Glass Half Full?

[DC_Area_Panther]

Given the negativity on Pitt basketball on the board this morning:

Without going into a full viewing the world through blue and gold colored glasses mode -- here are some reasons in late April to see the glass being at least half-full rather than empty:

1. Johnson, McGowens & Toney should all be improved next season based on having a year under their belts and, presumably, improving their jump-shooting skills during the off-season.

2. Brown and Chukwuka ought to improve at least a smidgen having gained some additional maturity.

3. Justin Champagnie seems to actually be about 6-8 (vs 6-5) and so ought to be a factor at least in providing the coaches an opportunity to occasionally (if they want or need to) to play two bigger guys simultaneously rather than just Brown or Chukwuka and nobody else over 6-5/6 as we had to live with last year.

4. Karim Coulibaly, although probably needing a couple more years to get to the point of making a significant contribution, does at least give us 5 more fouls to give on the inside.

5. Gerald Drumgoole remains more of an unknown but is supposed to shoot the 3-ball well. Maybe by late season he can provide real value as a JWF style designated shooter?

6. Finally, ships remain open and recruiting isn't over for 2019. So, although adding JUCO Sy or a second freshman big (like ORN) doesn't appear likely at the moment, we should at least expect the addition of a couple of ready to contribute (even if they won't start) grad transfers to be added late and, perhaps, also a 2020 to 2019 reclassify (Demarr Langford? ).

Bottom Line: All is not lost. We should still have hope that with whatever pieces are added over then next few months will be enough to enable progress toward winning a few more games in the 2019-20 season than the 14 we won last season.

 

[DT_PITT]

Given the negativity on Pitt basketball on the board this morning:

Without going into a full viewing the world through blue and gold colored glasses mode -- here are some reasons in late April to see the glass being at least half-full rather than empty:

1. Johnson, McGowens & Toney should all be improved next season based on having a year under their belts and, presumably, improving their jump-shooting skills during the off-season.

2. Brown and Chukwuka ought to improve at least a smidgen having gained some additional maturity.

3. Justin Champagnie seems to actually be about 6-8 (vs 6-5) and so ought to be a factor at least in providing the coaches an opportunity to occasionally (if they want or need to) to play two bigger guys simultaneously rather than just Brown or Chukwuka and nobody else over 6-5/6 as we had to live with last year.

4. Karim Coulibaly, although probably needing a couple more years to get to the point of making a significant contribution, does at least give us 5 more fouls to give on the inside.

5. Gerald Drumgoole remains more of an unknown but is supposed to shoot the 3-ball well. Maybe by late season he can provide real value as a JWF style designated shooter?

6. Finally, ships remain open and recruiting isn't over for 2019. So, although adding JUCO Sy or a second freshman big (like ORN) doesn't appear likely at the moment, we should at least expect the addition of a couple of ready to contribute (even if they won't start) grad transfers to be added late and, perhaps, also a 2020 to 2019 reclassify (Demarr Langford? ).

Bottom Line: All is not lost. We should still have hope that with whatever pieces are added over then next few months will be enough to enable progress toward winning a few more games in the 2019-20 season than the 14 we won last season.

I’ve heard Drumgoole can play for sure. I’d put Champagnie around 6-6 1/2 or 6-7.

 

[Gunga_Galunga]

We are in a much better position than the same time last year. Let the cycle play out. We'll know what we have in another month or two.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

We are in a much better position than the same time last year. Let the cycle play out. We'll know what we have in another month or two.

Absolutely!

Progress I am hoping to see: Last season's 14-19 to flip to about 17-16 -ish in 2019-20 and then advance to around 20-13 -ish in 2020-21.

 

[DT_PITT]

Absolutely!

Progress I am hoping to see: Last season's 14-19 to flip to about 17-16 -ish in 2019-20 and then advance to around 20-13 -ish in 2020-21.

That’s reasonable. Hope so!

 

[88Pitt88]

Given the negativity on Pitt basketball on the board this morning:

Without going into a full viewing the world through blue and gold colored glasses mode -- here are some reasons in late April to see the glass being at least half-full rather than empty:

1. Johnson, McGowens & Toney should all be improved next season based on having a year under their belts and, presumably, improving their jump-shooting skills during the off-season.

2. Brown and Chukwuka ought to improve at least a smidgen having gained some additional maturity.

3. Justin Champagnie seems to actually be about 6-8 (vs 6-5) and so ought to be a factor at least in providing the coaches an opportunity to occasionally (if they want or need to) to play two bigger guys simultaneously rather than just Brown or Chukwuka and nobody else over 6-5/6 as we had to live with last year.

4. Karim Coulibaly, although probably needing a couple more years to get to the point of making a significant contribution, does at least give us 5 more fouls to give on the inside.

5. Gerald Drumgoole remains more of an unknown but is supposed to shoot the 3-ball well. Maybe by late season he can provide real value as a JWF style designated shooter?

6. Finally, ships remain open and recruiting isn't over for 2019. So, although adding JUCO Sy or a second freshman big (like ORN) doesn't appear likely at the moment, we should at least expect the addition of a couple of ready to contribute (even if they won't start) grad transfers to be added late and, perhaps, also a 2020 to 2019 reclassify (Demarr Langford? ).

Bottom Line: All is not lost. We should still have hope that with whatever pieces are added over then next few months will be enough to enable progress toward winning a few more games in the 2019-20 season than the 14 we won last season.

I definitely agree with you and there are way to many glass half-empty guys on this board. Coming off the seasons we had under Stallings, how anyone could expect an immediate turn around is beyond me.

Capel is recruiting just fine. I like the kids we got for 2019 so far. Until it looks like he is reaching and bringing in guys who can't play ACC level ball, like the two coaches prior, he should be afforded the benefit of the doubt based on what he did with the 2018 class.

I have been saying for a while, and I continue to remind myself, we have to be patient. Those who are negative on 2019, even tho we haven't seen these kids play yet, are expecting too much too fast. We all want top 100 recruits now, but, the image of the program and the committment to doing what is necessary to land them must be improved before we get them. Our recruiting, so far under Capel, is undeniably improved and given time, I believe it will get even better.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Without a viable Big, I am going with 6-14 tops. With Sy, it's possibly 9-11 or 10-10. We have a very low ceiling of we cannot rebound or get easy buckets around the rim. 10% of our shots on the season were blocked which is well

 

[Chescat]

Without a viable Big, I am going with 6-14 tops. With Sy, it's possibly 9-11 or 10-10. We have a very low ceiling of we cannot rebound or get easy buckets around the rim. 10% of our shots on the season were blocked which is well

Totally agree, and I've been saying it for months. We need BIGS. A "viable big"
makes Brown a "viable" substitute off the bench, and that makes us a
much improved team IMO. If we don't get that"viable Big" we're slightly improved
with the recruits we have now, and I see MAYBE 4-5 wins inn ACC as "tops."
I don't see this as negative. I see it as realistic.

 

[FireballZ]

Totally agree, and I've been saying it for months. We need BIGS. A "viable big"
makes Brown a "viable" substitute off the bench, and that makes us a
much improved team IMO. If we don't get that"viable Big" we're slightly improved
with the recruits we have now, and I too see 6 wins inn ACC as "tops."
I don't see this as negative. I see it as realistic.

I just don’t see how we’re even slightly improved at this point unless our 3 sophs make major leaps. That said, I have faith JC will add a nice piece or two before the summer arrives.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

Totally agree, and I've been saying it for months. We need BIGS. A "viable big"
makes Brown a "viable" substitute off the bench, and that makes us a
much improved team IMO. If we don't get that"viable Big" we're slightly improved
with the recruits we have now, and I too see 6 wins inn ACC as "tops."
I don't see this as negative. I see it as realistic.

Only 6 ACC wins means we would need to go 9-2 or 10-1 or 11-0 in our reduced OOC schedule to get to 15-17 wins overall (unless we can win an ACCT game again). If we don't do at least that well (better than last season 's 14 total wins) we will be stuck with a poor recruiting selling point for late 2020 and early 2021 recruiting efforts. That, in turn, could mean Capel will ultimately fail and a search for a new coach could be on the horizon after the 2020-2021 or 2021-2022 season. Keeping my fingers crossed we don't wind up there.

 

[Chescat]

I just don’t see how we’re even slightly improved at this point unless our 3 sophs make major leaps. That said, I have faith JC will add a nice piece or two before the summer arrives.

"Slightly improved" means the 3 sophs make a normal level of improvement.
Much as I want to see a BIG in place of Brown....I have to admit he and Kene
will improve, and the three recruits will most likely be better than Davis
and Ellison. I realize Frame is gone, but a "slight improvement" is the
worst we'll do.
Beyond that,I'm hoping that Capel has some recruits we know nothing
about that will get us beyond "slight."

 

[Chescat]

Only 6 ACC wins means we would need to go 9-2 or 10-1 or 11-0 in our reduced OOC schedule to get to 15-17 wins overall (unless we can win an ACCT game again). If we don't do at least that well (better than last season 's 14 total wins) we will be stuck with a poor recruiting selling point for late 2020 and early 2021 recruiting efforts. That, in turn, could mean Capel will ultimately fail and a search for a new coach could be on the horizon after the 2020-2021 or 2021-2022 season. Keeping my fingers crossed we don't wind up there.

If you look back, I edited my post to read maybe 4-5 in ACC, if we don't get the Big.
We're basically saying the same thing regarding 14 wins and perception of the
program. We get a "viable Big" and we can get to 17 wins. If last year's team could win
3 in the league, then IMO this coming year with a "viable BIG" we can win maybe
three more and an ACCT game.
If that were to occur, your logical conclusion about future selling points would then
be less of a problem. I like Capel, and I hope he pulls this off.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

Me too--on both counts!

 

[FireballZ]

"Slightly improved" means the 3 sophs make a normal level of improvement.
Much as I want to see a BIG in place of Brown....I have to admit he and Kene
will improve, and the three recruits will most likely be better than Davis
and Ellison. I realize Frame is gone, but a "slight improvement" is the
worst we'll do.
Beyond that,I'm hoping that Capel has some recruits we know nothing
about that will get us beyond "slight."

I totally agree that people sell Brown way short. He should be a RS Soph this year. I just don’t yet see the replacements for JWF nor N’Dye to make us even slightly better. With normal improvement from the sophs, it’s probably a wash. Maybe the schedule will help in the W-column, but I’m more interested in measuring the on-court play.

I also get that this is a 4 year rebuild. I was one of the few willing to give KS the same leeway. My concern is that our two guards are gone in year 4 and then what?

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

"Slightly improved" means the 3 sophs make a normal level of improvement.
Much as I want to see a BIG in place of Brown....I have to admit he and Kene
will improve, and the three recruits will most likely be better than Davis
and Ellison. I realize Frame is gone, but a "slight improvement" is the
worst we'll do.
Beyond that,I'm hoping that Capel has some recruits we know nothing
about that will get us beyond "slight."

We won't have a winning record without a viable Big. Something like 8-3/6-14, which would be an improvement but not enough of one. This team is just too limited without a viable Big. We have nobody who can rebound, get easy buckets inside off of guard penetration and maybe most importantly, nobody to protect the rim. Capel absolutely must bring in an ACC ready Big for 2020.

 

[Chescat]

We won't have a winning record without a viable Big. Something like 8-3/6-14, which would be an improvement but not enough of one. This team is just too limited without a viable Big. We have nobody who can rebound, get easy buckets inside off of guard penetration and maybe most importantly, nobody to protect the rim. Capel absolutely must bring in an ACC ready Big for 2020.

Yup!

 

[joeydavid]

They already will be a better rebounding team with only the 3 freshmen.

Without a viable Big, I am going with 6-14 tops. With Sy, it's possibly 9-11 or 10-10. We have a very low ceiling of we cannot rebound or get easy buckets around the rim. 10% of our shots on the season were blocked which is well

 

[JS School]

They already will be a better rebounding team with only the 3 freshmen.

Agreed. Toney was the biggest guy in last year's class, he'd probably be the smallest in this year's class. They are getting bigger, even if it's not in the form of a big C.

 

[SoufOaklin4Life]

Without a viable Big, I am going with 6-14 tops. With Sy, it's possibly 9-11 or 10-10. We have a very low ceiling of we cannot rebound or get easy buckets around the rim. 10% of our shots on the season were blocked which is well

You think sy is worth 3-4 acc wins?

That’s some crazy’s talk

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

You think sy is worth 3-4 acc wins?

That’s some crazy’s talk

IMHO, he would probably be worth a bit less--probably a jump from 5 ACC wins to 7 or 8.

 

[Chescat]

You think sy is worth 3-4 acc wins?

That’s some crazy’s talk

It's not so much what Sy will do, but what his presnce allows our other players
to do. Specifically, Brown becomes a substitute and Kene might be able to
play some minutes at foward; Toney will not have to be relied upon to be our lead
rebounder. He's actually a small forward and I believe will do much better if
he doesn't have to fight the opposition's Bigs all game long. Our guards and wings
will be able to concentrate on what they do best and not have to force drives
to the hoop. They can play their floor game and not have to make up for the
teams lack of a viable Big inside.
Oh yes, we might even be able to protect the rim, rebound better, and play some defense on the other team's Bigs.
SMF is SMF...but what he's saying about BIGS...I"ve been saying it for months
on here.

 

[Chescat]

IMHO, he would probably be worth a bit less--probably a jump from 5 ACC wins to 7 or 8.

Yup, totally agree, and I posted above WHY I feel that way.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

You think sy is worth 3-4 acc wins?

That’s some crazy’s talk

For sure, we have the worst frontcourt in the P6. Add in the #1 JUCO big and you go from the worst to mediocre. He can rebound, defend, and catch dump offs so yes, he is worth 3-4 ACC wins.

 

[MarshallGoldberg]

For sure, we have the worst frontcourt in the P6. Add in the #1 JUCO big and you go from the worst to mediocre. He can rebound, defend, and catch dump offs so yes, he is worth 3-4 ACC wins.

Wow. Johnson and McGowens were worth just under 3.0 win shares across the season, which includes the entire schedule. Maybe you don't believe in that statistic but it's a pretty huge hurdle to ask a single player to increase your conference wins from 3 to 6-7. It is a team game if you haven't noticed.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

Wow. Johnson and McGowens were worth just under 3.0 win shares across the season, which includes the entire schedule. Maybe you don't believe in that statistic but it's a pretty huge hurdle to ask a single player to increase your conference wins from 3 to 6-7. It is a team game if you haven't noticed.

Yes. I realize that but you do not understand how bad our frontcourt is. If 1 of them was an above average rebounder, that would make a world of difference but we are almost playing 4 on 5.

 

[Jeffburgh]

It's not so much what Sy will do, but what his presnce allows our other players
to do. Specifically, Brown becomes a substitute and Kene might be able to
play some minutes at foward; Toney will not have to be relied upon to be our lead
rebounder. He's actually a small forward and I believe will do much better if
he doesn't have to fight the opposition's Bigs all game long. Our guards and wings
will be able to concentrate on what they do best and not have to force drives
to the hoop. They can play their floor game and not have to make up for the
teams lack of a viable Big inside.
Oh yes, we might even be able to protect the rim, rebound better, and play some defense on the other team's Bigs.
SMF is SMF...but what he's saying about BIGS...I"ve been saying it for months
on here.

Right - It isn't saying Sy is a superstar, its saying how grossly inadequate Brown/Kene are.

Brown MIGHT improve some, but it will be hard for him to get there practicing against Kene.

At a bare minimum Sy is better than Kene when he plays in games, and gives Brown an actual ACC body to practice against, and light more of a fire under him.

SM is not wrong on this one - the ceiling for next season will be set more so by what they don't have in the post than anywhere else, given that they have some answers in the other spots.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

Wow. Johnson and McGowens were worth just under 3.0 win shares across the season, which includes the entire schedule. Maybe you don't believe in that statistic but it's a pretty huge hurdle to ask a single player to increase your conference wins from 3 to 6-7. It is a team game if you haven't noticed.

People simply do not understand how hard it is for one player, especially not a superstar, to move the "win needle". They only think about what that guy is going to do on the nights they play well, the close game that they might help you win. They never consider the converse, which is the close game that you may have won except for the fact that the guy went 1-8 from the field and 1-4 from the line while fouling out.

 

[gary2]

They already will be a better rebounding team with only the 3 freshmen.

Agree

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

People simply do not understand how hard it is for one player, especially not a superstar, to move the "win needle". They only think about what that guy is going to do on the nights they play well, the close game that they might help you win. They never consider the converse, which is the close game that you may have won except for the fact that the guy went 1-8 from the field and 1-4 from the line while fouling out.

Joe,

Your valid point would be fully valid for Pitt specifically if last season's schedule would be at the same level of difficulty as next's seasons's schedule. However, in our case two things have changed:

1. We have a more favorable home vs away schedule.

2. We a have a 20 game ACC regular season schedule vs last year's 18 game schedule.

Both of these factors should, in theory, move the regular season win needle a little even without any improvement due to the arrival of new players. Looking at last year's 4-16 ACC overall (3-15 plus 1-1 in the ACCT)-- that should translate, IMHO to no worse than 5-15 or 6-14 regular season given the more favorable home schedule as long as the new recruits minus the player's gone is a wash in terms of roster strength.

 

[Thee Jackie Treehorn]

Joe,

Your valid point would be fully valid for Pitt specifically if last season's schedule would be at the same level of difficulty as next's seasons's schedule. However, in our case two things have changed:

1. We have a more favorable home vs away schedule.

2. We a have a 20 game ACC regular season schedule vs last year's 18 game schedule.

Both of these factors should, in theory, move the regular season win needle a little even without any improvement due to the arrival of new players. Looking at last year's 4-16 ACC overall (3-15 plus 1-1 in the ACCT)-- that should translate, IMHO to no worse than 5-15 or 6-14 regular season given the more favorable home schedule as long as the new recruits minus the player's gone is a wash in terms of roster strength.

But SMF was talking explicitly about how many additional wins Pitt could expect with Sy, as opposed to with our current frontcourt. Those other variables have no bearing on that projection. SMF thinks Sy is worth 3-4 wins.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

But SMF was talking explicitly about how many additional wins Pitt could expect with Sy, as opposed to with our current frontcourt. Those other variables have no bearing on that projection. SMF thinks Sy is worth 3-4 wins.

Exactly. What SMF is saying is that if we pick up, say, two additional wins based on the schedule and/or other factors that we won't win 5 or 6 next year, we'll win 8 to 10 because of Sy. Color me skeptical. Non-stars simply do not make that much difference.

 

[BFo8]

People simply do not understand how hard it is for one player, especially not a superstar, to move the "win needle". They only think about what that guy is going to do on the nights they play well, the close game that they might help you win. They never consider the converse, which is the close game that you may have won except for the fact that the guy went 1-8 from the field and 1-4 from the line while fouling out.

This is correct, you really see it when people overestimate how many points a missing player is worth on the pointspread in a single game. They always think that one guy is worth multiple points when in reality the number will move a half point at most, often not at all.

 

[Chescat]

People simply do not understand how hard it is for one player, especially not a superstar, to move the "win needle". They only think about what that guy is going to do on the nights they play well, the close game that they might help you win. They never consider the converse, which is the close game that you may have won except for the fact that the guy went 1-8 from the field and 1-4 from the line while fouling out.

Some "people" do "understand." I agree a guy like Sy won't directly "move the win
needle" all that much by himself.
What a guy like that will do IMO, is affect the play of the other players around
him. I explained this viewpoint in a post above. If we were to get a Big like
this we become a completely different team. First of all, regardless of points,
he can rebound, protect the rim, play defense, and make the other team
actually guard him and account for him. We had very little of this last year.
Also, our other players, will not have to rely on crazy dives to the hoop
through a clogged lane. They will be able to play to their strengths. They
won't have to concentrate on rebounding as much.....example, our best
rebounder was Toney. This completely took him out of his game because
he had to fight against the other team's Bigs all game long.
Just as important, our starting center Brown, now becomes a backup where I feel he
can do much better with some of the pressure of his back. Kene too, maybe he gets
some time at forward as a backup. I believe this would help both of their games.

So.....does a viable Big "move the needle" regarding wins?....yes he
does IMO.
He affects the play of the others around him in many ways.
Do we suddenly get 10 wins or get to 500 in ACC play?...no, obviously not.
Would we be able to go to 6 -8 wins? IMO, yes.
BTW...if we don't get a guy like this, I feel we'll be only "slightly" improved,
and will see a somewhat repeat of last year. Just my two cents.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

This is correct, you really see it when people overestimate how many points a missing player is worth on the pointspread in a single game. They always think that one guy is worth multiple points when in reality the number will move a half point at most, often not at all.

I think that stat is more valid for non-post players and less valid for post players because of the ability of post players to affect the game more with blocked shots and defensive rebounding and not primarily/solely based on an individual shooting/scoring differential over a less talented player.

I do believe that going 7-13 to 8-12 would be possible if we have a good enough defensive rebounder and better rim protector that opponents would not abuse us on the inside and would not get many offensive boards/2nd chance opportunities. Achieving that doesn't require having a top 10, future NBA draft pick big man.

That being said, could Sy be that level of a defensive presence? I just don't know enough about his game to know. SMF must believe Sy would be that much of an upgrade over the Brown/Chukwuka combo. I don't know whether he might be right but we can hope we land him and that he is that much of an upgrade as a rebounder and rim-protector.

 

[Chescat]

I think that stat is more valid for non-post players and less valid for post players because of the ability of post players to affect the game more with blocked shots and defensive rebounding and not primarily/solely based on an individual shooting/scoring differential over a less talented player.

I do believe that going 7-13 to 8-12 would be possible if we have a good enough defensive rebounder and better rim protector that opponents would not abuse us on the inside and would not get many offensive boards/2nd chance opportunities. Achieving that doesn't require having a top 10, future NBA draft pick big man.

That being said, could Sy be that level of a defensive presence? I just don't know enough about his game to know. SMF must believe Sy would be that much of an upgrade over the Brown/Chukwuka combo. I don't know whether he might be right but we can hope weland him and that he is that much of an upgrade as a rebounder and rim-protector.

As usual you and I are on the same page.

 

[Joe the Panther Fan]

So.....does a viable Big "move the needle" regarding wins?....yes he
does IMO.
He affects the play of the others around him in many ways.
Do we suddenly get 10 wins or get to 500 in ACC play?...no, obviously not.
Would we be able to go to 6 -8 wins? IMO, yes.
BTW...if we don't get a guy like this, I feel we'll be only "slightly" improved,
and will see a somewhat repeat of last year. Just my two cents.

I agree, with a guy like Sy we might get to 6-8 wins. An extra couple from improvement from last season combined with what will be an easier conference home/road schedule gets us to 5 or 6. And then maybe we get another 1 or 2 from Sy. The notion that we are going to get 3 to 5 extra wins just from Sy and what he brings to the table, while an enticing proposition, simply isn't going to happen. He just is not that good. And neither are any other non-star recruits.

If instead of Sy we were bringing in Zion Williamson then yeah, one guy could make 3 - 5 extra wins. Sy ain't that guy.

 

[mo cheeks]

IMHO, he would probably be worth a bit less--probably a jump from 5 ACC wins to 7 or 8.

With a little luck, Pitt could have won 7 acc games last year. They will improve. The acc will be weaker. Maybe Pitt gets a little luck on some close games.

Also, the negative Nancy with the comment that our freshman will go to the nba and we are screwed....don’t you think Capel will recruit more good players ?????

 

[Chescat]

he notion that we are going to get 3 to 5 extra wins just from Sy and what he brings to the table, while an enticing proposition, simply isn't going to happen. He just is not that good

We pretty much are saying the same thing. I agree that what Sy "brings to the table"
in itself isn't going to bring that many more wins.
What it DOES do though, is affect the players around him. They will play much differently with someone who can rebound, protect the rim, make a few putbacks, and maybe even be able to hold on to the ball in traffic. They won't have to give up some of their game because they have to fight off Bigs (Toney), concentrate on rebounding, and force up drives in the lane that are not there.
So, what I'm saying is the effect that a player like Sy has, is seen in the play of
those around him. It's not just what he does, it's what he causes the others to
be able to do.

 

[DC_Area_Panther]

With a little luck, Pitt could have won 7 acc games last year. They will improve. The acc will be weaker. Maybe Pitt gets a little luck on some close games.

Also, the negative Nancy with the comment that our freshman will go to the nba and we are screwed....don’t you think Capel will recruit more good players ?????

But, they won two early on that, in retrospect, they probably shouldn’t have (Louisville & Fla St.).