Breaking down number of wins possibilities

[raleighpanther]

I don't make predictions, but hearing other people throw around win totals, and seeing the over/under odds projections, made me take a look at the potential.

The games could be put into 3 categories: OOC , easier ACC games, and more challenging ACC games.

OOC (4 games): Pitt is rated as having one of the toughest OOC schedules. But one of the games is Albany, which should be the one sure win on the schedule. The other 3 are difficult, but I can see Pitt winning one, losing two. I think that is reasonable. That's 2-2, OOC.

Easier ACC (5 games): None of these teams (UVA, UNC, Duke, Wake, and SYR) had a winning ACC record last year; only Wake made it to .500. UNC won only one game, and will have several players suspended for the Pitt game. This is the year we finally beat those guys. Despite the tough OOC schedule, Pitt caught a break in the crossover games, not having to play Clemson, FSU, Louisville, or NC State.
All 5 are winnable, Pitt will probably win 3 or 4. Three will be a disappointment.

Challenging ACC (3 games): Challenging, but certainly winnable.
Miami is the best of the bunch, but we just beat them. The 2018 version of Pitt is better than when we played them last, and the supposed speed advantage of Miami wasn't there. It will be tough to beat them twice in a row, on the road, but its at least doable.
GT is GT. Difficult to defend, but we get them at home. We'll probably be a slight favorite, assuming we at least look to be pretty good the week before.
VT has an entire new defense. They're still projected to finish at/near the top of the division, but this team is probably a year away.
Winning two of these is certainly doable.

So, going with 2-2 OOC, and either 3-2 or 4-1 in the easier ACC games, and either 1-2 or 2-1 in tougher ones, means 6-8 wins.

 

[Gunga_Galunga]

Pretty much agree with this. I postulate a 7-5 or 8-4 type year with a 5-3 ACC record.

 

[RaleighPittFan]

12-0 regular season. There's not a team on the schedule that Pitt shouldn't beat.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

12-0 regular season. There's not a team on the schedule that Pitt shouldn't beat.

You must be drinking the same thing I am. This team just has a very different very confidant feel to me. I believe 9 regular season wins is the floor this year.

 

[raleighpanther]

To be honest, I'm sipping a bit of the Kool-aid too, but if we have a big year, it will be exceeding expectations.

 

[sherepower]

I think 9-3. We beat Penn st, Central Florida, lose to ND, Miami and a yearly Pitt WTF game. I’ll say Wake Forest upsets us.

 

[HailToPitt725]

I think 9-3. We beat Penn st, Central Florida, lose to ND, Miami and a yearly Pitt WTF game. I’ll say Wake Forest upsets us.

Losing to Wake wouldn’t be that embarrassing this year. I think they’ll be good, challenging for the top spot in the Atlantic after Clemson and FSU.

 

[HailToPitt725]

With that being said, here’s how I see it:

- Wins against Albany, Syracuse, Duke, and Virginia (4)
- Lose one out of Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, and Wake Forest (7)
- Either win one or split UCF, Penn State, Notre Dame, and Miami (8/9)

I think 7-5 is the floor for this team. No reason why we can’t go 8-4 or 9-3. Again, I think we’re going to surprise a lot of people.

 

[Pittstudent313]

5-7, possibly 6-6 at best. Next year is the year we see a break out.

 

[HailToPitt725]

5-7, possibly 6-6 at best. Next year is the year we see a break out.

While we may disagree with this year, I agree with 2019. A good portion of this year’s team will be back and the schedule is lighter. That will be “the year” for this group.

Just very excited for Pitt Football and Pitt Athletics. Great time to be a Panther.

 

[Parkview57]

With this schedule, if this team finishes at 8-5 it should come very close to landing at number 25 in the polls, 9 wins and it should finish solidly in the top 25 , IMHO.

 

[Pizzaboy1]

12-0 regular season. There's not a team on the schedule that Pitt shouldn't beat.

And you were once the smartest person in Morgantown?

 

[cashisking884]

Every single one of the teams from the "easier" category are also marking us as the winnable game.
Most of those games are 50-50 coin flip games or are really close to being 50-50. If we take 3 out of 5 in 50-50 games, that's damn good. It's okay to want to win more, but to call it a "disappointment" is setting a very high bar.

 

[BFo8]

Even though I put my money where my mouth is and bet Pitt over 5 wins at -125 at the Southpoint, my hopes are not nearly as high as most of you.

I think the upgrade at the QB position and an improving defense, coupled with the fact they should be in multiple tossup games make at least 5 a solid proposition. For Pitt to only win 4 games this year the season would pretty much have to be close to a disaster and I don’t see that happening.

Maybe I’m being a tad too optimistic but this smells like a 7-5 team this year to me.

 

[Pantherguy4]

I think 9 and 3 or possibly 10 and 2!

 

[sunshinedynomite]

12-0 regular season. There's not a team on the schedule that Pitt shouldn't beat.

Fully agree!!

 

[Panthertag]

9-3 if they stay focused. Bowl season is a different story, however.

 

[Pizzaboy1]

Even though I put my money where my mouth is and bet Pitt over 5 wins at -125 at the Southpoint, my hopes are not nearly as high as most of you.

I think the upgrade at the QB position and an improving defense, coupled with the fact they should be in multiple tossup games make at least 5 a solid proposition. For Pitt to only win 4 games this year the season would pretty much have to be close to a disaster and I don’t see that happening.

Maybe I’m being a tad too optimistic but this smells like a 7-5 team this year to me.

08 I'll be at South Point Sept 22 -27.I'm going out to play softball but I'll also be leaving some money in the sport's betting parlor.Maybe Brent Musberger will give me some good tips.Vegas will be sending a big check to Pittsburgh covering all these over bets you Pitt fans are wagering.I hope you guys don't make those casinos into nursing homes!

 

[Mikefln]

This is how I honestly see it:

Albany- Win: there is no excuse here 1-0

Penn St- Toss up game: rivalry game at home they got worse we got better 1-0 w/ 1 toss up games

Georgia Tech- Win: we should be able to wear them down 2-0 with 1 toss up game

North Carolina- Win: They were not good last year and with the suspensions we should have enough to be them finally 3-0 with 1 toss up game

UCF- Toss up: I am not buying that they are that great, plus I think there is a drop off from them last year with Frost gone but can't say for sure yet. 3-0 with 2 toss up games

Syracuse- Win: there is no excuse here 4-0 with 2 toss up games

Notre Dame- Loss: we traditionally play them tough but I don't see it 4-1 with 2 toss up games

Duke- Win: at home game coming off a bye week 5-1 with 2 toss up games

Virginia- Win: team will be running full stride with a lot of momentum 6-1 with 2 toss up games

Virigina Tech- Toss up game: Was a close game last year as it usually is even when on paper they should be head and shoulders better. 6-1 with 3 Toss Up Games

Wake Forest- Win: WF is not bad but Pitt is better 7-1 with 3 toss up games

Miami- Loss: They get their revenge in their home game 7-2 with 3 toss up games

So basically I have a good feeling for this season. I really do. I think the D improves that they are actually a strength. Pickette should provide better QB play than what we got last year. I also think the WR/ O-line is not as bad as some make it out to be. I think they will be solid groups.

With that said I am saying 7-2 with 3 toss up games. Out of those 3 Toss up games I think Pitt wins 1 of them for an 8-5 season. Though I would not be surprised if it is a 10-2 season. Either way it should be a fun season to watch it play out.

 

[recruitsreadtheseboards]

6-3 Stamp it!

 

[DiehardPanther]

Fully agree!!

You are a PS fan and demean Pitt on the BWI board. Why do you post here since we are just another game like Akron? Do you post on the Akron message board as well?

 

[SoufOaklin4Life]

You are a PS fan and demean Pitt on the BWI board. Why do you post here since we are just another game like Akron? Do you post on the Akron message board as well?

It’s called trolling.

 

[Pitt79]

12-0 regular season. There's not a team on the schedule that Pitt shouldn't beat.

Even if that's true, there are always 3-4 games that end up like last year's VT game, or UNC game, or the bowl game where we lead by 3 TDs with 4 minutes left or losing to YSU. Pitt ALWAYS has those head scratching, snatch defeat from the mouth of victory games! LOL! I don't even get upset anymore, I just laugh.

 

[revampedpanthers]

With this schedule, if this team finishes at 8-5 it should come very close to landing at number 25 in the polls, 9 wins and it should finish solidly in the top 25 , IMHO.

Agree basically this years team is at a -1 for win total compared to most teams and even most pitt schedules. So if its a 8 win team talent wise(which is about where I would put them) then they will likely go 7-5. I think anything more than 7 wins is really doing well. ND, PSU, Central FL, VT and Miami are all likely to be ranked teams at the end of the year and there could be a surprise team that makes it as well(GT and NC would be two I would put in that category)

 

[revampedpanthers]

You must be drinking the same thing I am. This team just has a very different very confidant feel to me. I believe 9 regular season wins is the floor this year.

I would bet that you will be disappointed. The schedule is just to tough OOC to say 9 wins is the floor. 9-3 would mean at least splitting the OOC, meaning going 1-2 vs psu,nd and ucf(all three will be ranked in the top 20 to start the season) which is definitely possible maybe even likely but that 2-2 OOC means they would have to be 7-1 in the ACC. While possibly I think its highly unlikely this team is going to do that. The OL is a question mark as is the WR(and really QB honestly) I do think the D will be much better but to be 9-3 vs this schedule probably requires the D go from a 70's or 80's ranking to top 20, my guess is they are closer to 30's or 40's.

 

[revampedpanthers]

Even if that's true, there are always 3-4 games that end up like last year's VT game, or UNC game, or the bowl game where we lead by 3 TDs with 4 minutes left or losing to YSU. Pitt ALWAYS has those head scratching, snatch defeat from the mouth of victory games! LOL! I don't even get upset anymore, I just laugh.

True but they have also had a game or two each season, at least under PN, where they pull off a huge upset like clemson or Miami. Thats why I see 7-5 or 8-4 to many are basically saying they are going to win every game they are favored in and another 1 or 2 where they are the under dog.

 

[millrrr]

defense has depth and is as talented as Narduzzi has had at pitt. the "D" will keep us in games until the offense catches up. pickett has swagger (luv it) and will rally the troops!..8 wins or better can happen

 

[pittdan77]

Seven wins feels like an accomplishment and Vegas is saying 5.5. I’ll say six wins with the usual one epic failure and one unexpected upset.

 

[revampedpanthers]

defense has depth and is as talented as Narduzzi has had at pitt. the "D" will keep us in games until the offense catches up. pickett has swagger (luv it) and will rally the troops!..8 wins or better can happen

agree it can happen, but that doesn't mean its likely to happen. I could see anything from 5-7 to 10-2 as having a decent probability(%5) of happening anything less or more is extremely unlikely. Here is how I would put the odds. I am no expert especially on what teams like SU or wake have coming back.
0-4 wins %2 chance
5 wins %5
6 wins %16
7 wins %30
8 wins %25
9 wins %15
10 wins %5
11 or 12 %2
So my predicition would be 7-5 or 8-4

 

[cashisking884]

agree it can happen, but that doesn't mean its likely to happen. I could see anything from 5-7 to 10-2 as having a decent probability(%5) of happening anything less or more is extremely unlikely. Here is how I would put the odds. I am no expert especially on what teams like SU or wake have coming back.
0-4 wins %2 chance
5 wins %5
6 wins %16
7 wins %30
8 wins %25
9 wins %15
10 wins %5
11 or 12 %2
So my predicition would be 7-5 or 8-4

Here's a pretty good win probability chart that one guy does based on the S&P+ numbers.

 

[MarshallGoldberg]

Yep. Obviously lines adjust to events on the ground but we'll projecting to be favorites in 5 or 6 games, underdogs in 6 or 7. I love the kool aid some of you are drinking and hope you're right though. If the early more consensus picks are right from non-Pitt fans, then 2019-20 is going to be a big year for Narduzzi.

 

[jaygeekray]

5-7, possibly 6-6 at best. Next year is the year we see a break out.

What he said...

hoping for 8-4, but expecting 6-6

AND 9 or 10 wins in 2019

 

[Pittstudent313]

It's fun to look at these post as the year goes by, same people having us win 10 or more games every year since I was born, and guess how many times we won 10 or more games ?