There are so many possible reasons that Pitt would keep Capel beyond next year, totally unrelated to his actual performance, that it should surprise people far more if they do set him loose. Any or all of these factors are going to be more important:
* AD not wanting that stain of failure, especially if she’s actively seeking better jobs, which is almost certain…Pitt certainly ain’t her dream. Remember, it technically isn’t a failure until he’s actually let go.
* New chancellor, who will quite likely be a POC (or at the very least much more progressive than the current), who will want to back him. Remember that winning in revenue sports will be even less important than ever to Pitt leadership in coming years.
* New Pgh mayor also a POC. Recall he ran on the pledge to put POC first in the city, and could raise a public stink if Pitt looks to be dissing a fellow POC who has been socially active. Remember that Pitt and the city have a tumultuous relationship, even in best of times. Is it worth jeopardizing civic cooperation for future development plans, just to dump a basketball coach?
* Pitt students who are highly progressive and most certainly were NOT drawn to attending the school with visions of cheering in the Oakland Zoo. Remember, the current generation of undergrads at Pitt likely can’t even remember a Pitt team in the NCAA tournament. But they HAVE been taught that social matters are the most important thing in the world. Run off a POC coach merely for losing silly games??? How bourgeois! Occupy The Pete!
* And possibly the most: Even if the Capel buyout goes significantly down after this year, it still is gonna be pretty high. All of us here cavalierly scoffing at 5 million or whatever. Remember, Pitt (with a new progressive chancellor not in the least but interested in winning sports) might be even less willing to grovel to the obnoxious bourgeois old white rich guys that will demand, gasp, input.
That all said, even all this might not be enough if he does an 0-fer or close to it, and while still time to go, it appears so far like he might reach a low never seen in talent here. If the program is even a bigger laughingstock than it already is, the ACC will likely have something to say as well.
Dam, what a sad situation.