Could ESPN Save the ACC

[taylorpitt1]

It is unbelievable to me that ESPN would be willing to take what is left of the PAC and merge it with our league to increase the payouts to 26 schools collectively.

I think ESPN will pick apart what is left out West that increases payouts per school along with possibly some Big 12 schools.

The best and worst thing Swoffford did was correctly recognize that giving network control to either ESPN or Fox was the future. I don’t think fox was interested but ESPN always has been back to the days of the big east.

I could see Oregon Washington Stanford and Utah and stay at 20 or add WVU and Cincinnati : or Colorado, Cal ….to go toward 22, maybe 24? For every team added,
it becomes exponentially cheaper to drop programs that don’t add to overall pie increase for each team. There is a mathematical reason why both the SEC AND BIG stopped at 16.

Even if ESPN were to add a single dollar - it costs them more. But, they have invested hundreds of millions of dollars and decades getting the ACC Network up and running across distribution ( the most important thing that killed the PAC).

Plus they have strong projections for the long term increase in advertising plus cable/ streaming subscriptions.
I believe they know exactly how much to pay and which teams to bring……and when. They have always been behind ACC expansion in the past with AD’s saying “the networks told us to add Syracuse and Pitt.” Maybe ESPN wants the third most profitable league to stay viable. ….just maybe,

The ACC stopped playoff expansion because, along with their relationship with ESPN, are the two cards they still hold. With their GOR, they can demand an automatic bid plus limit it to say 8 teams and top rated conference champs of 4 leagues get the home playoff game…..off course they can and that’s what they want- on record.
Getting an automatic playoff bid plus the bump in revenue from playoff expansion (along with league expansion and/or TV rights renegotiation) would guarantee their survival in 2034 when ND will have to join a conference and they will could loose some members from the ACC unless ND joins. ND AD is on record for saying that is when ND will have to decide——playoff negotiations could change that —-if ND can keep the ACC deal in place- plus get more for themselves and from ESPN with their NBC deal in 2024……then ND may well stay
ACC and that will be the leagues best chance at prosperity.

 

[Dan1911]

Could they? Yes.

Will they? No.

 

[cruzer]

It is unbelievable to me that ESPN would be willing to take what is left of the PAC and merge it with our league to increase the payouts to 26 schools collectively.

I think ESPN will pick apart what is left out West that increases payouts per school along with possibly some Big 12 schools.

The best and worst thing Swoffford did was correctly recognize that giving network control to either ESPN or Fox was the future. I don’t think fox was interested but ESPN always has been back to the days of the big east.

I could see Oregon Washington Stanford and Utah and stay at 20 or add WVU and Cincinnati : or Colorado, Cal ….to go toward 22, maybe 24? For every team added,
it becomes exponentially cheaper to drop programs that don’t add to overall pie increase for each team. There is a mathematical reason why both the SEC AND BIG stopped at 16.

Even if ESPN were to add a single dollar - it costs them more. But, they have invested hundreds of millions of dollars and decades getting the ACC Network up and running across distribution ( the most important thing that killed the PAC).

Plus they have strong projections for the long term increase in advertising plus cable/ streaming subscriptions.
I believe they know exactly how much to pay and which teams to bring……and when. They have always been behind ACC expansion in the past with AD’s saying “the networks told us to add Syracuse and Pitt.” Maybe ESPN wants the third most profitable league to stay viable. ….just maybe,

The ACC stopped playoff expansion because, along with their relationship with ESPN, are the two cards they still hold. With their GOR, they can demand an automatic bid plus limit it to say 8 teams and top rated conference champs of 4 leagues get the home playoff game…..off course they can and that’s what they want- on record.
Getting an automatic playoff bid plus the bump in revenue from playoff expansion (along with league expansion and/or TV rights renegotiation) would guarantee their survival in 2034 when ND will have to join a conference and they will could loose some members from the ACC unless ND joins. ND AD is on record for saying that is when ND will have to decide——playoff negotiations could change that —-if ND can keep the ACC deal in place- plus get more for themselves and from ESPN with their NBC deal in 2024……then ND may well stay
ACC and that will be the leagues best chance at prosperity.

I'll start by saying that I have zero idea if ESPN will ride to the rescue of the ACC. What's worth thinking about is this....ESPN is likely to be very sensitive to what drives profit (not just viewers, rankings, etc). How does ESPN make the most profit out of college football? That's the key question IMO. Keep in mind that ESPN is part of DIsney and Disney has been getting their ass kicked lately financially. Their stock was at $107 in 2017 and now it's at $95 nearly 5 years later. Not exactly an outstanding performance. So if the parent company is under the financial microscope, you can bet that the operating divisions are under a microscope too. Revenue has been pretty stagnant, so if you're not growing the top line you damn well better be watching the bottom line. This financial pressure should drive a lot of the decision making at ESPN. I don't pretend to know how that will ultimately manifest itself in terms of college football strategy, but profitability is likely going to be their biggest motivation.

Cruzer

 

[TIGER-PAUL]

Maybe

'Optimistic' Kevin Guskiewicz Talks UNC and Conference Realignment - Chapelboro.com

ACC charter members like UNC, Clemson or Virginia bolting for greener pastures would almost surely signal the end of the historic league.

chapelboro.com

 

[303vND]

Didn't know the ACC needed to be saved.

 

[9nationalchampionships]

Lots of talk about the ESPN contract with the ACC and how it is not great for the ACC. Well if that is true then the reverse is true ..... the contract is good for ESPN.

 

[joeydavid]

Didn't know the ACC needed to be saved.

Seriously... if the baseline is being 3rd in revenue so be it- its still big money to run a program.

 

[pittdan77]

Seriously... if the baseline is being 3rd in revenue so be it- its still big money to run a program.

View embedded media

The only flaw I see is the assumption was that the Big12 is going to remain at about the same level after UT and OU bail. I find it difficult to believe that you're not going to see a drop on a per team basis. I think the Tier3 revenue is part of that and those numbers never get the same explanation, twice.

 

[cruzer]

Seriously... if the baseline is being 3rd in revenue so be it- its still big money to run a program.

View embedded media

I'd love to see the other side of the equation....how much are the networks making on each conference deal?

Cruzer

 

[Zeldas Open Roof]

big 12 loses their two biggest programs and they are still ahead of the ACC in tv deal payouts?

 

[PITT 76]

ESPN will only save the ACC to the extent that it benefits them. That doesn't mean they won't help at all: they will do a cost/benefits analysis.

Certainly, logical thinking would indicate that the more power teams that survive, the better for television.

As college teams become disenfranchised, so will their fans. The vast majority of college fans are in it because they have a team involved. It is their enfranchisement that causes them to watch college football on TV.

For example, if West Virginia were to be eliminated from major college football, I doubt that most of their fans would continue to be interested in college ball. The vast majority would probably just shift to pro football, such as the Steelers. They're unlikely to adopt another college team to follow.

It would be that way with most, if not all, college fanbases. Hopefully, this insight will dawn on the powers that be. Once a species becomes extinct, it just doesn't come back.

 

[Dointhatrag]

ESPN does not want to lose premier ACC teams (plus multiple contractual ND games) to the Big 10 (Fox or whichever network wins the rights in the next year). They will do everything to keep the ACC together. Even moving 3 or 4 teams from the ACC to SEC hurts ESPN because it will likely degrade their current ACC content without adding enough to SEC content to offset.

 

[joeydavid]

The only flaw I see is the assumption was that the Big12 is going to remain at about the same level after UT and OU bail. I find it difficult to believe that you're not going to see a drop on a per team basis. I think the Tier3 revenue is part of that and those numbers never get the same explanation, twice.

It's assuming the tv new deal will pick the difference.

 

[pittdan77]

It's assuming the tv new deal will pick the difference.

I figured but that seems like a sketchy assumption when hear about "value" every single day.

 

[Zeldas Open Roof]

Is ACC football really that big of a priority for ESPN? On the grand scheme of all their content, how high is ACC football?

 

[pittdan77]

Is ACC football really that big of a priority for ESPN? On the grand scheme of all their content, how high is ACC football?

Not as much as the SEC but a lot more than the Pac12.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

The only flaw I see is the assumption was that the Big12 is going to remain at about the same level after UT and OU bail. I find it difficult to believe that you're not going to see a drop on a per team basis. I think the Tier3 revenue is part of that and those numbers never get the same explanation, twice.

Well, I wouldn't be surprised if a 12 team Big 12 without OU and Texas got more than a 10 team Big 12 but the per team may be less. Inflation + TV rights deals have skyrocketed. Its why I say the ACC gets $60-$75 million per team if they were on the open market today. Heck, Tepper's Charlotte soccer team is going to get almost $9 million per year for TV and nobody watches MLS.

 

[303vND]

Is ACC football really that big of a priority for ESPN? On the grand scheme of all their content, how high is ACC football?

Yeah...because they need content! I guess you are too young to remember the days of Australian Rules Football.

 

[cruzer]

Yeah...because they need content! I guess you are too young to remember the days of Australian Rules Football.

Agree, they do need content. That said, I suspect they will be much more frugal when it comes to paying for that content (Netflix is a good example of a company that focused almost exclusively on generating content and forgot that content at any price results in a bad bottom line).

 

[NickPanthers]

big 12 loses their two biggest programs and they are still ahead of the ACC in tv deal payouts?

It’s important to note that the Big XII was allowed to keep their same total annual income per year after losing Nebraska, Colorado, Texas A&M, and Missouri; then adding West Virginia & TCU. Which meant spreading that money 10 ways instead of 12. It was primarily ESPN preventing Texas & Oklahoma from going to the Pac-10 & Fox.

This really makes sense with the recent move of putting Texas & Oklahoma into the SEC where ESPN has exclusive rights starting in 2024 or 2025, before the Big XII contract was up. The B1G & Fox, then made a similar move with USC & UCLA from the Pac-12 (before their contract expired).

Both conferences $$$ will be significantly diminished (even after post pandemic inflation numbers).

The key is that the ACC is underpaid and they must either expand or have a contractual merger (most likely a Pac-10 that raids the Big XII), which will bring their contract up to a more realistic post pandemic market value (reflective of higher dollar figures to keep with inflation).

 

[NickPanthers]

ESPN will only save the ACC to the extent that it benefits them. That doesn't mean they won't help at all: they will do a cost/benefits analysis.

Certainly, logical thinking would indicate that the more power teams that survive, the better for television.

As college teams become disenfranchised, so will their fans. The vast majority of college fans are in it because they have a team involved. It is their enfranchisement that causes them to watch college football on TV.

For example, if West Virginia were to be eliminated from major college football, I doubt that most of their fans would continue to be interested in college ball. The vast majority would probably just shift to pro football, such as the Steelers. They're unlikely to adopt another college team to follow.

It would be that way with most, if not all, college fanbases. Hopefully, this insight will dawn on the powers that be. Once a species becomes extinct, it just doesn't come back.

You nailed it. They have to be careful with what they’re doing.

 

[rmf05]

Meh. USC and UCLA are just going to be another version of Neb and Maryland. If they aren't elite right from the start, the B1G is gonna look like the CFB version of an old folk's home.

Pitt is very fortunate to be where they are. All the hype from a couple weeks ago was just that. The ACC is solid fir at least 3 more years and likely much longer. If Pitt/Miami/Clemson have great seasons this year, Pitt and the ACC could be in great shape.

 

[The Ole Six-Fiver]

ESPN will only save the ACC to the extent that it benefits them. That doesn't mean they won't help at all: they will do a cost/benefits analysis.

Certainly, logical thinking would indicate that the more power teams that survive, the better for television.

As college teams become disenfranchised, so will their fans. The vast majority of college fans are in it because they have a team involved. It is their enfranchisement that causes them to watch college football on TV.

For example, if West Virginia were to be eliminated from major college football, I doubt that most of their fans would continue to be interested in college ball. The vast majority would probably just shift to pro football, such as the Steelers. They're unlikely to adopt another college team to follow.

It would be that way with most, if not all, college fanbases. Hopefully, this insight will dawn on the powers that be. Once a species becomes extinct, it just doesn't come back.

Preaching to the choir brutha.

I’m completely in agreement with some that there has been overreaction on here AT THIS TIME to the situation. The ACC isn’t dead, and won’t be dead this year, and our team is still qualified to compete for the NC if we were to somehow run the table or close to it. We have very good prospects for this year.

But the chess pieces are positioned on the board and the SEC and B1G have already taken four pieces away for their side, with more to come, and the rest will be checkmated. Of those that lose, that may be the end of football for them.

The only item I take issue with is your example is WVU. I think they actually will continue slavishly following their football program regardless of where they are situated. There’s very little else for pride or entertainment there. They are already used to being minor league in the state. Just being honest, it’s a beautiful state and despite all the sniping and trolling between our fans, we all realize there are good qualities to many WV people. But they don’t have much in that state to shift their, uh, unique kind of fandom. They can also better rationalize what a great achievement it would be to win something in their new conference or league, whatever it is.

In actuality the program with the most danger of seeing its fanbase disintegrate is ours. Especially those of us who reside in the city (or in other cities), which would be a bigger % of our fans than most. There’s just too much other activities to transfer our interest to. As I’ve been saying (saying and saying) Pitt is a high level professional sports city and basically ignores its lower level college sports. And it is particularly apt to drop a team that used to be premium for the last, oh, 95 years, and got dropped to store brand.