Yesterday was the tenth and final edition of the four-team CFP semifinals that were adopted after a big push in the years leading up to 2014. However, how often was the result different from the BCS, where only the No. 1 and 2 teams had access to the national championship? Here’s a breakdown by year:
2014: #2 Oregon vs #4 Ohio State (winner)
2015: #1 Clemson vs #2 Alabama (winner)
2016: #1 Alabama vs #2 Clemson (winner)
2017: #3 Georgia vs #4 Alabama (winner)
2018: #1 Alabama vs #2 Clemson (winner)
2019: #1 LSU (winner) vs #3 Clemson
2020: #1 Alabama (winner) vs #3 Ohio State
2021: #1 Alabama vs #3 Georgia (winner)
2022: #1 Georgia (winner) vs #3 TCU
2023: #1 Michigan vs #2 Washington
Of the ten seasons, only four of them featured the top two teams. In fact, there was only a 50% higher probability of the top two teams making the national championship than neither of them. Meanwhile, last night’s results guaranteed that 70% of the national champions were either the #1 or #2-ranked teams.
Is it “right” that the 2014 Buckeyes won the national championship despite there being three undefeated teams who arguably were more “deserving?” Is it fair that twice a team who didn’t win their own conference (2017 Alabama, 2021 Georgia) still made the CFP and ultimately won it? Does that take away from the regular season if the new system rewarded teams who got hot at the right time?
Just some food for thought.
2014: #2 Oregon vs #4 Ohio State (winner)
2015: #1 Clemson vs #2 Alabama (winner)
2016: #1 Alabama vs #2 Clemson (winner)
2017: #3 Georgia vs #4 Alabama (winner)
2018: #1 Alabama vs #2 Clemson (winner)
2019: #1 LSU (winner) vs #3 Clemson
2020: #1 Alabama (winner) vs #3 Ohio State
2021: #1 Alabama vs #3 Georgia (winner)
2022: #1 Georgia (winner) vs #3 TCU
2023: #1 Michigan vs #2 Washington
Of the ten seasons, only four of them featured the top two teams. In fact, there was only a 50% higher probability of the top two teams making the national championship than neither of them. Meanwhile, last night’s results guaranteed that 70% of the national champions were either the #1 or #2-ranked teams.
Is it “right” that the 2014 Buckeyes won the national championship despite there being three undefeated teams who arguably were more “deserving?” Is it fair that twice a team who didn’t win their own conference (2017 Alabama, 2021 Georgia) still made the CFP and ultimately won it? Does that take away from the regular season if the new system rewarded teams who got hot at the right time?
Just some food for thought.