The big day is almost upon us, and I think everyone is anxious: players, coaches, fans, media. Everyone just wants to see what transpires on Saturday night.
-- First thing is first: Penn State is a good football team. Sometimes that gets lost in translation in here. They've won 11 games in each of the past two seasons, they've been recruiting at a top 15 level. They are good, they have talent. They present a great challenge to Pitt. They'll have a strong presence in the stands. It won't be the 50/50 some of their fans think, but they'll be there. So I think everyone needs to understand that.
-- The biggest thing for Pitt is Trace McSorely, plain and simple. He's won a lot of football games and he's a dual-threat guy. He's a very good college QB and Pitt needs to find a way to slow him down. The safeties had a poor showing on Saturday. A guy like Damar Hamlin needs to step up. McSorely will get his yards, but Pitt can't let him have a field day.
But it's not all on the safeties. The pass rush really needs to get after McSorely. Two years ago Ejuan Price made such an impact on that game. But Wirginis, Soto, and Blair all made some plays behind the line of scrimmage too. There's no Ejuan Price this year. But Hendrix had a sack in Happy Valley last year. Weaver has big expectations. The DT's look like they can be effective following a strong week one. And the other factor: more blitzing. Wirginis, Idowu, and even a corner are always threats to blitz. If they can put constant pressure, that takes off pressure in the secondary.
-- Pitt also has to be mindful of the running game, and typically Pat Narduzzi defenses are. They will sell out to stop the run, almost to a detriment to the passing game. With the forecast being what it is, the rain may force PSU to rush more. Miles Sanders is listed at 5-11 215. He's added weight since being at Penn State. He's a good back. He's not Barkley, but not many guys are. Ricky Slade is a talented freshman and Mark Allen can change the pace. Pitt has to be mindful of all three.
-- Penn State has a talented returner in KJ Hamler. They can't sleep on him. Juwan Johnson is a good weapon on the outside and will present challenges to the corners covering him. Penn State has new weapons on offense: no Barkley, Gesicki, Hamilton ect. But they have talent that can step in.
--So what are some things Pitt can do on offense? I think there's plenty of things they can do, it will all be about execution. Penn State's defense has some skill, but they don't have it together just yet. They gave up 28 points to Appalachian State in the fourth quarter. So if Pitt can play with tempo, it could help attack that defense.
-- Kenny Pickett is really being thrown into the fire. He's going into his third start and it's going to be a nationally-televised primetime game against a top-15 team. If you stop and think about it: he has been projected to do a lot in a short amount of time. The Miami game was a "BIG" game, but Pitt also didn't have a lot to lose. This game - it's big and there's more pressure on him.
Pickett is a dual-threat guy. He can make plays with his legs. He's not a runner by nature, but he's not afraid to try to make a play. Another impressive quality Pickett possesses is his ability to spread the ball around. In his Miami start: he connected with 7 different receivers and last week he threw to nine guys. In a game like this he may lean on Araujo-Lopes and Mack more, but he seems comfortable with spreading it out.
-- With the impending rain, the running game will be very key. Pitt seemingly has three capable backs in Hall, Ollison, and Davis. Davis is probably the biggest home run threat, but the other two are grinders and if the conditions are bad that may be crucial. Pitt racked up 238 yards in week one. Pickett, Ffrench, and Shocky all stepped up and made some runs in addition to the backs.
So I'll say, watch for the sweeps once again. The sweeps caught PSU really off guard in 2016, but even if they are aware of them now - it can be difficult to defend. Maybe Paris Ford gets a touch with guys like Ffrench and Jacques-Louis.
-- Penn State allowed a 100-yard kickoff last week. Maurice Ffrench returned a 91 yard kickoff last week. Maybe it'll come down to a big special teams play like that. Pitt has been fortunate with a good return man like Quadree Henderson. But they are usually well-schemed and blocked well, so perhaps Ffrench keeps that strong return game going.
So the line is at about 8.5 right now. Reading a lot of predictions this week, I've been seeing people picking Penn State to win by a small margin. And that's kind of where I am as well. I think Pitt is going to play them well and play inspired. There may be some lead changes. But I think PSU will ultimately prevail 31-27 - something like that.
Would I be shocked to see Pitt win? Not really. I do think the rain is a factor, and I don't know who that benefits. But even so, Penn State is very good but Pitt is going to come out firing like they did in 2016. Pitt was reluctant to get into a running match with PSU last year, hence why they won the time of possession battle, out gained Penn State, and still lost by 19.
Should be an interesting day, but we're going to find out a ton about both teams tomorrow night.
-- First thing is first: Penn State is a good football team. Sometimes that gets lost in translation in here. They've won 11 games in each of the past two seasons, they've been recruiting at a top 15 level. They are good, they have talent. They present a great challenge to Pitt. They'll have a strong presence in the stands. It won't be the 50/50 some of their fans think, but they'll be there. So I think everyone needs to understand that.
-- The biggest thing for Pitt is Trace McSorely, plain and simple. He's won a lot of football games and he's a dual-threat guy. He's a very good college QB and Pitt needs to find a way to slow him down. The safeties had a poor showing on Saturday. A guy like Damar Hamlin needs to step up. McSorely will get his yards, but Pitt can't let him have a field day.
But it's not all on the safeties. The pass rush really needs to get after McSorely. Two years ago Ejuan Price made such an impact on that game. But Wirginis, Soto, and Blair all made some plays behind the line of scrimmage too. There's no Ejuan Price this year. But Hendrix had a sack in Happy Valley last year. Weaver has big expectations. The DT's look like they can be effective following a strong week one. And the other factor: more blitzing. Wirginis, Idowu, and even a corner are always threats to blitz. If they can put constant pressure, that takes off pressure in the secondary.
-- Pitt also has to be mindful of the running game, and typically Pat Narduzzi defenses are. They will sell out to stop the run, almost to a detriment to the passing game. With the forecast being what it is, the rain may force PSU to rush more. Miles Sanders is listed at 5-11 215. He's added weight since being at Penn State. He's a good back. He's not Barkley, but not many guys are. Ricky Slade is a talented freshman and Mark Allen can change the pace. Pitt has to be mindful of all three.
-- Penn State has a talented returner in KJ Hamler. They can't sleep on him. Juwan Johnson is a good weapon on the outside and will present challenges to the corners covering him. Penn State has new weapons on offense: no Barkley, Gesicki, Hamilton ect. But they have talent that can step in.
--So what are some things Pitt can do on offense? I think there's plenty of things they can do, it will all be about execution. Penn State's defense has some skill, but they don't have it together just yet. They gave up 28 points to Appalachian State in the fourth quarter. So if Pitt can play with tempo, it could help attack that defense.
-- Kenny Pickett is really being thrown into the fire. He's going into his third start and it's going to be a nationally-televised primetime game against a top-15 team. If you stop and think about it: he has been projected to do a lot in a short amount of time. The Miami game was a "BIG" game, but Pitt also didn't have a lot to lose. This game - it's big and there's more pressure on him.
Pickett is a dual-threat guy. He can make plays with his legs. He's not a runner by nature, but he's not afraid to try to make a play. Another impressive quality Pickett possesses is his ability to spread the ball around. In his Miami start: he connected with 7 different receivers and last week he threw to nine guys. In a game like this he may lean on Araujo-Lopes and Mack more, but he seems comfortable with spreading it out.
-- With the impending rain, the running game will be very key. Pitt seemingly has three capable backs in Hall, Ollison, and Davis. Davis is probably the biggest home run threat, but the other two are grinders and if the conditions are bad that may be crucial. Pitt racked up 238 yards in week one. Pickett, Ffrench, and Shocky all stepped up and made some runs in addition to the backs.
So I'll say, watch for the sweeps once again. The sweeps caught PSU really off guard in 2016, but even if they are aware of them now - it can be difficult to defend. Maybe Paris Ford gets a touch with guys like Ffrench and Jacques-Louis.
-- Penn State allowed a 100-yard kickoff last week. Maurice Ffrench returned a 91 yard kickoff last week. Maybe it'll come down to a big special teams play like that. Pitt has been fortunate with a good return man like Quadree Henderson. But they are usually well-schemed and blocked well, so perhaps Ffrench keeps that strong return game going.
So the line is at about 8.5 right now. Reading a lot of predictions this week, I've been seeing people picking Penn State to win by a small margin. And that's kind of where I am as well. I think Pitt is going to play them well and play inspired. There may be some lead changes. But I think PSU will ultimately prevail 31-27 - something like that.
Would I be shocked to see Pitt win? Not really. I do think the rain is a factor, and I don't know who that benefits. But even so, Penn State is very good but Pitt is going to come out firing like they did in 2016. Pitt was reluctant to get into a running match with PSU last year, hence why they won the time of possession battle, out gained Penn State, and still lost by 19.
Should be an interesting day, but we're going to find out a ton about both teams tomorrow night.
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