Game Night

[Joe the Panther Fan]

I cant pull his previous rankings. I dont pay for it. But Ill start printscreening some of his goofyness from here on out. I know Kent State was ranked in the 300's at some point.

Because Ive had debates over Pomeroy. Im going to keep a track record of it. Its funny. Because on this Pitt board Pomeroy is the second coming of Jesus. On the main college basketball board, 98% of the people there laugh at pomeroy.

I look at it, but with a grain of salt.

We'll just stick to seeding teams, which is what is important.

The RPI is used.
Pomeroy isnt.

I care about what seed Pitt gets. There is not much more to say. If you dont think the Top seeds dominate the Top of the RPI, I can show you they do, it is 100% correlated.

There's no need to do any screen captures or anything like that. Here are the actual facts (you might want to avert your eyes, because I know those are kinda scary to you). The list is who Kent State has played and what their Pomeroy ranking was when the game was played:

Youngstown State - 118
Southern Illinois - 121
Marist - 126
St. Francis - 138
Pitt - 127
Cleveland State - 124
NJIT - 118
Louisiana Monroe - 108
Canisius (today's game) - 104

Oddly enough, none of those are anywhere close to the 300s.

As far as the validity of the rankings goes, as I said before the people who set the lines in Las Vegas use a computer program similar to Pomeroy's (and Sagrin's) to help set the lines. The people in Vegas love, I mean absolutely love, people who are dumb enough to think that the RPI is a better predictor of future game results than the computer programs are.

 

[steel_curtain]

There's no need to do any screen captures or anything like that. Here are the actual facts (you might want to avert your eyes, because I know those are kinda scary to you). The list is who Kent State has played and what their Pomeroy ranking was when the game was played:

Youngstown State - 118
Southern Illinois - 121
Marist - 126
St. Francis - 138
Pitt - 127
Cleveland State - 124
NJIT - 118
Louisiana Monroe - 108
Canisius (today's game) - 104

Oddly enough, none of those are anywhere close to the 300s.

As far as the validity of the rankings goes, as I said before the people who set the lines in Las Vegas use a computer program similar to Pomeroy's (and Sagrin's) to help set the lines. The people in Vegas love, I mean absolutely love, people who are dumb enough to think that the RPI is a better predictor of future game results than the computer programs are.

What was Kent state team ranking on pomeroy 2 weeks ago or 1 month ago? Because that is what I was talking about. Not who kent state played. I've made some decent money this year too. Thanks to Pitt and a few others.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Because Pitt's been blowing out the spread all year long minus Purdue. Just saying.

Once again, some facts. Avert your eyes!

Pitt has played six games so far this season that there has been a Vegas spread on. Pitt is 3-3 against the spread in those six games.

Detroit - 17-1/2 point favorite, 16 point win
Cornell - 25 point favorite, 44 point win
Kent State - 13-1/2 point favorite, 9 point win
Purdue - 1 point favorite, 13 point loss
Duquesne - 8-1/2 point favorite, 21 point win
Eastern Washington - 18 point favorite, 33 point win

 

[steel_curtain]

Once again, some facts. Avert your eyes!

Pitt has played six games so far this season that there has been a Vegas spread on. Pitt is 3-3 against the spread in those six games.

Detroit - 17-1/2 point favorite, 16 point win
Cornell - 25 point favorite, 44 point win
Kent State - 13-1/2 point favorite, 9 point win
Purdue - 1 point favorite, 13 point loss
Duquesne - 8-1/2 point favorite, 21 point win
Eastern Washington - 18 point favorite, 33 point win

Bet the first half. Closing games with walkons makes things tricky.

 

[wbrpanther]

You spelled Jeff long wrong

you are right. Got my AD screw ups wrong.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

They've probably been ranked in the 300's at some point, just not this year.

He only has the numbers on where a team was ranked on the day of a game going back to 2011. In that time Kent State's worst ranking on a game day was on opening day of 2014 when they were 211. So over the last 5 plus seasons they have never been ranked in the 300s, not even once.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Bet the first half. Closing games with walkons makes things tricky.

That only changes the results of one game. It turns not covering against Kent State by 1-1/2 points over the whole game into covering against Kent State by 1 point in the first half. If that's the kind of thing you are hanging your hat on, again, Vegas just loves people like you.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

And oddly enough, in the Kent State game the walkons didn't even play, so even if you want to claim the right results it wasn't for the reason that you are supposedly basing your decisions on.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

Once again, some facts. Avert your eyes!

Pitt has played six games so far this season that there has been a Vegas spread on. Pitt is 3-3 against the spread in those six games.

Detroit - 17-1/2 point favorite, 16 point win
Cornell - 25 point favorite, 44 point win
Kent State - 13-1/2 point favorite, 9 point win
Purdue - 1 point favorite, 13 point loss
Duquesne - 8-1/2 point favorite, 21 point win
Eastern Washington - 18 point favorite, 33 point win

Looking at last 3, Sagarin ratings were pretty similar as they usually are--

Don't recall for sure what they were for Duquesne, the odds makers 8.5 sounds about the same. Central Arkansas was 26. Eastern Washington was 21. By the way Sagarin's computer had Pitt as a about a 6.5 dog to Purdue. Sagarin had, and continues to have, Purdue higher rated than the human polls. They are currently #1 in a virtual 3-way tie with #2 Michigan State and #3 Oklahoma per Sagarin.

Bottom Line, we are playing better than the odds-makers and the Sagarin computer has been predicting for the past 3 games. This pretty much corresponds to Maia's emergence as a healthy and fitter option at the 5-spot.

I am thinking that is the reality going forward which projects us about a #10-15 range Sagarin team team vs our current Sagarin #26.

 

[DT_PITT]

Bet the first half. Closing games with walkons makes things tricky.

Not really.

In two of the three games where Pitt didn't beat the spread, the walk-ons didn't even play.

In the other (Detroit), the walk-ons entered the game with one minute to go and we had a 16 point lead and we ended the game with a 16 point lead.

 

[sherepower]

I live in Houston, but attend every game I'm in town for. I attended the Cornell game over Thanksgiving and will be at the Western Carolina and Syracuse games coming up. I never missed a game in my 5 years at Pitt (needed 150 credits for my certifications), and didn't miss a single home game for probably 4 or 5 years before my time at Pitt. Also was at every Greentree game.

I love basketball, Pitt or not. Obviously Pitt is my team, but going to any game is never a chore for me. I love seeing Pitt basketball games in person.

Edit: Cordially, I hope you had fun tonight, shere. As a Pitt superfan who is above any and all criticism, I'm sure you were at tonight's game. As such, I hope it was enjoyable. It was probably fun to watch Pitt not winding the clock down to 5 seconds and shooting. I greatly appreciated you speaking of the teams you watched play college basketball last year while betting, and assessing their talent. I made quite a bit! (I won't tell you whether I bet for you or against you)

Dont you think you should be a little more humble throwing Pitt fans under the bus. When you only go to a few games a year. Regardless of the fact you don't live around here. I know i do.

As far as me going to Pitt games. I went too A LOT more than you did. Both in football and basketball.

Seriously, I could see your point against Pitt fans. If you went to almost every game. But you don't!

 

[Pittbaseball11]

Dont you think you should be a little more humble throwing Pitt fans under the bus. When you only go to a few games a year. Regardless of the fact you don't live around here. I know i do.

As far as me going to Pitt games. I went too A LOT more than you did. Both in football and basketball.

Seriously, I could see your point against Pitt fans. If you went to almost every game. But you don't!

No, I don't. I go to every game I'm in the area for. I went to every game for about a decade before I left the area.

True fans go regardless of opponent, playing style, where the players are from, or any other BS excuse that's been thrown out to justify poor attendance.

My issue isn't the attendance, it's the excuses. People are finally realizing in football that most people just don't care about college sports. It would be nice if people just acknowledged that this city doesn't like or support basketball to the level the fans like to believe.

Edit: I don't really care about the people who live 2 hours away not making every game, that can be tough, the big issue is that there is no secondary market for those tickets because the overall support/interest in the area is just bad.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

What was Kent state team ranking on pomeroy 2 weeks ago or 1 month ago? Because that is what I was talking about. Not who kent state played.

Those aren't the rankings of the teams that Kent State played. Those are what Kent State was ranked on the day that they played those games. For instance when Kent State played Youngstown State, KENT STATE was ranked 118, not Youngstown State. When Kent State played Southern Illinois, KENT STATE was ranked 121. Notice that none of those numbers are anywhere close to 300. Because Kent State hasn't been ranked anywhere close to 300 by Pomeroy at any time over at least the last five plus seasons. When you say that they were, you are just wrong.

Not surprisingly.