Historical data regarding Capel/outgoing transfers

[HailToPitt725]

With the recent drama surrounding the program, I thought it’d be an interesting idea to take advantage of RealGM’s “Transfers & Sitting Out” database. Conveniently, it begins the same season as Capel’s first season at VCU (02-03).

Outgoing transfers during Capel’s time at VCU
• 02-03: one (to Moreland State)
• 03-04: zero
• 04-05: one (to N/A)
• 05-06: one (to NC Central)
Total: three in four seasons

Outgoing transfers during Capel’s time at Oklahoma
• 06-07: zero
• 07-08: one (to Hutchinson C.C)
• 08-09: one (to Auburn)
• 09-10: one (to Western Kentucky)
• 10-11: one (to NC Central)
Total: four in five seasons

Historically, Capel has not had problems with outgoing transfers, even when things began to decline. Also, judging by the schools, the majority of them seemed to be players that “couldn’t make it” at their respective levels. To me, this would seem to indicate that the problem isn’t the culture that’s established by him.

Meanwhile, Pitt’s outgoing transfers under Capel.
• 2018-19: three (to Arizona, Minnesota, Tennessee-Martin)
• 2019-20: three (to Evansville, Weber State, Nebraska)
• 2020-21: two (to TBD)

Eight in three seasons speaks for itself. It’s also contrasting data in that it’s a much higher percentage of major schools. What I find interesting is that both tenures at OU and Pitt started with multiple transfers at the time of his arrival, indicating that he places a heavy emphasis on bringing in “his players,” or at the very least wasn’t holding anyone back from leaving. RealGM didn’t have any data prior to 2002 so I couldn’t find the amount of transfers prior to Capel’s arrival at VCU.

In conclusion, all this tells me that what’s happening (and has happened) might not be a long-term trend but rather a one-time miscalculation; a risk taken to inject a program with much needed-life that seems to have backfield long-term. It may also be less of a reflection on him and more on the programs that he inherited.

Thoughts?

 

[CaptainMurphy]

With the recent drama surrounding the program, I thought it’d be an interesting idea to take advantage of RealGM’s “Transfers & Sitting Out” database. Conveniently, it begins the same season as Capel’s first season at VCU (02-03).

Outgoing transfers during Capel’s time at VCU
• 02-03: one (to Moreland State)
• 03-04: zero
• 04-05: one (to N/A)
• 05-06: one (to NC Central)
Total: three in four seasons

Outgoing transfers during Capel’s time at Oklahoma
• 06-07: zero
• 07-08: one (to Hutchinson C.C)
• 08-09: one (to Auburn)
• 09-10: one (to Western Kentucky)
• 10-11: one (to NC Central)
Total: four in five seasons

Historically, Capel has not had problems with outgoing transfers, even when things began to decline. Also, judging by the schools, the majority of them seemed to be players that “couldn’t make it” at their respective levels. To me, this would seem to indicate that the problem isn’t the culture that’s established by him.

Meanwhile, Pitt’s outgoing transfers under Capel.
• 2018-19: three (to Arizona, Minnesota, Tennessee-Martin)
• 2019-20: three (to Evansville, Weber State, Nebraska)
• 2020-21: two (to TBD)

Eight in three seasons speaks for itself. It’s also contrasting data in that it’s a much higher percentage of major schools. What I find interesting is that both tenures at OU and Pitt started with multiple transfers at the time of his arrival, indicating that he places a heavy emphasis on bringing in “his players,” or at the very least wasn’t holding anyone back from leaving. RealGM didn’t have any data prior to 2002 so I couldn’t find the amount of transfers prior to Capel’s arrival at VCU.

In conclusion, all this tells me that what’s happening (and has happened) might not be a long-term trend but rather a one-time miscalculation; a risk taken to inject a program with much needed-life that seems to have backfield long-term. It may also be less of a reflection on him and more on the programs that he inherited.

Thoughts?

I wouldn't doubt it as he's never had to perform such a rebuild before (I don't think many coaches have had to deal with the hole we were in). Things were so bad here that perhaps he decided to take a chance on three guys who weren't perfect fits but were playmakers who could help immediately.
It paid off in the short term but obviously not in the long term.

 

[lilspainishflea]

NCAA Men's hoops now really seems to encourage transferring. I'm sure that skews data as well.

 

[PittMan2003]

Interesting thanks for sharing. The other thing is just the fact college basketball transfers are becoming more and more prevalent. I would imagine most coaches have a similar trend.

 

[Pittx9]

Interesting thanks for sharing. The other thing is just the fact college basketball transfers are becoming more and more prevalent. I would imagine most coaches have a similar trend.

Yeah you never know, if there were a college basketball “free agency” during his tenure at VCU and at OU it’s possible that more guys would have left too. I can’t remember the exact year, but I think it was maybe only his last couple years at OU that even the grad transfer rule came into play?

 

[Fsgolfdr]

Players should be allowed to transfer once without sitting , coaches all have their agendas that don’t always align with the players best interests and until your in their program you never know .

There are other good reasons for allowing a player to transfer without sitting ranging from personal family issues , social , emotional to Pt and coaching changes . Coaches can walk away from contracts and coach another team without sitting so why not players .

The downside of all of this is that players who far exceed their expectations will transfer to better programs making the rich even richer .

In Pitts situation the only three that are on JC are Trey , X and Toney and all three have something in common which is an over inflated opinion of their abilities . In fairness if they feel that their careers will benefit from a different environment they’re entitled .

 

[CaptainMurphy]

In fairness if they feel that their careers will benefit from a different environment they’re entitled .

Maybe, though I have trouble believing X or Toney will land in a better situation where they will receive as much playing time unless they step down a level or two. Our situation was perfect for them to showcase their skills, in the ACC no less. It's too bad they couldn't make it work.

 

[Fsgolfdr]

Maybe, though I have trouble believing X or Toney will land in a better situation where they will receive as much playing time unless they step down a level or two. Our situation was perfect for them to showcase their skills, in the ACC no less. It's too bad they couldn't make it work.

I think it’s safe to say there’s a lot of stuff behind the scenes going on here .

 

[CougarClaws]

With the recent drama surrounding the program, I thought it’d be an interesting idea to take advantage of RealGM’s “Transfers & Sitting Out” database. Conveniently, it begins the same season as Capel’s first season at VCU (02-03).

Outgoing transfers during Capel’s time at VCU
• 02-03: one (to Moreland State)
• 03-04: zero
• 04-05: one (to N/A)
• 05-06: one (to NC Central)
Total: three in four seasons

Outgoing transfers during Capel’s time at Oklahoma
• 06-07: zero
• 07-08: one (to Hutchinson C.C)
• 08-09: one (to Auburn)
• 09-10: one (to Western Kentucky)
• 10-11: one (to NC Central)
Total: four in five seasons

Historically, Capel has not had problems with outgoing transfers, even when things began to decline. Also, judging by the schools, the majority of them seemed to be players that “couldn’t make it” at their respective levels. To me, this would seem to indicate that the problem isn’t the culture that’s established by him.

Meanwhile, Pitt’s outgoing transfers under Capel.
• 2018-19: three (to Arizona, Minnesota, Tennessee-Martin)
• 2019-20: three (to Evansville, Weber State, Nebraska)
• 2020-21: two (to TBD)

Eight in three seasons speaks for itself. It’s also contrasting data in that it’s a much higher percentage of major schools. What I find interesting is that both tenures at OU and Pitt started with multiple transfers at the time of his arrival, indicating that he places a heavy emphasis on bringing in “his players,” or at the very least wasn’t holding anyone back from leaving. RealGM didn’t have any data prior to 2002 so I couldn’t find the amount of transfers prior to Capel’s arrival at VCU.

In conclusion, all this tells me that what’s happening (and has happened) might not be a long-term trend but rather a one-time miscalculation; a risk taken to inject a program with much needed-life that seems to have backfield long-term. It may also be less of a reflection on him and more on the programs that he inherited.

Thoughts?

I like your analysis, however that first season none of those guys were staying for any incoming coach. They had already decided to leave, because it was such a s*** show here.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I like your analysis, however that first season none of those guys were staying for any incoming coach. They had already decided to leave, because it was such a s*** show here.

Actually they decided to leave because they were infatuated with Kevin Stallings.

 

[TD_6082]

NCAA Men's hoops now really seems to encourage transferring. I'm sure that skews data as well.

This.

It's a totally different climate now regarding transfers. Some successful coaches have made transfers a vital part of their recruiting strategy.

It's not like it was in the past, where 75% of the time, you're just taking someone's junk out of their garage, and vice versa .