First Four Momentum

[Pitt2009]

Obviously nobody wants to play in the first four because you need to win an extra game. However, does the team that wins have an advantage over the “bye” team.

Playing on normal rest. No first game tourny nerves. Confidant and coming off a win.

 

[upj87]

Obviously nobody wants to play in the first four because you need to win an extra game. However, does the team that wins have an advantage over the “bye” team.

Playing on normal rest. No first game tourny nerves. Confidant and coming off a win.

have to look up the success rate when compared to the other 11 seeds who do not play in the game...get an intern on that.

 

[thebadby2]

Obviously nobody wants to play in the first four because you need to win an extra game. However, does the team that wins have an advantage over the “bye” team.

Playing on normal rest. No first game tourny nerves. Confidant and coming off a win.

UCLA a couple years ago comes to mind.

 

[BballinsiderfromPitt]

VCU final four run

 

[JD1976]

This also the first time that I can remember in the history of the First Four that a team playing on Tuesday doesn’t play until Friday. I could be wrong but it always seemed like the Tuesday play-in teams always played Thursday.

 

[GaryMcgheeForThree]

I posted this a week ago, but here’s a brief look.

Historically, the 11 seed wins 37.5% of their regular games against the 6 seed, with lower first four winners 10/22 or 45.5% of the time, and again, often go much further. And if we’re talking 11 seed first four winners only, they are 8/16 or 50.0%:

• 2011- #11 VCU made to the final four.
• 2012- #12 USF upset #5 Temple.
• 2013- #13 La Salle made it to the S16.
• 2014- #11 Tennessee made it to the S16.
• 2015- #11 Dayton upset #6 Providence.
• 2016- #11 Wichita St. upset #6 Arizona.
• 2017- #11 USC upset #6 SMU.
• 2018- #11 Syracuse made it to the S16.
• 2019- The only year there were no upsets.
• 2021- #11 UCLA made it to the final four.
• 2022- #11 Notre Dame upset #6 Alabama.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Obviously nobody wants to play in the first four because you need to win an extra game. However, does the team that wins have an advantage over the “bye” team.

Playing on normal rest. No first game tourny nerves. Confidant and coming off a win.

First Four teams are above .500 in the Round of 64. 2 have made the Final Four. Its a huge advantage to be in the First Four if you actually win that game.

 

[Pitt2006]

ASU looked good last night as well.

 

[Zeldas Open Roof]

winning 3 games in 6 days to make the sweet 16 is a tall order.. If we can win tomorrow, team is gonna be dragging ass on sunday. especially our team with Federiko possibly out and us being down like 4 scholarship players.

we played 6 guys on tuesday, 7 if you count the one twin's 3 minutes but really, we played 6.. you dont want to play the "play in" game if you dont have to.

 

[upj87]

winning 3 games in 6 days to make the sweet 16 is a tall order.. If we can win tomorrow, team is gonna be dragging ass on sunday. especially our team with Federiko possibly out and us being down like 4 scholarship players.

we played 6 guys on tuesday, 7 if you count the one twin's 3 minutes but really, we played 6.. you dont want to play the "play in" game if you dont have to.

3 games in 6 days and dragging ass <> early 20's young men. A light week in the NBA

 

[Pitt2006]

3 games in 6 days and dragging ass <> early 20's young men. A light week in the NBA

Yeah, and running on adrenaline. I think they can do it, I am more worried about injury risks. Another game equals more chances for injuries and held my breath when Nelly was limping a little…

 

[panther.fan]

winning 3 games in 6 days to make the sweet 16 is a tall order..

Teams win their conference championships by winning 3-4 in 3-4 days straight the week before! Pitt had a lot of rest between games, and if they advance to the sweet 16 its a Friday/Sunday site. This shouldn't be an excuse at all.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

winning 3 games in 6 days to make the sweet 16 is a tall order.. If we can win tomorrow, team is gonna be dragging ass on sunday. especially our team with Federiko possibly out and us being down like 4 scholarship players.

we played 6 guys on tuesday, 7 if you count the one twin's 3 minutes but really, we played 6.. you dont want to play the "play in" game if you dont have to.

Winning 3 games is tough. The time period of Tuesday night to Sunday afternoon isnt the issue though. That's enough rest for 24 year olds.

 

[AllegeneeGenacGenac]

I posted this a week ago, but here’s a brief look.

Historically, the 11 seed wins 37.5% of their regular games against the 6 seed, with lower first four winners 10/22 or 45.5% of the time, and again, often go much further. And if we’re talking 11 seed first four winners only, they are 8/16 or 50.0%:

• 2011- #11 VCU made to the final four.
• 2012- #12 USF upset #5 Temple.
• 2013- #13 La Salle made it to the S16.
• 2014- #11 Tennessee made it to the S16.
• 2015- #11 Dayton upset #6 Providence.
• 2016- #11 Wichita St. upset #6 Arizona.
• 2017- #11 USC upset #6 SMU.
• 2018- #11 Syracuse made it to the S16.
• 2019- The only year there were no upsets.
• 2021- #11 UCLA made it to the final four.
• 2022- #11 Notre Dame upset #6 Alabama.

That's interesting. Either the committee is mis-seeding teams or there's an actual benefit to playing in the first four (or both).

I'm confident the former is at least part of the explanation, but it does seem like there's a benefit to getting a win under your belt before playing a higher seeded team.

 

[Pitt2006]

I posted this a week ago, but here’s a brief look.

Historically, the 11 seed wins 37.5% of their regular games against the 6 seed, with lower first four winners 10/22 or 45.5% of the time, and again, often go much further. And if we’re talking 11 seed first four winners only, they are 8/16 or 50.0%:

• 2011- #11 VCU made to the final four.
• 2012- #12 USF upset #5 Temple.
• 2013- #13 La Salle made it to the S16.
• 2014- #11 Tennessee made it to the S16.
• 2015- #11 Dayton upset #6 Providence.
• 2016- #11 Wichita St. upset #6 Arizona.
• 2017- #11 USC upset #6 SMU.
• 2018- #11 Syracuse made it to the S16.
• 2019- The only year there were no upsets.
• 2021- #11 UCLA made it to the final four.
• 2022- #11 Notre Dame upset #6 Alabama.

For additional context
2011: VCU had 1 day off prior to beating Georgetown, which hadn’t played in 9 days
2012: USF beat Temple, which hadn’t played in 7 days
2013: La Salle beat Kansas State, which hadn’t played in 6 days (had lost in Big 12 champ game)
2014: Tenn beat Umass, which hadn’t played in 7 days
2015: Dayton beat providence, which hadn’t played in 7 days
2016: Wichita beat Arizona, which hadn’t played in 7 days
2019: Buffalo had won the MAC 6 days before beating ASU and had 30 plus wins
Belmont only lost by 2 to Maryland, which hadn’t played in 7 days

Not sure what to make, as most teams will have had at least 6 days off if they get bounced early in conference tourneys. Iowa State will have been off 7 days between games…Not sure what will be more important as they already have more depth than Pitt, but maybe less chemistry early on.

 

[cabe23]

 

[Duneaux Harm]

Obviously nobody wants to play in the first four because you need to win an extra game. However, does the team that wins have an advantage over the “bye” team.

Playing on normal rest. No first game tourny nerves. Confidant and coming off a win.

Apparently only one team has won the next game after a one point victory in Dayton. Ironically It was Dayton that won. I am guessing that implies that a one point game was likely a grind and the next one becomes tough or you truly were an 11 seed and losing to a five is more than expected.

 

[Pitt2009]

First Four winners are now 2-1. ASU trying to make it 3-1.

 

[TempleBAPittMPA]

First Four teams are above .500 in the Round of 64. 2 have made the Final Four. Its a huge advantage to be in the First Four if you actually win that game.

Certainly more of an advantage if you win that game than if you lose it.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Certainly more of an advantage if you win that game than if you lose it.

Its a weird game. Because if you lose it, it feels like you didnt make the NCAAT. Like being invited to a party, but you have to leave at 7PM before the party gets going. But if you go there and win it, its a pretty big advantage to having played in it and won it as teams usually carry that over to another W.

 

[Blair_45]

We talked about this a lot last week if this Pitt team just got in and got in a good bracket that they had a chance to make some noise and potentially make a sweet 16 run. And here we are one win away from doing just that. Gonna be another fun day on Sunday after noon to see how this game with Xavier unfolds. I like Pitt’s chances.