I was taking a look at how Oklahoma State was doing and seeing what might change between this year and next year when we face them at their place, and I like what I see.
How OkSt has looked: They're 6-0 and ranked #14, but they had trouble against Central Michigan in the 1st game of the year, then took care of Central Arkansas and UTSA, and have spent the last 3 weeks barely getting past Texas, Kansas State, and WVU (they're a combined 8-10, none have winning records), all in above-average scoring games (avg. score 33-29), and winning all of them in the final 2 minutes or OT.
On Offense: They are built on a pass-heavy offense, with Soph QB Mason Rudolph (4* recruit) throwing for a consistent 300 yards/game, but his 9-7 TD-Int ratio is bad, and although he only threw 60 passes last year as a freshman, he had a similar 4-3 ratio. The turnovers are bad and consistent (they're actually increasing in frequency, and he was recently benched during a tight game for a senior we'll never see) and he's not a running threat, so nothing terribly intimidating with him (but I will reiterate that he was a 4* recruit who is averaging 315 yards/gm at 63%). His top WR target is David Glidden, who is a Sr and could end up in the NFL. Another starting WR Brandon Shepherd is also a senior and might end up in the NFL based on his physical gifts alone. The other 2 starting WR's return and have some talent. OkSt's top-2 RB's average 4.1 and 3.7 yards/carry for a combined 101 yards/game, and both return. The entire starting OL returns next year, but with those low yards/rush and giving up 12 sacks (not bad, not good), I can't imagine they're that good (as recruits: three 3*, two 2*); supposedly G/C Paul Lewis is their best lineman and is a potential late-round draftee in '17. Pitt likes to stop the run and bother the QB into throwing interceptable passes -- looks like OkSt is already doing half the work for us on those fronts, but they are and will remain plenty capable of dinking and dunking down the field in annoying-to-the-defense fashion.
On Defense: Their defense has given up plenty of points and rushing yards, but OkSt currently sits at #1 in sacks/game, right above Pitt and Ped State, and their pass defense as a result is pretty good. Their best defensive player by a large margin and the top cog in their pass rush is DE Emmanuel Ogbah. Although he's a junior he's expected to declare and be a 1st-rounder this spring. Their other DE, Jimmy Bean, is also quite good but is a senior who could be a later draft pick. Arguably their next 2 best defensive players (CB Kevin Peterson and MLB Ryan Simmons) will also graduate to the NFL this year. They'll return a couple decent players behind all these guys (particularly FS Sterns and OLB Jacobs) and they retain their aggressive pass rush up front, but their fans will be uneasy to see how that continues without Ogbah and Bean on the line. If their D takes a noticeable step back in being able to pressure the opposing QB, the efficient Peterman could have a field day in the 3rd game of his senior year, plus their defense against the rush isn't that good, so a fully healthy Conner would be devastating to them.
Overall: Their offense is pass-heavy (which a LPitts-less D is OK with), but their QB doesn't run and is vulnerable, plus he throws a lot of interceptions, and they lose 2 of their best WR's before '16. On D, they give up points but get after the QB, but their best defensive players are leaving before '16 and we should be able to run on them. Pitt will have a true warm-up before OkSt (Ped State the week before) but OkSt will not (SE Louisiana, Central Michigan) -- I don't know if that's good or bad (we're tested, but they can show less in the lead up). We lose some big talent this offseason (Boyd & Holtz on O -- Grigsby, Render, maybe Price on D), but getting Conner back could be a major boost, especially as Peterman continues spreading the ball around, and the DL and DB's still retain plenty of talent. All in all, I feel pretty good about this game based on what OkSt is now and what they lose after this season.
How OkSt has looked: They're 6-0 and ranked #14, but they had trouble against Central Michigan in the 1st game of the year, then took care of Central Arkansas and UTSA, and have spent the last 3 weeks barely getting past Texas, Kansas State, and WVU (they're a combined 8-10, none have winning records), all in above-average scoring games (avg. score 33-29), and winning all of them in the final 2 minutes or OT.
On Offense: They are built on a pass-heavy offense, with Soph QB Mason Rudolph (4* recruit) throwing for a consistent 300 yards/game, but his 9-7 TD-Int ratio is bad, and although he only threw 60 passes last year as a freshman, he had a similar 4-3 ratio. The turnovers are bad and consistent (they're actually increasing in frequency, and he was recently benched during a tight game for a senior we'll never see) and he's not a running threat, so nothing terribly intimidating with him (but I will reiterate that he was a 4* recruit who is averaging 315 yards/gm at 63%). His top WR target is David Glidden, who is a Sr and could end up in the NFL. Another starting WR Brandon Shepherd is also a senior and might end up in the NFL based on his physical gifts alone. The other 2 starting WR's return and have some talent. OkSt's top-2 RB's average 4.1 and 3.7 yards/carry for a combined 101 yards/game, and both return. The entire starting OL returns next year, but with those low yards/rush and giving up 12 sacks (not bad, not good), I can't imagine they're that good (as recruits: three 3*, two 2*); supposedly G/C Paul Lewis is their best lineman and is a potential late-round draftee in '17. Pitt likes to stop the run and bother the QB into throwing interceptable passes -- looks like OkSt is already doing half the work for us on those fronts, but they are and will remain plenty capable of dinking and dunking down the field in annoying-to-the-defense fashion.
On Defense: Their defense has given up plenty of points and rushing yards, but OkSt currently sits at #1 in sacks/game, right above Pitt and Ped State, and their pass defense as a result is pretty good. Their best defensive player by a large margin and the top cog in their pass rush is DE Emmanuel Ogbah. Although he's a junior he's expected to declare and be a 1st-rounder this spring. Their other DE, Jimmy Bean, is also quite good but is a senior who could be a later draft pick. Arguably their next 2 best defensive players (CB Kevin Peterson and MLB Ryan Simmons) will also graduate to the NFL this year. They'll return a couple decent players behind all these guys (particularly FS Sterns and OLB Jacobs) and they retain their aggressive pass rush up front, but their fans will be uneasy to see how that continues without Ogbah and Bean on the line. If their D takes a noticeable step back in being able to pressure the opposing QB, the efficient Peterman could have a field day in the 3rd game of his senior year, plus their defense against the rush isn't that good, so a fully healthy Conner would be devastating to them.
Overall: Their offense is pass-heavy (which a LPitts-less D is OK with), but their QB doesn't run and is vulnerable, plus he throws a lot of interceptions, and they lose 2 of their best WR's before '16. On D, they give up points but get after the QB, but their best defensive players are leaving before '16 and we should be able to run on them. Pitt will have a true warm-up before OkSt (Ped State the week before) but OkSt will not (SE Louisiana, Central Michigan) -- I don't know if that's good or bad (we're tested, but they can show less in the lead up). We lose some big talent this offseason (Boyd & Holtz on O -- Grigsby, Render, maybe Price on D), but getting Conner back could be a major boost, especially as Peterman continues spreading the ball around, and the DL and DB's still retain plenty of talent. All in all, I feel pretty good about this game based on what OkSt is now and what they lose after this season.
