I'm not trying to be a downer, but a realist. I'm reading some crazy things on the board (and on the comments section of the Post-Gazette and anywhere Pitt hoops fans congregate, really).
People suggesting we're going to be top half of the ACC. One person saying we'll win 60% of our games this season. Another that we're better than he thought we were going to be and that we've got a legit shot at the NIT.
These two games aren't meaningless, but they just don't tell us much—other than we're not as bad a team as we were last year. We actually have the ability to put away awful teams. Both YSU and VMI were rated below 300 on KenPom, and VMI is actually worse than its rating. I believe they were 307, and they were without two starters.
Plus, I always check in with one of my sources pre-game to get his take and expectations. Pre-YSU, I was told the Penguins were a poor defending team and we should win easily, by at least 15. Pre-VMI, I asked the same question and he predicted a bloodbath. Said they were probably the worst team he's seen on film in the several years and that if we didn't win by AT LEAST 30, it would be a major disappointment. Then VMI showed up minus two starters.
So, the good news is, the boys did what they were supposed to do and blew out a God-awful team. The bad news is, this shouldn't alter long-term expectations for this season. My expectations remain 10-3 in the non-con (beat everyone we should beat and lose to Iowa, St. Louis, and WVU, or lose to someone we should beat and then upset one of the other three) and 3-15 in ACC, with a best-case scenario of 5-13 and worst-case of 2-16. That should put final season record between 12-19 and 15-16, sans the ACC tourney.
I'm thrilled with the way the boys look so far. Lots of fun things to see, from great potential in the three frosh, to much better, more aggressive D, to better athletes all over the floor. But the fact remains that against two of the weakest teams we'll see all year, our bigs combined for 19 total points. 19!! And that includes garbage-time points for Terrell and Samson last night. In the ACC (and against P5s), that's going to be an enormous problem. We'll be scouted, and teams will attack us there both offensively and defensively. We saw it last year against VaTech, when Kerry Blackshear had a career night against us, going for 31. The kid only averaged 12 ppg for the entire season. In 18 other ACC games, he scored 20 against one ACC opponent (Boston College).
And while the guards most certainly are quick and can penetrate, they're playing against ole defense currently. That's going to change in a hurry, even in the non-con.
Again, not trying to be alarmist or negative. There's a lot to like and lots of promise and hope for the future. But two games against two teams that are among the worst in D1 shouldn't change the season outlook.
#h2p
People suggesting we're going to be top half of the ACC. One person saying we'll win 60% of our games this season. Another that we're better than he thought we were going to be and that we've got a legit shot at the NIT.
These two games aren't meaningless, but they just don't tell us much—other than we're not as bad a team as we were last year. We actually have the ability to put away awful teams. Both YSU and VMI were rated below 300 on KenPom, and VMI is actually worse than its rating. I believe they were 307, and they were without two starters.
Plus, I always check in with one of my sources pre-game to get his take and expectations. Pre-YSU, I was told the Penguins were a poor defending team and we should win easily, by at least 15. Pre-VMI, I asked the same question and he predicted a bloodbath. Said they were probably the worst team he's seen on film in the several years and that if we didn't win by AT LEAST 30, it would be a major disappointment. Then VMI showed up minus two starters.
So, the good news is, the boys did what they were supposed to do and blew out a God-awful team. The bad news is, this shouldn't alter long-term expectations for this season. My expectations remain 10-3 in the non-con (beat everyone we should beat and lose to Iowa, St. Louis, and WVU, or lose to someone we should beat and then upset one of the other three) and 3-15 in ACC, with a best-case scenario of 5-13 and worst-case of 2-16. That should put final season record between 12-19 and 15-16, sans the ACC tourney.
I'm thrilled with the way the boys look so far. Lots of fun things to see, from great potential in the three frosh, to much better, more aggressive D, to better athletes all over the floor. But the fact remains that against two of the weakest teams we'll see all year, our bigs combined for 19 total points. 19!! And that includes garbage-time points for Terrell and Samson last night. In the ACC (and against P5s), that's going to be an enormous problem. We'll be scouted, and teams will attack us there both offensively and defensively. We saw it last year against VaTech, when Kerry Blackshear had a career night against us, going for 31. The kid only averaged 12 ppg for the entire season. In 18 other ACC games, he scored 20 against one ACC opponent (Boston College).
And while the guards most certainly are quick and can penetrate, they're playing against ole defense currently. That's going to change in a hurry, even in the non-con.
Again, not trying to be alarmist or negative. There's a lot to like and lots of promise and hope for the future. But two games against two teams that are among the worst in D1 shouldn't change the season outlook.
#h2p
