After and slightly during another week of ACC Football, here's some clarity on the road to Charlotte and the bowls.
In the Coastal, UVA is 5-2 after escaping GT and 7-3 overall. One of their remaining games is Liberty, who is a non conference and I'd feel comfortable projecting as a win. That means UVA will enter their final matchup against VT at 8-3 overall, 5-2 in conference, with wins over Pitt and Miami.
This means the winner of the Coastal must have 3 losses at most in division. This eliminates UNC (tiebreaker), Duke (tiebreaker), and VT.
The final four teams that can win are UVA, Pitt, Miami, and... VT.
VT is at 3-2 in conference and beat Wake Forest today. They have games left against a newly fiesty Georgia Tech, Pitt, and UVA.
So just as we all would've guessed a month ago (...) The Commonwealth Cup is possibly the Coastal Championship game. This assumes VT can beat GT and Pitt.
Miami must beat Duke in their finale (also have a nonconference game against FIU) and UVA must lose to VT. VT must lose to Pitt and GT. Pitt must lose to UNC or BC. This is theoretically possible, but only just.
For Pitt, this means there is no more margin of error. Pitt has to win out and UVA has to lose to VT.
--
In the Atlantic, if Clemson beats NCSU tonight (they're up currently), they are the Atlantic champion with Wake losing to Virginia Tech today. If Clemson loses, they just have to beat Wake Forest next game. Their other remaining game is against South Carolina.
The only other team that can win the division is Wake Forest, if they win out and Clemson loses against NCSU and Wake. This would be Clemson's fifth consecutive division title.
--
In the bowl picture, the following teams are eligible:
Clemson
Notre Dame*
UVA
Wake Forest
Miami
Pitt
On the bubble:
VT (6 wins but needs 7 to be eligible- two FCS wins)
FSU (5 wins with a game against Alabama State in the future)
Louisville
BC
UNC has 4 wins, but one game remaining is against FCS Mercer- a likely win.
--
FINALLY, here's the bowl picture. The * above denotes that Notre Dame takes an ACC bowl slot, provided it is not the Orange Bowl.
I figure on, counting ND, 11 bowl eligible ACC teams.
Before I go into this, Minnesota threw a major wrinkle into this today. If Minnesota qualifies for the Rose Bowl, Penn State would have an argument for an Orange Bowl bid depending on how the SEC finishes up, assuming Ohio State makes the playoff.
For now, project the playoff field at:
1. LSU
2. Ohio State
3. Alabama*
4. Clemson
*you know in your heart this is coming, and it will suck.
Rose Bowl: Minnesota vs. Oregon
Sugar Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Georgia
Orange Bowl: Virginia vs. Florida
Cotton Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Penn State
This leaves the rest of the ACC Bowls as:
Camping World Bowl: Notre Dame
Tier 1:
Music City: Louisville
Sun: Miami
Pinstripe: VT
Belk: Wake Forest
Tier 2:
Military: Pitt
Independence: UNC
Quick Lane: FSU
Extra:
Birmingham: BC
The assumptions here are that the Independence Bowl won't take FSU again for two trips in a row (2017), but it's okay for the Belk to take Wake, since it wasn't two trips in a row, Pinstripe won't take Miami again, and Music City doesn't get encouraged to take another team, having taken Louisville this contract already.
If it turns out these are bad assumptions, things will look different, but what the hell. I'm an amateur.
In the Coastal, UVA is 5-2 after escaping GT and 7-3 overall. One of their remaining games is Liberty, who is a non conference and I'd feel comfortable projecting as a win. That means UVA will enter their final matchup against VT at 8-3 overall, 5-2 in conference, with wins over Pitt and Miami.
This means the winner of the Coastal must have 3 losses at most in division. This eliminates UNC (tiebreaker), Duke (tiebreaker), and VT.
The final four teams that can win are UVA, Pitt, Miami, and... VT.
VT is at 3-2 in conference and beat Wake Forest today. They have games left against a newly fiesty Georgia Tech, Pitt, and UVA.
So just as we all would've guessed a month ago (...) The Commonwealth Cup is possibly the Coastal Championship game. This assumes VT can beat GT and Pitt.
Miami must beat Duke in their finale (also have a nonconference game against FIU) and UVA must lose to VT. VT must lose to Pitt and GT. Pitt must lose to UNC or BC. This is theoretically possible, but only just.
For Pitt, this means there is no more margin of error. Pitt has to win out and UVA has to lose to VT.
--
In the Atlantic, if Clemson beats NCSU tonight (they're up currently), they are the Atlantic champion with Wake losing to Virginia Tech today. If Clemson loses, they just have to beat Wake Forest next game. Their other remaining game is against South Carolina.
The only other team that can win the division is Wake Forest, if they win out and Clemson loses against NCSU and Wake. This would be Clemson's fifth consecutive division title.
--
In the bowl picture, the following teams are eligible:
Clemson
Notre Dame*
UVA
Wake Forest
Miami
Pitt
On the bubble:
VT (6 wins but needs 7 to be eligible- two FCS wins)
FSU (5 wins with a game against Alabama State in the future)
Louisville
BC
UNC has 4 wins, but one game remaining is against FCS Mercer- a likely win.
--
FINALLY, here's the bowl picture. The * above denotes that Notre Dame takes an ACC bowl slot, provided it is not the Orange Bowl.
I figure on, counting ND, 11 bowl eligible ACC teams.
Before I go into this, Minnesota threw a major wrinkle into this today. If Minnesota qualifies for the Rose Bowl, Penn State would have an argument for an Orange Bowl bid depending on how the SEC finishes up, assuming Ohio State makes the playoff.
For now, project the playoff field at:
1. LSU
2. Ohio State
3. Alabama*
4. Clemson
*you know in your heart this is coming, and it will suck.
Rose Bowl: Minnesota vs. Oregon
Sugar Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Georgia
Orange Bowl: Virginia vs. Florida
Cotton Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Penn State
This leaves the rest of the ACC Bowls as:
Camping World Bowl: Notre Dame
Tier 1:
Music City: Louisville
Sun: Miami
Pinstripe: VT
Belk: Wake Forest
Tier 2:
Military: Pitt
Independence: UNC
Quick Lane: FSU
Extra:
Birmingham: BC
The assumptions here are that the Independence Bowl won't take FSU again for two trips in a row (2017), but it's okay for the Belk to take Wake, since it wasn't two trips in a row, Pinstripe won't take Miami again, and Music City doesn't get encouraged to take another team, having taken Louisville this contract already.
If it turns out these are bad assumptions, things will look different, but what the hell. I'm an amateur.
