5 more for Orange Bowl.....favored in all

[Sean Miller Fan]

I would have had Miami favored over us before this weekend but now I have us as 1-3 point favorite. Also, slight favorites over UNC and @ VT. GT looks a bit trickier now and BC with AJ Dillon, you never know. Its doubtful we win all 5 and break our 4 decade streak of 3 or more regular season losses but its right there in front of us.

Virginia is at Louisville, at UNC, and has VT at home, who they haven't beaten in forever, so chances are they lose another. If so, and we win out, I think we go to the Orange Bowl.

 

[BFo8]

I would have had Miami favored over us before this weekend but now I have us as 1-3 point favorite. Also, slight favorites over UNC and @ VT. GT looks a bit trickier now and BC with AJ Dillon, you never know. Its doubtful we win all 5 and break our 4 decade streak of 3 or more regular season losses but its right there in front of us.

Virginia is at Louisville, at UNC, and has VT at home, who they haven't beaten in forever, so chances are they lose another. If so, and we win out, I think we go to the Orange Bowl.

If Clemson goes to the playoff why wouldn’t Notre Dame or Virginia go to the Orange Bowl instead of Pitt?

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

If Clemson goes to the playoff why wouldn’t Notre Dame or Virginia go to the Orange Bowl instead of Pitt?

Notre Dame can only steal an Orange Bowl bid over the SEC or Big Ten, not the ACC. They can steal all over bowl games over the ACC.

In my scenario, Pitt would be the 10-3 Coastal champ on a 9 game winning streak. UVa would be 9-3 with a head to head win in August over Pitt and would have a case but Pitt's 3 losses would be better (@ Penn State, Clemson, UVa). UVa would have losses to Miami and a 7-5 type of team if they lose another. Their wins would be similar. Pitt would have the OOC over UCF but they may finish 9-3 or 8-4.

The other thing to consider is if Notre Dame finishes higher than all available Big Ten/SEC teams, the CFP committee (who decides who goes to the Orange Bowl) might want to put Pitt in there vs ND since UVa already played them. That said, if PSU is the Big Ten/SEC/ND rep, I dont know they'd want to set up a Pitt/PSU rematch.

 

[BFo8]

Notre Dame can only steal an Orange Bowl bid over the SEC or Big Ten, not the ACC. They can steal all over bowl games over the ACC.

In my scenario, Pitt would be the 10-3 Coastal champ on a 9 game winning streak. UVa would be 9-3 with a head to head win in August over Pitt and would have a case but Pitt's 3 losses would be better (@ Penn State, Clemson, UVa). UVa would have losses to Miami and a 7-5 type of team if they lose another. Their wins would be similar. Pitt would have the OOC over UCF but they may finish 9-3 or 8-4.

The other thing to consider is if Notre Dame finishes higher than all available Big Ten/SEC teams, the CFP committee (who decides who goes to the Orange Bowl) might want to put Pitt in there vs ND since UVa already played them. That said, if PSU is the Big Ten/SEC/ND rep, I dont know they'd want to set up a Pitt/PSU rematch.

Ok, did not know that about ND, that’s obviously a big deal since they are going 10-2 at worst with what they have left. TBH I don’t think either Pitt or Virginia are well rounded enough to run the table, I see them both slipping up at least once.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

TBH I don’t think either Pitt or Virginia are well rounded enough to run the table, I see them both slipping up at least once.

Me too.

 

[PittLegends]

smf are you a fan of the miami woman ?

 

[HailtoPitt]

I would have had Miami favored over us before this weekend but now I have us as 1-3 point favorite. Also, slight favorites over UNC and @ VT. GT looks a bit trickier now and BC with AJ Dillon, you never know. Its doubtful we win all 5 and break our 4 decade streak of 3 or more regular season losses but its right there in front of us.

Virginia is at Louisville, at UNC, and has VT at home, who they haven't beaten in forever, so chances are they lose another. If so, and we win out, I think we go to the Orange Bowl.

Pitt would have a better shot if UV wins out. I don't think a three loss Pitt would make the Orange Bowl.

 

[TIGER-PAUL]

The highest ranked team gets in.

 

[RaleighPittFan]

Pitt would have a better shot if UV wins out. I don't think a three loss Pitt would make the Orange Bowl.

A better shot at what?

 

[Dointhatrag]

As tiger Paul states it’s based on rankings who gets in, not a beauty competition

 

[wbrpanther]

Notre Dame can only steal an Orange Bowl bid over the SEC or Big Ten, not the ACC. They can steal all over bowl games over the ACC.

In my scenario, Pitt would be the 10-3 Coastal champ on a 9 game winning streak. UVa would be 9-3 with a head to head win in August over Pitt and would have a case but Pitt's 3 losses would be better (@ Penn State, Clemson, UVa). UVa would have losses to Miami and a 7-5 type of team if they lose another. Their wins would be similar. Pitt would have the OOC over UCF but they may finish 9-3 or 8-4.

The other thing to consider is if Notre Dame finishes higher than all available Big Ten/SEC teams, the CFP committee (who decides who goes to the Orange Bowl) might want to put Pitt in there vs ND since UVa already played them. That said, if PSU is the Big Ten/SEC/ND rep, I dont know they'd want to set up a Pitt/PSU rematch.

How is Pitt going to have a 9 game win streak if the lose in the ACC Championship game?

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

How is Pitt going to have a 9 game win streak if the lose in the ACC Championship game?

Before that I meant

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Pitt would have a better shot if UV wins out. I don't think a three loss Pitt would make the Orange Bowl.

If UVa wins out, they would be 10-3 with loss in the ACCCG. You think they take 10-2 Pitt would be ranked higher than 10-3 Coastal Champ UVa? I dont.

I think our best bet is to go 10-3, win the Coastal and have UVa at 9-3.

 

[HailToPitt1985]

This happens every year when we happen to win a couple of games in a row. Then we automatically revert to the level of our team and coaching and win what we're supposed to win....maybe 7 or 8 games tops. The 8 wins is a possibility this year because of the weakness of our remaining schedule. If we can't win 8 total, there's something wrong and someone needs to be accountable. Other than UVA and Clemson, there just isn't a quality team in the ACC. A lot of 6 to 8 win teams, but nothing that isn't beatable by a lot of teams. And Pitt is beatable by any team we play the rest of the year. That's being realistic.

But 10 wins this year????? That would be great but it's not going to happen.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

smf are you a fan of the miami woman ?

Who isn't a fan of Miami women!

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

(A) Our current Sagarin rating (rank) for all games is 75.18 (#45)

(B) Our Sagarin rating re-calculated beginning from the Penn State game and tossing out the Delaware game as irrelevant (due to Pickett and about 10 other players rested/held out) calculates roughly as follows-->-

@ Penn St Pitt played as if it had a current 88.57 rating.
vs UCF Pitt played as if it had a current 79.30 rating.
@ Duke Pitt played as if it had a current 79.21 rating.
@ Syracuse Pitt played as if it had a current 79.56 rating.

(1) The average rating for all 4 games is 81.66 (#23)
(2) The average for only the last 3 games is 79.36 (#28)

Bottom line is that we are now playing like a fringe top 25 team.

Here is what scenarios (A) and (B) approximately predict for the remainder of the regular season:

Opponent Scenario (A) Scenario (B)(1) Scenario (B)(2)

vs Miami +5.5 +12 + 9.5
@ GA Tech +9.5 +16 +14
vs UNC -1.5 + 5 + 3
@ VA Tech +3.5 +10 + 8
vs BC +9 +15.5 + 13

The UNC game (on paper) appears to pose the biggest risk for a loss.

 

[HailToPitt725]

(A) Our current Sagarin rating (rank) for all games is 75.18 (#45)

(B) Our Sagarin rating re-calculated beginning from the Penn State game and tossing out the Delaware game as irrelevant (due to Pickett and about 10 other players rested/held out) calculates roughly as follows-->-

@ Penn St Pitt played as if it had a current 88.57 rating.
vs UCF Pitt played as if it had a current 79.30 rating.
@ Duke Pitt played as if it had a current 79.21 rating.
@ Syracuse Pitt played as if it had a current 79.56 rating.

(1) The average rating for all 4 games is 81.66 (#23)
(2) The average for only the last 3 games is 79.36 (#28)

Bottom line is that we are now playing like a fringe top 25 team.

Here is what scenarios (A) and (B) approximately predict for the remainder of the regular season:

Opponent Scenario (A) Scenario (B)(1) Scenario (B)(2)

vs Miami +5.5 +12 + 9.5
@ GA Tech +9.5 +16 +14
vs UNC -1.5 + 5 + 3
@ VA Tech +3.5 +10 + 8
vs BC +9 +15.5 + 13

The UNC game (on paper) appears to pose the biggest risk for a loss.

I think we knew we had the biggest change at losing to UNC before the season even started

 

[HailtoPitt]

If UVa wins out, they would be 10-3 with loss in the ACCCG. You think they take 10-2 Pitt would be ranked higher than 10-3 Coastal Champ UVa? I dont.

I think our best bet is to go 10-3, win the Coastal and have UVa at 9-3.

Yes, I think 10-2 Pitt would be ranked higher than a 10-3 Virginia that just got thrashed in the ACC Championship Game.

 

[UPitt '89]

If Clemson goes to the playoff why wouldn’t Notre Dame or Virginia go to the Orange Bowl instead of Pitt?

Notre Dame would go to the Orange Bowl as Pitt's opponent.

ps. Despite what you hear on this website all the time, Pitt draws better for bowl games than UVa. And given the scenario SMF describes above, Pitt at 10-2 is probably ranked in the top 15... UVa at 9-3 would be in the 20-25 range.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Notre Dame would go to the Orange Bowl as Pitt's opponent.

ps. Despite what you hear on this website all the time, Pitt draws better for bowl games than UVa. And given the scenario SMF describes above, Pitt at 10-2 is probably ranked in the top 15... UVa at 9-3 would be in the 20-25 range.

Attendance had absolutely 0 to do with Orange Bowl selection. The highest ranked team in the CFP rankings go. If Pitt is 10-3 and UVa is 9-3, I think Pitt is ranked higher.