I told a buddy the last week when he asked me of my confidence before PSU. .. the last time I was genuinely confident in a Pitt victory, to the extent I brashly exclaimed it aloud, it was walking into the stadium for the 2008 Rutgers game. I proclaimed we would kick their asses. Walked out after a 54-34 debacle, and honestly never felt confident before a game since, not even Delaware a couple years back. So the Ysu loss of Chryst's era was gross and unacceptable, but not a surprise to me at all.
While I admit I still do expect we'll beat FCS or G5 (mostly), it's never confident. I'll typically answer, well, it's a game we possibly should win.
A win against most P5 teams now genuinely does surprise me, though. I have next to 0 confidence for all, but perhaps Syracuse or Va. Road game wins, absolutely surprising against ANYONE. Even when we went to Akron. It's awful to admit, but there it is.