Cincinnati-Towson vs Pitt-Kent State

[DC_Area_Panther]

Yes; I do know:

(1) These were the first games of the season.
(2) Hard to evaluate whether comparisons of what teams did vs should have done vs opponents has any meaning.

Nevertheless, per Sagarin's computer--

(A) Pitt should have beaten Kent by 27.69 and won by 31.00
(B) Cincinnati should have beaten Towson by 31.71 and won by 18.00.
(C) Towson had a lower rating than Kent by about 1.5 points

Per Box Scores--

(C) Cincinnati gave up ~440 yds of offense to Towson vs Pitt giving up only ~220 yds to Kent
(D) Cincinnati generated ~650 yds of offense vs Towson vs Pitt's generating ~550 yds vs Kent.

All of this MIGHT "suggest" Pitt is better than Cincinnati and should win next week's game?

 

[pittbb80]

that’s a logical argument but historically Pitt football has not always been logical 😎

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Yes; I do know:

(1) These were the first games of the season.
(2) Hard to evaluate whether comparisons of what teams did vs should have done vs opponents has any meaning.

Nevertheless, per Sagarin's computer--

(A) Pitt should have beaten Kent by 27.69 and won by 31.00
(B) Cincinnati should have beaten Towson by 31.71 and won by 18.00.
(C) Towson had a lower rating than Kent by about 1.5 points

Per Box Scores--

(C) Cincinnati gave up ~440 yds of offense to Towson vs Pitt giving up only ~220 yds to Kent
(D) Cincinnati generated ~650 yds of offense vs Towson vs Pitt's generating ~550 yds vs Kent.

All of this MIGHT "suggest" Pitt is better than Cincinnati and should win next week's game?

I wanted to watch Cincy/Towson but couldn't since B12 games arent televised. Pay per view only.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

ESPN Analytics has Pitt favored over Cincy at 57.1% vs 42.9% chance to win.

NOTE: Sagarin has not yet updated his ratings--waiting on tonight's USC vs LSU game, I presume.

There are also a couple of FCS/DivI/DivII games to be played today.

FWIW--USA Today no longer has Sagarin's ratings. He is still doing his college football ratings on his web site; but, stopped doing college basketball ratings before last basketball season.

 

[Pitt666]

Yes; I do know:

(1) These were the first games of the season.
(2) Hard to evaluate whether comparisons of what teams did vs should have done vs opponents has any meaning.

Nevertheless, per Sagarin's computer--

(A) Pitt should have beaten Kent by 27.69 and won by 31.00
(B) Cincinnati should have beaten Towson by 31.71 and won by 18.00.
(C) Towson had a lower rating than Kent by about 1.5 points

Per Box Scores--

(C) Cincinnati gave up ~440 yds of offense to Towson vs Pitt giving up only ~220 yds to Kent
(D) Cincinnati generated ~650 yds of offense vs Towson vs Pitt's generating ~550 yds vs Kent.

All of this MIGHT "suggest" Pitt is better than Cincinnati and should win next week's game?

That’s a lot of yards for Cinci but not a lot of points. I’m taking Pitt. FpI moved Pitt up 9 this morning with a 1/25 chance of making the playoff. Cinci dropped 5 spots.

 

[cashisking884]

Kent State is probably 1 of 5 teams you could argue are the worst FBS teams and would probably be mid-FCS teams.

Cincinnati is probably one of 5 teams you could argue is the worst P4 team.

Have to bank this win to give some margin for error the rest of the season.

 

[OKJones]

The spread opened at Pitt +3.5 and now sits at +1.5. Money is going on Pitt

 

[Usuallyunusual-partdeux]

We are going to be at the💩 out of Cincinnati.....No inside info just a strong hunch.

 

[buckage]

Cincy fumbled 5x. They really shot themselves in the foot.

I think it's a close game. May come down to the last possession.

 

[nycpanther98]

The spread opened at Pitt +3.5 and now sits at +1.5. Money is going on Pitt

Think it opened Pitt +2.5, moved to +3.5, and now it's +1. Close game according to the markets for sure.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

H

That’s a lot of yards for Cinci but not a lot of points. I’m taking Pitt. FpI moved Pitt up 9 this morning with a 1/25 chance of making the playoff. Cinci dropped 5 spots.

Cincy was a turnover machine. Fumbled 5 times losing 3 and only recovered 1. One went out of bounds, I imagine, to account for the 5th. Also, Cincy defense allowed Towson--a team as weak or weaker than Kent-- 244 yds in the air and 194 on the ground.

 

[pittbb80]

H

Cincy was a turnover machine. Fumbled 5 times losing 3 and only recovered 1. One went out of bounds, I imagine, to account for the 5th. Also, Cincy defense allowed Towson--a team as weak or weaker than Kent-- 244 yds in the air and 194 on the ground.

Yeah you would think Pitt’s offense will have a field day with cincis defense.

 

[Slick Manager of Champs]

Cincy fumbled 5x. They really shot themselves in the foot.

I think it's a close game. May come down to the last possession.

We can't out talent Cinci anymore; so to be cliche, it will come down to traditional things like whoever makes fewer turnovers, takes advantage of opportunities when presented.

 

[upj87]

Yes; I do know:

(1) These were the first games of the season.
(2) Hard to evaluate whether comparisons of what teams did vs should have done vs opponents has any meaning.

Nevertheless, per Sagarin's computer--

(A) Pitt should have beaten Kent by 27.69 and won by 31.00
(B) Cincinnati should have beaten Towson by 31.71 and won by 18.00.
(C) Towson had a lower rating than Kent by about 1.5 points

Per Box Scores--

(C) Cincinnati gave up ~440 yds of offense to Towson vs Pitt giving up only ~220 yds to Kent
(D) Cincinnati generated ~650 yds of offense vs Towson vs Pitt's generating ~550 yds vs Kent.

All of this MIGHT "suggest" Pitt is better than Cincinnati and should win next week's game?

"Too Much Time on My Hands" was one of my favorite Styx songs..

 

[Slick Manager of Champs]

"Too Much Time on My Hands" was one of my favorite Styx songs..

so you are in camp Tommy Shaw rather than Dennis DeYoung?

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

so you are in camp Tommy Shaw rather than Dennis DeYoung?

Maybe he just had a lot of free time, so he related to the song?

 

[Slick Manager of Champs]

Maybe he just had a lot of free time, so he related to the song?

FWIW, it is Dennis DeYoung all the way.

 

[Dointhatrag]

take the over?

 

[ButtPilgrim]

So my computer is not great. I know this because I had VT going undefeated in the ACC, and they just lost to Vanderbilt (*should* have won 37-18). However. I did have Kent State as worse than a "replacement level" FCS team. The expected score was Pitt 41, Kent 20. So if you trust my computer, and you shouldn't, Pitt performed significantly better on defense than expected and better on offense by about a touchdown more than last year's team should have, which is actually pretty much in line with what most computers show

Oh- feels relevant- it's got Cincy 31, Pitt 28. Cincy with a 57% chance to win and Pitt with a 43%.

 

[ButtPilgrim]

So my computer is not great. I know this because I had VT going undefeated in the ACC, and they just lost to Vanderbilt (*should* have won 37-18). However. I did have Kent State as worse than a "replacement level" FCS team. The expected score was Pitt 41, Kent 20. So if you trust my computer, and you shouldn't, Pitt performed significantly better on defense than expected and better on offense by about a touchdown more than last year's team should have, which is actually pretty much in line with what most computers show

Oh- feels relevant- it's got Cincy 31, Pitt 28. Cincy with a 57% chance to win and Pitt with a 43%.

That wasn't a bad prediction at all! Nailed Pitt's O and off by 4 on the Bearcats.