If UNC beats Clemson, are they in?

[Sean Miller Fan]

OU is in
Iowa/MSU is in
Lets assume Bama takes care of the Gators

If UNC beats Clemson, they would be the 9-0 ACC champ with a 12 game winning streak. However, Clemson would be their only Top 25 win. Their only other decent wins were over Pitt, Miami, Duke and NCSU, teams that would rank in the 30s or 40s. Is that enough?

If Stanford beats USC, they'd be 11-2 with better wins.

OSU would be 11-1 but, like UNC a weak schedule with only one good win.

I personally think UNC is in with a win. I dont see how you can take a 2 loss Stanford over them even though they had the tougher schedule or OSU, a team with a similar resume who didnt win their division.

 

[upj87]

no, next question....

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

no, next question....

Who and why?

 

[UPitt '89]

OU is in
Iowa/MSU is in
Lets assume Bama takes care of the Gators

If UNC beats Clemson, they would be the 9-0 ACC champ with a 12 game winning streak. However, Clemson would be their only Top 25 win. Their only other decent wins were over Pitt, Miami, Duke and NCSU, teams that would rank in the 30s or 40s. Is that enough?

If Stanford beats USC, they'd be 11-2 with better wins.

OSU would be 11-1 but, like UNC a weak schedule with only one good win.

I personally think UNC is in with a win. I dont see how you can take a 2 loss Stanford over them even though they had the tougher schedule or OSU, a team with a similar resume who didnt win their division.

I think given that scenario.... the committee would give a slight edge to 11-2 Stanford over 12-1 UNC.

A. Both would be conference champs, making that a wash.
B. Stanford would have 11 FBS wins.... North Carolina would only have 10 FBS wins.
C. Stanford played the 16th hardest schedule in FBS this season to date, UNC played the 63rd hardest. Even with a win over Clemson... Stanford schedule strength would be 30+ spots higher than UNC's.
D. Stanford OOC schedule against P5 teams included Northwestern and Notre Dame. Two 10-win teams. UNC's OOC schedule against P5 teams included S. Carolina and Illinois. Two teams with 5 or less wins.

The fact that Stanford would have more FBS wins.... likely 5 wins against ranked teams compared to UNC's 1.... I think would barely trump UNC's win over Clemson.

In that scenario... I think Stanford ends up #4 and UNC ends up #5.

Ironically, Clemson would have a better case against Stanford than UNC....but would lose out on the whole "conference champion" preference thing.

 

[Pghfan]

Cut and pasted from an article. Not mine. but gives an opinion on the Heels.

Two of North Carolina's wins came against FCS opponents, and the Tar Heels also have a loss against a team that fell to The Citadel, South Carolina. Those are not the credentials of a Playoff team.

 

[UPitt '89]

Bottom line. UNC must win and root for USC, in my view.

 

[VAPITTALUM]

OU is in
Iowa/MSU is in
Lets assume Bama takes care of the Gators

If UNC beats Clemson, they would be the 9-0 ACC champ with a 12 game winning streak. However, Clemson would be their only Top 25 win. Their only other decent wins were over Pitt, Miami, Duke and NCSU, teams that would rank in the 30s or 40s. Is that enough?

If Stanford beats USC, they'd be 11-2 with better wins.

OSU would be 11-1 but, like UNC a weak schedule with only one good win.

I personally think UNC is in with a win. I dont see how you can take a 2 loss Stanford over them even though they had the tougher schedule or OSU, a team with a similar resume who didnt win their division.

I don't agree with this. If UNC was to upset Clemson, they would have the most impressive win of the two teams, with one less loss. Stanford will be playing an 8-4 #24 USC team in the PAC 12 championship, while you have a match up #1 Clemson against a #8 UNC. The committee cares how you finish the season. An upset of the #1 in the country, with a conference championship, on a 12-game winning streak, would be enough to push UNC in the #4 spot.

The committee simply cannot keep Ohio State ahead of UNC if they win the conference, while OSU lost their chance last week.

 

[ThePanthers]

I think given that scenario.... the committee would give a slight edge to 11-2 Stanford over 12-1 UNC.

A. Both would be conference champs, making that a wash.
B. Stanford would have 11 FBS wins.... North Carolina would only have 10 FBS wins.
C. Stanford played the 16th hardest schedule in FBS this season to date, UNC played the 63rd hardest. Even with a win over Clemson... Stanford schedule strength would be 30+ spots higher than UNC's.
D. Stanford OOC schedule against P5 teams included Northwestern and Notre Dame. Two 10-win teams. UNC's OOC schedule against P5 teams included S. Carolina and Illinois. Two teams with 5 or less wins.

The fact that Stanford would have more FBS wins.... likely 5 wins against ranked teams compared to UNC's 1.... I think would barely trump UNC's win over Clemson.

In that scenario... I think Stanford ends up #4 and UNC ends up #5.

Ironically, Clemson would have a better case against Stanford than UNC....but would lose out on the whole "conference champion" preference thing.

Pretty much this.

I think it would be very close, but I think the edge would go to Stanford for the reasons you state above.

And like you said, I think Clemson would still have a better resume than both, but because they didn't win their CCG, the edge would go to Stanford as well.

With this new college FB playoff, people need to look at things differently. And until all of the games are played, you can't write anyone off. Happened with tOSU last year, and could very well happen to Stanford this year if the cards fall right.

 

[NTOP]

OU is in
Iowa/MSU is in
Lets assume Bama takes care of the Gators

If UNC beats Clemson, they would be the 9-0 ACC champ with a 12 game winning streak. However, Clemson would be their only Top 25 win. Their only other decent wins were over Pitt, Miami, Duke and NCSU, teams that would rank in the 30s or 40s. Is that enough?

If Stanford beats USC, they'd be 11-2 with better wins.

OSU would be 11-1 but, like UNC a weak schedule with only one good win.

I personally think UNC is in with a win. I dont see how you can take a 2 loss Stanford over them even though they had the tougher schedule or OSU, a team with a similar resume who didnt win their division.

OSU would get the nod....and deserve it.

 

[UPitt '89]

OSU would get the nod....and deserve it.

The committee has already said they put a premium on conference championships. And right now, OSU only has 1 win against a ranked team and a schedule strength of 61st. Here's OSU's OOC schedule this year:

Virginia Tech, Hawaii, Northern Illinois, and Western Michigan.

They played 2 ranked teams.... MSU and Michigan... and went 1-1 against them.

Ohio State has zero chance of making the playoff unless Alabama, Clemson, *AND* Stanford lose.

 

[pittdan77]

Why does a one loss Alabama team get in over UNC? Look at Alabama's schedule. The "vaunted" SEC?

 

[UPitt '89]

Why does a one loss Alabama team get in over UNC? Look at Alabama's schedule. The "vaunted" SEC?

Alabama's schedule strength: 5th

UNC's schedule strenghth: 63rd


Not only is Alabama in with a win.... they are likely #2 (or even #1) seed.

Alabama would have played 7 ranked teams, and gone 6-1 against them.

It's not even a question. Alabama is a lock with a win.

 

[ThePanthers]

Why does a one loss Alabama team get in over UNC? Look at Alabama's schedule. The "vaunted" SEC?

Stop looking at the number of losses. Look at the overall resume and also the "eye test" as well. That is what the committee looks at.

It will take a few years, but people will one day figure it out.

 

[ThePanthers]

UPitt'89 gets it.

 

[UPitt '89]

Stop looking at the number of losses. Look at the overall resume and also the "eye test" as well. That is what the committee looks at.

It will take a few years, but people will one day figure it out.

Not to mention... the computers have Alabama as #1. This isn't SEC bias. They played the 5th hardest schedule in the country and are 11-1 against it.

 

[pittdan77]

Stop looking at the number of losses. Look at the overall resume and also the "eye test" as well. That is what the committee looks at.

It will take a few years, but people will one day figure it out.

Then do an eye test on Alabama's schedule. Who the heck did they beat? Right now their best win looks like Tennessee. If UNC beats Clemson, they will have one gigantic win that's better than anything Alabama did this year.

 

[UPitt '89]

Then do an eye test on Alabama's schedule. Who the heck did they beat? Right now their best win looks like Tennessee. If UNC beats Clemson, they will have one gigantic win that's better than anything Alabama did this year.

Games against top-30 ranked teams (using Sagarin rankings, not polls):

Alabama:
#23 Wisconsin (win)
#9 Mississippi (loss)
#24 Georgia (win)
#21 Arkansas (win)
#16 Tennessee (win)
#18 LSU (win)
#27 Mississippi State (win)
#20 Florida (win - presumed)

UNC:
#4 Clemson (win - presumed)

That's it. UNC has played against exactly *ZERO* top 30 teams to date. Pitt has been their toughest opponent to date, at #34.

There's no universe in which 1-loss UNC will get in over 1-loss Alabama. There are universes in which BOTH get in.... but none in which UNC will be ahead of Alabama.

UNC needs to win..... and pray for a Stanford *OR* Alabama loss.

 

[ThePanthers]

Then do an eye test on Alabama's schedule. Who the heck did they beat? Right now their best win looks like Tennessee. If UNC beats Clemson, they will have one gigantic win that's better than anything Alabama did this year.

LSU is ranked, Wisconsin is ranked, and their loss was to a ranked Ole Miss.

 

[UPitt '89]

Here's another way of putting it. If you were to throw all of UNC's and Alabama's wins together.... and then rank the top 10, it would look like this:

1. UNC over Clemson (presumed)
2. Alabama over Tennessee
3. Alabama over LSU
4. Alabama over Florida (presumed)
5. Alabama over Arkansas
6. Alabama over Wisconsin
7. Alabama over Georgia
8. Alabama over Mississippi State
9. Alabama over Texas A&M
10. UNC over Pitt

Alabama would have 8 wins that are better than UNC's second best win.

Alabama's loss is to #9 Mississippi. UNC's loss is to #71 South Carolina.

 

[Pghfan]

OSU is sitting pretty, well as pretty as you can be outside looking in. Think they get in if either Clemson loses or bama loses.. Gators looked bad though, cant see them knocking off Bama.. ACC fans should really hope for a Clemson win.

 

[upj87]

Who and why?

Ohio State as they are the better team...

 

[ThePanthers]

OSU is sitting pretty, well as pretty as you can be outside looking in. Think they get in if either Clemson loses or bama loses.. Gators looked bad though, cant see them knocking off Bama.. ACC fans should really hope for a Clemson win.

I still think Stanford would get in over them if they win and Clemson loses.

I personally think their only shot is if UNC, USC, AND Florida all win.

But I do think UNC, Stanford and tOSU would all be very close and that would be the major decision for the committee.

 

[UPitt '89]

Ohio State as they are the better team...

Ohio State wouldn't even be ahead of Stanford, given SMF's scenario.

Ohio State is a mere 1-1 against ranked teams. Played one of the easiest schedule in all of P5 (ranked 61st), and still didn't win their division.

Ohio State needs a lot of things to go their way this week.... Mainly, they need Alabama and Stanford to lose - because they won't be ahead of the ACC champ, whoever it is.

 

[UPitt '89]

OSU is sitting pretty, well as pretty as you can be outside looking in. Think they get in if either Clemson loses or bama loses.. Gators looked bad though, cant see them knocking off Bama.. ACC fans should really hope for a Clemson win.

ACC fans should hope for a Clemson win..... but the reason is not because of Ohio State getting in.... it is because Stanford would get in.

Ohio State has no chance to be ahead of Stanford if Stanford wins this week.

Ohio State needs Stanford and Alabama to lose. If only one loses, Ohio State is out. Played the weakest schedule of every team in the top 15.... and only 1 ranked win. And didn't win their division.

The reason OSU got in last year (conference champ) is the reason they won't this year (didn't even play in conference champ game).

 

[ThePanthers]

Agree on all accounts UPitt'89.

If you want an ACC team in 100%, root hard for Clemson.

To me, if Stanford wins, they are in, not UNC. It would be close, but I think Stanford gets the edge.

Now if USC wins, then I think either UNC or Clemson are in.

 

[UPitt '89]

Here's how I see it.

Let's presume the B1G champ is in.

There 7 scenarios, ranked by most likely to least likely.

The percentages are based on the probabilities of each event occurring, based on Sagarin and ESPN FPI rankings. According to those, Alabama has a 78% chance of winning, Clemson has a 59% chance of winning, and Stanford has a 50% chance of winning.

Scenario 1 (46% chance): Clemson and Alabama win (Stanford game irrelevant)

#1 Clemson
#2 Alabama
#3 Oklahoma
#4 MSU/Iowa

Scenario 2 (16% chance): Alabama and Stanford win, Clemson loses

#1 Alabama
#2 Oklahoma
#3 MSU/Iowa
#4 Stanford

Scenario 3 (16% chance): Alabama wins, Clemson and Stanford lose

#1 Alabama
#2 Oklahoma
#3 MSU/Iowa
#4 UNC

Scenario 4 (6% chance): Clemson wins, Alabama and Stanford lose

#1 Clemson
#2 Oklahoma
#3 MSU/Iowa
#4 Ohio State

Scenario 5 (6% chance): Clemson and Stanford win, Alabama loses

#1 Clemson
#2 Oklahoma
#3 MSU/Iowa
#4 Stanford

Scenario 6 (5% chance): Stanford wins, Alabama and Clemson lose

#1 Oklahoma
#2 MSU/Iowa
#3 Stanford
#4 UNC

Scenario 7 (5% chance): Stanford, Alabama, and Clemson all lose

#1 Oklahoma
#2 MSU/Iowa
#3 UNC
#4 Ohio State or Clemson (50/50)

Cumulative chances of being in playoffs:

Oklahoma (100%)
Alabama (78%)
MSU (64%)
Clemson (61%)
Iowa (36%)
Stanford (27%)
UNC (26%)
Ohio State (9%)

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I cant see any scenario where OSU makes it. Not one.

Their schedule was very weak and they didnt win their division. UNC also had a weak schedule but would be conference champs with a better win than OSU's in Ann Arbor. OSU cant get in over UNC.

OSU cant get in over Clemson either. Clemson owns 2 great wins over FSU and ND. OSU: just 1

OSU cant get in over 11-2 Stanford.

OSU cant get in over Iowa/MSU.

Theoretically, even if Clemson, Bama, and Stanford all lose, even 11-2 SEC Champ Florida would probably make it over OSU. They'd have the best win and the prestige of being "SEC Champions." It would be impossible for an 11-2 SEC Champ to get left out of a 4 team playoff in favor of a team who couldnt win the Big Ten East.

And people are forgetting that OSU also cant make it over an 11-2 MSU team. Even if they lose to Iowa, they would have a head to head win in Columbus with a 3rd string QB. OSU cant jump them.

If everybody loses, it would be:

1. Oklahoma
2. Iowa/MSU
3. UNC
4. Florida
5. Clemson
6. Alabama
7. Ohio State

 

[ThePanthers]

I doubt Florida would get in. They have not looked great and do not look like a complete team.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

I doubt Florida would get in. They have not looked great and do not look like a complete team.

Maybe but who would get in then if everybody loses?

"Preference given to conference champions"

 

[UPitt '89]

Maybe but who would get in then if everybody loses?

"Preference given to conference champions"

Ironically, in that scenario, the ACC could get two teams. It would be down to 1-loss Clemson, 1-loss OSU, and 2-loss Florida (and 1-loss Iowa or 2-loss MSU, technically).

 

[ThePanthers]

Maybe but who would get in then if everybody loses?

"Preference given to conference champions"

tOSU.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

tOSU.

How does OSU get in over 12-1 Clemson?

 

[cke66edy]

If UNC wins, does that bounce FSU or ND from New Years six? Is it possible that UNC, Clemson, FSU and ND all are playing in New Years six? If so, who is Russell contractually obligated to take?

 

[ThePanthers]

If UNC wins, does that bounce FSU or ND from New Years six? Is it possible that UNC, Clemson, FSU and ND all are playing in New Years six? If so, who is Russell contractually obligated to take?

I think only two will get in. If Clemson wins, I think Clemson and FSU will be in the NY6 bowl. Possibly ND.

If UNC wins, I think UNC and Clemson will get in the NY6 bowls.

Remember, there are only 3 at large bids this year.

Orange = host playoff
Cotton = host playoff
Sugar = Big XII vs SEC
Rose = Big 10 vs Pac 12
Peach = at large vs at large
Fiesta = at large vs at large

One group of 5 team gets one of those at large bids, so that is only 3.

I'm sure some combination of the Big 10 champ loser, ACC champ loser/ACC champ if it's UNC and they don't make the playoff, and ND will be a part of that, plus possibly tOSU.

Russell will probably take ND if they are available, if not, UNC if they lose, FSU if UNC wins.

 

[ThePanthers]

How does OSU get in over 12-1 Clemson?

The committee selects them. I can't see Clemson getting in if UNC doesn't.

 

[cke66edy]

I think only two will get in. If Clemson wins, I think Clemson and FSU will be in the NY6 bowl. Possibly ND.

If UNC wins, I think UNC and Clemson will get in the NY6 bowls.

Remember, there are only 3 at large bids this year.

Orange = host playoff
Cotton = host playoff
Sugar = Big XII vs SEC
Rose = Big 10 vs Pac 12
Peach = at large vs at large
Fiesta = at large vs at large

One group of 5 team gets one of those at large bids, so that is only 3.

I'm sure some combination of the Big 10 champ loser, ACC champ loser/ACC champ if it's UNC and they don't make the playoff, and ND will be a part of that, plus possibly tOSU.

Russell will probably take ND if they are available, if not, UNC if they lose, FSU if UNC wins.

Thanks. Makes sense. One from Iowa, MSU, OSU (other two are Rose and playoff) leaves only two at-large. One of the four (including ND) have to play in the Russell.

 

[Pittx9]

Conference champs. OSU is basically eliminated unless about 5 or so teams lose. I think if Stanford beats USC, they have a better chance of sneaking in than OSU if some upsets happen. Ohio State a) did not win their division even and b) has only the Michigan victory to claim as a quality win.

 

[upj87]

I cant see any scenario where OSU makes it. Not one.

Their schedule was very weak and they didnt win their division. UNC also had a weak schedule but would be conference champs with a better win than OSU's in Ann Arbor. OSU cant get in over UNC.

OSU cant get in over Clemson either. Clemson owns 2 great wins over FSU and ND. OSU: just 1

OSU cant get in over 11-2 Stanford.

OSU cant get in over Iowa/MSU.

Theoretically, even if Clemson, Bama, and Stanford all lose, even 11-2 SEC Champ Florida would probably make it over OSU. They'd have the best win and the prestige of being "SEC Champions." It would be impossible for an 11-2 SEC Champ to get left out of a 4 team playoff in favor of a team who couldnt win the Big Ten East.

And people are forgetting that OSU also cant make it over an 11-2 MSU team. Even if they lose to Iowa, they would have a head to head win in Columbus with a 3rd string QB. OSU cant jump them.

If everybody loses, it would be:

1. Oklahoma
2. Iowa/MSU
3. UNC
4. Florida
5. Clemson
6. Alabama
7. Ohio State

OSU cant get in over 11-2 Stanford"..says who? Do you think Stanford would beat Ohio State on a neutral field?

 

[UPitt '89]

OSU cant get in over 11-2 Stanford"..says who? Do you think Stanford would beat Ohio State on a neutral field?

A. My answer to that is yes. Having watched almost every OSU game this year and having watched Stanford 4 or 5 times, I think Stanford would win that game on a neutral field.

B. It doesn't matter. I don't think Iowa could beat Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma, OR Stanford on a neutral field.... but they will be in the playoff if they win this week. Making the playoff has everything to do with a team's resume - according to the committee - and nothing to do with a mythical "I think they're better" test.

Ohio State currently has the worst resume of any 1-loss P5 team. And it isn't close. 61st hardest schedule, only one win against a ranked team (Michigan).... only two GAMES against ranked teams (Michigan and MSU).

And "eye test" wise... Ohio State struggled to win a lot of their first 10 games against decidedly MUCH inferior competition.

In any blind resume test, Ohio State resume ranks around the same as UNC's right now.... and would be worse than UNC's if the Tarheels beat Clemson.

 

[Sean Miller Fan]

For the 3 at-larges,

1. Iowa/MSU/OSU. 1 goes to CFP, 1 goes to Rose. 1 goes to Fiesta or Peach

Either FSU, ND, Baylor, or TCU. 2 of those 4.

If Clemson or Bama lose, those 2 get the at-larges. Basically, the ACC/ND is assured of 2 NY6 bowls with a good chance of 4.

Funny thing is, how would you like to earn a NY6 bowl and be awarded a game with freaking Temple?