This tool does a pretty good job showing why playing football in the time of COVID is so challenging (https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/). The map shows the chance that at least one person at an event has COVID in a group (10-10,000 people) broken down by counties across the country. This assumes that based on the antibody prevalence testing, there are 10 times more cases than what has been reported. For pretty much the entire country (except the far northeast), there is a greater than 99% chance that someone in a group of 500 or more people has COVID. For Allegheny County:
10 people = 10% chance
25 people = 24% chance
50 people = 40% chance
100 people = 67% chance
500 or more people = 99% chance
This makes it obvious why having thousands of fans in the stands was never a real option. But if we think about a college football roster with its coaching staff, maybe the 50-100 people mark is the most relevant as these people are grouped together for practices and games. For Pitt, we can estimate there's a 40-67% chance someone associated with Pitt football is positive for COVID (basically a coin flip). Some counties in Florida have a 99% chance in a small group of just 10 people. For Florida State in Tallahassee, that risk is 86%-99% for 50-100 people. Basically, the whole South US is above 75% for a group of 50 people. So for the SEC and ACC to decide to play football, they are saying they are comfortable with the high risk that at least one person in their southern football programs is positive. Agree or disagree on the decision-making, this is the information they have.
I think this shows that for most of us, having a small get together with a group of 10 friends is really not too risky and can be done in a safe way. The goal is to prevent outbreak clusters where 1 person turns into 50 people. Of course, there are additional measures that can be taken to minimize the risk, like wearing masks and washing your hands, that could lower these numbers.
10 people = 10% chance
25 people = 24% chance
50 people = 40% chance
100 people = 67% chance
500 or more people = 99% chance
This makes it obvious why having thousands of fans in the stands was never a real option. But if we think about a college football roster with its coaching staff, maybe the 50-100 people mark is the most relevant as these people are grouped together for practices and games. For Pitt, we can estimate there's a 40-67% chance someone associated with Pitt football is positive for COVID (basically a coin flip). Some counties in Florida have a 99% chance in a small group of just 10 people. For Florida State in Tallahassee, that risk is 86%-99% for 50-100 people. Basically, the whole South US is above 75% for a group of 50 people. So for the SEC and ACC to decide to play football, they are saying they are comfortable with the high risk that at least one person in their southern football programs is positive. Agree or disagree on the decision-making, this is the information they have.
I think this shows that for most of us, having a small get together with a group of 10 friends is really not too risky and can be done in a safe way. The goal is to prevent outbreak clusters where 1 person turns into 50 people. Of course, there are additional measures that can be taken to minimize the risk, like wearing masks and washing your hands, that could lower these numbers.
