If I told you in November that Pitt would win 22 games, finish 4th in the conference, losing in the semis in a close game to a #1 NCAAT seed and that the ACC would place 4 teams in the Sweet 16 and 3 teams in the Elite 8, which would seem more likely:
A- Pitt making the Sweet 16
B- Pitt missing the tourney
A- Pitt making the Sweet 16
B- Pitt missing the tourney
