They won by 7 simply because Pitt left points all over the field. I'm not talking about the refs or Pitts & Amara getting abused -- simply situations in which it was reasonable to expect Pitt to have done better.
1) Missed the PAT on the final TD. (-1 pt)
2) Starting at the UNC 15, we run dumb plays on 2nd and 3rd down (James up the gut for the second time in a row, no short hooks when we need 3 yards) and end up with a FG instead of the TD we needed when down 3-20. (-4 pts)
3) Ford fumble with 4:09 left in the 1st half at the Pitt 38. Who knows how far that drive goes without the fumble, but we moved 13 yards in 2 plays, gained over 400 in the game so it's not like we were in constant stall out mode, and our previous two drives that resulted in no points were 3:31 and 4:27 long. It's reasonable to think we could have killed the half on the way to a FG. Instead we give UNC a short field (their next 5 drives went 22, 5, 57, 39, and 18 yards, generating 3 total points) and they get a quick TD. We go into halftime down 20-3, instead of something like 13-6. Conservatively, I'll call this a net -7 point swing. (-7 pts)
4) Clock management on the final drive of the first half was terrible. We let 12 seconds run off the clock as Peterman is begging for a play before calling a timeout most fans were yelling for once Peterman went down after his run, and we still move to the UNC 18 quickly. If we have 20 seconds in the red zone instead of 8, we get 2 shots at the end zone and at worst a short FG. I won't give Pitt any more points left on the field with this final drive because it overlaps with what could/should have happened with #3 above, which again confirms how conservative that -7 point swing is. (0 pts, see above)
5) Hood fumble at the Pitt 36 right at the end of the 3rd quarter bounces in the only way that it can for UNC to recover it. Maddox was right on top of it if it had bounced in approximately 80-90% of the directions it could have gone. Instead it mercifully goes right under the UNC TE who still could have lost it. Considering we got the ball only 16 yards downfield (punt went into the end zone for a touchback) and we went 3-and-out on the next drive, that's 0 points, but worth mentioning. (0 pts)
6) This last point was a larger problem so I don't know how to properly account for how much this hurt us, but Ollison averaged 5.4 yards/carry and only ran 10 times, with only 3 of those coming after the 1st quarter. His longest 2 carries only went for 19 yards, so even his remaining 8 carries still averaged 4.4 yards/carry. That 3-and-out above ended with Peterman not making it on a sneak on 3rd-and-1; Ollison would have made it, and we all know it. James had 12 for 44 (3.7 yards/carry), with a long of 9 so his others were 11 for 35 (3.2 yards/carry - ugh). We're facing a D that's great against the pass and bad against the run, so we sit our hot RB for most of the game and have Peterman throw it 42 times. Again, it's really tough to quantify what this cost us, but it's more than fair to say it cost us at least 6 points. (-6 pts)
There was also the Jarrett (I think it was him) shoulda-been sack early in the 2nd quarter that instead was facemasking and gave Switzer the time to lose Pitts/Amara (can't remember which) and end up with a 71-yard TD; there's another play if run again is a sack and 3rd-and-12 for UNC most of the time but I won't put it above because one can logically say Williams was going to evade the sack anyway (hard to say considering a huge DT grabbing jersey drops him there). We only gained 30 less yards than UNC, but with this basic stuff above in normal situations (or with normal strategic gameplanning/adjustments) we probably improved our point disparity by 18 points, so losing by 7 becomes winning by 11. And don't say UNC let up the last few drives by primarily running because a) they're great at running and Williams is known for bad decision making, so this was the best choice no matter what the point spread at that point, b) they've been running it up on teams all year, c) as an unranked team they desperately need to make a big statement against a ranked team. Also, don't say the punt block was a fluke since we barely missed blocking the punter's first punt, and we blocked another one earlier this year -- it's now part of who we are.
Could have won, should have won -- now it's just motivation to go knock ND's heads off next week!
1) Missed the PAT on the final TD. (-1 pt)
2) Starting at the UNC 15, we run dumb plays on 2nd and 3rd down (James up the gut for the second time in a row, no short hooks when we need 3 yards) and end up with a FG instead of the TD we needed when down 3-20. (-4 pts)
3) Ford fumble with 4:09 left in the 1st half at the Pitt 38. Who knows how far that drive goes without the fumble, but we moved 13 yards in 2 plays, gained over 400 in the game so it's not like we were in constant stall out mode, and our previous two drives that resulted in no points were 3:31 and 4:27 long. It's reasonable to think we could have killed the half on the way to a FG. Instead we give UNC a short field (their next 5 drives went 22, 5, 57, 39, and 18 yards, generating 3 total points) and they get a quick TD. We go into halftime down 20-3, instead of something like 13-6. Conservatively, I'll call this a net -7 point swing. (-7 pts)
4) Clock management on the final drive of the first half was terrible. We let 12 seconds run off the clock as Peterman is begging for a play before calling a timeout most fans were yelling for once Peterman went down after his run, and we still move to the UNC 18 quickly. If we have 20 seconds in the red zone instead of 8, we get 2 shots at the end zone and at worst a short FG. I won't give Pitt any more points left on the field with this final drive because it overlaps with what could/should have happened with #3 above, which again confirms how conservative that -7 point swing is. (0 pts, see above)
5) Hood fumble at the Pitt 36 right at the end of the 3rd quarter bounces in the only way that it can for UNC to recover it. Maddox was right on top of it if it had bounced in approximately 80-90% of the directions it could have gone. Instead it mercifully goes right under the UNC TE who still could have lost it. Considering we got the ball only 16 yards downfield (punt went into the end zone for a touchback) and we went 3-and-out on the next drive, that's 0 points, but worth mentioning. (0 pts)
6) This last point was a larger problem so I don't know how to properly account for how much this hurt us, but Ollison averaged 5.4 yards/carry and only ran 10 times, with only 3 of those coming after the 1st quarter. His longest 2 carries only went for 19 yards, so even his remaining 8 carries still averaged 4.4 yards/carry. That 3-and-out above ended with Peterman not making it on a sneak on 3rd-and-1; Ollison would have made it, and we all know it. James had 12 for 44 (3.7 yards/carry), with a long of 9 so his others were 11 for 35 (3.2 yards/carry - ugh). We're facing a D that's great against the pass and bad against the run, so we sit our hot RB for most of the game and have Peterman throw it 42 times. Again, it's really tough to quantify what this cost us, but it's more than fair to say it cost us at least 6 points. (-6 pts)
There was also the Jarrett (I think it was him) shoulda-been sack early in the 2nd quarter that instead was facemasking and gave Switzer the time to lose Pitts/Amara (can't remember which) and end up with a 71-yard TD; there's another play if run again is a sack and 3rd-and-12 for UNC most of the time but I won't put it above because one can logically say Williams was going to evade the sack anyway (hard to say considering a huge DT grabbing jersey drops him there). We only gained 30 less yards than UNC, but with this basic stuff above in normal situations (or with normal strategic gameplanning/adjustments) we probably improved our point disparity by 18 points, so losing by 7 becomes winning by 11. And don't say UNC let up the last few drives by primarily running because a) they're great at running and Williams is known for bad decision making, so this was the best choice no matter what the point spread at that point, b) they've been running it up on teams all year, c) as an unranked team they desperately need to make a big statement against a ranked team. Also, don't say the punt block was a fluke since we barely missed blocking the punter's first punt, and we blocked another one earlier this year -- it's now part of who we are.
Could have won, should have won -- now it's just motivation to go knock ND's heads off next week!
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