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If Oklahoma beats Oklahoma St, Notre Dame will be on the outside of the CFP

UPitt '89

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Clemson
Alabama
Oklahoma
Iowa/MSU winner

Even with a win over Stanford, Notre Dame is out unless OKSt beats Oklahoma or UNC beats Clemson or Florida beats Alabama.

Now.... imagine if ND was in the ACC. They would then have one more game... against Clemson in the ACC title game... a rematch on a neutral field. A game that would propel them into the CFP with a win.

I'm telling you.... if Notre Dame goes 11-1 and ends up #5 and misses out on the playoff.... the alumni will become MUCH more agreeable to giving up their independent status and join the ACC.

And the reason it would be the ACC? Notre Dame signed an agreement with the ACC that if Notre Dame joins *ANY* conference before 2027, it *HAS* to be the ACC. This was the brilliant part of Swofford's plan. ND gets into the ACC for all non-football sports, guarantees at least 5 games per year against the ACC in football... in exchange for the agreement that they can't join any OTHER conference before 2027 for football.

the 5+ games per year against ACC competition already is getting the ND alumni used to the idea of playing an ACC schedule. It would be very non-disruptive to their schedule to replace three of their other games with ACC games.

And them getting left out of the CFP this year will push many of the alumni over the edge and keep the momentum going for the Irish to join the ACC full time.

Of course Swofford will allow them to keep their NBC deal for home games. So they'll still have their own private deal for that part... at least for a while.

And the momentum is there for Notre Dame to bring Navy in as the 16th member as well. Navy brings back the Maryland TV audience that was lost with the Terps move..... it keeps a team on ND's schedule that they play every year, thus making the transition easier.... and Navy is a quality G5 football program. Right in the heart of the ACC footprint. Navy sucks in hoops... but that's a small price to pay.

Notre Dame joins the Coastal... Navy joins the Atlantic.... conference moves to 9 game schedule... ND-Navy are cross-over rivals.
 
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Not necessarily true at all. The rankings you see now are essentially meaningless, the committee can choose to do whatever they want with their final decision.

Last year TCU was ranked #3 in the next to last rankings, won by 52, and somehow amanaged to be dropped all the way to #6. I hope it doesn't happen as I'm holding a futures ticket on Oklahoma, but would not be surprised at all to see them win out and still get moved back.
 
ALL AND ANY TEAMS THAT HAVE ONLY ONE LOSS AND DOES NOT PLAY A 13TH GAME, SHOULD BE BEHIND TEAMS THAT HAVE 1 LOSS BUT PLAYED A 13TH GAME!

ND NEEDS TO JOIN A CONFERENCE AND BIG-12 TEAMS NEED TO PLAY A 13TH CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME!!!
 
Not necessarily true at all. The rankings you see now are essentially meaningless, the committee can choose to do whatever they want with their final decision.

Last year TCU was ranked #3 in the next to last rankings, won by 52, and somehow amanaged to be dropped all the way to #6. I hope it doesn't happen as I'm holding a futures ticket on Oklahoma, but would not be surprised at all to see them win out and still get moved back.
You're right it isn't a sure thing.... but a win by Oklahoma at OK State is of equal quality as a ND win at Stanford.

I doubt very much the committee will drop Oklahoma behind ND with a win.... unless ND obliterates Stanford by double digits.

Then ND's only chance is if UNC upsets Clemson or Florida upsets Alabama.

Last year... it took OSU totally obliterating Wisconsin in the B1G title game to get them ahead of idle TCU. ND won't have that opportunity.

The committee has already decided, by this weeks rankings, that they consider Oklahoma slightly ahead of ND and both teams play an equivalent opponent on the road. It is both teams last game. ND desperately needs the Cowboys to win.
 
You had me until this... There's no way that happens.

Well... the Navy part of the scenario is admittedly iffy. But Notre Dame being pressured to join the conference if they are left out of the playoff with an 11-1 record - that's speculation, but it isn't without merit.

If Notre Dame goes 11-1, but is left out of the four team playoff.... it will explicitly be because they didn't win a conference title. I guarantee that will be the discussion in two weeks.

And the wheels will be turning as to how to best join the ACC as a full member, while maintaining:

1. Notre Dame's deal with NBC for their home games
2. Notre Dame's games with USC and Stanford and Navy every year.

The second item would almost require that the ACC stays with an 8-game conference schedule, giving ND at least one spot to throw in a cupcake OOC game.

The first item is doable. The ACC would gladly accept ND's TV rights for all their away games and let them keep the NBC contract for their home games. They'll find a way to make it work.
 
You're right it isn't a sure thing.... but a win by Oklahoma at OK State is of equal quality as a ND win at Stanford.

I doubt very much the committee will drop Oklahoma behind ND with a win.... unless ND obliterates Stanford by double digits.

Then ND's only chance is if UNC upsets Clemson or Florida upsets Alabama.

Last year... it took OSU totally obliterating Wisconsin in the B1G title game to get them ahead of idle TCU. ND won't have that opportunity.

The committee has already decided, by this weeks rankings, that they consider Oklahoma slightly ahead of ND and both teams play an equivalent opponent on the road. It is both teams last game. ND desperately needs the Cowboys to win.
Of course the committee can change its mind, but it has set the bar at what must be done. Oklahoma has a big game against a rival, big time foe. ND has a big time game against a big time foe. IF, both OK and ND win and the order remains the same the message will be clear....the only thing worse than not having a conference championship is not being in a conference.
I don't presume to know how ND will respond to that scenario, but I do know they won't be happy about it.
I call that a win/win.
 
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Notre Dame will just push for an 8 team playoff. And they will get it.

You could be right about that...... but even in an 8-team playoff, an "independent" only has one opportunity to make the dance - as one of the three at-large teams. A team in a conference has two chances... as a conference winner OR as an at-large.

A conference winner could theoretically make the dance with 3 or 4 losses. An at-large team would need to have 2 or less to be considered, and likely would need 1 or less.

But I think an 8-team playoff is eventually coming. The problem is that the TV deal for the 4-team playoff is pretty lengthy and will be hard to change sooner than 10 years or so.
 
Clemson
Alabama
Oklahoma
Iowa/MSU winner

Even with a win over Stanford, Notre Dame is out unless OKSt beats Oklahoma or UNC beats Clemson or Florida beats Alabama.

Now.... imagine if ND was in the ACC. They would then have one more game... against Clemson in the ACC title game... a rematch on a neutral field. A game that would propel them into the CFP with a wi
I'm telling you.... if Notre Dame goes 11-1 and ends up #5 and misses out on the playoff.... the alumni will become MUCH more agreeable to giving up their independent status and join the ACC.

And the reason it would be the ACC? Notre Dame signed an agreement with the ACC that if Notre Dame joins *ANY* conference before 2027, it *HAS* to be the ACC. This was the brilliant part of Swofford's plan. ND gets into the ACC for all non-football sports, guarantees at least 5 games per year against the ACC in football... in exchange for the agreement that they can't join any OTHER conference before 2027 for football.

the 5+ games per year against ACC competition already is getting the ND alumni used to the idea of playing an ACC schedule. It would be very non-disruptive to their schedule to replace three of their other games with ACC games.

And them getting left out of the CFP this year will push many of the alumni over the edge and keep the momentum going for the Irish to join the ACC full time.

Of course Swofford will allow them to keep their NBC deal for home games. So they'll still have their own private deal for that part... at least for a while.

And the momentum is there for Notre Dame to bring Navy in as the 16th member as well. Navy brings back the Maryland TV audience that was lost with the Terps move..... it keeps a team on ND's schedule that they play every year, thus making the transition easier.... and Navy is a quality G5 football program. Right in the heart of the ACC footprint. Navy sucks in hoops... but that's a small price to pay.

Notre Dame joins the Coastal... Navy joins the Atlantic.... conference moves to 9 game schedule... ND-Navy are cross-over rivals.

If OKState beats OU the Cowboys might be in. OKState beating OU has to count more than a ND win over 2 loss Stanford. And ND barely squeaking by BC isn't going to help the Domers. The way I see it Clemson is in with a win. Bama is in with a win. The BIG winner will be in. The OU/OKSt winner will be in. The biggest potential fly in this ointment will be a UNC win over Clemson. The final 4 will be interesting to see if that happens.
 
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You're right it isn't a sure thing.... but a win by Oklahoma at OK State is of equal quality as a ND win at Stanford.

I doubt very much the committee will drop Oklahoma behind ND with a win.... unless ND obliterates Stanford by double digits.

Then ND's only chance is if UNC upsets Clemson or Florida upsets Alabama.

Last year... it took OSU totally obliterating Wisconsin in the B1G title game to get them ahead of idle TCU. ND won't have that opportunity.

The committee has already decided, by this weeks rankings, that they consider Oklahoma slightly ahead of ND and both teams play an equivalent opponent on the road. It is both teams last game. ND desperately needs the Cowboys to win.

So you are saying a ND win over 2 loss Stanford is equal to an OU win over 1 loss OKState? I'm not getting that one. I think a 3 point win over BC last week will stick out like a sore thumb for the Domers.
 
OU is basically getting rewarded for the B12 getting shut out last year and for playing an obviously concussed player.

ND will get jobbed if the beat Stanford and there aren't any upsets which doesn't make sense. They have one of, if not the most difficult schedules of the top 8 or 10.
 
If OKState beats OU the Cowboys most likely will be in. The way I see it Clemson is in with a win. Bama is in with a win. The BIG winner will be in. The OU/OKSt winner will be in. The biggest potential fly in this ointment will be a UNC win over Clemson. The final 4 will be interesting to see if that happens.

I think OKSt needs Stanford to beat the Irish. OKSt is #11, Notre Dame is #6. A Notre Dame win AT #9 Stanford is more impressive than an OKSt win over #3 Oklahoma at home. And even if you consider them equivalent..... 5 spots is an awful big hill to climb.

The Big 12 is secretly very much hoping that the Sooners win. Because a Cowboys win, coupled with a Notre Dame win, probably keeps the Big 12 out of the playoffs for the second straight year.
 
Notre Dame will just push for an 8 team playoff. And they will get it.
That is the damn shame, although I am for expanding the playoffs. The shame is that teams can get screwed over for years, but it happens to Notre Dame once and their better be changes made ASAP. I really think Notre Dame is better than Oklahoma, but after reading posts on this thread, I gotta agree now that it'd be pretty hard to put them in over the other 1 loss teams that all played 13 games.
 
So you are saying a ND win over 2 loss Stanford is equal to an OU win over 1 loss OKState? I'm not getting that one. I think a 3 point win over BC last week will stick out like a sore thumb for the Domers.

Yes. The committee already has 2-loss Stanford slightly higher rated than 1-loss OK State. You can't go by the loss count. The committee says Stanford is #9 and OK State is #11. A road win at either place is essentially equivalent.

And since it is essentially equivalent.... if both Oklahoma and ND win, ND isn't going to jump three spots to go ahead of Oklahoma. Unless ND completely annihilates Stanford by 35+ or something and Oklahoma squeaks out a close win.

These teams control their own destiny:

Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma, Iowa, and MSU. That's it. Everybody else needs some help.
 
College football is always better when Notre Dame is LEFT OUT. Because when they are in, I always assume it must be because of their name. Having them selected EVER, gives an appearance of impropriety. The assumption is, there are others equal or better than them, they just get the nod because of popularity, TV ratings or ticket sales.
 
OU is basically getting rewarded for the B12 getting shut out last year and for playing an obviously concussed player.

ND will get jobbed if the beat Stanford and there aren't any upsets which doesn't make sense. They have one of, if not the most difficult schedules of the top 8 or 10.

This is a myth. Right now, Notre Dame's best win is Navy. Second and third best wins are Temple and Pitt.

Their schedule is tough.... but when your signature win on the season is Navy, the schedule is misleading. If they win at Stanford, that's a big-time quality win. But so would Oklahoma winning at OK State. The committee has already decided that Oklahoma is better than Notre Dame to this point..... so if both teams win this week (ND against #9 and Oklahoma against #11), it is hard to imagine the committee jumping ND three spots over Oklahoma.

ND needs to win.... and then have one of the top 3 lose..... Clemson to SC or UNC, Alabama to Auburn or Florida, or Oklahoma to OK State.
 
I really can't stand teams getting passes for their losses. Notre Dame lost by 2 to Clemson, Oklahoma lost to a really down Texas team. The Big 12 was left out last year because they don't have a championship game, I'd leave them out again this year if it's Oklahoma and Notre Dame that's being debated. Otherwise they're saying you can't play a bad game and win close, but you can have a bad game and lose without being punished.
 
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Well... the Navy part of the scenario is admittedly iffy. But Notre Dame being pressured to join the conference if they are left out of the playoff with an 11-1 record - that's speculation, but it isn't without merit.

If Notre Dame goes 11-1, but is left out of the four team playoff.... it will explicitly be because they didn't win a conference title. I guarantee that will be the discussion in two weeks.

And the wheels will be turning as to how to best join the ACC as a full member, while maintaining:

1. Notre Dame's deal with NBC for their home games
2. Notre Dame's games with USC and Stanford and Navy every year.

The second item would almost require that the ACC stays with an 8-game conference schedule, giving ND at least one spot to throw in a cupcake OOC game.

The first item is doable. The ACC would gladly accept ND's TV rights for all their away games and let them keep the NBC contract for their home games. They'll find a way to make it work.

You crack me up. Still beating the ND to the ACC drum. If ND is left out it will be because there are four teams better than them.
 
I really can't stand teams getting passes for their losses. Notre Dame lost by 2 to Clemson, Oklahoma lost to a really down Texas team. The Big 12 was left out last year because they don't have a championship game, I'd leave them out again this year if it's Oklahoma and Notre Dame that's being debated. Otherwise they're saying you can't play a bad game and win close, but you can have a bad game and lose without being punished.

A part of me wants the B12 to be left out again. I want them to be forced to add two teams to get a CCG... or to cause Oklahoma and/or Texas to want to jump to the B1G or ACC or even SEC. The B12 being left out twice in a row would have a stabilizing effect on conference realignment, which would be good for us.

Another part of me wants Notre Dame to be left out. And for the committee to state that the primary reason was that they weren't a conference winner. That would put some pressure on ND to either join the ACC, or to push hard for an 8-team playoff. Either of which is good for the ACC. An 8-team playoff is ALSO a stabilizing factor on conference realignment.
 
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A part of me wants the B12 to be left out again. I want them to be forced to add two teams to get a CCG... or to cause Oklahoma and/or Texas to want to jump to the B1G or ACC or even SEC. The B12 being left out twice in a row would have a stabilizing effect on conference realignment, which would be good for us.

Another part of me wants Notre Dame to be left out. And for the committee to state that the primary reason was that they weren't a conference winner. That would put some pressure on ND to either join the ACC, or to push hard for an 8-team playoff. Either of which is good for the ACC. An 8-team playoff is ALSO a stabilizing factor on conference realignment.
Any of those would be great IMO. Big 12 falling apart or getting a championship game, ND forced to join a conference, or an 8 team playoff. I think all three need to happen eventually, and college football would be much better when they do.
 
You crack me up. Still beating the ND to the ACC drum. If ND is left out it will be because there are four teams better than them.

That's correct. But the ND faithful won't see it that way. They'll see correctly that... if only they had that 13th game (the ACC title game), they would have that extra opportunity to impress the committee and jump Oklahoma. Without it, they have no chance.

The Irish faithful will clamor *HARD* for one of two things to happen if they are left out of the playoff at 11-1...... A) an 8-team playoff or B) to join a conference. Only "B" is entirely within their control.
 
I really can't stand teams getting passes for their losses. Notre Dame lost by 2 to Clemson, Oklahoma lost to a really down Texas team. The Big 12 was left out last year because they don't have a championship game, I'd leave them out again this year if it's Oklahoma and Notre Dame that's being debated. Otherwise they're saying you can't play a bad game and win close, but you can have a bad game and lose without being punished.

Big 12 was also left out because their OOC is terrible and the conference is pretty much a joke. OU's best wins are Baylor and TCU.....wow.....somebody explain to me why the Big 12 gets any respect?
 
Big 12 was also left out because their OOC is terrible and the conference is pretty much a joke. OU's best wins are Baylor and TCU.....wow.....somebody explain to me why the Big 12 gets any respect?
This year yes, and why I don't think Oklahoma should even be able to make a case for getting in over Notre Dame. Last year though, kudos to Ohio State, they were the best team by year's end. But, judging by the regular season, Ohio State was not that impressive and lost to a VT team in September that everybody else seemed to be able to beat. Baylor and TCU had far better regular seasons than Ohio State last year. I think 4 teams is just too much confusion and it needs to get to at least an 8 team playoff.
 
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I'm not in favor of an eight team playoff. With four teams, every year there are going to be one or two teams complaining they didn't get the 4th spot. With eight teams, you are going to have a bunch of teams complaining about not getting the 7th or 8th spot.
 
I'm not in favor of an eight team playoff. With four teams, every year there are going to be one or two teams complaining they didn't get the 4th spot. With eight teams, you are going to have a bunch of teams complaining about not getting the 7th or 8th spot.
Valid point. I'd say if the number is 8 though - you have the 5 P5 conference champs, the top mid major school (has to be a conference champ), then 2 wild cards if you will with Notre Dame automatically being one if they are ranked in the top 8. There will no doubt be arguments, but at least none of them will be from P5 conference champions. Also, the Big 12 in this case should be forced to add 2 teams and have a conference championship game. Tell them get it done no matter what, whether you have to pick up 2 awful mid-major cupcakes because nobody else wants to join or not. Not having a conference championship game in 2015 for a P5 conference is totally absurd.
 
I'm not in favor of an eight team playoff. With four teams, every year there are going to be one or two teams complaining they didn't get the 4th spot. With eight teams, you are going to have a bunch of teams complaining about not getting the 7th or 8th spot.

Whether we're in favor of it or not is not really important. If the powers that be conclude that they'll make more money with an 8-team playoff than with a 4-team playoff, there will be an 8-team playoff.

Also.... since each of the P5 conferences would be guaranteed a spot, there will be little room for complaints. Each team will have a path to the playoff that they 100% completely control.... win their conference. If you guarantee 1 spot to the highest-rated G5 team - then every FBS team will have a path to the playoffs.
 
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Clemson is irrelevant to ND. 11-1 ND isnt getting in over 12-1 Clemson, who beat them head to head.

They need to root for Bama to lose but if Florida beats FSU and Bama, they definitely are in the CFP.

11-1 ND gets in over 11-1 OKST but not 11-1 OU. OU would have victories over OKST, Baylor, TCU, and a good OOC win at Tennessee. ND would have a better loss but not enough good wins (Stanford, Navy, Temple, Pitt, USC). ND really needs a Navy/Temple AAC champ game, a Pitt win over Miami, and a USC win over Oregon.

OKST would only have 2 good wins, OU and TCU, both at home. They aint gettin in.

Iowa winning the BT after losing to Nebraska would be huge for them as would Mich repping the East.
 
They need to root for Bama to lose but if Florida beats FSU and Bama, they definitely are in the CFP.
I would just give up on college football at that point. No doubt that'd be two huge wins, and actually I don't think Florida stands a chance against Bama and probably will get beat by FSU as well as long as the 'Noles get it back together. I just think Florida has looked incredibly weak this season for a 1 loss team.
 
Whether we're in favor of it or not is not really important. If the powers that be conclude that they'll make more money with an 8-team playoff than with a 4-team playoff, there will be an 8-team playoff.

Also.... since each of the P5 conferences would be guaranteed a spot, there will be little room for complaints. Each team will have a path to the playoff that they 100% completely control.... win their conference. If you guarantee 1 spot to the highest-rated G5 team - then every FBS team will have a path to the playoffs.

I agree with your first paragraph. Partially agree with your second paragraph. Every conference winner getting in is fine, but there will be a lot of complaints about not getting an at large berth when you start having one- or two-loss division winners beating an undefeated or one-loss division winner in the conference champoinship games.
 
I agree with your first paragraph. Partially agree with your second paragraph. Every conference winner getting in is fine, but there will be a lot of complaints about not getting an at large berth when you start having one- or two-loss division winners beating an undefeated or one-loss division winner in the conference champoinship games.
I agree with you as well. But to complain about that is a moot point IMO. Win your conference championship game and you won't have to worry about being snubbed. It would at least be in your control.
 
Imagine if there was an 8 team playoff this year with the 5 conference champs getting in. Suppose NC and Clemson lose this week and NC wins the ACC chamionship game, Florida beats Alabama in the SEC and Michigan St beats an undeafeated Iowa. If ND beats Stanford they get one at-large berth, there are going to be a lot of teams claiming they should get one of the other two.
 
Imagine if there was an 8 team playoff this year with the 5 conference champs getting in. Suppose NC and Clemson lose this week and NC wins the ACC chamionship game, Florida beats Alabama in the SEC and Michigan St beats an undeafeated Iowa. If ND beats Stanford they get one at-large berth, there are going to be a lot of teams claiming they should get one of the other two.
There would be, but they also all blew their chance of getting in. As it is now, it is much worse than what 8 teams would be. Ohio State proved they were the best team last year, but had a pretty weak argument for why they should have been #4. With the conference champions getting in, every team controls their own playoff destiny. Those teams in the situation you proposed could complain all they want, but most of them could've just won their conference and avoided putting their destiny in the committee's hands.

No question there will always be debate in this. But it is almost ridiculous as it stands not so much to leave out a conference champion like say the Big 12 that has no championship game, but to just have to sit there and analyze what conference is the weakest. I would not even be opposed to not giving a G5 champion an automatic bid to the playoffs in an 8 team playoff, but 8 teams would be much better than 4. Even if they could do something like MLB with the one game wild-card and just have all 5 P5 champions in the playoffs would be much better. That would also force Notre Dame to join a conference.
 
I agree with you as well. But to complain about that is a moot point IMO. Win your conference championship game and you won't have to worry about being snubbed. It would at least be in your control.

I'm definitely not complaining. I think it would be quite amusing to see everything in disarray. I said I wouldn't be in favor of an eight team playoff, but that was just in regard to fairness. If Pitt is not involved I really don't care what kind of chaos ensues.
 
I'm definitely not complaining. I think it would be quite amusing to see everything in disarray. I said I wouldn't be in favor of an eight team playoff, but that was just in regard to fairness. If Pitt is not involved I really don't care what kind of chaos ensues.
Oh I did not mean you complaining. I was referring to a team in that situation complaining about not getting in when they had the opportunity to just win their conference and avoid having to lobby to get themselves in.
 
Imagine if there was an 8 team playoff this year with the 5 conference champs getting in. Suppose NC and Clemson lose this week and NC wins the ACC chamionship game, Florida beats Alabama in the SEC and Michigan St beats an undeafeated Iowa. If ND beats Stanford they get one at-large berth, there are going to be a lot of teams claiming they should get one of the other two.

That's true. But the difference is that all of those teams that are claiming they should get one of the other two..... will have had their destiny in their OWN hands. Win your conference. Every team has that capability and needs *NO* help from any other team in order to accomplish it.

In any case.... an 8-team playoff would look something like this (assuming the favorites win all games the next two weeks.... Michigan over OSU, Stanford over ND and USC, OU over OkSU, Baylor over TCU, MSU over PSU and Iowa, Alabama over UF, Clemson over UNC):

Navy (#8, G5 auto-bid) at Clemson (#1, ACC champ)
Michigan (#7, at-large) at Alabama (#2, SEC champ)
Baylor (#6, at-large) at Michigan State (#3, B1G champ)
Stanford (#5, P12 champ) at Oklahoma (#4, B12 champ)

Reseed after these games.... Highest remaining against lowest remaining in one semi, other two remaining in the other semi (Orange and Cotton bowls this year).

Yes.... 1-loss Iowa would bitch.... so would 2-loss UNC, 2-loss UF, 2-loss ND, and 2-loss tOSU. But each would've had the opportunity to get in by simply winning their final game. Nobody to blame but themselves.

The first round games would be at the home stadiums of the higher seeds. This:

A. Rewards the 4 higher seeds
B. Means fans won't have to travel three times. The "neutral" fields would be reserved for the Final Four.
C. First round games played the week after the CCGs. December 14th. Leaves 17 days until the semifinals.
 
I agree that teams have their destiny in their own hands, so they should not complain. But upsets do happen, and if you are a fan of an undefeated team that gets upset by a team with two losses in your conference championship game and doesn't get in the playoff, you are probably going to be pretty unhappy watching three other one loss teams getting at-large berths.
 
I like it at 4. But those last Champ games weigh a lot in everyone's minds good or bad. The committee can't mentally look at them in a vacuum.
 
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