Long shots: Pitt (4.0%), Virginia Tech (2.9%), Louisville (1.2%)
Like Indiana's, Pitt's SP+ ranking is lower than that of the other contenders despite its unbeaten record. The Panthers are up to 30th overall, but they've played four power conference opponents with a combined record of 14-14 and an average SP+ ranking of 49.3, and they beat those four teams by a combined 17 points. They have yet to play a top-40 opponent, and they've got three coming up in the next five games. It would be a spectacular story if they kept winning, but it's not incredibly likely.
Like Indiana's, Pitt's SP+ ranking is lower than that of the other contenders despite its unbeaten record. The Panthers are up to 30th overall, but they've played four power conference opponents with a combined record of 14-14 and an average SP+ ranking of 49.3, and they beat those four teams by a combined 17 points. They have yet to play a top-40 opponent, and they've got three coming up in the next five games. It would be a spectacular story if they kept winning, but it's not incredibly likely.