Interesting article on Big 12 future with OU and Texas leaving.
- Thread starter pandarod
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The ACC has to be doing everything in its power to get Texas and ND to join.
I would even go so far as allowing ND to keep their NBC contract and Texas to keep LHN but Texas wouldn't share any ACC Network revenue.
Texas aint going to the Pac 12. No way they go west, 2 time zones away. That hurts their national brand. They aint going to the SEC. A&M is there, its too difficult a league, and they view themselves too superior academically to be playing with cheating football factories. For Texas, its ACC vs Big Ten. They'll make more money in the Big Ten but they wont be allowed to keep their network.....and its unknown if ND would also join the Big Ten. Texas wants to be associated with ND.
I would even go so far as allowing ND to keep their NBC contract and Texas to keep LHN but Texas wouldn't share any ACC Network revenue.
Texas aint going to the Pac 12. No way they go west, 2 time zones away. That hurts their national brand. They aint going to the SEC. A&M is there, its too difficult a league, and they view themselves too superior academically to be playing with cheating football factories. For Texas, its ACC vs Big Ten. They'll make more money in the Big Ten but they wont be allowed to keep their network.....and its unknown if ND would also join the Big Ten. Texas wants to be associated with ND.
I have to say, if the ACC could pull that off, they become a major power broker. I am sure the contract the ACC can then generate TV wise would preclude the possibility of teams being pulled away from the Big 10.
A couple points:
* Like it not, the Big 10 won the era of big time $$$ from cable networks. Just the way it is, they had the best demographics (the cornerstone MAJOR programs with OSU and Michigan and the overall advantage of having schools in non-pro team areas/northern schools where there is more centralization, integration,loyalty, identification with major universities) AND had the foresight and aggressiveness to go for the gold. The SEC is the next in regard to loyalty and identification with its programs. Those two are on a level above the other three leagues.
* As others noted in the other thread, this era is reaching its peak and the dynamics ARE going to change relative to cable/bundling vs streaming.
* The ACC still has to find a way to get into current game (cable package) but the race is now to best position for streaming.
* Going back to the last round of "expansion" the dynamics remain the same - SEC & Big 10 are the big predators and the Pac is next in line. The dynamics then, as they were for years prior AND NOW, are that while the drone from Fox and general bravado of the league itself, while the ACC is made to be the wounded gazelle, the Big 12 is the most vulnerable league. It has the most malevolent internal factor (Texas), the weakest demographics and most challenging geography.
* This plays out in reality - Big 12 has had far more schools jump ship, and the last round of expansion saw the ACC do INFINITELY better than the Big 12, Louisville and Pitt, with ND half in vs WVU. What remains for the Big 12 to bring in are programs that are lesser than the last round and not great geographic fits.
* The ACC has some real assets in all of this, but also has some limitations that makes it vulnerable. It would seem the nature of things that this will move toward four major conferences over time, how long that time is who knows. There probably will be nibbling around, the Big 12 maybe adding some of these fringy programs that they are being associated with. The game changers are ND if they every throw all in, Texas and to a lesser extent Oklahoma. The dynamics REALLY change if they do something.
* Like it not, the Big 10 won the era of big time $$$ from cable networks. Just the way it is, they had the best demographics (the cornerstone MAJOR programs with OSU and Michigan and the overall advantage of having schools in non-pro team areas/northern schools where there is more centralization, integration,loyalty, identification with major universities) AND had the foresight and aggressiveness to go for the gold. The SEC is the next in regard to loyalty and identification with its programs. Those two are on a level above the other three leagues.
* As others noted in the other thread, this era is reaching its peak and the dynamics ARE going to change relative to cable/bundling vs streaming.
* The ACC still has to find a way to get into current game (cable package) but the race is now to best position for streaming.
* Going back to the last round of "expansion" the dynamics remain the same - SEC & Big 10 are the big predators and the Pac is next in line. The dynamics then, as they were for years prior AND NOW, are that while the drone from Fox and general bravado of the league itself, while the ACC is made to be the wounded gazelle, the Big 12 is the most vulnerable league. It has the most malevolent internal factor (Texas), the weakest demographics and most challenging geography.
* This plays out in reality - Big 12 has had far more schools jump ship, and the last round of expansion saw the ACC do INFINITELY better than the Big 12, Louisville and Pitt, with ND half in vs WVU. What remains for the Big 12 to bring in are programs that are lesser than the last round and not great geographic fits.
* The ACC has some real assets in all of this, but also has some limitations that makes it vulnerable. It would seem the nature of things that this will move toward four major conferences over time, how long that time is who knows. There probably will be nibbling around, the Big 12 maybe adding some of these fringy programs that they are being associated with. The game changers are ND if they every throw all in, Texas and to a lesser extent Oklahoma. The dynamics REALLY change if they do something.
Notre Dame will have less incentive to join a conference once the CFP moves to 8 teams. They will not be restricted access to the playoffs at any point, they're too much of a money maker for the networks.
That will always be the big obstacle for the ACC to become a true power on the level with the Big Ten. Notre Dame won't join, so Texas won't come. Most likely, it'll be Texas and Oklahoma to the Big Ten together. SEC will then pick off Kansas and one other - probably Baylor or Oklahoma State, but WVU outside shot. Adding a marquee hoops program like Kansas would benefit the SEC Network enough to take on the weak football program.
Pac 12 might not think any of the leftovers are worth expanding for, so, say the SEC takes Kansas/OK State, the Big XII would probably replace the lost 4 with Cincinnati, Memphis, UCF, USF, Houston, and either Tulsa or BYU. The American back fills with what's leftover in Conference USA.
A result of all of this might be that Connecticut drops football and heads back to the Big East. The ACC isn't taking them now, the only way they expand is if Notre Dame (and/or Texas) want in, but that's not happening. With Texas/Oklahoma in the fold, the Big Ten isn't likely to reach for UConn, and they're too far isolated for the Big XII.
That will always be the big obstacle for the ACC to become a true power on the level with the Big Ten. Notre Dame won't join, so Texas won't come. Most likely, it'll be Texas and Oklahoma to the Big Ten together. SEC will then pick off Kansas and one other - probably Baylor or Oklahoma State, but WVU outside shot. Adding a marquee hoops program like Kansas would benefit the SEC Network enough to take on the weak football program.
Pac 12 might not think any of the leftovers are worth expanding for, so, say the SEC takes Kansas/OK State, the Big XII would probably replace the lost 4 with Cincinnati, Memphis, UCF, USF, Houston, and either Tulsa or BYU. The American back fills with what's leftover in Conference USA.
A result of all of this might be that Connecticut drops football and heads back to the Big East. The ACC isn't taking them now, the only way they expand is if Notre Dame (and/or Texas) want in, but that's not happening. With Texas/Oklahoma in the fold, the Big Ten isn't likely to reach for UConn, and they're too far isolated for the Big XII.
acc is not getting ND or Oklahoma, texas or anyone else.. Come on guys, be real here for a sec.. We have nothing to offer that the other conferences don't have.. Texas leaving to come to the ACC, jesus you guys are something else.
Texas to the big 10 would be pretty cool. Oklahoma to the SEC, meh, who cares.. Imagine texas playing Michigan, msu, tosu every year? that would be fun to watch..
Texas to the big 10 would be pretty cool. Oklahoma to the SEC, meh, who cares.. Imagine texas playing Michigan, msu, tosu every year? that would be fun to watch..
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The SEC is not taking Kansas or Baylor, come on. If they lose Texas or OU to the B10 or ACC, they are coming after the NC and VA schools.
The first domino is Texas. Where they go, shapes everything else. If they choose the ACC, the ACC is alive and well. If they choose the Big Ten, I'd expect the Big Ten to take 4 ACC schools to get to 20 (along with Texas Tech), probably the southern quartet of FSU, Miamo, GT, Clemson. But, those schools would prefer the SEC.
Its an interesting chess match. The SEC doesnt want the ACC Southern Quartet but doesnt want the Big Ten to take them. I could see the SEC taking the southern quartet and VT, UVa, UNC, NCSU to get to 22. Big Ten goes with Texas, TT, OU, OKST.
Swoffy has some work to do.
if texas chooses acc over big 10, the decision makers should get drug tested immediately. I am not talking marijuana either, but that synthetic chemical crap that white trash people make in their tub, the crap that makes you stay awake for 125 hours straight and scratch your skin so hard it comes off of your face..
ND loves their independence, absolutely no need at all to join. Their secondary sports are covered. I've been hearing for decades how they will eventually be forced to join a conference, they'll be left out if not. yeah, sure they will. It won't happen but it would be cool to see Texas go independent too. They are one of the very few schools that could do it.. Big 12, as much as they won't admit it, would keep all non football programs in conference I bet..
UNC and Virginia aren't going SEC and I don't think VT or NC State are more valuable than Kansas. Hoops generally doesn't move the needle, except in special cases such as adding a second historical program to Kentucky. That does add value. Adding OK State gives them a western wall that bridges Texas (A&M), Oklahoma (State), Kansas, and Missouri. Kansas also provides Missouri with their natural rival and possibly some incentive to not jump to the Big Ten if ever offered. Finally, adding two western teams allows them to realign and even up the divisions a bit, perhaps getting LSU into the SEC East to setup a situation where that division becomes very competitive again.
At any rate, the Big Ten would triumph again with an East that includes tOSU, Michigan, Michigan State, and Penn State; and a West that includes Texas, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, and Nebraska. Huge names on each side.
The ACC offers Texas access to more media markets than the Big Ten.
The ACC may allow Texas to keep LHN in exchange for not sharing any ACCN revenue so its more fair than their B12 agreement. No way the B10 allows them that.
The key is Notre Dame. Texas will follow Notre Dame. If Notre Dame stays independent, then the ACC can adjust their football affiliation to benefit Texas such as allowing ND to choose which 5 ACC teams to play so that they play Texas more often.
A league like the ACC has to bend a little for teams like Notre Dame, Texas, even Florida State.
Sean
I agree that the ACC isn't dealing from a power broker position. But to offer
Texas the same deal as Notre Dame would be a mistake. We all saw what Notre
Dame's deal with the Big East lead to. It is bad enough that the ACC acclimated
to it again. I would hope that Swaffold doesn't make the same mistake with Texas.
I'm fine with Texas keeping their tv package as long as they don't get a share of the
ACC package.
Swaffold was a snake when dealing with the Big East. I hope he still has some of that
slime to deal with Texas and get them to jump to the ACC.
I agree that the ACC isn't dealing from a power broker position. But to offer
Texas the same deal as Notre Dame would be a mistake. We all saw what Notre
Dame's deal with the Big East lead to. It is bad enough that the ACC acclimated
to it again. I would hope that Swaffold doesn't make the same mistake with Texas.
I'm fine with Texas keeping their tv package as long as they don't get a share of the
ACC package.
Swaffold was a snake when dealing with the Big East. I hope he still has some of that
slime to deal with Texas and get them to jump to the ACC.
The Big Ten would likely work with ESPN to rebrand the LHN into a second Big Ten Network and get wider distribution for the channel, meaning more cash for everyone. I'm sure Fox and Texas would have to be compensated but they'd work it out.
You really love this stuff don't you? Why?
Never underestimate how badly Texas likes to be the Big Fish in a little pond. Tough to do with Michigan and Ohio State. The ACC would not surprise me.
OK, so lets say Texas's choices are:
1. Big Ten with LHN rebranded as BTN2 with all BT members getting equal shares of it
Or
2. ACC with Texas keeping LHN as it is and all its revenue but not sharing in ACC Network revenue.
You tell me what they choose? Its more than money for Texas. They want to keep and grow their network. Heck, they can even come to some agreement that MOST of Texas's ACC games are on LHN.....but also simulcast on ACC Network in local markets. Example: Pitt @ Texas is on LHN......but in PA, its on ACC Network instead of GT @ NCSU.
The ACC could give Texas a great opportunity to grow their network. It would be a no-brainer for Texas but would power brokers like FSU go for it when theu can move to the Big Ten tomorrow if they wanted.
I dont think we should give Texas the 5 game independent deal like ND unless it was a last resort but I do think that true blue bloods like ND and Texas are special cases. The ACC should bend for these programs. Its OK.
FSU spoke to the BIG 10 in 2010 and were told no. FSU didn't have the options they thought they had during that time.
Seriously, relax.
Apparently so... In addition, every scenario presented will have Pitt in dire straights, headed for doom, and in grave danger of extinction...
If the LHN gets rebranded at BTN2, with equal shares, it ceases being the LHN.....what don't you get about that?
NC state will be the newest member of the SEC
Anyone dismissing Texas to the Pac 12 isn't paying attention.
Anyone dismissing Texas to the Pac 12 isn't paying attention.
it sounded like it was real close to happening in 2010.. Ok state and WVU to the ACC would be sweet..
It's way more likely that Texas would look to do a ND like arrangement with a conference rather than affiliate with anyone. They already see themselves as an independent in many regards. That's the only way they're coming to the ACC and I personally would be okay with that.
Oklahoma would be more comfortable out west and the way the TV works in the Pac 12, it makes sense for them. But they could also try out the B1G too. Already have Nebraska as a neighbor but in that case, they'd have to bring a Texas school with them. Doubt it would matter who as long as the B1G network can throw it's weight around. Heck of a lot of TV's down there.
There's a good bit of smoke here. You've got four or five schools throwing themselves at the Big 12 and it's not a secret that Texas isn't that interested in expansion. Texas Tech tends to stick by Texas because of old allegiances. If Oklahoma is that unhappy and is openly looking, it means somebody is going to try to force someone's hand and that will blow up the Big 12 as we know it.
Oklahoma would be more comfortable out west and the way the TV works in the Pac 12, it makes sense for them. But they could also try out the B1G too. Already have Nebraska as a neighbor but in that case, they'd have to bring a Texas school with them. Doubt it would matter who as long as the B1G network can throw it's weight around. Heck of a lot of TV's down there.
There's a good bit of smoke here. You've got four or five schools throwing themselves at the Big 12 and it's not a secret that Texas isn't that interested in expansion. Texas Tech tends to stick by Texas because of old allegiances. If Oklahoma is that unhappy and is openly looking, it means somebody is going to try to force someone's hand and that will blow up the Big 12 as we know it.
ESPN isn't going to dedicate two channels to one conference. What would likely happen if Texas did go to the ACC, and the ACC did let them keep their network, is that the LHN would become a pseudo ACC Network, with mostly Texas stuff, but also a few non-Texas ACC games and shows.
Texas to the Big Ten with LHN rebranded to BTN2 and Texas getting a sizable check (and Fox getting a check as well) is much more likely.
If there's ever an ACC Network, I would guess it's a standalone app that you'd pay maybe $10 per month for - similar to WWE Network. Or bundled together as part of all ESPN (ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNnews, U, Classic, SEC, ACC) for like $20 per month. I think the time has passed for getting an ACC Network on cable. Maybe I'm wrong, but this thing has been stalled for far too long to make me believe it's coming.
What dont you understand? Texas isnt giving up LHN. That isn't happening. To say that Texas will agree to rebrand as BTN2 is a little nuts. And you think if they did that, OSU will allow Texas to draw more money from BTN2 than the Buckeyes?
Texas is married to LHN and their 2 primary concerns are keeping that network and having an affiliation with ND.
The fact that the ACC seems happy to drag it's feet on a network or TV deal also fits in with this theory. Some sort of hybrid arrangement wouldn't be unworkable if there was enough cash. Plus Texas would get to play more games in the prime, east coast, time slots.
I honestly have no idea what's going to happen but Texas is Texas. Their fan base is tired of being a second class football power that is mired in the muck and the University can't be looking at Memphis, UCONN, and Cincy and feeling good about the future of the Big 12.
If the ACC could get TX with a ND type deal do you do it? I think you would have to because that would mean killing off your main competition and assuring yourself a spot at the table.
IDK ...
The ACC is probably playing with fire a bit with the ND thing as is, and ND is playing nice to an extent. Texas, they just don't play well with others. That said, I guess you could make the argument that you could probably kill the B12 by adding Texas, so while you probably going to have issues with them, and possibly your membership over time, it might be worth it.
Well FSU was ok with giving ND that deal so they might be ok with doing the same for TX. Remember when the ACC added ND as a partial member they got another 2 or 3 million per team. they could likely do the same with TX. Get another 3 million per team and another high profile bowl game. But most importantly they could open the b12 up to being raided and that in turn would keep the ACC safe.
FSU's and Clemson's problem is they want in the SEC but the SEC isn't interested. The b10 isn't interested currently because they view the programs as to far away and not really good fits academically. They aren't interested in the B12. NC and VA are the programs that the b10 and SEC want. New markets, good schools and they are the dominate university in their states. But NC and VA are ACC original members and don't want to leave unless forced to. VA tech and NC state are the ones to watch in the ACC both of those programs could try to make a jump to leap frog their in state competition.
I believe that NC State can't just up and move to the SEC Since they're controlled by the same board of governors as UNC.
If the end game is 4 16 or more team conferences I think Pitt will be fine. If the ACC goes down I think Pitt would likely get a offer from the B12, with wvu likely pushing for Pitt to the surprise of fans of both teams. Remember Pitt generates very good tv ratings. Pitt was also asked by the ACC during the original expansion(miami,BC and VT) if they were interested and said NO. Also comments from Pitt after the last expansion make me believe Pitt was choice number 1 for the ACC this last time. Pitt stated that in several interviews/story's that the ACC asked Pitt who it thought would make a good addition and Pitt said WVU.
In addition to all of that. I believe there were rumblings here and other places that when the Big 12 approached Pitt before the ACC, Pitt had proposed a package of Pitt, WVU, and Ville to the Big 12. Ville and WVU were candidates for the SEC at the time and declined. The ACC came knocking and the rest they say is history.
Please someone correct me if I'm mistaken though.
Yeah OSU and MI aren't giving special treatment to anyone. They don't need to do that. They are already at the top of the heap revenue wise. I am sure they would welcome TX(and the states recruiting access) with open arms but they aren't giving them any special deals. Same with the SEC they are already the big dogs they won't give TX anything special. The pac 12 already said no to letting TX have the longhorn network but they may reconsider now that it looks like they could use the help in revenue and don't have any other options.
ACC is probably the one conference that makes sense for TX if they want some sort of special arrangement other than the conference TX is currently in. If the b12 pushes to much to close off TX advantage then TX is likely to take its ball and go home.
Would be similar to what happened in the cold war era with the soviets. Us supported Suddam to keep the russians out of the region. It somewhat backfired but it did keep the Russians out. Maybe you have to do the deal with TX to keep yourself safe and deal with the fallout afterwards.
