Does College Basketball survive this in a recognizable form?
I can see two possible outcomes of this.
1) Either basically all of the top 50 programs exposed so far are heavily sanctioned, with as one writer posited, HOF coaches in jail, programs banned from play or at least post-season play for years, most top recruits permanantly ineligible as amateurs and charged with tax evasion at least. A corollary to that is probable huge reductions in the NCAAT TV money which funds the NCAA and much of the smaller colleges' athletic programs.
2) Or, alternatively, a few coaches get fired, some lower level guys go to jail, programs get a slap on the wrist. Tthere are well publicized but minor reforms and 2-3 years from now, it's business as usual.
The first scenario could lead to massive change, anything from the end of scholarship basketball to even shutting down D-1 for a while, or forever. An experienced coach told a friend this will shut down AAU ball forever. If blue bloods and HOF coaches are dragged down, and recruiting becomes a level playing field, the average fan might not recognize the game.
We automatically make so many assumptions about which league and jobs are attractive. Death penalties for, say, just the top 50 programs exposed so far could reduce our league to below A-10 status. Other power leagues would be hit more or less the same. Current P-5 status could be meaningless for a while. TV ratings would plummet.
The second is probably more likely. The money is probably just TOO big. An easy analogy is the Pedophilia State situation. The NCAA and Big Ten wouldn't allow real sanctioning or suspending them for covering up heinous crimes merely to avoid altering the schedule for a handful of TV games. Major changes due to a significant number of name schools' absence would affect almost evrryone in the sport. I just don't see TV allowing that. ESPN lives on college basketball through the Winter. CBS and the other major networks are not far behind. They NEED many hours of popular programimg to attract advertising to pay the bills.
The NCAA is not an independent regulatory agency. It is exactly the Association of the National Colleges Athletics schools. They don't want to put themselves or their wealthy members out of business. They want the semblance of regulation but ignore the messy details whenevrr possible. The FBI would have to drag them kicking and screaming to real reform.
Maybe some reforms happen, but I don't see half the ACC , Big 12, Big 10, etc. being suspended.
Maybe I'm just cynical. But, in this era of Trump, I think the FBI will be reined in and it will be "Money Talks" as usual.
I can see two possible outcomes of this.
1) Either basically all of the top 50 programs exposed so far are heavily sanctioned, with as one writer posited, HOF coaches in jail, programs banned from play or at least post-season play for years, most top recruits permanantly ineligible as amateurs and charged with tax evasion at least. A corollary to that is probable huge reductions in the NCAAT TV money which funds the NCAA and much of the smaller colleges' athletic programs.
2) Or, alternatively, a few coaches get fired, some lower level guys go to jail, programs get a slap on the wrist. Tthere are well publicized but minor reforms and 2-3 years from now, it's business as usual.
The first scenario could lead to massive change, anything from the end of scholarship basketball to even shutting down D-1 for a while, or forever. An experienced coach told a friend this will shut down AAU ball forever. If blue bloods and HOF coaches are dragged down, and recruiting becomes a level playing field, the average fan might not recognize the game.
We automatically make so many assumptions about which league and jobs are attractive. Death penalties for, say, just the top 50 programs exposed so far could reduce our league to below A-10 status. Other power leagues would be hit more or less the same. Current P-5 status could be meaningless for a while. TV ratings would plummet.
The second is probably more likely. The money is probably just TOO big. An easy analogy is the Pedophilia State situation. The NCAA and Big Ten wouldn't allow real sanctioning or suspending them for covering up heinous crimes merely to avoid altering the schedule for a handful of TV games. Major changes due to a significant number of name schools' absence would affect almost evrryone in the sport. I just don't see TV allowing that. ESPN lives on college basketball through the Winter. CBS and the other major networks are not far behind. They NEED many hours of popular programimg to attract advertising to pay the bills.
The NCAA is not an independent regulatory agency. It is exactly the Association of the National Colleges Athletics schools. They don't want to put themselves or their wealthy members out of business. They want the semblance of regulation but ignore the messy details whenevrr possible. The FBI would have to drag them kicking and screaming to real reform.
Maybe some reforms happen, but I don't see half the ACC , Big 12, Big 10, etc. being suspended.
Maybe I'm just cynical. But, in this era of Trump, I think the FBI will be reined in and it will be "Money Talks" as usual.
