. They give up a ton of offensive rebounds and commit a lot of turnovers. UF does get back quick on defense so have to be careful with quick transitions, but that where offensive rebounding is key. Teams can’t give Pitt second chances. It’s a winnable game.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

As I was saying last year, the team that outshoots the other by 10% from 3 will win. The teams are similarly talented. College basketball is really just a 3 point shooting contest in games like this. Whoever shoots better from 3 will win (if by 10% or more)

 

[neench]

They kind of handled FSU pretty well and only lost by 3, I think, to Virginia. Pitt has not been tested. I just hope we get at least one win out of Brooklyn.

 

[Chescat]

As I was saying last year, the team that outshoots the other by 10% from 3 will win. The teams are similarly talented. College basketball is really just a 3 point shooting contest in games like this. Whoever shoots better from 3 will win (if by 10% or more)

You've said this before on here. So ok, I'll go with it,
but with a different twist. How about the team with
the better defense will win. By doing so, that team
will more than likely reduce those threes and by
virtue of their bertter defense, they will more
than likely outshoot the other team. Now I
obviously realize that's a simple explanation.
However it at least gives some context to your
saying it's "really just a 3 point shooting contest."
That almost makes it seem like it's nothing
more than a game of HORSE. LOL

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

You've said this before on here. So ok, I'll go with it,
but with a different twist. How about the team with
the better defense will win. By doing so, that team
will more than likely reduce those threes and by
virtue of their bertter defense, they will more
than likely outshoot the other team. Now I
obviously realize that's a simple explanation.
However it at least gives some context to your
saying it's "really just a 3 point shooting contest."
That almost makes it seem like it's nothing
more than a game of HORSE. LOL

I hear what you are saying but unless the defense is elite (and few are), teams are going to get open looks or semi-contested looks. That's why I say its really just a 3 point shooting contest. I dont think Pitt's defense or Florida's defense will be able to lock down the other team's 3 point shooters. Whoever outshoots the other by 10% will win.

 

[Ski11585]

I hear what you are saying but unless the defense is elite (and few are), teams are going to get open looks or semi-contested looks. That's why I say its really just a 3 point shooting contest. I dont think Pitt's defense or Florida's defense will be able to lock down the other team's 3 point shooters. Whoever outshoots the other by 10% will win.

Fun facts from recent games:

• Marquette 71 UCLA 69
  • UCLA: 38.5% from 3
  • Marquette: 32.4% from 3
• Uconn 81 Texas 71
  • Uconn: 29.2% from 3
  • Texas: 31.3% from 3
• Texas 81 Louisville 80
  • Texas: 11.8% from 3
  • Louisville: 43.8% from 3
• JMU 76 Radford 73
  • Radford: 36.8% from 3
  • JMU: 25% from 3

But please. Keep using this arbitrary statistic!

 

[Chescat]

What also has to be looked at is how many three
are actually attempted. Imagine this, Team A goes
for 2 -3 on their threes.. for 66%. Team B goes 1-10
on their threes for a lousy 10%. However Team B
outscores them from the field by two FG's and a
few FT's. Team B wins by several pts, thus defeating
the 10% premise. SMF, I can see your pt. but it's
not as simplistic as the 10% differential. BTW, I don't
keep score or do the W and L thing. LOL

 

[Pitt2006]

Correlation is not causation but SMf has a point for Pitt, which relies heavily on the 3. When it falls they have a great chance, when it doesn’t then it could be dicey. Though I feel they are more balanced than last year hence then still beating FGCU by double digits despite being outshot from 3.

Pitt is 2-0 this year when over 10 percent more made
1-0 when over 5 percent difference
1-0 when being outshot from 3

Last year in the tourney the were 1-0 in games they were more than 10 (Iowa State), 1-0 in games they were ahead but barely (Ms State nearly equal but still Pitt ahead), and 0-1 when outshot percentage wise from 3 to Xavier (33 to 30).

In their other losses
Pitt 28 Duke 42 ACC tourney
Pitt 42 Miami 47 Last game where Pitt lost on 3
Pitt 32 ND 37 Pitt bad loss end of season
Pitt 14 VT 47 Road loss
Pitt 25 FSU 50 Bad home loss game
Pitt 27 Duke 22 close road loss
Pitt 38 Clemson 42 Home loss but we never beat these guys and just need to forfeit going forward
Pitt 48 Vanderbilt 32 One point road loss
Pitt 23 VCU 27
Pitt 30 Michigan 45
Pitt 21 WVU 38

So the bigger theme usually is when Pitt outshoots its opponents from 3, they usually win or come extremely close.

 

[hilltoppanther]

Just like every other game, it will come down to the 4 factors...

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Fun facts from recent games:

• Marquette 71 UCLA 69
  • UCLA: 38.5% from 3
  • Marquette: 32.4% from 3
• Uconn 81 Texas 71
  • Uconn: 29.2% from 3
  • Texas: 31.3% from 3
• Texas 81 Louisville 80
  • Texas: 11.8% from 3
  • Louisville: 43.8% from 3
• JMU 76 Radford 73
  • Radford: 36.8% from 3
  • JMU: 25% from 3

But please. Keep using this arbitrary statistic!

I've done that for him before when he's made his ridiculous claim, so I can tell you first had that it doesn't work. Once he gets an idea in his head, no matter how divorced from reality it is, no matter what evidence is shown to him contrary to his thoughts, he simply won't let it go. Because he simply can't bring himself to say "damn, I got that one wrong."

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Fun facts from recent games:

• Marquette 71 UCLA 69
  • UCLA: 38.5% from 3
  • Marquette: 32.4% from 3
• Uconn 81 Texas 71
  • Uconn: 29.2% from 3
  • Texas: 31.3% from 3
• Texas 81 Louisville 80
  • Texas: 11.8% from 3
  • Louisville: 43.8% from 3
• JMU 76 Radford 73
  • Radford: 36.8% from 3
  • JMU: 25% from 3

But please. Keep using this arbitrary statistic!

Did you honestly pull 4 out 2000 games? Lolololol. And 2 of them dont even meet my criteria as Marquette and UConn were within 10%.

Remember: If you outshoot your opponent by 10% from 3, you will win 80% of those games.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I've done that for him before when he's made his ridiculous claim, so I can tell you first had that it doesn't work. Once he gets an idea in his head, no matter how divorced from reality it is, no matter what evidence is shown to him contrary to his thoughts, he simply won't let it go. Because he simply can't bring himself to say "damn, I got that one wrong."

Nope. I'm right. You are just jealous that the new metric I created is getting national pub.

Outshoot by 10% from 3 = 80% chance to win

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Nope. I'm right. You are just jealous that the new metric I created is getting national pub.

Outshoot by 10% from 3 = 80% chance to win

National pub? What, did you go into an Applebees and tell your theory to everyone waiting for their dinner?

As always, there is a lot more to it that just one thing. Any one thing. Which people that understand basketball understand. And you don't.

 

[Chescat]

As I was saying last year, the team that outshoots the other by 10% from 3 will win. The teams are similarly talented. College basketball is really just a 3 point shooting contest in games like this. Whoever shoots better from 3 will win (if by 10% or more)

Nope. I'm right. You are just jealous that the new metric I created is getting national pub.

Outshoot by 10% from 3 = 80% chance to win

C'mon SMF, first it was "whoever shoots better from 3
will win (if by 10% or more)."

Then you changed it to with an "80% chance to win." First
they WILL win, now only 80%. You did this after a few of
us challenged your premise. You didn't answer the scenario
I posted above that showed how Team A could lose to
Team B even though they outshot them from 3 as you
insisted.

 

[Ski11585]

Kansas outshot Marquette by 11% from three but lost by 14.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Kansas outshot Marquette by 11% from three but lost by 14.

Now run the other 2000 games and get back to me. Why do you keep listing random individual games. Do you understand statistics and the laws of large numbers? Its like Im saying its nearly impossible to win the lottery and you link an article showing some guy won the Powerball. Ok, yea, but what about the tens of millions who lost?

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

C'mon SMF, first it was "whoever shoots better from 3
will win (if by 10% or more)."

Then you changed it to with an "80% chance to win." First
they WILL win, now only 80%. You did this after a few of
us challenged your premise. You didn't answer the scenario
I posted above that showed how Team A could lose to
Team B even though they outshot them from 3 as you
insisted.

3 point shooting with a 10% difference between teams

Going back to Mon, Jan 23 VT 53 Duke 39 Miami 51 FSU 14 Clemson 45 GT 17 Pitt 49 Wake 37 Lou 50 BC 36 (BC won) NC State 47 Wake 33 Duke 39 GT 23 FSU 43 Clem 31 (Clem won by 1) UVa 43 Syr 20 Pitt 37 UNC 19 Lou 37 GT 26 NCSU 60 FSU 30 Wake 47 ND 19 Duke 36 UNC 26 Miami 41 Duke 26...

pittsburgh.forums.rivals.com

 

[Ski11585]

Now run the other 2000 games and get back to me. Why do you keep listing random individual games. Do you understand statistics and the laws of large numbers? Its like Im saying its nearly impossible to win the lottery and you link an article showing some guy won the Powerball. Ok, yea, but what about the tens of millions who lost?

Because your stat is dumb and like @Joe the Panther Fan noted there are a host of factors that contribute to winning.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Because your stat is dumb and like @Joe the Panther Fan noted there are a host of factors that contribute to winning.

80%

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

National pub? What, did you go into an Applebees and tell your theory to everyone waiting for their dinner?

Yes. Its a national chain.

 

[Chescat]

Yes. Its a national chain.

There ya go! Now we can believe you. Applebees explains
it.

 

[KennyTheKangaroo]

The only thing worse than the 9:30 start to this game is the comments of this preview thread

 

[nycpanther98]

National pub? What, did you go into an Applebees and tell your theory to everyone waiting for their dinner?

As always, there is a lot more to it that just one thing. Any one thing. Which people that understand basketball understand. And you don't.

He did and I was there. What's your problem with Applebees? I was feeling good in the neighborhood until I read this.

 

[Protes]

What about the other way around? If I'm FL, I'm forcing Fede and Austin to beat me. How do we counter this, which seems like the obvious plan against us?

This is more or less how things played out. The other team can pretty much just ignore Fede and Austin. Total non-factors. Put all the effort into making things hard on Bub and Blake. Let Leggett get his. No problem. These guys are going to be gassed when the season comes down the stretch.

 

[Pitt2006]

This is more or less how things played out. The other team can pretty much just ignore Fede and Austin. Total non-factors. Put all the effort into making things hard on Bub and Blake. Let Leggett get his. No problem. These guys are going to be gassed when the season comes down the stretch.

Yep, sort of what happened last year. Not enough depth. They can beat OsU, Mizz, and WvU though. Regroup for Clemson and see how much they improve now and then. It’s a long season.

 

[Protes]

Yep, sort of what happened last year. Not enough depth. They can beat OsU, Mizz, and WvU though. Regroup for Clemson and see how much they improve now and then. It’s a long season.

Last year, our starters presented 3-ball threats at the 1 through 4 spots. And Sibande offered a very good 6th man. This year, our scoring threats are limited to the 1 through 3 with no quality 6th man. We've traded off O for, arguably, better D/rebounding. But I'm not sure it's going to be enough for a return to the Big Dance. Sucks we lost Dior and Kante. I think our prospects would be much better if that hadn't happened. As it stands, we really need the twins, Austin and Jaland to step up.