Bubbling 2/22 update

[whirlybird optio]

A very mediocre team like Utah, Texas A&M, Miss St, Colorado, Villanova, Butler, or Iowa, (I could keep going, but I hope you get the point by now) going 3-2, 2-3, or even 1-4 down the stretch isn't a "collapse", it's the expected outcome for most of them.

Let's take the 3 SEC bubble teams in front of us: A&M is expected to go 2-3, MSU is projected to go 3-2, and Ole Miss is projected to go 3-2. They have opportunities for some quality wins, but also all play each other still. A&M's 2 projected wins are a toss up vs. MSU and a game vs. USC-east.

Oh, and that USC-east team is projected to go 0-5 for the rest of their regular season, which will absolutely put them on the bubble and weaken the resume of the other teams who beat them.

Now let's look at the Pac-12: Utah is projected to go 3-2, Colorado is expected to go 3-2, and Oregon is expected to go 4-1, all against weak competition generally. They have minimal room for improvement and plenty of opportunities to stumble, as each of them aren't favored by much in games they almost certainly have to win.

Now let's consider that Lunardi sucks at this, so the fact that he has numerous teams with what seem to be objectively worse profiles in front of us makes our situation look more dire than it probably is in reality.

We're projected to go 3-2 ourselves, so the idea is that we're exceeding expectations while about half of the 15 - 20 Lunardi has between us and the teams that are comfortably in meet their expectations or do worse than that (again, keeping in mind a number of these teams probably are already behind us because Lunardi sucks at this).

Any of the teams I listed could absolutely go 2-3, 1-4, or 0-5 in their last 5 games, and if several of them do that while we're going 4-1, we'd be in good shape. It's not going to take some miracle for mediocre teams to continue to be mediocre or slightly worse, which is all we need based on the existing projections from competent forecasters (e.g. not Lunardi).

Again, I just don’t agree. I think if those SEC teams go 2-3, that’s plenty good enough to keep them ahead of us if we go 4-1. That’s only a 2 game flip in record from us to them, and I think we are more behind than a 2 game flip. Just my opinion..but still.

And Pitt having absolutely zero to point at in the non-conference, if we are close, could be a deciding factor against almost any other bubble team. Our max Q1 wins are 5. And that’s if Wake stays Q1 and somehow NCSt goes back to Q1, and we get the Clemson win. That’s…fine? Probably about average for the bubble teams.

 

[AllegeneeGenacGenac]

Again, I just don’t agree. I think if those SEC teams go 2-3, that’s plenty good enough to keep them ahead of us if we go 4-1. That’s only a 2 game flip in record from us to them, and I think we are more behind than a 2 game flip. Just my opinion..but still.

And Pitt having absolutely zero to point at in the non-conference, if we are close, could be a deciding factor against almost any other bubble team. Our max Q1 wins are 5. And that’s if Wake stays Q1 and somehow NCSt goes back to Q1, and we get the Clemson win. That’s…fine? Probably about average for the bubble teams.

I mean you are entitled to your opinion, but that opinion is not rooted in reality.

Look at this (sorry for the terrible link): https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php...am=&x4_res=&x5_type=&x5_loc=&x5_team=&x5_res=

Assuming everyone else plays as projected, this link shows that we've gone 4-1 and have a 42.5% chance of getting in per Torvik (a competent forecaster). If you use the DynamaRank feature as he suggests, we're at 52.2%.

Nearly all of the SEC and P12 teams I called out previously are behind us in this scenario, where they've just played as expected and finished between 4-1 and 2-3 depending on the team.

What happens if some of the 4 BE teams not far in front of us, some of which I would say are already in worse shape than us, play a little worse than expected? If Indiana State is looking for an at-large, it means they didn't win their tournament and have another loss, which isn't accounted for here.

And you think the average bubble team has 5 Q1 wins? I mean, just go look at the data.

Again, I'm not saying that Pitt is a lock if they go 4-1, or even that they will go 4-1. But there are many, many scenarios where they go 4-1 and are projected in the field.

For whatever reason, it seems like you'd rather tell yourself the average bubble team has 5 Q1 wins than acknowledge it won't take a miracle for Pitt to get in the tournament, which I just don't get.

Anyway, I'll stop nagging you about this. Go Pitt.

 

[whirlybird optio]

I mean you are entitled to your opinion, but that opinion is not rooted in reality.

Look at this (sorry for the terrible link): https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php...am=&x4_res=&x5_type=&x5_loc=&x5_team=&x5_res=

Assuming everyone else plays as projected, this link shows that we've gone 4-1 and have a 42.5% chance of getting in per Torvik (a competent forecaster).

Nearly all of the SEC and P12 teams I called out previously are behind us in this scenario, where they've just played as expected and finished between 4-1 and 2-3 depending on the team.

What happens if some of the 4 BE teams not far in front of us, some of which I would say are already in worse shape than us, play a little worse than expected? If Indiana State is looking for an at-large, it means they didn't win their tournament and have another loss, which isn't accounted for here.

And you think the average bubble team has 5 Q1 wins? I mean, just go look at the data.

Again, I'm not saying that Pitt is a lock if they go 4-1, or even that they will go 4-1. But there are many, many scenarios where they go 4-1 and are projected in the field.

And for whatever reason, it seems like you'd rather tell yourself the average bubble team has 5 Q1 wins than acknowledge it won't take a miracle for Pitt to get in the tournament.

Anyway, I'll stop nagging you about this. Go Pitt.

I guess, perhaps making my point, even using that as a reference point, sort of gaming which road loss we are going to take, with all of that, we are less than 50%.

“Good shape” I would think - is 50%+ entering ACC tournament.

But, all of this fun, and you might think I’m an idiot and that Pantherlair bracketology, perhaps not suprisingly lol, seems very bullish on Pitt - but they have to win the next 2. And they haven’t beaten Clemson on the road in a decade. So we will see.

How about this - go 5-0. Then I think we will both feel pretty good.

 

[AllegeneeGenacGenac]

How about this - go 5-0. Then I think we will both feel pretty good.

Amen to that!

 

[Jcbrush34]

Today is shaping up to be a good day on the bubble, Pitt could move up a good bit with a win.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Today is shaping up to be a good day on the bubble, Pitt could move up a good bit with a win.

Of the teams that I threw out earlier in this thread, six of them play today. Two either won or are winning at the moment (damn you Wake Forest!). Four of them have lost or are losing.

Which isn't really outside of what the expectations should have been. Bubble teams will lose. Absolutely guaranteed, they will lose. We need to not lose, and we will be OK.

Easier said than done.