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Incredibly, Lunardi still has Pitt in

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Sean Miller Fan

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Men's Bracketology: Let's talk about

Forget Gonzaga, Memphis, San Diego State, Dayton -- the truest and best mid-major in the country is Saint Mary's.
www.espn.com

Updated after few hours ago. Nobody gets off on non-conference SOS like this dude and that could be our saving grace. Also, the bubble is pretty weak right now and I know Joe will come and say the bubble is always weak. Not always. It wasn't last year even before the bid stealers.

I dont know how he can have Pitt so far ahead of Wake. And here comes Arkansas. They won a game and that may be all it takes for the SEC to get 14/16.

This weeks bubble games

MWC
Tue - USU @ Wyo
Wed - CSU @ UNM

SEC
Tue - Vandy @ Fla
Wed - Arky @ Texas
Wed - LSU @ UGa

B10
Tue - USC @ NW
Wed - Neb @ Wash
Thu - Md @ OSU

B12
Tue - KST @ ASU
Tue - AZ @ BYU
Wed - Cincy @ UCF

ACC
Wed - SMU @ VT
Wed - Wake @ Stan

Big East
Tue - Gtown @ Xavier
 
He updated via twitter to first four out after reevaluating this morning lol. His ESPN post was probably due late last night.

 
mike10003 said:
He updated via twitter to first four out after reevaluating this morning lol. His ESPN post was probably due late last night.

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I dont know why he does this. His website update was 10:30 this morning. They he "re-evaluated" an hour or 2 later and posts it on Twitter and doesn't update the website. Even still, being 3rd out is better than I thought. I figured near the bottom of Next 4 Out.
 
KennyTheKangaroo said:
Projections are useless at this point on unless we go on some crazy win streak.

And we will not go on a crazy win streak
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Projections are always useless. What matters is where a team sits on selection day, and no other time. These guys have an industry which is of no real value, other than to their bank accounts.
 
He has UNC and SMU as his next four out as well. So needless to say the games at North Carolina on Saturday and at SMU next Tuesday could very well determine Pitt’s tournament fate. They really need to win both after the Virginia debacle last night.
 
Sean Miller Fan said:
I know Joe will come and say the bubble is always weak. Not always. It wasn't last year even before the bid stealers.
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Last year Virginia, Boise State, Colorado State, Colorado, Texas A&M and Michigan State all made the tournament. They were all thoroughly mediocre. The other three first four out teams were Oklahoma, Seton Hall and Indiana State. Not a good team in the bunch.
 
Joe the Panther Fan said:
Last year Virginia, Boise State, Colorado State, Colorado, Texas A&M and Michigan State all made the tournament. They were all thoroughly mediocre. The other three first four out teams were Oklahoma, Seton Hall and Indiana State. Not a good team in the bunch.
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Again, you dont get it. I dont mean it to say these are Final Four contenders. I mean that their resumes are better than a normal bubble year. For example, Pitt, SMU, and UNC with a combined 2 Q1 wins and NETs in the 40s shouldn't be that close to getting in. But they are right there.
 
Sean Miller Fan said:
Again, you dont get it. I dont mean it to say these are Final Four contenders. I mean that their resumes are better than a normal bubble year. For example, Pitt, SMU, and UNC with a combined 2 Q1 wins and NETs in the 40s shouldn't be that close to getting in. But they are right there.
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It's almost as if the number of Q1 wins and a team's NET ranking aren't the only two important things. Who knew?

Oh, wait, pretty much everyone other than you knew.

Only you could argue that numerous teams gamed the system and made the tournament even though they weren't actually any good and simultaneously argue that those teams made up the toughest bubble ever. Either all those Mountain West teams actually were good, or the bubble was, as always, weak. It literally cannot be both.
 
Joe the Panther Fan said:
It's almost as if the number of Q1 wins and a team's NET ranking aren't the only two important things. Who knew?

Oh, wait, pretty much everyone other than you knew.

Only you could argue that numerous teams gamed the system and made the tournament even though they weren't actually any good and simultaneously argue that those teams made up the toughest bubble ever. Either all those Mountain West teams actually were good, or the bubble was, as always, weak. It literally cannot be both.
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MWC teams sucked but their NETs and Q1 wins were outstanding....due to gaming of course. But I count those teams as making the bubble strong, not because they are good, but because their gamed resumes were good.
 
Sean Miller Fan said:
MWC teams sucked but their NETs and Q1 wins were outstanding....due to gaming of course. But I count those teams as making the bubble strong, not because they are good, but because their gamed resumes were good.
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Ah, see, now it makes more sense. Most people would say that lots of teams that aren't very good making the field and being on the bubble makes the bubble weak, but you think that lots of teams that suck getting into the field and being on the bubble is what makes it strong.

It's SMF "logic".
 
Joe the Panther Fan said:
Ah, see, now it makes more sense. Most people would say that lots of teams that aren't very good making the field and being on the bubble makes the bubble weak, but you think that lots of teams that suck getting into the field and being on the bubble is what makes it strong.

It's SMF "logic".
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Resumes are what makes it strong because the committee looks at numbers and don't watch the teams play. One of the reasons that the bubble is weaker this year is that last year, the MWC had 5 locks plus UNM winning the tourney to give them 6. This year, they have no locks and can get anywhere from 1 to 3 in.
 
Sean Miller Fan said:
www.espn.com

Men's Bracketology: Let's talk about

Forget Gonzaga, Memphis, San Diego State, Dayton -- the truest and best mid-major in the country is Saint Mary's.
www.espn.com

Updated after few hours ago. Nobody gets off on non-conference SOS like this dude and that could be our saving grace. Also, the bubble is pretty weak right now and I know Joe will come and say the bubble is always weak. Not always. It wasn't last year even before the bid stealers.

I dont know how he can have Pitt so far ahead of Wake. And here comes Arkansas. They won a game and that may be all it takes for the SEC to get 14/16.

This weeks bubble games

MWC
Tue - USU @ Wyo
Wed - CSU @ UNM

SEC
Tue - Vandy @ Fla
Wed - Arky @ Texas
Wed - LSU @ UGa

B10
Tue - USC @ NW
Wed - Neb @ Wash
Thu - Md @ OSU

B12
Tue - KST @ ASU
Tue - AZ @ BYU
Wed - Cincy @ UCF

ACC
Wed - SMU @ VT
Wed - Wake @ Stan

Big East
Tue - Gtown @ Xavier
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Really good Tuesday
NW over USC
Florida over Vandy
KSt over ASU
AZ over BYU
Wisconsin over Indiana (but IU really isnt that close
Auburn by 28 over Oklahoma

The bubble teams who won were Xavier and Utah State.

This Pitt team is still right there. If we can win at UNC, we are probably back in the field for the moment. Do I think we will win?. No. Some teams improve throughout the season and some teams get worse. Last year's Pitt team was much better in Feb/Mar than earlier. This year's GT team is the same way having won 3 of 4 including vs Lou and @ Clemson. They outrebounded Clemson by 10 and rebounded 24 of their 48 misses.
 
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Jerry Palm on CBS has Pitt as the last team in the field in his latest bracket updates late yesterday afternoon. So both him Lunardi somehow still have Pitt in the tournament.
 
Sean Miller Fan said:
Wisconsin over Indiana (but IU really isnt that close
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Wisconsin is a lot better than Virginia, but Indiana saw our game on Monday and said hey, let's try that. They were down 19-2 to start the game, and 26-4 seven minutes into the game. The closest they got the rest of the way was 12.

Another thing that I would have never guessed. Wisconsin has now won 21 home game in a row against Indiana. Indiana's last win at Wisconsin was in 1998. Other than non-traditional students, there are no Indiana students who were alive the last time Indiana beat Wisconsin at Wisconsin.
 
Joe the Panther Fan said:
Wisconsin is a lot better than Virginia, but Indiana saw our game on Monday and said hey, let's try that. They were down 19-2 to start the game, and 26-4 seven minutes into the game. The closest they got the rest of the way was 12.

Another thing that I would have never guessed. Wisconsin has now won 21 home game in a row against Indiana. Indiana's last win at Wisconsin was in 1998. Other than non-traditional students, there are no Indiana students who were alive the last time Indiana beat Wisconsin at Wisconsin.
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That’s insane. Bo Ryan wasn’t even the coach in 2001 and it seemed like he was there foreeeever
 
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Joe the Panther Fan said:
Wisconsin is a lot better than Virginia, but Indiana saw our game on Monday and said hey, let's try that. They were down 19-2 to start the game, and 26-4 seven minutes into the game. The closest they got the rest of the way was 12.

Another thing that I would have never guessed. Wisconsin has now won 21 home game in a row against Indiana. Indiana's last win at Wisconsin was in 1998. Other than non-traditional students, there are no Indiana students who were alive the last time Indiana beat Wisconsin at Wisconsin.
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That's an insane streak. Even moreso than Clemson 13 in a row over Pitt. Those 4 programs are too similar to each other to warrant that type of dominance.

Also, how bout this huge home UCF loss to Cincy? Pitt would probably have something like a 50%-60% chance to make the NCAAT if they announced it tonight as bad as we've played. While this is all good, the fact remains we do not LOOK like an NCAAT team right now so it's hard to imagine we can go 7-2.
 
Sean Miller Fan said:
That's an insane streak. Even moreso than Clemson 13 in a row over Pitt. Those 4 programs are too similar to each other to warrant that type of dominance.
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Duke had something like a 22 game winning streak at home against Clemson that just ended, I believe, last year. But that's at least somewhat understandable because Duke is usually really good and Clemson is usually, well, not. There have certainly been a lot of those 21 Wisconsin-Indiana games when Indiana has been the better team, sometimes by a pretty good margin.
 
Bad bubble night for Pitt

SMU, Wake, Arkansas, and Georgia win. UCF and Nebraska did lose.

The SMU and Wake wins were really problematic for Pitt because both games were very close the whole game until the last 2 minutes. SMU avoided a Q3 loss at VT, which would have essentially put them behind Pitt. And Wake's win knocked Stanford to Q2. We lost 2 Q2 wins yesterday. Stanford and Syr wins dropped to Q3. But even if Stanford moves back up, that would be a Q1 win for Wake.

I dont know how you could have us over Wake at this point but a few people do. I wouldn't and that's not even looking at head to head.

Watching Stanford and SMU is fun because those teams run great offense. Lots of passing, cutting, and a variance of how they get baskets. Neither team has players as offensively talent as Pitt but are extremely well coached. Without counting Scheyer, Enfield, Smith, and Kelsey are the 3 best coaches in the ACC. No chance we beat SMU. Not sure we beat UNC but I feel we have a chance there. SMU is too well-coached.

For Pitt, it's pretty simple. Beat 2 bubble teams in the next 5 days and you probably make the NCAA Tournament. But for this team at this time, that seems very unlikely. In fact, Pitt's odds to make the NCAA Tournament dropped to -800. They were a +100 something before the Wake game.
 
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Sean Miller Fan said:
Bad bubble night for Pitt

SMU, Wake, Arkansas, and Georgia win. UCF and Nebraska did lose.

The SMU and Wake wins were really problematic for Pitt because both games were very close the whole game until the last 2 minutes. SMU avoided a Q3 loss at VT, which would have essentially put them behind Pitt. And Wake's win knocked Stanford to Q2. We lost 2 Q2 wins yesterday. Stanford and Syr wins dropped to Q3. But even if Stanford moves back up, that would be a Q1 win for Wake.

I dont know how you could have us over Wake at this point but a few people do. I wouldn't and that's not even looking at head to head.

Watching Stanford and SMU is fun because those teams run great offense. Lots of passing, cutting, and a variance of how they get baskets. Neither team has players as offensively talent as Pitt but are extremely well coached. Without counting Scheyer, Enfield, Smith, and Kelsey are the 3 best coaches in the ACC. No chance we beat SMU. Not sure we beat UNC but I feel we have a chance there. SMU is too well-coached.

For Pitt, it's pretty simple. Beat 2 bubble teams in the next 5 days and you probably make the NCAA Tournament. But for this team at this time, that seems very unlikely. In fact, Pitt's odds to make the NCAA Tournament dropped to -800. They were a +100 something before the Wake game.
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Yea the season comes down to the games at UNC and SMU. I think Pitt needs both games but you better at least win one if you’re the Panthers. Winning only one might drop them to first four out but they will still have a shot to make it. Losing both games would make it extremely tough for Pitt to get in. We will see the mental toughness of this Pitt team in the next two games and how well Capel can get them to respond to that disaster Monday night against Virginia.
 
Blair_45 said:
Yea the season comes down to the games at UNC and SMU. I think Pitt needs both games but you better at least win one if you’re the Panthers. Winning only one might drop them to first four out but they will still have a shot to make it. Losing both games would make it extremely tough for Pitt to get in. We will see the mental toughness of this Pitt team in the next two games and how well Capel can get them to respond to that disaster Monday night against Virginia.
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I still think 6-2 gets us in so we can go 1-2 vs UNC, SMU, Lou and then beat ND, NCSU and the 4 home games. Probably going to go 10-10 though, maybe 9-11. Not a very good team right now. We never could defend or rebound but out offense has gone away now too as we are too reliant on Lowe and Leggett finishing in the paint. No easy offensive rebound baskets. Kick-out for 3s haven't worked. Everything has run dry.
 
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Looks like Lunardi dropped Pitt to next four out in his latest Twitter post. He still has them as last 4 in on the bracketology though and so does Jerry Palm.
 
Blair_45 said:
Looks like Lunardi dropped Pitt to next four out in his latest Twitter post. He still has them as last 4 in on the bracketology though and so does Jerry Palm.
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It really seems like Lunardi is going full SMF this season. He posts one thing on the web site, and then a couple hours later, with no more games being played, he puts something different on twitter. Got to cover all the bases.

And then sometimes he completely forgets a team, like he did with UCF a week or two ago.
 
Joe the Panther Fan said:
That is correct. -800 means you have to bet 800 to win 100. A team that is -800 is a huge favorite. +100 means even money, bet 100 to win 100.
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The "No" answer is -800. A $100 bet on Pitt to miss the NCAA Tournament would win you $12.50 if they do miss it.

Before the Wake game, the "no" was +100 something.
 
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