I know there was a thread on this topic the other day, but figured I would start a new one with the math on where we could end up.
With Kyle Fugedi's commitment, we now have 1,556 points in the Rivals system, which still has us ranked 20th in the nation. While I won't pretend to know who is left on the respective recruiting boards for each team below us, it is highly unlikely we remain there based on where we stand today.
Since Rivals adopted its current scoring system in 2013, no team has finished with a top 30 class with fewer than 1,605 points. Furthermore, the average point total for the 30th ranked class in the eight classes between 2013 and 2020 is 1,649 points, so that's probably more of the bar of where you need to be rather than the 1,605 total. Even still, 1,649 points is just the average, as there have been four instances in the last eight classes of the 30th ranked class having more than 1,649 points, topping out with Kentucky having 1,702 points in the 2018 class. So hitting that 1,649 point bar still does not guarantee you a top 30 class.
For the sake of this discussion though, let's assume hitting 1,649 points would guarantee us the 30th class in the country for 2021. How would we get there? Rivals only counts the top 20 commits in your class, so right now Marco Fugar and Trey Andersen do not even count towards our total. To move our ranking up, any future players we land would need to be those who are rated higher than a 5.5 three-star prospect, as that is currently our lowest ranking among our top 20 recruits (we have nine players with that ranking).
Based on what we know today, and not accounting for Pitt potentially pulling any rabbits out of the hat before the second signing day in February, the two recruits who seem most likely for us to land AND who would push us past 1,649 points would be George Rooks and Tamarion Crumpley. Rooks is currently worth 147 points and Crumpley is worth 75 points, so you would add their combined score of 222 points to our current score of 1,556 points, then would subtract 120 points as two of those nine 5.5 three-star commits would no longer count. The end result would be a 24 man class worth 1,658 points, and would give us a great chance at being in the top 30.
Rooks obviously seems like a bit of a long shot, so if we only land Crumpley that would make our class worth 1,571 points. Historically speaking, the average class ranking since 2013 for a class with that many points has been 35th in the nation.
This post isn't meant to knock our class as currently constructed, as I do like it quite a bit, but just to level-set expectations. It is possible that player evaluations could be all over the map this year due to the pandemic, with Rivals being extra cautious about upgrading players, which could then suppress team's overall scores and make it possible for us to stay in the top 30 based on who we have presently committed. I guess we won't know that until the dust settles. Barring that though, it is pretty much imperative that we land George Rooks (or somebody similar later on) for us to have a realistic shot at the top 30 this year.
With Kyle Fugedi's commitment, we now have 1,556 points in the Rivals system, which still has us ranked 20th in the nation. While I won't pretend to know who is left on the respective recruiting boards for each team below us, it is highly unlikely we remain there based on where we stand today.
Since Rivals adopted its current scoring system in 2013, no team has finished with a top 30 class with fewer than 1,605 points. Furthermore, the average point total for the 30th ranked class in the eight classes between 2013 and 2020 is 1,649 points, so that's probably more of the bar of where you need to be rather than the 1,605 total. Even still, 1,649 points is just the average, as there have been four instances in the last eight classes of the 30th ranked class having more than 1,649 points, topping out with Kentucky having 1,702 points in the 2018 class. So hitting that 1,649 point bar still does not guarantee you a top 30 class.
For the sake of this discussion though, let's assume hitting 1,649 points would guarantee us the 30th class in the country for 2021. How would we get there? Rivals only counts the top 20 commits in your class, so right now Marco Fugar and Trey Andersen do not even count towards our total. To move our ranking up, any future players we land would need to be those who are rated higher than a 5.5 three-star prospect, as that is currently our lowest ranking among our top 20 recruits (we have nine players with that ranking).
Based on what we know today, and not accounting for Pitt potentially pulling any rabbits out of the hat before the second signing day in February, the two recruits who seem most likely for us to land AND who would push us past 1,649 points would be George Rooks and Tamarion Crumpley. Rooks is currently worth 147 points and Crumpley is worth 75 points, so you would add their combined score of 222 points to our current score of 1,556 points, then would subtract 120 points as two of those nine 5.5 three-star commits would no longer count. The end result would be a 24 man class worth 1,658 points, and would give us a great chance at being in the top 30.
Rooks obviously seems like a bit of a long shot, so if we only land Crumpley that would make our class worth 1,571 points. Historically speaking, the average class ranking since 2013 for a class with that many points has been 35th in the nation.
This post isn't meant to knock our class as currently constructed, as I do like it quite a bit, but just to level-set expectations. It is possible that player evaluations could be all over the map this year due to the pandemic, with Rivals being extra cautious about upgrading players, which could then suppress team's overall scores and make it possible for us to stay in the top 30 based on who we have presently committed. I guess we won't know that until the dust settles. Barring that though, it is pretty much imperative that we land George Rooks (or somebody similar later on) for us to have a realistic shot at the top 30 this year.
