I do not see how a tourney loss to Wake
- Thread starter gary2
- Start date
I can. It put wakes above Pitt. They already have a higher NET and more quad 1 wins…Now if you are saying wake is already in…
It's impossible to say at this point. It sure as hell makes it much more difficult to keep Pitt out if they win.
I do. It's another must win for Pitt if it wants to be invited to the big dance. However maybe we don't play WF but the winner of the ND GT game.
Well, they beat Pitt in that ugly game at Wake (91-58) after Pitt had won 77-72 in Pittsburgh. Being 1-2 vs Wake vs 2-1 is huge--especially as Wake is already ranked ahead or Pitt. Pitt needs to demonstrate it is better than Wake by being 2-1 vs them.
On the other hand an easier pathe might be if Wake loses their 1st game and Pitt beats ND or GT by double digits before giving (probably UNC) a good game.
Well, they beat Pitt in that ugly game at Wake (91-58) after Pitt had won 77-72 in Pittsburgh. Being 1-2 vs Wake vs 2-1 is huge--especially as Wake is already ranked ahead or Pitt. Pitt needs to demonstrate it is better than Wake by being 2-1 vs them.
On the other hand an easier pathe might be if Wake loses their 1st game and Pitt beats ND or GT by double digits before giving (probably UNC) a good game.
On the other hand an easier pathe might be if Wake loses their 1st game and Pitt beats ND or GT by double digits before giving (probably UNC) a good game.
You can say that again …
Currently both teams have 2 quad 1 wins. I agree with you though that the loser is out
Wake is a different team away from home. I like our chances
Northwestern is supposedly a "lock", 9 seed with essentially the same record. they beat number 1 Purdue at home, but then lost to Chicago State at home. Pitt beat Duke at Duke, and Pitt has a better record over the second half of the season. If we beat Wake, PItt is an 8 seed or 7 seed.
They still have 7 road wins which is tied for 2nd among power conference schools and they are 11-3 in their last 14 games and don’t really have any devastating horrific losses. The human element has to come into play as well here at some point and if you’re on the committee and have watched Pitt play these last 6-7 weeks they clearly pass the eye test of being an NCAA Tournament team.
Wish I could agree with you, but we don’t have any bid stealers yet. There will certainly be a few. Pitt just needs to take care of business Thursday. If they lose, I can’t see how there should be too much crying if they miss the field.
What's more impressive?
Pitt: 7 road wins, 2-6 against Q1, SOS 83
Texas A&M: 6 road wins, 5-6 against Q1, SOS 17
The more I look at some of this, the more I question if we're even close. We may need to pick up two Q1 wins this week. Especially if the Missouri loss becomes Q4. We needed Wake at Home and at NC State to be Q1 wins.
If we play ND or GT and beat them, we'll need to beat UNC to get in the NCAAT. The NIT looks like the most likely landing spot for Pitt in this scenario.
I would not want to play either ND or GT. I want Wake to win.
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Pitt/Wake is a play-in game. The winner is in. Not a lock but very close to it. The loser is going to be sweating bullets. Less than a 50% chance. Maybe as low as a 25% chance. Pitt's quads are terrible. We are a "one trick pony" when it comes to resume: road wins. That's the only thing that differentiates us. All those Big East and MWC teams have loads of Q1 wins that we don't. So if we lose to Wake, we have to hope the committee values road wins.
6 of the 8 7th and 8th seeds are Mountain West or West Coast.
These teams (if lucky) used to be 10 or 11 seeds.
How did things get so whacked?
I’m not sure I understand. We aren’t in now. And beating Wake doesn’t even put us in for certain. Maybe 50-50 to be in if we win, which could go up or down depending on other results.
The loser is out for sure and the winner is sweating bullets unless they win on Friday.
Wake is probably out for sure with a loss. Pitt still has a chance. Not a great chance but we still have the road wins. I doubt there's ever been a team left out with 7 road wins. Now, I wouldn't put money on getting in with a loss but you could make a case for us, especially if Wake can move up from 37 to 30 to give us another Q1.
I have made my case in other threads. I admit it largely ignores metrics.
It focuses on who are the league representatives.
If the ACC gets four or five, I say we are in.
We finished 4th and played the toughest league schedule.
The case is the leagues best teams should represent the league
I’m not trying to agree or disagree with your case. I’m just stating what I’m pretty certain is the actual reality. That is, we are around the 4th to 7th team out right now.
Bracket Matrix isn't even updated yet.
Some of the brackets on bracket Matrix have not been updated in 2 days.
Regardless, we need to beat Wake Forest to get in. That's likely a bare minimum. Get that win, and I think we are probably in.
Yeah, we in on like two brackets, last I checked. We're not as close as the people in this board want to believe, unfortunately.
Road wins. Does the committee put a high value on road wins. The bracketologists do not and that's why they dont have us in.
Agree. If we beat Wake, and that is not a given, we'll probably need to beat another team, probably UNC, to get in and be sure we're in. It's a very fluid situation if we beat Wake.
I'd say right now, our probability of being in before seeing what we'll do in the ACCT is about 25%. That's being very generous. If we beat Wake, it goes to 50%. We'll need another win, or at least a very competitive game against another opponent, to get above a 50% chance of getting into the NCAAT.
I don't understand what people on this board are seeing when they say we're in or we just have to beat Wake to be in. I'd like that to be true. It just isn't reality.
25% if we lose
95% if we win
Right now, Nova, New Mexico, and USF are out. They are all in the BM aggregate brackets.
Last 5 right now is probably something like
SJU
TCU
Pitt
Virginia
Colorado
I think Pitt is ahead of Virginia. Extremely similar resumes and Pitt won head to head. If UVa loses to Clemson, I'm not sure they get in.
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Okay, and A&M has 6... what's the difference? Lunardi said today that no team with a 344 OOC schedule has ever gotten in. You can't single out any one metric.
Because historically that is what the committee has done. Pitt needs to put out proof of Lowe’s injury and treatment. BPI remained at 33 but SOR rose to 45 from 50. The metrics are there.
And no power teams with 7 true road wins have been left out recently. Something has to give. I would argue Pitt had four potential Q1/2 opponents scheduled but they dropped to q3…it wasn’t like they didn’t schedule any power.
Yeah I don't disagree with that. But they're not Q1/2, so it kind of is what it is.
More so than the road wins, I am hoping they use a recency bias. Problem is I think they said they're not doing that this cycle.
I dont think we are in with a loss. But we have a chance due to the road wins. What if Pitt and UVa lose? Do you take UVa?
Pitt's overall SOS is 69. Here's others
67 Ole Miss
71 UVa
72 Boise
76 Colorado State
79 UNM
85 Nevada
111 Drake
Hopefully they look at the whole picture. Something has to give
