Now that we’ve been through this expansion business a few times, I think we have learned some lessons.
1.) Nobody Knows Anything
Now, lots of reporters and fans alike will pretend like they know what is happening and they will make all sorts of predictions about where this is all going — some of which will make perfect sense and some of which will make almost no sense. However, I am telling you, without an ounce of doubt, they only know what the power brokers want them to know. Nobody has any real inside information.
2.) This Will All Unfold Pretty Quickly In Real Time But It Will Feel Slow
We live in a time where there’s just such an inundation of media that there will be rumors every single day about this wild-ass scenario or that wild-ass scenario or even some tamer scenarios. Also, leagues will have to act fairly aggressively to protect themselves. However, a solid 95-98% of what you read is straight up bullshit and you need to know that ahead of time.
If the likes of Michigan and Clemson and Ohio State knew that this was happening they would have leaked it out because they would’ve tried to kill it. The fact that it only leaked out last week by Texas A&M tells you that it was kept under lock and key for a long time. Nobody knows anything right now and everyone is trying to process what the hell is going on?
3.) Pitt Is Not In Immediate Peril
Again, the first reaction of every sky-is-falling Pitt fan I knew was, “Oh my God, we are so dead.”
No, we are not
In fact, depending on how things shake out here, this could actually work out reasonably well for Pitt.
There is always the specter of the Big Ten carving out other ACC programs. That could definitely happen and that becomes a greater threat if we’re unable to bridge the contractual divide.
However, the Grant of Rights is a very real deterrent and it runs through 2036. I don’t think anything is going to happen with the ACC for a number of years.
4.) Pitt Is Not Remotely Safe Long Term
Having said all of that, with the Supreme Court’s recent ruling regarding the student-athletes’ ownership rights to their own Name/Image/Likeness, as well as all of the upheaval we are seeing around us, it is very clear that a decidedly middle class program like Pitt is nowhere near safe in the long term.
However, the good news is I think you could make that same observation for about 80 or 90 other programs in America. We are far from alone here.
The pundits are now talking about a 32-team Super League but don’t pay any attention to any of that blather. They have no idea and that’s just a number they’re pulling out of their ass. The weird thing about college athletics is that if enough reporters start pulling the same number out of their respective assholes, eventually it becomes conventional wisdom and it’s usually little more than straight up bullshit.
I’ve learned nothing else about the business of college football over the years it is that this will be messy and prolong and it will make no sense whatsoever when it’s finished.
A nice, neat, tidy 32-team league divided into four divisions of eight or eight divisions of four will never, ever happen.
Or it could happen but if it does just know that in doing so it will defy every single major action in the history of the sport.
5.) This Is Not Just A Football League
Again, every bit of analysis you will see will be through the football lens and that makes perfect sense because of the outsized impact football has on athletic budgets.
However, as this becomes more and more aggressive, it’s going to have an impact on a much wider array of universities and student-athletes.
There will definitely be Title IX implications here that I don’t even want to think about because it’s going to be very nasty.
Also, while football definitely generates the most money at almost every major university in the country, it is not the only revenue generator at these universities and that too will become a factor in all of these decisions.
I have some more specific points to make and some guesses about how some things might turn out but I will save those for later.
1.) Nobody Knows Anything
Now, lots of reporters and fans alike will pretend like they know what is happening and they will make all sorts of predictions about where this is all going — some of which will make perfect sense and some of which will make almost no sense. However, I am telling you, without an ounce of doubt, they only know what the power brokers want them to know. Nobody has any real inside information.
2.) This Will All Unfold Pretty Quickly In Real Time But It Will Feel Slow
We live in a time where there’s just such an inundation of media that there will be rumors every single day about this wild-ass scenario or that wild-ass scenario or even some tamer scenarios. Also, leagues will have to act fairly aggressively to protect themselves. However, a solid 95-98% of what you read is straight up bullshit and you need to know that ahead of time.
If the likes of Michigan and Clemson and Ohio State knew that this was happening they would have leaked it out because they would’ve tried to kill it. The fact that it only leaked out last week by Texas A&M tells you that it was kept under lock and key for a long time. Nobody knows anything right now and everyone is trying to process what the hell is going on?
3.) Pitt Is Not In Immediate Peril
Again, the first reaction of every sky-is-falling Pitt fan I knew was, “Oh my God, we are so dead.”
No, we are not
In fact, depending on how things shake out here, this could actually work out reasonably well for Pitt.
There is always the specter of the Big Ten carving out other ACC programs. That could definitely happen and that becomes a greater threat if we’re unable to bridge the contractual divide.
However, the Grant of Rights is a very real deterrent and it runs through 2036. I don’t think anything is going to happen with the ACC for a number of years.
4.) Pitt Is Not Remotely Safe Long Term
Having said all of that, with the Supreme Court’s recent ruling regarding the student-athletes’ ownership rights to their own Name/Image/Likeness, as well as all of the upheaval we are seeing around us, it is very clear that a decidedly middle class program like Pitt is nowhere near safe in the long term.
However, the good news is I think you could make that same observation for about 80 or 90 other programs in America. We are far from alone here.
The pundits are now talking about a 32-team Super League but don’t pay any attention to any of that blather. They have no idea and that’s just a number they’re pulling out of their ass. The weird thing about college athletics is that if enough reporters start pulling the same number out of their respective assholes, eventually it becomes conventional wisdom and it’s usually little more than straight up bullshit.
I’ve learned nothing else about the business of college football over the years it is that this will be messy and prolong and it will make no sense whatsoever when it’s finished.
A nice, neat, tidy 32-team league divided into four divisions of eight or eight divisions of four will never, ever happen.
Or it could happen but if it does just know that in doing so it will defy every single major action in the history of the sport.
5.) This Is Not Just A Football League
Again, every bit of analysis you will see will be through the football lens and that makes perfect sense because of the outsized impact football has on athletic budgets.
However, as this becomes more and more aggressive, it’s going to have an impact on a much wider array of universities and student-athletes.
There will definitely be Title IX implications here that I don’t even want to think about because it’s going to be very nasty.
Also, while football definitely generates the most money at almost every major university in the country, it is not the only revenue generator at these universities and that too will become a factor in all of these decisions.
I have some more specific points to make and some guesses about how some things might turn out but I will save those for later.
