Fleury
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Better than that, and honestly he is playing the best goal in a playoff run since I dunno.....maybe Hasek in Buffalo. He has been unbelievable. It does piss me off a bit in the "where was that here over the past 5-6 years?"
He was pretty good last year also
I hear you regarding some of those previous seasons, though who knows how things would have turned out if that wasnt an issue
Given the way that some of the Pens' defenders played in the playoffs, I'm not convinced that Flower could've done better than Murray did. Murray could've sued Letang & Co. for non-support -- and won.
I believe if he wasn’t concussed just before the start of the 2016 playoffs, he would have at least one and maybe two more Stanley Cups on his resume as a starting netminder.
However, things happen and he’s in Vegas now. I was sad to see him go, but it was an obvious decision to go with Murray and I don’t blame anyone for making it. However, I am definitely rooting for “The Flower” to win a Cup this year.
However, things happen and he’s in Vegas now. I was sad to see him go, but it was an obvious decision to go with Murray and I don’t blame anyone for making it. However, I am definitely rooting for “The Flower” to win a Cup this year.
This is exactly it. Fleury's playing well, but Vegas also has a tight defense and most of their forwards are defensively responsible as well. Swap Murray and Fleury and you're virtually guaranteed to swap their results as well. The only reason I say virtually is because there's no telling how much the death of Murray's father was still affecting him. Might have been something of a lost season for him even without the defensive struggles, between that tragedy and his injuries.
Fleury played at a much higher level than Murray in the playoffs. Make all the excuses you want, if we had Fleury in goal we’d still be playing. That said, Murray is younger and a lot cheaper and other moves would have had to have been made to fit him under the cap. Hopefully Murray returns to form and we have more cup runs in this group of Pens.
Two questions I have:
1) Are the Pens still in it if we still have Fleury?
2) If Fleury never gets his concussion in 2016 and he’s the goalie that wins the Pens back-to-back Cups, do the Pens keep Fleury in the expansion draft?
1) Are the Pens still in it if we still have Fleury?
2) If Fleury never gets his concussion in 2016 and he’s the goalie that wins the Pens back-to-back Cups, do the Pens keep Fleury in the expansion draft?
All shots aren't equal. The Penguins allow an outrageous number of high percentage shots, Vegas does not.
I’m going to disagree with you here, most of Vegas’s game throughout the season has been predicated on a very high risk, high pressure strategy. Their forwards take a ton of chances trying to create turnovers way up the ice and often leave the defensemen somewhat on an island. It’s why you see both teams have so many wide open guys in the slot in almost every game they play. When your entire style is speed and pressure based like that you better have a guy in net that is capable of making the spectacular save multiple times a game. This year Fleury (and Subban) were able to do that.
I see the league adapting to this a little more next season, and I don’t see them having nearly the same success. It’s been toned down a little in the playoffs, but for a lot of the regular season I would go so far as to label it gimmicky.
You can't play a system like that without defensively responsible forwards, though. It's like playing a high line in soccer with a weak midfield. Suicide. Sure, Vegas take a lot of chances up the ice and sometimes that backfires, but that doesn't hang a goalie out to dry the way that being irresponsible defensively, not establishing a net-front presence, not backchecking effectively, leaving opponents open next to goal for an entire powerplay and other fundamental things like that do. Vegas take risks, but still give Fleury a hell of a lot more support than Murray gets in Pittsburgh.
The first line combo of Tanger & Dumo was atrocious. Two offensive minded defensemen paired together was what ended that series, not so much the play of Murray.
On the final seconds of the season, #8 was pinched hard on the Pens rush, completely taking himself defensively out of the play as the puck was back checked off the stick of Sid. Letang was nowhere to be found on the counterattack (very similar to the equalizer in the 3rd period of Game 5) & it was season over. Completely unacceptable given the circumstances.
On the final seconds of the season, #8 was pinched hard on the Pens rush, completely taking himself defensively out of the play as the puck was back checked off the stick of Sid. Letang was nowhere to be found on the counterattack (very similar to the equalizer in the 3rd period of Game 5) & it was season over. Completely unacceptable given the circumstances.
There’s no telling how the Philadelphia series would have gone. They could have just as easily still been in his head from 2015.
Both teams give up the same amount of shots on goal a game (~30) and both teams block the same amount (~17) of shots per game. Letang plays like a lost 5 year old and the Pens play a stonger game in their end without him.
Maybe. But again, Kessel was hurt, Malkin was hurt, Letang was below par.....
2) THat is interesting. What definitely would NOT have happened is Murray would not have been exposed to the expansion draft. People forget, Murray set an AHL record for shutout minutes streak. Murray was named to the Under 23 entry in that World Cup of Hockey...BEFORE he won a cup. So he was considered the top goalie in the world not playing in the NHL. I think he was in the top 5 prospects of the Hockey News Prospect Watch. So if anything, Murray would have been traded first.........OR....Fleury's value would have been really really high, and he moved via trade and not just exposed in the expansion draft
I think we learned later that fleury was a delayed trade -handshake deal.
With Vegas giving us cap relief to get Brasard.
Who I think will be the key for a cup run again, next year.
I’m loving the Tampa has the caps on the brink
I agree that there is a relationship between the defense and goalie .... that is why statistics like GAA and Save % are really team statistics because they depend both on how good the defense is and how good the goalie is ..... the same goalie is going to have a worse GAA and Save % if he has a bad defense then if he has a good defense in front of him.
The important question is whether we can separate out how well a goalie is playing independent of how the defense is playing ....... the answer is that advanced goalie analytics seem to help in that regard ..... they allow us to see how the goalie is playing irregardless of whether the defense is good or bad.
I apologize if posters already understand what I'm about to go through but for those that are not familiar with this data it may be informative and a bit of a surprise to some.
There are people who analyze every shot on goal in every NHL game and classify the shots as either 1) Low danger shots (< or = to 3% chance of scoring), 2) Medium danger shots (>3 and <9% chance of scoring), or 3) High danger shot (> or = 9% chance of scoring).
Based on the shots a goalie faced (low, medium, and high danger), a statistic called an "expected save %" for the goalie can be calculated .... that is the save % an AVERAGE NHL goalie would make on the quality of shots the goalie faced..... the higher the expected save % for a goalie, the easier the shots he faced.
If you take the goalies actual save % in games and subtract the calculated expected save % based on the difficulty of shots he faced, you get a number called the Delta save % ..... a positive Delta save % means the goalie saved more shots then the average NHL goalie would have saved on the difficulty of shots he faced and a negative Delta save % means he saved fewer shots then the average NHL goalie would have saved.... for example if a goalies actual save % is 91% in games and his expected save % is 92%, then his delta save% is -1.00 and it means he saved less goals than an average NHL goalie would have saved on the quality of shots he faced.
There is one more stat that I want to mention, the Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) which is a cumulative stat that tells how many goals a goalie saves compared to what the average NHL goalie would save on the same difficulty of shots .... positive numbers are good and negative bad.
These above stats (difficulty of shots, expected save %, delta save % and GSAA) help to separate out how a goalie is playing separate from how his defense is playing.
Now, what are the advanced stats in this years playoffs showing about how Murray and Fleury are playing independent of their defenses compared to the 10 goalies who have played the most minutes in this years playoff.....
- Save % based on quality of shots faced .... Low danger shots ( MAF ranked #1, MM #5), Medium danger shote (MAF #3, MM #9), High danger shots (MAF #1, MM #7).
- Expected save % (% an average NHL goalie would save if they faced the same shots that the goalie faced) - MAF = 91.05 % and MM = 92.39 % ( IMPORTANT: these are not MAF and MM's actual save % but what would be expected to be the save % of the average NHL goalie based on the shots each faced) ..... THIS MEANS THAT OVERALL MAF HAS FACED MORE DIFFICULT SHOTS IN THE PLAYOFFS THEN MM .... I REPEAT MORE DIFFICULT as MAF's expected save % is lower then MM based on the shots each faced ! .... the argument that the Pens defense in the playoffs allowed more difficult shots against MM then MAF's defense allowed against him is not true and in fact the opposite appears to be true.
- Shots on goal/ game .... MAF 32.8/game, MM 26.2/game
- Delta save % .... MAF +3.51, MM -1.63 ..... which means MAF made more saves then the average goalie would have made on the shots he faced and MM made less saves then the average goalie would have made.
- GSAA ..... MAF +16.09, MM -5.95 ..... meaning MAF saved a lot more goals then the average NHL goalie would have and MM saved fewer goals then the average NHL goalie would have based on the shots they faced.
- Not only has MAF faced more shots/game but overall has faced more difficult shots then MM and yet MAF has been significantly better in basically ever category so far ..... I say so far because it would not be out of the question that MAF could let in some "bad" goals, implode, and his performance go downhill at any time .... but if he continues playing as he has to date in the playoffs for the remainder of the playoff, his performance would be considered phenomenal .... MM's performance was subpar .... remember, I'm only talking about this years playoffs.
The important question is whether we can separate out how well a goalie is playing independent of how the defense is playing ....... the answer is that advanced goalie analytics seem to help in that regard ..... they allow us to see how the goalie is playing irregardless of whether the defense is good or bad.
I apologize if posters already understand what I'm about to go through but for those that are not familiar with this data it may be informative and a bit of a surprise to some.
There are people who analyze every shot on goal in every NHL game and classify the shots as either 1) Low danger shots (< or = to 3% chance of scoring), 2) Medium danger shots (>3 and <9% chance of scoring), or 3) High danger shot (> or = 9% chance of scoring).
Based on the shots a goalie faced (low, medium, and high danger), a statistic called an "expected save %" for the goalie can be calculated .... that is the save % an AVERAGE NHL goalie would make on the quality of shots the goalie faced..... the higher the expected save % for a goalie, the easier the shots he faced.
If you take the goalies actual save % in games and subtract the calculated expected save % based on the difficulty of shots he faced, you get a number called the Delta save % ..... a positive Delta save % means the goalie saved more shots then the average NHL goalie would have saved on the difficulty of shots he faced and a negative Delta save % means he saved fewer shots then the average NHL goalie would have saved.... for example if a goalies actual save % is 91% in games and his expected save % is 92%, then his delta save% is -1.00 and it means he saved less goals than an average NHL goalie would have saved on the quality of shots he faced.
There is one more stat that I want to mention, the Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) which is a cumulative stat that tells how many goals a goalie saves compared to what the average NHL goalie would save on the same difficulty of shots .... positive numbers are good and negative bad.
These above stats (difficulty of shots, expected save %, delta save % and GSAA) help to separate out how a goalie is playing separate from how his defense is playing.
Now, what are the advanced stats in this years playoffs showing about how Murray and Fleury are playing independent of their defenses compared to the 10 goalies who have played the most minutes in this years playoff.....
- Save % based on quality of shots faced .... Low danger shots ( MAF ranked #1, MM #5), Medium danger shote (MAF #3, MM #9), High danger shots (MAF #1, MM #7).
- Expected save % (% an average NHL goalie would save if they faced the same shots that the goalie faced) - MAF = 91.05 % and MM = 92.39 % ( IMPORTANT: these are not MAF and MM's actual save % but what would be expected to be the save % of the average NHL goalie based on the shots each faced) ..... THIS MEANS THAT OVERALL MAF HAS FACED MORE DIFFICULT SHOTS IN THE PLAYOFFS THEN MM .... I REPEAT MORE DIFFICULT as MAF's expected save % is lower then MM based on the shots each faced ! .... the argument that the Pens defense in the playoffs allowed more difficult shots against MM then MAF's defense allowed against him is not true and in fact the opposite appears to be true.
- Shots on goal/ game .... MAF 32.8/game, MM 26.2/game
- Delta save % .... MAF +3.51, MM -1.63 ..... which means MAF made more saves then the average goalie would have made on the shots he faced and MM made less saves then the average goalie would have made.
- GSAA ..... MAF +16.09, MM -5.95 ..... meaning MAF saved a lot more goals then the average NHL goalie would have and MM saved fewer goals then the average NHL goalie would have based on the shots they faced.
- Not only has MAF faced more shots/game but overall has faced more difficult shots then MM and yet MAF has been significantly better in basically ever category so far ..... I say so far because it would not be out of the question that MAF could let in some "bad" goals, implode, and his performance go downhill at any time .... but if he continues playing as he has to date in the playoffs for the remainder of the playoff, his performance would be considered phenomenal .... MM's performance was subpar .... remember, I'm only talking about this years playoffs.
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-This will be determined as to who wins the Cup. The Kings and Sharks cannot score, so he inflated his numbers beating 2 weak pacific teams. His performance against the Jets is impressive.
-I dont buy the argument 100%. This was Murray's worst year of the 3 in the playoffs at 2.43 goals against. That still ranks in the Top 50 all time in save percentage for career playoffs. Stating Murray was subpar with a Top 50 all time ranking for career GAA in his worst year doesnt define subpar. The Pens didnt win the Cup, but they did in the last 2 years.
-The 2nd issue I have is the Kings and Sharks were arguably the 2 worst teams on offense in the entire playoffs and the Pacific division is by far the worst in hockey, and the Sharks had Big Joe playing on 1 leg. I do find what MAF is doing against the Jets very impressive. The Penguins injuries was a bigger problem (Malkin, Kessel, Dumo, Hags, etc..) and bad Letang then anything.
-3rd, MAF's career GAA in the playoffs is 2.54. He's been in the league 12 years. Murray's GAA against in this years playoffs at 2.43 would have been MAF's 5th best performance in his entire career in the playoffs. MAF is having the better season, but Murray is blowing him away in his first 3 years accomplishments. MAF is a borderline HOF goalie. Murray can become one of the best goalies ever.
lol best goalies EVER!!!!!! You crack me up man.
Will Pitt be lightening U again this year?
-Already there, and the Penguins should be contenders for a long time in the future.
Patrick Roy
GAA- 2.3
Save %- 91.8
Dom Hasek
GAA 2.02
Save % 92.5
Marty Brodeur
GAA- 2.02
Save % 91.9
Murray
GAA 2.08
Save % 92.3
MAF
GAA 2.54
Save % 91.3
-Ken Dryden is easily the best goalie of All Time and its not close. 3% save percentage better then every other goalie in his time frame. With new era adjusted stats, he peaks at 94.5% save percentage. He's now so far ahead of everyone it wasnt worth mentioning. Its like comparing players to Gretzky and Lemieux except this was during a far higher peak scoring era then today.
A real fairytale like ending for Ryan Reaves scoring the game winner in his hometown. First goal for Vegas and about as unlikely a hero as you can get considering he’s been a healthy scratch more often than not since he’s arrived.
Fleury with back to back Conn Smythe performances 2 years in a row. Only difference is this year, he doesn’t have a coach with a man crush for the pothead goalie to take it away from him.
Go Vegas! Go Flower!!
Go Vegas! Go Flower!!
Response ......
My post was trying to explain advanced goalie stats to anyone who may not understand them and I specifically said in my post that I was comparing the stats of MAF and MM in this years playoffs only ..... NO OTHER TIME PERIOD !!! ..... I was not giving my thoughts on their careers in the regular season or other playoffs or their potential ...... therefore, your 3rd point has nothing to do with my post or conclusions.
Again, your 1st point talking about GAA and goalie save %, misses the entire point of my post and why advanced analytics are important..... go back and read the first two paragraphs of my post ..... GAA and save % tend to be team statistics and the advanced analytics separate out how the goalie is playing regardless of how good or bad his defense is playing.
Your 2nd issue that the teams MAF played against are offensively challenged is not really true based on their regular season scoring and does not explain why MAF has faced more difficult shots then MM faced in the playoffs based on the combination of low, medium, and high danger shots that the two goalies faced..... their expected save % shows MAF has faced the more difficult shots overall yet MAF despite facing more shots/game and more difficult shots overall is markedly better then MM in every category ..... AGAIN WE ARE ONLY TALKING ABOUT THIS YEARS PLAYOFFS ..... no other time period.
I agree completely that the Pens injuries were a big problem this playoff season and NEVER said that MM's play was the biggest issue ..... but it was an issue.
MM stats when compared to the ten goalies who played the most minutes in this years playoff were mostly in the bottom half ..... all the advanced stats that compare MM performance to what the average NHL goal would be expected to do with the same quality shots show MM's stats were basically all below average, and certainly, as you said, this was MM's worst playoff ..... putting this all together, I would say his performance was subpar this playoff season ..... and I certainly do not believe the Pens lost the playoffs because of MM .... it was a combination of factors.
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Sharks scored 247 goals, Kings scored 237 goals, for a combined 484 goals.
Flyers scored 249 goals, Capitals scored 256 goals, for a combined 505 goals.
Murray faced a whopping 21 goals more!! 12-3 in this years playoffs and he made the #2 scoring team in the NHL look like they were cursed. He STOLE games against Winnepeg. When is the last time Murray did that? Murray and his glove were requiring 4 goals a game to win.
I love the Pens more than any pro or college team and have for 30 years now. I hope Murray comes back, but none of the questions I had about him after 2 cups have been answered.
1.) Will he ever fix his glove?
2.) Can he play 85 games a year? Or will injuries max him out at 50-60 meaning you have to spend too much on a backup.
3.) How wil he play when the Pens go offensive and leave him hung out to dry instead of playing a Tortarella block everything system?
You are comparing Murray's 2 1/2 year playoff run with goalies that have had more than 10 year playoff runs. With a group of players other teams did not want to protect MAF is the best goalie in this years playoffs. With a line up loaded with superstars, Murray was one of the worst..............this year.
-Whatever qualifies has a high danger chance, Id like to see the stats for how many breakaways and odd man rushes the Pens gave up to other teams. That is the highest of high danger chances we we gave up probably three times as many against Washington as to what we generated as a team.
-If Murray was subpar, take a look at Vasy, Brobrovsky, Rinne, Dubnyk, Gibson, Anderson, Bernier, Rask, and Philly's big mess.
-The only goalies better this year were Fleury, Quick, Schneider, Jones, and Holtby, and the margins besides Fleury and Quick are small. If the bar for Matt Murray is 2.43 or better in the playoffs, the Penguins will win a lot of playoff games in the future. And ironically, I dont think Murray has ever even been pulled in a single playoff game, even in off nights. Every other goalie that has an off night has been pulled besides Fleury and Quick.
this is easily the best fleury has played in his career
the entire league should be embarrassed they helped an expansion team make the final
the entire league should be embarrassed they helped an expansion team make the final
Response .....
Again, my posts were discussing and analyzing this years playoffs, not the regular season ...... not sure why you are bringing up the regular season because that is a different discussion.
If you look at the advanced goalie analytics for this years playoffs, MM is in the bottom half/below average in every category and the degree of difficulty of shots he faced was one of the easiest ..... he didn't have a very good playoff season ..... if he works on some things, he will be really good again next year.
lol you mean like Florida giving them Jonathan Marchessault if they would take Reilly Smith’s contract? They only produced 69 goals and 86 assists this year combined. So many other terrible moves because of salary cap reasons. Vegas is going to be good for a while.
Throw out the stats and watch the games. Murray had you in hold your breath mode on every shot this year during the playoffs. How many of washington’s goals were glove hand? The announcers even called it out during game 2 I believe. If you think only Pens fans know about the glove....you’re sadly mistaken. He either works on it hard this offseason, or he takes a giant step back imo. It’s not just a weakness bad, it’s terrible to the point he just smacks the puck down when he does make contact.
At least you made me smile ...... I brought up advanced analytics because I disagreed with some posts in the thread and the advanced stats helped support my point ..... the problem with the eyeball test is that it can be deceiving at times and is dependent on the knowledge of the eyeball ..... by the way, I watched every Pens game this season ......
Also, I talked about problems with Murray's glove hand last year (2016-2017) before any announcer mentioned it and that other teams watch film and will find weaknesses and exploit them ...... in a post in the long Pens thread on the Football Forum, I discussed reasons why I thought Murray had a down year and what I thought he could do to improve things ..... the glove hand is a BIG problem but not his only problem.
Yeah you mean the team that the oddsmakers had finishing dead last before the season with an O/U season point total of around 68?
It’s not so much the league as them doing an exceptional job of acquiring guys with contract issues that they had every intent of moving before the trade deadline. I’m not sure where anyone thought this teams scoring would come from, no one on the roster looked like a real goal scorer.
Basically you had Fleury and Malcolm Subban playing spectacularly in net all season and literally the entire roster having career years.
He faces an average of 33.7 shots per game in the playoffs, that's the most shots on goal per game against of any team that made it out of the first round. Vegas' d has been solid, not getting caught out of position a ton and looking silly. But opponents putting that many shots on net, obviously they're spending a good bit of time in the Vegas zone, so they haven't really been lock-down amazing either.
People always point to his glove hand, but what bothered me (affected him) the most, is this was the first time I saw MM off his angles, chasing the play, much like MAF has done in his history. I think he had a bit of a confidence issue for whatever reason, he is young, injuries his dad's death likely messed with his concentration and focus, which affected his confidence. He is young, far from finished. I would bet on him rebounding. I do like to think he works a bit more on strength and flexibility, but a concussion is a concussion.
As for MAF, his post season play has been Roy like, Hasek like. Easy Conn Smythe winner if Vegas wins. Good for him. But no one, not even his wife could have predicted this kind of season/post season. He has been great, better than great this post season.
But man oh man, there has been some major revisionist history by Fleury fans (were these the same people who wanted to run him out of town a few years ago?) .. I saw one poster up there talking about "back to back Conn Smythes", except the coach played favorites. Here are two sets of numbers from last year's playoffs:
Goalie A 9-6 record, 2.56 GAA, .924 save % 2 shut outs.
Goalie B, 7-3 record, 1.70 GAA, .937% save %, 3 shut outs.
Goalie A, Marc Andre Fleury. Goalie B, Matt Murray. I see so many people opine how Fleury saved the season by shutting out the Caps in Game 7, when they fail to acknowledge Murray had back to back shutouts in the last 2 games of the finals against the Preds. Just some really revisionist history applied by many Fleury supporters.
On top of this, Murray is 10 years younger, 2 million dollars of cap space cheaper. It was a no brainer of a move. Good on MAF for putting this season, which I think cements his place in the Hall of Fame, together. But let's also acknowledge that the start of Murray's career has him on that path also.
Why can't we just cheer and appreciate Fleury's efforts without continually denigrating the other. Some of you have no idea how this all works and the history of the game, I am sorry. And you are also revising history.
One other thing, Vegas is no fluke. Man, they are really good and just never, ever stop. They remind me alot of the 2016 Cup winning Pens. Just rolling 4 lines, getting in shooting lanes, being so aggressive on the forecheck, causing so many turnovers, at this point it is not a fluke.
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