I expected to see a bump in the 2023 recruiting class because of the ACC Championship, 11-win season, and #13 finish, but so far that doesn’t appear to be the case. That can change, obviously. But, I decided to look at how one magical season impacted recruiting for similar programs to determine whether my expectations for this class were misplaced. As you’ll see, most programs don’t see a jump in recruiting because of one big year, although some do.
I looked at the 2012-2020 seasons (2012-2022 recruiting classes) for non-traditional power programs (you can quibble with who I included and excluded) that had a surprise big season where they won at least 10 games and appeared in their championship game, or at least finished in the AP top 15. I excluded SEC teams, because there is relatively little movement in that league and SEC recruiting is a different beast.
I had difficulty deciding whether to include Wisconsin, Baylor, TCU, and OK State, because while they’re not recruiting powers, they have won 10+ games consistently over the last 15+ years. Ultimately, I didn't include them because it’s hard to attribute any recruiting class to a single season (because of the consistent success). But those 4 programs, arguably along with Iowa, are what Pitt should be hoping for. They basically recruit year in and year out at the same 30-40 level, with a few outlier seasons in either direction. Pitt has not recruited as consistently as these programs yet, but we’re not too far off. Narduzzi’s 7 full recruiting classes (2016-2022) have been ranked #29, #38, #36, #49, #44, #21, and #63.
Now to the “magical season” analysis by year:
2012. Kansas State went 11-2 and won the Big 12 championship. The 2012 class signed in February before their 2012 season finished #59, their 2013 class signed a few months after the 2012 season finished #65, and their 2014 class signed a year after their breakout year finished #47. KSU had the #27 class in 2008 and a few classes in the high 30’s and low 40’s in the Rivals era, so the 2012 season didn’t really change their recruiting trajectory, but it did seem to help a little.
2013. Arizona State won the Pac-12 South going 10-4 and finishing #21. Their February 2013 class finished #34, their 2014 class signed a few months after their Pac-12 championship appearance finished #21, and their 2015 class signed after the next season finished #20. It appears that the 2013 season improved recruiting both right away and the following year. Graham followed it up with a (#12, 10-3) 2014 campaign and signed the #32 class in 2016, one year later. The only other “magical season” in 2013 was Duke who went 10-4, won the Coastal, and finished #23. Very impressive for Duke. The class signed in February 2013 finished #67, the 2014 class signed a few months after the magical season finished #58, and the 2015 class finished #62. It’s Duke, so it’s hard to draw conclusions, but the Division title and 10 wins didn’t improve recruiting.
2014. Arizona won the Pac-12 South going 10-4 and finished #19. Their February 2014 class finished #28, their 2015 class signed just after the 2014 season finished #41, and the 2016 class signed a year later finished #51. No recruiting improvement there. Georgia Tech also had a magical 2014 season. GT went 11-3 in the regular season, won the Coastal, and finished #8. By far the high-water mark for the Paul Johnson era. Recruiting to the triple is a little different, but their February 2014 class signed before their magical season finished #47, their 2015 class signed right after finished #39, and their 2016 class finished #67. That 2015 class was the highest of the Johnson era, so presumably that #8 finish had an immediate impact, but didn’t help the next year.
2015. Iowa finished the regular season 12-0, won the Big Ten West, and finished #9 in the AP poll, their best season in a long time. They’ve had a few good years recently, as well. Iowa’s February 2015 class finished #58, their 2016 class just after their magical season finished #42, and their 2017 class finished #40. Iowa has had several classes ranked around #40 under Ferentz, so there was no real improvement following their breakout 2015 season. UNC also had a special year in 2015 finishing the regular season 11-1 and #15 in the final AP with a Coastal title. UNC’s February 2015 class finished #28, their 2016 class signed just after their magical year finished #22, and their 2017 class signed after the next season was #30. UNC went 8-4 in 2016, which isn’t great, but shouldn’t have impacted recruiting too much and they still did not experience a recruiting bump.
2016. Washington won the Pac-12, finished 12-2, made a CFP appearance, and finished #4 in the AP poll. Peterson is one hell of a coach. Washington’s February 2016 recruiting class finished #37, their 2017 class signed shortly after their CFP appearance finished #23, and their 2018 class signed a year after their CFP appearance finished #15. Huge recruiting momentum following their magical 2016 season. Staying in the Pac-12, Colorado also had a magical 2016 season finishing 10-4, winning their Division, and finishing #17 in the AP poll. Colorado’s February 2016 class finished #65, their 2017 class signed right after their magical season finished #32, and their 2018 class signed one year later finished #51. The Buff’s fired their coach after a 5-7 2017 season, so it’s hard to draw conclusions, but there was no obvious recruiting bump. WVU also had their best season since we left them in the Big East in 2016 finishing 10-3 and #18 in the AP poll, and their borderline magical season is worth review. WVU’s February 2016 class finished #38, their 2017 class signed right after their “magical” season was #51, and their 2018 class signed one year later finished #33. Those are very typical WVU recruiting rankings. Finally, Virginia Tech had their best season of the post-Beamer era in 2016 finishing 10-4 and #16 with a Coastal title. VT’s February 2016 recruiting class finished #49 during the transition to Fuente, their 2017 class signed immediately following Fuente’s first year finished #28 and the year following their 10-win season they signed the #22 class in 2018. So, there was some indication of recruiting momentum, but only a little and it wasn’t special by VT recruiting standards.
2017. The only program worth looking at in 2017 was Northwestern who finished 10-3 and landed at #17 in the final AP poll. NW finished with the #56 class in 2017, #60 class in 2018, and #49 class in 2019. There’s not much you can take away from Northwestern’s recruiting, except that winning has only helped a little.
2018. Washington State had a great 2018 season finishing 11-2 and #10 in the AP poll. Mike Leach is a magician. WSU’s February 2018 class finished #46, their 2019 class signed a few months after their magical season finished #62, and their 2020 class finished #57, following Leach’s departure. I don’t think there’s much that you can take away from WSU’s situation because of the coaching change, but there is still no sign of a recruiting bump. Syracuse also had a magical season in 2018 finishing 10-3 (with a win over WVU in the bowl to get to 10 wins) and #15 in the AP poll. Syracuse’s February 2018 class finished #64, their 2019 class following their magical season finished #64, and their 2020 class finished #54, just before the pandemic set in. Syracuse didn’t get a recruiting bump following their magical season.
2019. Utah had a breakout year going 11-1 in the regular season, won their Division, and finished #16 in the AP poll, easily their best year since joining the Pac-12. Utah’s February 2019 recruiting class finished ranked #60, their 2020 class signed shortly after their magical season finished #31, and their 2021 recruiting class signed one year later finished #37. Since joining the Pac-12 in 2011, Utah’s classes have ranked from #25 to #60 with lots of wild swings between classes, very similar to Pitt. There was no improvement in recruiting following their magical season. Minnesota also had a magical season in 2019 finishing 11-2 and #10 in the final AP poll. Their February 2019 recruiting class finished #41, their 2020 recruiting class signed right after their magical season was #38, and their 2021 recruiting class signed one year later finished #39. Again, there was no identifiable recruiting bump.
2020. 2020 was a very weird year. Iowa State had perhaps its best year ever finishing 9-3 and #9 in the final AP Poll. ISU’s February 2020 recruiting class finished #44, their 2021 recruiting class signed immediately after their 2021 season finished #54, and their 2022 class signed one year later was easily their best in the Rivals era, finishing #28. ISU is one of the best examples of a breakout year producing major recruiting improvement. Similarly, Indiana also had arguably its best season in school history going 6-2 and finishing #12 in the final AP poll. Indiana’s February 2020 recruiting class finished #44, their 2021 class signed after this magical season finished #62, and their 2022 class signed one year later finished #19, easily their best in the Rivals era. Like ISU, this is a rare clear example of a magical season causing an immediate improvement in recruiting.
I looked at the 2012-2020 seasons (2012-2022 recruiting classes) for non-traditional power programs (you can quibble with who I included and excluded) that had a surprise big season where they won at least 10 games and appeared in their championship game, or at least finished in the AP top 15. I excluded SEC teams, because there is relatively little movement in that league and SEC recruiting is a different beast.
I had difficulty deciding whether to include Wisconsin, Baylor, TCU, and OK State, because while they’re not recruiting powers, they have won 10+ games consistently over the last 15+ years. Ultimately, I didn't include them because it’s hard to attribute any recruiting class to a single season (because of the consistent success). But those 4 programs, arguably along with Iowa, are what Pitt should be hoping for. They basically recruit year in and year out at the same 30-40 level, with a few outlier seasons in either direction. Pitt has not recruited as consistently as these programs yet, but we’re not too far off. Narduzzi’s 7 full recruiting classes (2016-2022) have been ranked #29, #38, #36, #49, #44, #21, and #63.
Now to the “magical season” analysis by year:
2012. Kansas State went 11-2 and won the Big 12 championship. The 2012 class signed in February before their 2012 season finished #59, their 2013 class signed a few months after the 2012 season finished #65, and their 2014 class signed a year after their breakout year finished #47. KSU had the #27 class in 2008 and a few classes in the high 30’s and low 40’s in the Rivals era, so the 2012 season didn’t really change their recruiting trajectory, but it did seem to help a little.
2013. Arizona State won the Pac-12 South going 10-4 and finishing #21. Their February 2013 class finished #34, their 2014 class signed a few months after their Pac-12 championship appearance finished #21, and their 2015 class signed after the next season finished #20. It appears that the 2013 season improved recruiting both right away and the following year. Graham followed it up with a (#12, 10-3) 2014 campaign and signed the #32 class in 2016, one year later. The only other “magical season” in 2013 was Duke who went 10-4, won the Coastal, and finished #23. Very impressive for Duke. The class signed in February 2013 finished #67, the 2014 class signed a few months after the magical season finished #58, and the 2015 class finished #62. It’s Duke, so it’s hard to draw conclusions, but the Division title and 10 wins didn’t improve recruiting.
2014. Arizona won the Pac-12 South going 10-4 and finished #19. Their February 2014 class finished #28, their 2015 class signed just after the 2014 season finished #41, and the 2016 class signed a year later finished #51. No recruiting improvement there. Georgia Tech also had a magical 2014 season. GT went 11-3 in the regular season, won the Coastal, and finished #8. By far the high-water mark for the Paul Johnson era. Recruiting to the triple is a little different, but their February 2014 class signed before their magical season finished #47, their 2015 class signed right after finished #39, and their 2016 class finished #67. That 2015 class was the highest of the Johnson era, so presumably that #8 finish had an immediate impact, but didn’t help the next year.
2015. Iowa finished the regular season 12-0, won the Big Ten West, and finished #9 in the AP poll, their best season in a long time. They’ve had a few good years recently, as well. Iowa’s February 2015 class finished #58, their 2016 class just after their magical season finished #42, and their 2017 class finished #40. Iowa has had several classes ranked around #40 under Ferentz, so there was no real improvement following their breakout 2015 season. UNC also had a special year in 2015 finishing the regular season 11-1 and #15 in the final AP with a Coastal title. UNC’s February 2015 class finished #28, their 2016 class signed just after their magical year finished #22, and their 2017 class signed after the next season was #30. UNC went 8-4 in 2016, which isn’t great, but shouldn’t have impacted recruiting too much and they still did not experience a recruiting bump.
2016. Washington won the Pac-12, finished 12-2, made a CFP appearance, and finished #4 in the AP poll. Peterson is one hell of a coach. Washington’s February 2016 recruiting class finished #37, their 2017 class signed shortly after their CFP appearance finished #23, and their 2018 class signed a year after their CFP appearance finished #15. Huge recruiting momentum following their magical 2016 season. Staying in the Pac-12, Colorado also had a magical 2016 season finishing 10-4, winning their Division, and finishing #17 in the AP poll. Colorado’s February 2016 class finished #65, their 2017 class signed right after their magical season finished #32, and their 2018 class signed one year later finished #51. The Buff’s fired their coach after a 5-7 2017 season, so it’s hard to draw conclusions, but there was no obvious recruiting bump. WVU also had their best season since we left them in the Big East in 2016 finishing 10-3 and #18 in the AP poll, and their borderline magical season is worth review. WVU’s February 2016 class finished #38, their 2017 class signed right after their “magical” season was #51, and their 2018 class signed one year later finished #33. Those are very typical WVU recruiting rankings. Finally, Virginia Tech had their best season of the post-Beamer era in 2016 finishing 10-4 and #16 with a Coastal title. VT’s February 2016 recruiting class finished #49 during the transition to Fuente, their 2017 class signed immediately following Fuente’s first year finished #28 and the year following their 10-win season they signed the #22 class in 2018. So, there was some indication of recruiting momentum, but only a little and it wasn’t special by VT recruiting standards.
2017. The only program worth looking at in 2017 was Northwestern who finished 10-3 and landed at #17 in the final AP poll. NW finished with the #56 class in 2017, #60 class in 2018, and #49 class in 2019. There’s not much you can take away from Northwestern’s recruiting, except that winning has only helped a little.
2018. Washington State had a great 2018 season finishing 11-2 and #10 in the AP poll. Mike Leach is a magician. WSU’s February 2018 class finished #46, their 2019 class signed a few months after their magical season finished #62, and their 2020 class finished #57, following Leach’s departure. I don’t think there’s much that you can take away from WSU’s situation because of the coaching change, but there is still no sign of a recruiting bump. Syracuse also had a magical season in 2018 finishing 10-3 (with a win over WVU in the bowl to get to 10 wins) and #15 in the AP poll. Syracuse’s February 2018 class finished #64, their 2019 class following their magical season finished #64, and their 2020 class finished #54, just before the pandemic set in. Syracuse didn’t get a recruiting bump following their magical season.
2019. Utah had a breakout year going 11-1 in the regular season, won their Division, and finished #16 in the AP poll, easily their best year since joining the Pac-12. Utah’s February 2019 recruiting class finished ranked #60, their 2020 class signed shortly after their magical season finished #31, and their 2021 recruiting class signed one year later finished #37. Since joining the Pac-12 in 2011, Utah’s classes have ranked from #25 to #60 with lots of wild swings between classes, very similar to Pitt. There was no improvement in recruiting following their magical season. Minnesota also had a magical season in 2019 finishing 11-2 and #10 in the final AP poll. Their February 2019 recruiting class finished #41, their 2020 recruiting class signed right after their magical season was #38, and their 2021 recruiting class signed one year later finished #39. Again, there was no identifiable recruiting bump.
2020. 2020 was a very weird year. Iowa State had perhaps its best year ever finishing 9-3 and #9 in the final AP Poll. ISU’s February 2020 recruiting class finished #44, their 2021 recruiting class signed immediately after their 2021 season finished #54, and their 2022 class signed one year later was easily their best in the Rivals era, finishing #28. ISU is one of the best examples of a breakout year producing major recruiting improvement. Similarly, Indiana also had arguably its best season in school history going 6-2 and finishing #12 in the final AP poll. Indiana’s February 2020 recruiting class finished #44, their 2021 class signed after this magical season finished #62, and their 2022 class signed one year later finished #19, easily their best in the Rivals era. Like ISU, this is a rare clear example of a magical season causing an immediate improvement in recruiting.
Last edited:
