Looking at some key things going into this game,
Rebound Margin
Pitt- 4th best in the country
Florida- 18th best in the country
This is strength on strength. Florida has legit size in the frontcourt. They have 2 centers both around 7 feet tall. Those 2 centers are shooting 67% from 3 combined on the year and shooting 71% and 61% respectively. Fede has had significant problems guarding bigs that pull him away from the basket. We need an A game here from our Centers (especially on defense) and both of our centers better set the tone and get physical with these guys. We need to control the paint in this game and need to have the rebound edge in this game. This might come down to who wants it more on the glass with effort and we need to win this battle.
Assist to turnover ratio
Pitt-11th best in the country
Florida- 196th in the country
This is an area we absolutely need to attack on defense. Florida can be loose with the basketball and our defensive pressure needs intensified here. I would run some double team action in the frontcourt against their bigs and look for areas to trap. We have depth, lets use it and not be afraid to foul. Florida as a team had 16 turnovers against Virginia. It should be expected that Florida is going to bring some pressure against our freshmen guards.
Fouls per game
Pitt-60th in the country
Florida- 184th in the country
Florida's bigs have had foul trouble this year. Pitt is shooting 72% within 5 feet of the basket. I would go after their bigs and try to get the ball inside and then work in the 3 point shooters. I would go right after their interior with consistent dribble penetration from our guards. Using a balance inside-out attack, the majority of our shots should be interior looks and 3's and I would limit the midrange game this game. No more fadeaway midrange shots from Hinson, who is 2-9 this year in the midrange and most of those shots were not close to going in.
Free throw shooting
Pitt - 278th in the country
Florida- 310th in the country
These are currently 2 of the worst free throw shooting teams in all of D1 basketball. We should be aggressive on defense, not give up any free points without a hard foul, and force this team to beat us from the line. Both teams are leaving a ton of free points on the table.
1st Defensive matchup to attack
Force Tyrese Samuel to shoot the midrange game and back off him. Samuel was 3-18 his last 12 games from the midrange last year and is 1-8 this year through 4 games from the midrange. That is 4-26 in 16 games, a paltry 15%. I would sag off of him and not give him anything clean in the interior. Capel has a history of telling guys to sag on defense. This is the player to really sag on.
Depth
Pitt- 6 players over 120 ORTG, 9 players over 100+ ORTG
Florida- 4 players over 120 ORTG, 9 players over 100+ ORTG
Area to attack- Riley Kugel. All hype, no serious substance yet. Kugel had an ORTG offensive power rating of 100 last year and is sitting at 99 right now and that is bad for a potential preseason all league player. Kugel has had 10 turnovers the last 3 games and is shooting the 3 ball at 28% this year. This is the guy I am choosing to force to beat us. Virginia beat this team by 3 points, they were +10 in turnover margin, and they forced Kugel to beat them and he couldn't do it. He shot 36% from the field on 19 shots and had 4 turnovers. Im following the same game plan.
Florida as a team is shooting 65% from within 5 feet of the basket. They are currently shooting 40% from the midrange and 33% from 3 as a team. And that is on top of 61% foul shooting. The main area of focus has to be to protect the interior on defense and sag down. Force them to make jump shots and force them to beat us with jump shots.
I hope we bring the energy on defense all game long. Im feeling optimistic going into this game.
Rebound Margin
Pitt- 4th best in the country
Florida- 18th best in the country
This is strength on strength. Florida has legit size in the frontcourt. They have 2 centers both around 7 feet tall. Those 2 centers are shooting 67% from 3 combined on the year and shooting 71% and 61% respectively. Fede has had significant problems guarding bigs that pull him away from the basket. We need an A game here from our Centers (especially on defense) and both of our centers better set the tone and get physical with these guys. We need to control the paint in this game and need to have the rebound edge in this game. This might come down to who wants it more on the glass with effort and we need to win this battle.
Assist to turnover ratio
Pitt-11th best in the country
Florida- 196th in the country
This is an area we absolutely need to attack on defense. Florida can be loose with the basketball and our defensive pressure needs intensified here. I would run some double team action in the frontcourt against their bigs and look for areas to trap. We have depth, lets use it and not be afraid to foul. Florida as a team had 16 turnovers against Virginia. It should be expected that Florida is going to bring some pressure against our freshmen guards.
Fouls per game
Pitt-60th in the country
Florida- 184th in the country
Florida's bigs have had foul trouble this year. Pitt is shooting 72% within 5 feet of the basket. I would go after their bigs and try to get the ball inside and then work in the 3 point shooters. I would go right after their interior with consistent dribble penetration from our guards. Using a balance inside-out attack, the majority of our shots should be interior looks and 3's and I would limit the midrange game this game. No more fadeaway midrange shots from Hinson, who is 2-9 this year in the midrange and most of those shots were not close to going in.
Free throw shooting
Pitt - 278th in the country
Florida- 310th in the country
These are currently 2 of the worst free throw shooting teams in all of D1 basketball. We should be aggressive on defense, not give up any free points without a hard foul, and force this team to beat us from the line. Both teams are leaving a ton of free points on the table.
1st Defensive matchup to attack
Force Tyrese Samuel to shoot the midrange game and back off him. Samuel was 3-18 his last 12 games from the midrange last year and is 1-8 this year through 4 games from the midrange. That is 4-26 in 16 games, a paltry 15%. I would sag off of him and not give him anything clean in the interior. Capel has a history of telling guys to sag on defense. This is the player to really sag on.
Depth
Pitt- 6 players over 120 ORTG, 9 players over 100+ ORTG
Florida- 4 players over 120 ORTG, 9 players over 100+ ORTG
Area to attack- Riley Kugel. All hype, no serious substance yet. Kugel had an ORTG offensive power rating of 100 last year and is sitting at 99 right now and that is bad for a potential preseason all league player. Kugel has had 10 turnovers the last 3 games and is shooting the 3 ball at 28% this year. This is the guy I am choosing to force to beat us. Virginia beat this team by 3 points, they were +10 in turnover margin, and they forced Kugel to beat them and he couldn't do it. He shot 36% from the field on 19 shots and had 4 turnovers. Im following the same game plan.
Florida as a team is shooting 65% from within 5 feet of the basket. They are currently shooting 40% from the midrange and 33% from 3 as a team. And that is on top of 61% foul shooting. The main area of focus has to be to protect the interior on defense and sag down. Force them to make jump shots and force them to beat us with jump shots.
I hope we bring the energy on defense all game long. Im feeling optimistic going into this game.