Interesting stuff from David Hale ESPN
- Thread starter pittmeister
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What Hales misses is that these teams are usually signing stud QBs every year. So if you only had 1 shot at the target, then 25% might be disheartening.
But when UGA is signing three straight 5* QBs, when Clemson is loading up on 5* QBs, etc., the chances of landing a stud starter becomes very high.
The fact that 5* Hunter Johnson is transferring from Clemson is irrelevant to Clemson. He's transferring because Trevor Lawrence has already come in and beat him out and might very well win the starting job, that's how big of a stud he is. And they have a pretty decently ranked 4* guy coming in this year.
When you're stacking chips, you're okay with losing a hand here and there.
But when UGA is signing three straight 5* QBs, when Clemson is loading up on 5* QBs, etc., the chances of landing a stud starter becomes very high.
The fact that 5* Hunter Johnson is transferring from Clemson is irrelevant to Clemson. He's transferring because Trevor Lawrence has already come in and beat him out and might very well win the starting job, that's how big of a stud he is. And they have a pretty decently ranked 4* guy coming in this year.
When you're stacking chips, you're okay with losing a hand here and there.
That is true, however for those schools who don't have the luxury of landing more than one 4 star QB it becomes problematic. We've had 4 star QB's like Voytik, Myers, Browne, and Bostick that didn't workout, but did hit on Palko, Peterman and Savage. For schools like Pitt, it's important to take a QB they like and think they can develop regardless of ranking. Pickett is a good example...
Maybe, but that's a separate point. And not the point Hale is making. Hale is trying to draw some point about "miss rate." But that's not what the evidence shows.
What's really crazy about Hale's numbers, and if you ran them at every position, is just how much the top programs are monopolizing the talent. It's pure Darwinian, "survival of the fittest" happening at the top programs in the the country.
Which is why they are beating everybody so badly every year. They take the best, and then only the best of the best survive. Well what type of team do you think you're going to field with the best of the best starting for you? One where Bama, Clemson, and Ohio State seem to make the college football playoffs every year. While the rest of us hope to just get bowl eligible.
That's the interesting take from Hale's numbers. Not the point he's making. But the consolidation of talent in a way we haven't seen since probably pre WWII in college football.
It just proves that Texas did a lot less with a lot more.
I get that, but regardless of his flawed logic, I look at the numbers and see how it effects Pitt and teams like them when recruiting 4 star QB's. It makes it very difficult. Based on what I see, this should be Pitt's M.O:
1. Duh....Try and land a 4 star QB.
2. Keep an eye on highly rated QB's that could be sitting behind other highly rated QB's for possible transfer options in the future; for example; Peterman, Savage, Town, etc... I believe that the staff has done a good job with that so far.
3. As I said in previous post the staff shouldn't disregard QB's that are not highly recruited. If they think they can develop him then they should take him. The QB and OL positions are the hardest to scout.
Social media and recruiting sites like Rivals has had a HUGE impact on this. I mean these young men, many of them are mature enough to evaluate programs and make the best decision for them based on opportunity. But, many of them just want the glitz and glam that goes along with signing with a Bama, Texas, Clemson, USC, etc. I mean have you seen the over-the-top circus Michigan puts on for there signing day?!?! I mean just a few of the "Celebs" they had on site.....Rick Flair, Derek Jeter, Lou Holtz, Jim Leyland, Mike Shanahan etc. Best part, they got Carhart to pay the tab on it. Why, because it will be watched by 200k+ on youtube
Yep and Pitt beat them on their home field the year they won the NC as an example of losing a hand but winning it all in the end.
Here I thought he was simply trying to point out how hard it is to recruit and develop a good QB, that Texas has done nothing with the recruits they've signed, and FSU has missed on a ton of WRs.
I thought he was continuing his crusade to prove he’s smart for pretending mediocre recruiting is okay for middling programs because they should never hope to do better.
I have no idea what his agenda is and frankly don't care. Everything he posted is accurate. Interpret it anyway you want.
"The Harder I work, the luckier I get". Gary Player.
"Chance favors the prepared mind". Louis Pastuer.
Ever notice how people who have had great luck always quickly dismiss it? It’s not exactly a strategy you want to hang your hat on but it does happen.
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